Bookery

Hyperbole. No one ever claimed the "death" of the market. People have been predicting a decline in the market for decades. Then you have to define "market". If you mean collectibles... yes, they have steadily risen, in certain genres, during that time, while they have certainly tanked in other genres. If you are talking the sales of new-release paper-bound comics... then the people predicting that have pretty much been right all through those 50 years. If you are talking digital downloads... the point is moot because nobody was talking about it at all 50 years ago. Top-selling comics sold 1-million+ copies in the 50s, several hundred thousand copies in the 60s, and now many issue sell under 100,000 copies. Meanwhile the nation's population has doubled in that period. 400 million people in the country, and most comic printings wouldn't supply a small suburb. Non-key back-issue comics have been selling for $1 for at least 20 years, despite inflation on everything else. What Action #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 sell for over time is no more a barometer of a general "market" then Picasso sales indicate the valuation growth of velvet-Elvises.

Easy solution. Sell me the 3.5. Keep both of the others... (but seriously... with FF yet to have its serious movie reboot... they probably have more long-term price-growth potential...)

The population of comic-movie fans may be growing. We just eliminated our new comics orders (after 38 years) due to ever-declining sales. But yes... back-issue collectibles are still hot. We have purchased a ton of collections in the past few weeks, and in a single recent week sold $60k in comics just out of our local shop (no mail-order). That's the good news. The (possible) downside is... even with 2000+ Facebook looks that week and massive word-of-mouth... every sale... every sale... was to a long-time existing customer. Not a new collector in the bunch. So... I'm not sure what to make of that for long-term...

Join the club. 40 years in the business. Largest shop in the 7th largest state (by population). I'm not on it either.

Yep. It really is as simple as that.

The OP may be right about some of the methodology that goes into the rising asking prices. But unlike housing, which people need, one doesn't have to buy a comic at ever-inflated prices. The fact that many choose to do so, I think, is a fear of being left out. Prices keep rising, and finally, out of a sense of panic, they jump in. I think this is the case with AF-15. It seems every sale in grade sets a new record, despite there being an abundance of copies in the market. But often there eventually is a reckoning. A number of keys (bronze-age especially) have seen not insignificant drops since last summer, as collectors may finally decide "enough!" on certain books.

Yep. In fact, often you won't have a choice. Most folks with large collections want to move it all. If it's an estate, they have no choice. Or if they are moving. You can tell immediately if a collection has been "picked". Pass on it. Sometimes, however, the opposite occurs, where someone can't get past the idea that they should be paid at least $1 (or cover price!) for every modern bulk comic. That's when you pick, if you must, pulling out 10 or 20 comics for 70% the price of everything, leaving them with the rest. Even if you don't have the time or desire to deal with $1 books... if that's what it takes to get the collection, you can always find a dealer (or several) who will take the bulk at your cost... esp. if you toss in a few $5 and $10 books into the mix for their effort.

(read it one more time... or maybe only the golden-age guys get it...?)

The trick is being nice about it... never cocky. Several years ago I was talking with a gentleman who had a comic I wanted, but he kept insisting he didn't want to sell. Finally, I pulled some cash out of my pocket and said, "Look, sir (see I was polite)... I know you've stated it's your favorite comic and you want to keep it... but have you considered this...?". Then I carefully laid out 20 crisp new $100 bills on the table. Apparently this dentist-guy wasn't impressed.

Well, yes and no. The pulp market's ability to continually expand is frustrated by the scarcity of the material. But in the short term, I believe you will find that many pulps have actually surpassed comics in terms of multiples realized in just the past two years.

Some under-40 billionaire probably thought it was Madonna.

I agree with most of what you say... and I think there is something to be said about a preference for smaller, easier-to-display collectibles (though the used-toy store next to me has people pouring out of there daily carrying large unwieldy toys, action figures, statues, board games, etc. -- far tougher to store than posters). But I think ALL items that can be classified as pop-culture collectibles have certain in-common characteristics and sales patterns. There are certainly factors that affect how long an item remains popular. (A) are they still being manufactured and in the public eye? Comics -- yes. Lobby Cards and Pulps -- no. (B) are they too scarce... or too common... to maintain popular interest? (C) real merchandise that becomes collectible after the fact always trumps hyped manufactured collectibles (Beanie Babies, Franklin Mint plates) for long-term viability. "Fine" art and "fine" literature remain collectible (Shakespeare, Dickens, Picasso, Matisse)... but primarily because they are scarce enough it only takes a small number of people to make a market, and because they have a certain elite sensibility for the wealthy, not because they remain popular staples for the masses. As you say... sometimes items have a resurgence (records, pulps) after they once seemed to have lost interest. Even within a pop culture medium... we see massive drop-offs in collector interest: Little Orphan Annie, Lone Ranger, Katzenjammer Kids, Tracy... to be (temporarily) replaced with Deadpool, Harley Quinn, TMNT, Kang. So I guess there are two things to consider. How long does a medium remain popular, and how many shifts of interest within that medium occur over time. I actually think if someone produced lobby card sets to current movies... and especially if that included limited edition and signature sets... they would sell quite well, especially if released through specialty stores (the limited Mondo prints sell out instantly). I think limited edition sets even to old movies would be popular if marketed correctly (esp. if they improved on some of the poor selection of images for many original lobbies), or released sets to TV shows like Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, any super-hero series, etc.

That ad is no longer collectible, as people (younger than me) have forgotten who E.F. Hutton and J. Paul Getty are.

You could be right. But also keep in mind, celebrity collectibles are a tricky business. They are often valuable only to the generation that grew up with them. I've been dealing in movie posters for decades, and have seen huge drops in value for the old B-movie westerns (once highly sought after), and major stars in anything other than super-key movies have generally dropped. There are at least 2 generations now that have no idea who Humphrey Bogart, John Wayne, Gary Cooper, or even Marilyn Monroe are. Most Elvis posters have plummeted over the past few years. There are even cracks beginning to appear for the '50s sci-fi movies... once the gold standard for poster buyers. There's just fewer and fewer people who have any interest in this stuff. This is the lesson to be learned for ALL pop-culture collectibles. They often explode very fast for a couple of generations, but then ultimately give way to stuff more identifiable to younger collectors. It's called "pop culture" for a reason... and nothing stays mass-popular forever.

Dow down another 1100 points today.

That's true, but only if you don't keep track of what you paid for it, such that the entire sale is treated as a gain. If you buy it for $100, and sell it for $120, you only owe on the gain, or with your percentage above, $5 (or 5% of the initial purchase price).

It kinda does.

I can't think of a scenario where anyone would ever do this...

Why would I be paying $20 for the privilege of buying something for $100? The eBay fees are to the seller... not the buyer. And we have no idea how much the seller paid for the item originally. I already addressed selling costs in a previous post... All sales come with a transaction cost. And if you mean shipping costs... I factor what I pay for shipping before I bid on an item, so if I'm willing to pay $100 for an item, and shipping is $10... I bid $90. Simple.

The outlook wasn't brilliant for the board's readers that day, Axe Elf had been a-postin', and he'd really had his say-- The problem was that many still were left scratchin' their head, As just to what exactly was the gist of what was said. It didn't seem to fit with all the theories of the day, Them economic concepts didn't seem to be in play; The math was all a-murky and as flittish as as a colt, "I'm missin' something?" said the crowd -- "and feelin' like a dolt". But Bookery, mighty Bookery, wasn't one to be a-feared-- He looked them posts right in the eye and gently rubbed his beard; I think I've got it figured, as he re-read every line, I see at what he's thinkin', and I need to now opine. The boards were hushed and anxious as he stated out his case, It was the greatest challenge here that Bookery ever faced; He squinted as he typed, being corrective, but polite-- "This Axe Elf seems mistaken', and I'd like to set him right." He positioned and he posited and analyzed and stated, If he could solve the Elf's ciphers, the crowd would be elated; He posted but the Elf came back, "you've missed what it's about"-- For Bookery, mighty Bookery, gave his best but had struck out.

You're working backwards. The sale price (say $100) represents one thing and one thing only... the price a buyer was willing to pay for it at a specific point in time. The buyer doesn't care what percentage the seller gets, or if the selling is making or losing money. If the seller doesn't like that they are getting $80 (after fees) and raises their price to $120... it likely won't sell, because the buyers at that point are willing to pay just $100. I have people sell me comics all of the time and often may complain "but I paid more than that for it!". I don't care. The fact that you overpaid $200 for a $100 item is irrelevant to what I will pay for it. Likewise, if you found it at a flea market for $1, that doesn't mean I should pay you less for it. The rules of basic commerce (brokering fees, overhead, market escalations or deflation, demand, supply) don't change just because we're dealing in comic books. The stock market isn't going up because sellers keep trying to recoup a 2% brokerage fee.

I don't really understand the concept that comes up in a lot of threads, that if you don't get 100% of retail (whatever that means) for an item you sell, you are somehow being ripped off. Nobody gets 100%. No matter how you sell, it will cost you money in order to make that sale. If the going rate (again, whatever that means) for an item is $100, and a dealer sells it for $100... he doesn't get to keep all of that money. A percentage goes to rent, utilities, staff, convention fees, travel, marketing, etc., etc. If you sell on eBay, for the service of them giving you access to a worldwide market, you will have to pay 15% or so, and all auctions are a crapshoot, so you may not get maximum value even to begin with. If you sell through Heritage, they ultimately take a 33% commission (unless you have a fantastic collection and can negotiate a better deal... even then the most you'll get is 75-80%). Other auction houses may have lower fees, but may also not reach as affluent a market. If you sell to a dealer you may get less, but you get cash immediately with no risk of returns or hassle, and the dealer will often buy material big auction houses won't want to fuss with. If you're selling a large mixed collection of good and weak material, selling to a dealer is often the only recourse. Even if you sell at a garage sale, you may have to buy ads, will likely get WAY below "market value", and exert a lot of time doing it. Selling on eBay also requires a huge commitment of time. Hold your own local auction? You'll pay an auctioneer, and likely reach a relatively small audience. When selling, all of these methods have advantages and disadvantages (if each didn't have its own advantage, it wouldn't exist). But NONE come without some expense in order to sell your item.

I've got a client interested in this box. I wonder how much?

Actually, I may tease or make a joke (like above), but a large part of my business is dependent on "flippers". Flipper is what used to be known in the rare book market as a "book scout". Before eBay, there were people who made a profession out of seeking out books in flea markets, small shops, estates, etc., and then immediately bringing them to a large dealer for quick re-sale. The good ones put a huge amount of work and effort into it. They knew which dealers would pay the most for which books, etc., and would specifically look for books for them. Some would even keep and track want-lists. When eBay came along, most of these folks disappeared and sold for themselves on the internet. Flippers are essentially comic book scouts who may sell directly on eBay or may sell to dealers depending upon how fast they want to move merchandise or how much hassle they want to put into it. The good ones know as much (if not more) than most dealers, as the trick is often to keep up on the hottest trends. I spend tens of thousands of dollars with flippers every year, and I also sell thousands more to flippers who have specific clients. I don't have time to hit all of these trade shows, or to follow-up every Craigslist posting... so I pay a premium for the work and effort to those that do. I even have folks that will buy a book out of my discount basement for $1 and sell it back to me the next day for $5 because it just became hot overnight. And I'm good with that... would rather buy a book back for $5 that's now worth $10, then to sell it for $1 and never see it again. There is a difference between dealers and flippers, though long-term flippers have sometimes moved into dealer status. A dealer offers a service, whether at a shop or a show. I maintain inventory, help people locate what they need, provide a comfortable atmosphere and shopping experience, develop long-term relationships. My stock may include items that have sat in inventory for years, waiting for the right collector seeking out an esoteric item. For a flipper's business model to work, they need to "flip" items quickly. As a dealer, I pay property tax, income taxes, pay employees, etc., which has an impact on the community I'm in. Flippers may or may not be "on the grid", depending upon the size of their operation. Most dealers / businesses involve more than one staffer, partner, employee, etc. Most flippers work solo. People disparage dealers about as much as they do flippers, and often say with scorn how dealers "make a profit" (though it's okay for them to make a "profit" at their occupation), as if selling comics doesn't involve massive amounts of work, cost, customer relations, and qualities of service just like any business. It is the same with flippers... you'd be surprised at the amount of work, travel, and cost some of these folks put into it.