FFB

I do acknowledge that there are some similarities between stocks and comics, in the sense that if you miss a huge day up because a movie is announced, you might miss the entire run-up on price. But in general, stocks and comics do not move in the same way or for the same reason. Publicly traded stocks have at least 4 significant events every year in the form of quarterly earnings reports. Earnings might be higher or lower than expected for a quarter, but the company tends to give analysts enough information about what's going on to model projected earnings into the future. Comics don't have quarterly earnings reports, or earnings for that matter. Many comics have no drivers of demand at all, except that someone wants to buy it because they like it. Or no one wants to buy it, and it's essentially worthless regardless of what the price guide says. Also, if you own a profitable company that pays a dividend, then even if a broad market downturn happens and the share price drops, you still will generally still get the dividend. Comics don't pay dividends. Also, whereas a comic book might see one or two, or even a dozen or two, spikes in sales all of a sudden, once more than a few dozen copies of a book come onto the market, it tends to soften the price. Not always, but generally. Stocks take a much larger amount of selling in order to depress the price, and unless that selling is sustained over a period of time, the price will rebound because the stock price is generally representative of actual earnings or anticipated growth in some key metric (like market share) that is expected to someday turn into earnings. Comics don't generate earnings aside from the sale of the asset itself. Stocks, unlike comics, can sell in the volumes of millions of shares without affecting the price because there is so much more money and so many more participants in that market. Furthermore, the popularity of a comic book that spikes nowadays tends to be around some future event being announced and the resultant FOMO, and once that event happens, it's old news, FOMO goes away, and the price tends to plummet. There are some exceptions, like Action 1 or Tec 27, but the great majority of the books on the market follows that trend. Bottom line is that I do not think that the stock market is a helpful analogue to the comic book market because they have little in common.

I don't think right now is a good time to be buying bigger books. I believe we are in the middle of a general downturn that is going to accelerate as the global economy falls into a pretty deep recession, and no one knows how the Federal Reserve and other central banks will act or what will happen to inflation. Late 2023 and early 2024 are my current guesstimate for when the market will come close to hitting the bottom, but it could be even later than that if there is more global instability from military conflicts in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere. All of the sanctions and disruptions to global supply chains will make economic markets very unstable and unpredictable, but what I believe (i.e., my opinion) is that we are headed for a lousy couple/few years in the global economy. That isn't going to be good for the comic book market in the short or even intermediate term. Also, I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't say that this book or that book will be worth X now and 2X or 3X in 5 to 10 years' time. I've been collecting for almost 50 years, however, and have become pretty familiar with how the comic market behaves when there is an economic downturn. When the economy is weak, people tend to spend less on comics. When it is strong, people tend to spend more. I've always gotten the most bang for my buck when I've bought books during economic downturns. That's what I expect to happen again as we work through the present situation.

I completely agree with you. The next couple of years should provide some excellent buying opportunities on books that will look cheap in 5 to 10 years.

I wonder if this situation will lead to CGC changing its labeling again on the UF4 acetate book to "The Cuckold Variant." Too soon?

Yeah, having gone through a divorce myself, I can say that when kids are involved, it's always hard even when both sides mutually agree to break up - which is obviously a much different situation than what happened here. But man, I definitely do not think broadcasting live with a footlong snot rope hanging off his face was a good look. I just hope that the next layer of this onion does not involve BF dude shooting himself or someone else.

That's true, but I can't think of another one with as many layers as this onion has.

From beginning to end, this is the craziest comic industry story I can think of, ever.

It's pretty clear that it's him. Who else would know what he knows and have insight into Fantazia and the many Mantle cards and Tec 27s that he had in stock back in the day? My guess is that after the last time he was outed, he'd already been here contributing good information for a few years without causing any problems, and since Steve B. is no longer with the company, there was no one with a hard on for Dupcak in the upper ranks anymore. So they let him stay as long as he doesn't cause problems or rip off forum members in the For Sale threads.

Do you have anything new to add that hasn't already been said in the past 20 years he's been discussed here?

Can I nominate this for Worst Thread of the Year? I'm shocked OP can actually operate a computer.

In a nutshell, he said "Why should I post this information that I have if I'm just going to have people jump all over me every time I do?" And yeah, he's right. I wouldn't post here either if I kept getting attacked every time I opened my mouth. He has a very checkered past (to put it mildly), but he is definitely an expert on sports cards and vintage comics. That's undeniable. I think at this point, everyone is aware of his past and can take precautions against purchasing from him. But in my mind, it's kind of annoying to see this happen every time he posts good information that isn't readily available.

I feel like I am listening to my 13 year old right now. Yes, Aman doesn't like you and he has his reasons. But why let him bait you? Just ignore it. Jesus, I literally had this same conversation with my kid recently about some little punk in his class who was saying a bunch of stupid to him and getting him all riled up. I doubt I'm the only one who would find this interesting, so go ahead and post up whatever information you can share about this very interesting topic. Or take your ball and go home if that makes you feel better.

Well, I for one would be perfectly happy to hear (read) as much of the story as you feel like typing out here.

The green label is an acceptable compromise under the circumstances, but in an ideal world, they should have refused to certify it at all. What is the point in certifying a bootleg? It isn't "genuine." But since we live in the real world instead of an ideal world, I guess I can live with the green label.

CGC certifying a book as genuine might be seen as "aiding and abetting" Black Flag in a scheme to market the infringing material for financial gain. Aiding and abetting has an incredibly broad definition under the law. If what Black Flag did met the criteria for criminal copyright infringement, then CGC certifying the book as genuine might very well be illegal and could be seen as aiding and abetting Black Flag in their own violation.

I'm sure they knew what it was in that regard, without having to check the barcode. I believe them when they say they knew exactly what they were grading, and to an extent, I agree that they knew exactly what they were grading. It was an acetate, aftermarket cover stapled on to an already-released comic book that didn't sell through the first go-around. What I do not believe, and won't believe unless someone from CGC were to admit it out loud, is that they knowingly aided and abetted Black Flag in infringing Marvel's intellectual property. I think CGC did not realize that what they were doing was illegal, either because they got bad legal advice or no legal advice on the matter before giving the project the go-ahead.

Not only do I realize that, I actually quoted Mike's comment on that exact point to bump it back to the forefront of the discussion a dozen or so pages back. What I think happened is that whoever at CGC was talking to Black Flag and Crain about the acetate deal had no clue that it would be infringement. They are probably in a business function, not a legal function, and did not bother to run it by CGC's lawyer. Or, perhaps they did, and CGC's lawyer does not have any expertise with intellectual property or licensing issues and gave it a green light. I look at this from a Hanlon's Razor perspective. I believe that Black Flag and CGC both were so in love with their idea that they didn't realize how illegal it was or what a poopstorm it would cause. I can't imagine that they did this with full knowledge that it was illegal and that Marvel would push back on it. What would be the point of that? No, this entire situation reeks of both ignorance and arrogance in equal measures.

I understand that, but it was *my* point in my original post, which you were responding to.

That's not a crime though....

Black Flag is the one who had (and violated) the Exclusives contract with Marvel that prohibited them from doing this in the first place. I doubt that CGC knew (or perhaps "realized" is a better word) that Black Flag was doing something unlawful when they made acetate versions. I don't think CGC would have willingly gone along with the plan if they realized that what Black Flag was doing was illegal, as that would have made CGC potentially liable for aiding and abetting copyright infringement (which has civil AND criminal liability).

Personally, I think Black Flag should be the one reimbursing people. They're the ones who sold the 9.9 for $1500, not CGC. All CGC collected, as far as we know, was the grading fee.

I'm aware that they are out in the wild. I'm also aware that someone who spent nearly $2k for a blue label CGC 9.9 would almost certainly be unwilling to send it back to CGC just because they asked nicely. This is precisely why I suggest that they yank the certification numbers for all blue label Universal graded copies of this book now, before they start selling on the secondary market and create the impression that these are the "rarest of the rare." The books probably won't sell for a record price if their cert numbers aren't valid, and if they do sell for a high price once because some fool who can't wait to be parted with his money doesn't check the certification before buying, the problem is at least less likely to persist beyond that.