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Amazing books, Lee. 

42 minutes ago, Pantodude said:

Today, the 8.5 on CC ($114K) sold for less than the 8.0 ($147K) two days ago, and the 7.0 "only" fetched $49.2K on June 18 despite a 7.5 fetching $75K in May.  This suggests the 7.0 was a relative steal.  Assuming the 7.0 should have been at least $65K, how do we make sense of the 4.0 to 6.5 range?  Per GPA, a 4.5 ($17.5K) sold for less than a 4.0 ($24K) in June.  And while a 6.0 sold in May for $46K, a 6.5 sold for "only" $34.8K on June 18.   Looks like someone put a hex on the date June 18th!   So how should we value a 5.0, which last sold in mid-April for $30.1K?  And a 6.0, which last sold in early May for $46K?  

There’s a 7.0 listed on eBay for $60k OBO,  which would suggest that maybe the $50k sale on HA is fairly accurate, not necessarily a steal. 
 

I personally think the 8.0 sale for 147k was an outlier.  If several 8.0 copies start coming to market, doubt they will achieve similar price right now.  There are just so many copies in this grade region (7.5 to 8.5).  
 

Its always funny to me that when a book underperforms at auction the tendency is to make excuses for the copy (point out flaws), but when one copy does really well, it’s a reflection of the whole market for a book moving up.  crazy how many people started to reprice their copies based on that 8.0 sale.    

It was interesting to see Hulk 1 7.0 go up against that very nice X-men 1 7.0 on HA…in the context of is X-men 1 top 3 SA book.  Only one price point but Hulk 1 performed better.  There was also a 6.5 hulk 1 and 6.5 X-men 1 in that auction, but as others have stated, that was definitely not the nicest looking X-men 6.5 so not a fair comparison.  

1 hour ago, silverseeker said:

I checked eBay last night and it appears to be flooded with copies graded 6.0 and lower...wonder how many of them are selling?

As prices continue to go up, more X-men 1 owners will be enticed to sell, bringing more supply to the market.  As long as there is enough demand to absorb this new supply, prices should be ok. If not, might start seeing a bit of a correction or basing of price.  Will see what happens.  I welcomed a correction as I’d like to grab a second copy.

Seems to me if and when a correction occurs, it will be tied closely with equity markets much like in March 2020.  Speculative, modern, and bronze age books with relatively larger census numbers will be hit the hardest.  While the blue chip keys may also get hit, I doubt it will be as significant.  This is assuming we do get some sort of liquidity or solvency event in the markets leading to a deflationary scenario, whether brief or prolonged. 

If central banks and governments decide to kick can down the road with regards to massive debt and continue to print away, I wonder if it's possible for these "assets" to continue to go up in dollar price. 

It's also quite possible that comic books, specifically gold and silver age books, have been significantly undervalued over the years considering the true SCARCITY of most of the big blue chip major keys.  As a result, as demand picked up when new collectors entered the market during COVID, there was this big spike in price.  I mean really...are 2200 blue label AF15s so MANY that the global market can't absorb them?  Doubtful.  I don't expect prices to continue to climb in this manner...eventually there will be a steady state where demand meets supply...but for now...I wouldnt be banking on the market crashing either.  Just too many unknowns.  This is why I bit the bullet and bought an X-men 1 at these crazy prices despite putting it off for years.   It's a book I NEED to have in my collection.  Other books that I also put off getting like DD1, I'm ok missing out on and if the market does in fact correct massively, I'll pick one up then.  If it doesn't, no sweat.  

20 hours ago, Drummy said:

I think you're going to see ups and downs in the data here regarding page quality, as two things are important to keep in mind -- first, does the book have some other issue that would mitigate a 'white page' bump.  Bad wrap, chipping, writing on the cover, a gross Stan Lee signature, etc.  If the book is otherwise clean, though, I'd say that WP might push up prices 10-20% or so.

The other question is whether a book seems to be 'upgradable' with a press or some other practice.  Then the PQ doesn't matter nearly as much to certain bidders -- they will bid up the potential and not the actual grade.  A COW book that has a pressable crease will definitely go for more than a COW book without one.

For myself, I only bid on wp books so I know that I'm driving up the value on a few of them.  But just keep in mind that it's one factor among many that get people to bid big -- including how often a certain book ever has 'white pages' at all.  With regard to SA keys, I'd say anecdotally that TTA 27, AF 15, and maybe FF 13 are among the toughest to find with WP.

Dan

Agreed.  Many factors to consider.  I personally would pay a premium for certain books that are notoriously difficult to find with white pages such as AF15, TTA27, BB28, etc.  This is assuming the white pager is otherwise without deal breakers (for me) such as marvel chipping and BAD centering.  How much of premium?  Depends on how badly I want the book but I'd say not uncommon for me to pay half grade up or around10-20%

7 hours ago, Albert Thurgood said:

Not that uncharted. After the GFC, the US engaged in "quantitative easing" reducing the value of the US$. It was a different sort of crisis but I suspect that did not have the same effect on prices of comics as we are seeing now.

Sure...but nowhere near the same scale.  Not even close...and likely much more to come.  My point is currency is being devalued and PART of the reason for the rise in price of these nontraditional assets is because wealthy are seeking alternative investments as potential stores of value.  I prefer bitcoin for that, but comics are more fun.   

On 3/23/2021 at 7:44 PM, gadzukes said:

If it was just a one-off on a few comics in one month that would be one thing, but we are seeing a sustained massive almost exponential growth over just about every Marvel Key issue (trickling down into lesser keys).  New records are being made weekly (almost daily) in multiple grades over multiple Keys.

This is the case in quite a few hobbies right now.  We all know what's happening with sports cards, pokemon...watches are also going for crazy amounts.  This is a freaking "everything bubble".  Many are postulating this is the result of stock gains, bitcoin money, savings from staying home, etc.  I think those things are playing a role...along with companies like Rally selling shares of sports cards and comics, which is pushing prices up.  Another thing to consider is all the money printing by central banks around the world.  Wealthy people are seeking safe haven in non traditional asset classes that may serve as stores of value.  I was listening to a Michael Saylor interview where he basically says that with the debasing of the USD, its prudent to hold assets that cannot just be easily reproduced like bitcoin, real estate, and rare art/collectibles (Picasso, Da Vinci, etc).  I consider comic book keys (sports cards and other collectibles) to fall into that latter category.  The economy really is in uncharted territory with all the intervention going on right now.  

I'll take the ASM 1 per our discussion

I recently had the same dilemma.  Hulk 1 vs FF1.  I ended up getting the Hulk 1 and couple weeks later a decent FF1 presented itself so I had to go after it.  

Interesting the FF1 4.0 on comiclink is going for more than Hulk 1 4.0 on comiclink.  Has FF1 surpassed Hulk 1 in price?

Incredible-congrats Lou.  Don't know how Bob does it but he seems to score some awesome books.  I picked up my 5.0 from him exactly 1 year ago.   Couldn't be happier with my copy and with highgradecomics.  Top notch.  

3 minutes ago, NoMan said:

My paranoia begins there. And technically it's "safe deposit box" not "Safety" box. It's a common misnomer. Just don't want you to go around not educated about safe deposit boxes!!!

would like to hear about your research please...

Damn...I remember just a few months ago when I debated paying record price for a 5.0 with White Pages and no MC.  Glad I pulled the trigger.

I can see why somebody paid $29.5K for that 5.0. Its nice! It looked nicer than some 5.5s and even 6.0s. This is the same reason why I had absolutely no problem "overpaying" for my 5.0 copy with white pages. I preferred to pay a few thousand over the going price for a 5.0 than have to pay $10-20K more for a higher graded book as in my opinion my 5.0 presents much better than its given grade.

The sub crease definitely breaks colorv but it doesn't look like it goes all the way to the bottom of the book. Not sure though. Either way nice book but I too am not a fan of rust

I agree...I think it looks super nice for the grade. It has a subscription crease but doesnt seem to break color through the length of the book.

http://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=667422

And just like that, the price I paid for my 5.0 has been surpassed. Does CC report its sales to GPA?

AF15

 

Dont think this one ever uploaded.

 

Great looking book.

Do you have a picture of the back because the front looks better than a 5.0

 

Here you go.

 

Thanks for the upload Jordy...was having trouble uploading it. I picked this one up at SDCC after several months time payment. At the time (and probably still is the case), I paid much higher price for it than any other 5.0 based on GPA...mostly because of the WP and the colors looked amazing to me.

Anyway, the back of the book does have some staining, but I dont have a picture of back at the moment. My understanding is that book was never pressed/cleaned, but doubt it will grade for higher than 5.0 because it has the color breaking crease after the M in "Amazing". That said, one of the graders did give it a 5.5, so who knows. In hand the book is awesome...very happy with the purchase.

AF15

Dont think this one ever uploaded.

Picked up AF15 at SDCC so finally able to formally join club.

I actually agree with Peter that the economy is headed for major correction in the coming year or two. That said, I don't really care what happens to the value of my AF15. It might take a hit, but it will always have some value to it. Aside from Tec 27 and Action Comics, AF15 is probably the safest book to own as far as maintaining its value. I'd consider it the #3 book in this hobby.

I bought a beautiful TOS 39 from Chay and the transaction couldn't have been better. Just a great all around guy. Thanks!!!!!

Back to core conversation -- when it comes to determining market value, there are dozens of confounders which skew numbers for any one sale - looking at trends and making proper adjustments is the way I would do it. Factoring in things like

- site of sale

- format (auction/BIN)

- presence of outlier defects (chipping/writing)

- color strike

- when slab was graded

- technical appearance relative to grade

- number of other copies presently available

- last sale price (see, there it is! )

- other external trends

- location of book

- record/credibility of seller

- terms of sale (availability of time payments, eg)

 

 

You forget page quality and cover paper quality.

Yes, white paged copies do sell for more so that's definitely a key consideration.

 

...except when they don't.

 

-J.

 

Which is rarely.

 

The highest priced sale of a 6.0 recorded in GPA had white pages. It fetched 19% more than any other copy has sold for at that grade, and is the only white paged copy to have sold at that grade level in the past 3 years. The second highest recorded sale for a 6.0 had ow/w page quality.

 

The three highest sales ever recorded for a 5.0 all had ow/w page quality. In the past 3 years, no white paged sales are recorded at that grade.

 

The two highest recorded sales for a 3.0 were for ow/w paged copies, both sold last year. There were no recorded sales for a white pager in this grade. Conversely, the two lowest selling copies last year in this grade had c/ow pages.

 

There have been too few sales of this book in conditions above 6.0 over the past two years to refute the importance of white pages to selling price.

 

Are there recent examples of white paged copies underperforming compared with a ow or c/ow example, or are you just blowing hot air again?

I'm still paying off (time payments) my 5.0 with WP but I will say that I'm paying quite a bit more than any recorded 5.0s on GPA just because of the WP (and overall nice colors on the book). I hate to be "that guy", but I'm probably setting a record for 5.0 price range. I'm a clearly a sucker for WP.