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Gatsby77
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Everything posted by Gatsby77
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? What was "implied?" @ChillMan stated it "had no marketing budget" - which was obviously hyperbole - but even so, both unwarranted and irrelevant. Unwarranted, because every available source points to its having a normal P&A budget (of ~$100M) for a $200+ million tentpole. And irrelevant, because the marketing budget (or lack thereof) is like 5th or 6th on the list of reasons the film failed.
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Likewise, one can't argue that audience awareness for this was low, because This was the *5th* film featuring Momoa as Aquaman The first film made over $1.1 billion The Johnny Depp / Amber Heard trial gave this oodles of publicity a full year+ before release - with countless articles questioning whether Heard's role would be diminished or eliminated No - audiences knew what this was - and simply opted out.
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Yes - estimates, but still an apples-to-apples comparison. Having a pre-release TV budget 1/3 less than the original is still a significant expense - and ~$30 million in pre-release TV advertising alone tracks with an overall worldwide marketing budget of $100M+.
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Yes, but when you make a claim as absurd as a $200 million tentpole having "no advertising budget," the burden of proof is on you to back it up. Here's another source, citing (or ummm...assuming) pre-release TV advertising alone: "Warner Bros. had a higher-than-average national TV ad budget heading into the opening -- $19.9 million from 1,250 airings resulting in 1.1 billion impressions, according to estimates from EDO Ad EnGage. The studio estimated TV spend was much higher the first time in 2018 [for the first Aquaman] -- a massive $29.6 million pre-opening (2,380 airings and 1.7 billion impressions). For the entire campaign that year, national TV totaled $35.5 million (3,840 airings and 2.47 billion)." https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/392171/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-treads-water-with.html
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Where are you getting that Aquaman 2 "had no advertising budget?" Variety reported that, while Warner Bros. decided to scale back on advertising, "it likely still cost $100 million." $100 million in advertising for a film costing $205-$215 million to produce seems on par.
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Kind of amazing that Wonka's only been out a week longer than Aquaman but is running 63% ahead of it domestically. And yesterday Wonka pulled in nearly 50% more than Aquaman did.
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Another 65% drop from week 3, from 11.1 million views to 3.9 million worldwide - dropping it to # 8 and leaving it 3 places (and 15%) behind...ummm... Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club.
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Oops. I'm wrong - forgot to account for tomorrow's being a holiday. Definitely will make more than $1 million tomorrow, and possibly next weekend as well. Because you're right - next weekend looks weak. Biggest new release seems to be (checks notes) Founder's Day??
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Let's all raise a glass to today's being this film's last $1 million day domestically. And pour one out for its making in its first 3 weeks what, once upon a time, Suicide Squad made in its first 2 days some 8 years ago.
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Worth it for the grain dialogue montage beginning at 2:11 alone
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And there we go. In week 3, Rebel Moon's global viewership fell from 34 million views to 11.1 million - a decline of 67%+ -- far steeper than that of Jupiter's Legacy. Oh - and it dropped off of the U.S. Top 10 list entirely.
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Why this matters? Our guy Luiz seems to be overestimating the film's legs. Expecting it to cross $100M domestic on Friday, only to see it do so on Sunday instead = not a great look. Especially when there's a bunch of new releases dropping this Friday, including The Beekeeper and the Mean Girls remake.
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? I said what I said. Last week, Luiz Fernando said it wouldn't hit $100M domestic before Jan. 5th - meaning he expected it to cross that line on Jan. 5th. I noted, or before "Jan. 6th or Jan. 7th" - meaning it was now likely to cross the $100M domestic mark on Jan. 7th - but not before. #ReadingIsFundamental
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Raise a glass to yesterday being Aquaman 2's last $4 million+ day domestically.
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Or Jan. 6th Or Jan. 7th, apparently.
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Worth reading: SFGATE Columnist Drew Magary's account of live blogging his viewing of Rebel Moon. Netflix's 'Rebel Moon' is one of the worst movies ever made Some select quotes: "“Rebel Moon” was originally pitched by Snyder as a “Star Wars” film, only a more “mature” one (“mature” in fanboy-ese meaning extra tits and , possibly with Leonard Cohen playing in the background to make those tits and asses feel more soulful). But then Netflix gave Snyder both the money (well over $150 million) and the carte blanche to make a “Rebel Moon” that existed in its own cinematic universe, one big enough to accommodate a sequel, an R-rated cut for 14-year-olds who haven’t discovered Pornhub yet, and maybe a spinoff series and even some licensed merchandise made exclusively by Ed Hardy." "At this point in the film, I pop a gummy to see if it’ll help even though I know it won’t." "All of the visuals look like a high-budget Scorpions video. The script is like if you assigned a dozen seventh graders 10 pages each. And the fight scenes are boring as s—t. The more of “Rebel Moon” I watch, the more running time I appear to have left. You should get your name on a wall for finishing this movie, like when you polish off the 96-ounce London broil at Jim Bob’s Steak Barn." "This movie doesn’t even have kitsch value, the way other awful films might. It’s just an incoherent, deadening mess. It’s a movie that shouldn’t be watched so much as it should be biopsied. The fact that it ends with the title card “END PART ONE” feels like a hostile threat more than anything exciting. If my bosses force me to watch Part Two, I will leave this job."
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How dare you malign Justice League! It was so successful, it's currently # 9 on Netflix's most-watched movies. Right above... Meg 2: The Trench. (Which is probably the closest we'll ever ever get to James Wan's The Trench.)
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Did we ever find out who he was supposed to be playing?
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We all saw Rebel Moon was Netflix's # 1 movie its first 10 days of release, so it's not like the 2nd week results were a surprise. Doesn't change that those combined results were still middling vs. other original Netflix films last year. Or that, once the extended Christmas / New Year's holiday was over, it dropped like a stone. From # 1 to # 10 in just 48 hours? That takes skill.
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I love this chart. Because it shows how much higher a week 2 percentage increase Jamie Foxx's "They Cloned Tyrone" had than Rebel Moon - and without the added benefit of a holiday week. That's what good word of mouth will do.
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Umm...the calendar matters. Most of the country was off last week, so direct comparisons to the week 2 of other 2023 releases clearly favor Rebel Moon. And even with that, Rebel Moon lagged (checks notes) Extraction 2's 2nd week numbers by 20%? Not a good look.
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The reason I think the comparison to Jupiter's Legacy is apt? Both were high-profile projects featuring new or unknown fantasy IP by top-tier creators for which Netflix shelled out more than $150 million. And both started strong, dominating their first week before then falling precipitously. Jupiter's Legacy's viewership fell 60% in week 3. There's your bar. Let's see how Rebel Moon compares to that.
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Counterpoint - 24 million views in its first 3 days is weak sauce vs. its $166 million budget. Comes in 9th for the year among original Netflix films. The below chart lists the top 2023 original film's 1st 3-day views, in millions. And Rebel Moon is far more expensive than several on the risk that outrank it. "It's also noteworthy that Rebel Moon had advantages over these movies: it was released early during prime time hours (in the USA) on a Thursday, and it launched over the festive period, potentially attracting more viewers during the holidays." - What's On Netflix: Zack Snyder's 'Rebel Moon' Viewership Struggles on Netflix in Week One. See also Forbes: Rebel Moon's Viewership Compares Poorly to Other 2023 Netflix Movies. Sure - it did another 34 million this past week - but that compares a 7-day week 2 to a 3-day week 1, and during a holiday week. Now, in week 3, it's falling like a rock.
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