Darkowl

I can only imagine the amount of baseball card collectors who naturally migrated to Marvel collecting cards, then went one step further and are now flipping comics at insane prices. What’s funny is that I can remember the good ol’ days when sports card collectors would go to comic book stores to buy sports cards. Nerds and jocks all in the same store.

What’s really odd is the high amount of people (including myself) who didn’t take into consideration the up/down nature of real estate. It was like everyone thought it was somehow invincible. Why were we all so convinced of its sustainability?

It’s gotta start somewhere.

Ouch! Sorry to hear that. Yeah, I would have lost over 100K in a matter of months, and it would have taken me years to gain back. Right after that incident I stopped taking my friend’s advice.

Perhaps. But I do think that if a H181 9+ is suddenly at 5K, there’s gonna be a lot more “average” people waiting to see if it drops any further. Personally, I don’t see the financial logic in buying a book that’s continuously trending downwards. At least not until it levels off or starts to go back up again.

But it’s not your response that changes the outcome.

I believe that’s what they said right before the 2008 housing crash. In fact, a good buddy of mine told me to buy a house right before the crash. He said, “You can NEVER going wrong with buying real estate!”. So I went to the bank to get a loan, and was turned down. That turned out to be the biggest financial blessing in disguise. I would have lost big time!

It’s easy to say that now, but if we’re facing a situation where a H181 9+ is suddenly at 5K? What’s to stop it from from sinking even deeper?

I think it’ll be the stubborn ones who will want to hang onto their losing investment. Like Chevy Chase in Vegas Vacation. Ya know how he keeps losing, yet keeps dumping money on the table? Yeah, something like that, lol!

I don’t think it’ll be the bored rich people doing the panic selling. Even then, I’m sure bored, rich people don’t like to lose money.

I honestly have no clue what’s “more likely” anymore. I feel like we entered an alternate universe a year ago and anything is possible now. Not only is my crystal ball broken, it’s completely missing.

I attended a standard university, and remember when my physiology professor (a former Harvard professor) asked the class, “Do you know what the difference is between you and Harvard students? Money!” Personally, I think quality of education isn’t provided by a school or it’s price tag, but by the professors themselves. Some are amazing, while others have no place in teaching at all, and it has nothing to do with the school they work for.

I agree in that the current market isn’t like the one in the 90’s. This is definitely different. But that first factor you listed was already contributing to a gradual rise in prices long before the kind of rapid growth we’ve seen in the last few months (minus a couple exceptions). Other factors are at play now, and It’s become a game where the the highest selling BIN listing on eBay doesn’t take long to become the new standard asking price. It’s insanity and madness all rolled into one. Covid, lockdowns, stimulus money, tax returns, bored rich people, and baseball card collectors migrating our way are probably bigger contributors to the inflation than superhero movies, imo, though that too will always be a contributing factor. So even though the components constructing this current situation are different from the components that built the bubble from the 90’s, we’re still facing a situation that most certainly resembles a bubble. This kind of growth just isn’t sustainable, imo. It’ll either level off soon or crash hard, regardless of how many superhero movies get made.

I was talking to my dad the other day. He attended college back in the late 60's, and said that he was able to pay for his college upfront. He was a busboy. He paid for college upfront with his busboy money. Unreal. It's pretty mind-blowing how expensive college is these days. You either have to go into massive amounts of debt, get a scholarship, or be lucky enough to have parents who are willing to pay for it in order to attend. Not to mention that MOST college degrees are completely worthless. You either go to college, because you really want to study something (regardless of pay), or you go into I.T. or the healthcare field if you want "good" money and stability. Otherwise, you'll be stuck with an overpriced college bill that will take 20 years to pay off, and a career that brings in 40K a year, which you'll then have to get a second job at Starbucks just so that you can make ends meet. Trade schools and accelerated colleges have become really popular lately due to the uprise in standard college tuition. My brother only spent 3K on welding school that only took him a year to complete, and he already has a steady, good paying job. Things are most definitely changing.

I wonder what's rising in price faster, college or comics?

If it's bored, rich people, I'm genuinely curious as to how they made their way over here. But like you said, could have been as simple as some small talk over a coffee and bagel. News travels pretty fast, I guess.

So the Marvel trading cards are worth money now too? Wow. That does sound like desperation!

Panic. Also a valid catalyst. I think that's what happened with Peter Panzerfaust. People so wanted it to be the next WD1. It wasn't. If panic and desperation is what's driving up these prices, then I'm even more concerned.

It's a bubble until it pops.

One problem with this situation is that nobody knows how much these books are really worth anymore, especially with how fast the prices are changing. You could argue that they’re only worth what people are willing to pay, but to what extent is that really? One copy of H181 sells for 2K higher than it normally does in a BIN listing on eBay, and it suddenly becomes the new "normal" price? What exactly are we basing the value of these books off of? You could argue that it’s supply and demand, but what is driving up the demand the most? Speculation? Bored people at home with too much money? Conventions not occurring due to lockdowns? The new stimulus checks to fund these books that people couldn’t before afford? Tax returns? After you remove some of these “demand” catalysts, will we see a minor correction or a huge crash? Just how sustainable is this current market? One thing’s for sure, I’ve been collecting and selling comics since the 90’s and I’ve NEVER seen anything like this to this degree. It’s like the WD1 phenomenon on steroids. This doesn't look like healthy growth to me when it's so remarkably unpredictable. I'm a bit concerned, tbh.

I wasn’t saying that Disney merch makes something popular, or relies on it to be popular. That wasn’t my point at all. My point was that the merch you see in Disneyland gift shops usually reflects something that is really popular. Like I said, Wolverine is already a household name, and I can only imagine what new heights Disney will take this character. The merch at Disneyland gift shops is just a small reflection of that. It’s not a defining point I was trying to make, so don’t read too deep into it. And I never said I was betting against Hulk 181. I don’t have a crystal ball, and I have no idea what the future holds for the market, but considering the rapid inflation we’re seeing in the market (and yes it’s not just H181), I’m certainly not as a quick to bank on this particular book as I once was, or any other book that triples in value overnight. And if the market does crash, H181 will probably take some sort of a hit a long with it. It’s not as invincible as the yellow masked anti-hero the book represents.

“There is no rational explanation for it.” Sounds about right to me, so it’s interesting to at least attempt to dissect and analyze the chaos that shrouds the current market.

I never singled out H181 as the only book that feels off in terms of inflation, but you do realize what thread this is, right? I’m deliberately choosing to focus on this particular book, not any other book that may have experienced even higher inflation, though discussing the inflation for those other books may actually be beneficial when attempting to rationalize and explain the current market we’re in.

Well, regarding Hulk 181, some rumors have been leaked that directly tie the upcoming Falcon and Winter Soldier series to Wolverine. People go nuts over this stuff (even if it is just a rumor), and might just be one possible explanation for it’s dramatic incline in value. Does anyone remember when Peter Panzerfaust shot up in insane value all because of the rumor that it was going to be a tv show made by the same creators of Walking Dead? People desperately wanted the same kind of rare luck and value that Walking Dead 1 brought to the table that they were willing to pay a ridiculous amount for it. A 9.8 used to sell for around 1K. Now? Easily under $200. I could be dead wrong, but I think we may be seeing something similar with Hulk 181. The only difference is that Wolverine is already a household name, and everyone knows that Disney is going to take the character to the next level for years to come. It isn’t speculation at this point. It’s a guarantee. If people thought that Wolverine was already popular, just wait until you see where his status is 5 years from now when Wolverine merch is being sold at Disneyland. Yeah, people are going nuts for Hulk 181! The funny thing is that I never thought this book was a risky buy. I always put all my chips in the pot for this one book. Every time. But after seeing this rapid inflation with no real explanation, I’m incredibly hesitant to have the same kind of faith in this book. Something feels off to me.

Harder. Way harder. A lot of people think their dreck is worth thousands just because all of these superhero movies are being made. People who know nothing about comics are being way more selective and have a much firmer hold onto their trash thinking it’s going to be the next Walking Dead or something. It’s insane. Another trend I’ve been seeing in the last couple years is that people don’t want you to cherry pick. It’s either buy all of their or move on. I’ve also seen an incline in the amount of people pressing their own books, or at least trying to figure out how to properly do it. It’s not like any of that stuff didn’t exist before. It’s just that there’s way more people doing it now. Things have changed.