Naphtha

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Respect the input but the bolded is simply untrue. 

GPA reports every single major auction house (except Comiclink), and not just online ones, as well as all the private sellers on ebay.

Easily enough data to glean averages and trends, much more so, I dare say, than the anecdotal accounts of individual dealers at a con. 

-J.

Wayfair v. South Dakota

GPA is becoming increasingly less accurate every month.

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Yes it does.

And NO reported sales include sales tax, or whatever other logical fails you're trying to use to justify your lost arguments.

-J.

Nope. Invoice amount is different from sale price on heritage.

Are they just going to report a blanket sales tax for all 50 states??

You are talking to someone who has purchased from heritage multiple times and I can assure you, what you see is not what I paid.

Here's an example: (4560 x 0.065 (CT sales tax of 6.5%)) + 4560 Base price + $38.00 shipping = $4,894.4. If the person paid by credit card add 3%, echeck, 1%, money order 0%. Math is hard...

2 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

No.  The reflected price on GPA includes the premium.  

And sure you can believe whatever you like.

Realized sales don't back it up however.  

-J.

No, it doesnt...but I don't want to explain it again...buyer's premium is different from fees

4 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

How do you know that sale wasn't just a continuation of the across the board price increases that this book has been experiencing ?

You don't.  

And by the way that copy sold for $4560, not "almost $5k". 

But to answer your question, in mid-January a book with "ow/w" sold for $4100 which was the highest price ever paid for the grade until the sale you mention on heritage mid feb.  In that time there were books with "white pages" on the label that sold for somewhat less.

And subsequent to the high sale on heritage you mention, another copy with "white pages" on the label sold for $4200 on Feb 22, which for some reason is over $300 Lee's than the other copy with "white pages" on the label, and in line with the "ow/w" copy that sold for six weeks ago.

What does it all mean? 

It means nothing.  

-J.

Heritage adds a 1,2, or 3% processing fee depending on how you pay as well as sales tax and shipping. a $4,560 is definitely just up to 5k. This is another problem with GPA which is a whole different thread altogether.

For the other sales, was a white pages listed at that same price? If there was, I would bet my collection that the WP would have sold first.

You are failing to account for multiple variables including what was currently for sale and the timing for the sales listed. 

29 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

What sales ?

Show me. 

And then I will show you an equal amount that don't.

-J.

The last 9.4 WP gsx1 sold for almost 5k on heritage two weeks ago... Find one that matches that price.

and of course prices rise to meet the next market high...that's obvious. If a WP sells for a high price, other page quality books will slowly rise to meet it. 

3 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Except.... they don't.

-J.

Except they do, GSX1 is the prime example. I dont agree with it, but the sales are right in front of you.

Also, you don't have to sign off. I can see who is posting.

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Keep that dream a-lie-ve.  

-J.

Ive seen a significant turnaround in books that actually present well over the usual white page premium. I agree that bronze age books will always carry a decent premium on page quality, but just look at the FF48. Recent sales have shown a trend toward white covers over white pages.

On 3/4/2019 at 12:35 PM, kimik said:

 

"You should have gone for White Pages!"

 

 

That book probably is white pages. Older slab, obviously never been pressed. You made a much better choice than following the white page crowd.

On 3/3/2019 at 2:29 PM, Lazyboy said:

Irrational market cheerleading = good, normal, not market consultant

Intelligent market analysis = bad, abnormal, market consultant

Gotcha.

Never said any of that, but you continue to be the thrilling conversationalist that you are. 

1 hour ago, Lazyboy said:

Key words in bold.

Do you live in some alternate reality in which the X-Men haven't been in the public eye for nearly two decades with regular movie releases? The supply isn't going to shrink beyond normal, nominal attrition, so sustainable price increases (not just blowing up the speculation bubble even more) will have to be due to an increase in demand. Where is the new demand going to come from if it somehow hasn't been created over the last two decades?

Can we not escape to a thread where we can just talk like normal people instead of trying to act like market consultants?

17 minutes ago, Getoutandstayout said:

I know that the X-men movies have been around a while. I thought they were OK (certainly better than the first two Fantastic Four movies and the solo Hulk movies), but they don't match the caliber of the films that Disney/Marvel have been putting out since the first Iron Man in 2008. And I think this is what people are looking forward to. It's too bad that the Russo Brothers have decided to move on from superhero movies. I thought Colossus in the first Deadpool movie was beyond awesome. 7 1/2 ft. tall and massive. That's what audiences want to see. So different from the slender, much shorter, punching bag Colossus created by Fox Studios. If Disney can improve on Wolverine (yes, I think it can even be done without Hugh Jackman) like Colossus was improved in Deadpool, it's going to really fire up the audiences and leave them wanting more. And you know what that always does to first appearances in comics.

 

Oh, btw, look what came in the mail for me this week. I was finally able to replace what I had to sell last year.

Glad to hear you got it back! That book is a must in every collection.

I agree, I always felt like Fox was more or less just making movies to keep the intellectual property. We know this was true for the FF franchise, but the X-men (aside from X2 which I will always love regardless of public opinion) always felt watered down. Like they had all the ideas, but the studios said "that will cost too much so just use a latex Juggernaut suit instead..."

Hopefully Disney uses their full arsenal because if any of the Marvel properties deserves it, it would be X-men.

4 hours ago, batmiesta said:

Apart from Wolverine and the Punisher, all Bronze age first appearances are over priced and getting sillier by the day.  

Please explain...the Punisher part, not Wolverine.

8.0-8.5

51 minutes ago, Darkowl said:

What do you get when you mix a solid key book with a ton of speculation?

Crazy value.

When Disney releases their first X-Men movie, you're going to wish you bought every key X book right now. Seriously. These numbers are small compared to what they WILL look like.

I agree completely. This is the tip of the iceberg. Avengers craze lasted 10+ years. X-men hasn't even started yet.

I'll add that I think X-men will be predominately a streaming service IP though. This will likely become the future of the MCU in my opinion. There's more money in streaming and distributing your own movies than there is in the crazy amount of advertising that goes into blockbuster movies.

41 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

So long as you constantly qualify what you're saying..."the census is not an accurate count, but only an indication, and represents nothing but what has passed through the doors at CGC"...sure. 

Nothing to qualify and I appreciate the jab. Accuracy and meaning are different words. As I said, I agree with your point, but you can't state with certainty that no measurable amount of meaning can be derived from the census. In fact your point confirms this.

In the early years of CGC, buyers paid big money for bronze age 9.8s believing that the accuracy of the census indicated only a few copies in existence. They lost their money because the census eventually showed that there were in fact hundreds to thousands. Case in point...

22 hours ago, LordRahl said:

Can people just stop quoting how many copies there are in the census? It's completely irrelevant how many total copies there are graded. 2 or 20,000... doesn't matter. Demand is what matters. You can have only 2 copies of a book in the census and if not one person wants that book, it doesn't matter that there are only 2 graded... it still won't sell for squat. 20,000 copies of ASM 300? Sure, but 100,000 people want one.

Tell this to GA collectors

28 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The census only gives the broadest indications of what might exist, like "broadly, the census indicates that Hulk #1 is probably scarcer, in all grades, than AF #15. But that is only an indication."

It is a mistake to use it for any meaningful comparison. It only tells us the most potential copies that have been slabbed. It doesn't even give an accurate count of what actually is slabbed, much of the time.

Check out http://www.cgcdata.com/cgc/ to get an idea of how ratios change over time.

While I agree with your point, you can definitely use it for meaningful comparison. 

The idea that a warehouse exists with 1000 copies of high grade hulk 1s is not entirely impossible so it should be considered. However, the probability that said warehouse doesn't exist is much higher. 

Where it lacks the most is the amount of issues that have been cracked/pressed with complete disregard to the census.

Isn't it also a buyer's incentive to not want the sale price listed? In some cases yes, but in others where they are getting a good deal they would definitely want to keep that information to themselves. There's just too many variables to accurately keep an aggregate on raw sales. GPA is limiting already with sales tax now thrown in and ebay coupons.

4 minutes ago, entalmighty1 said:

I bet they could list a poodle, call it a VG/F, and 6 people would take it before they realized they just bought a dog.

16 minutes ago, Ricksneatstuff said:

I figured this whole thing out right from _____________ and Lightning 

I buy books that I think are cool when I see prices where I can buy them for less than I think they are worth and then I sell them for (in most cases) still a little less than I think they are worth. I don't know if anyone has noticed but I am not doing that with books that don't appeal to me- I only do it with stuff I enjoy having my hands on. It would be easier and less trackable to do it with bronze and silver books but they do not appeal to me as much. Often I buy a book here with no intention of selling it and then get another copy in between the time I bought it and the time it arrives at my doorstep- at least sometimes that happens. I don't know if anyone has ever noticed but pretty much every penny goes right back into buying even more comics here and on other venues from the very same community of people that are right here- that is a BIG factor in this- the money from my selling stays swirling within comicdom. This ain't for my rent. This is a small community. I am under no illusion that my buying and selling is a mystery to anyone. There is NO difference in my mind between what I am doing though and what anyone is doing who sells books to buy more except I do it quicker and more frequently than most. 

Also, for what it's worth, many times I end up selling books for exactly what I paid or often even less than I paid. I don't gloat over the "wins" and I try not to cry over the losses. I don't know if anyone notices the times I buy a book here on the boards and then later end up selling it for as low as half of what I paid because of undisclosed resto or some other problem that I didn't see when I bought it. I recently sold a Contact 12 for a few hundred less than I paid because I missed there was a missing page. It is not worth the hassle in most cases to burden the original seller with the return. I will just take the loss because I can afford it and pass on a savings to someone else.

In the case of Thun'da 1 I won a fair and square auction with a tracking snipe that was well below market value even if the book was 5.5-6.0, which is where it really fell- not 7.5. I even bought another Thun'da in the mean time from a boardie (more money for the comic people here) just to go with it. I looked at it and decided I didn't like the back cover defects and priced it at what is still a fair price. I thought about grading it and waiting for it to come back and selling it but thought it would be better to leave it up to the next owner who might like to see the Frazetta art inside.

The fun of buying and selling is a massive part of what I like about comics. I remember as a kid with baseball cards buying and selling and trading- fun stuff! The "flipper engine" is on in comics and it is not turning back- even when I had a shop 25 years ago I had guys constantly coming in doing the same thing. It is part of the current that keeps the waves going. I just appreciate when it stays inside the playground. I see a lot of young guys who get into this excited about the economic growth aspect of the hobby. They buy books and sell books aggressively with the goal that one day they will have a Cap America 1 and Batman 1. COOL!!!! I was a middle aged guy who came back to this hobby with the same kind of ideas. I guess I just don't see the harm.

That is my perspective on the topic anyway. Happy hunting to all.  

Agreed, buy to sell comes with the hobby. For some, the thrill of it beats storing books.

7 minutes ago, skypinkblu said:

No one would sell at these huge mark ups if they had no buyers. I think some people feel that unless you research for 12 hours and know the going rate, all is fair in love and comic book selling.

It's one reason i WISH people would leave their prices up when they sell a book. Editing them doesn't help the next guy and frankly ...seems to be part of some kind of agenda that I'm not comfortable with.

Saying people need to research is fine, but hiding the facts so it's hard for them to research...not so fine.

Especially in GA sales where no matter how much you research, you can still have nothing to go off of.

3 minutes ago, KPR Comics said:

But it's still for sale on the boards 

I have no idea anymore. I dont see a problem with finding a good sale on ebay and accurately grading to sell here. I DO have a problem with someone buying accurate grades here and scam flipping on eBay.

That was the point of my story and plenty of people do it.

1 minute ago, KPR Comics said:

Hands up if you are 100% confused.  

Guy buys a book advertise on ebay as a 7.5.  Posts on here as a 5.5.

What am I missing?

Its the opposite I believe. The seller is sparklecity comics. Buys a book on here as a 5.5 and lists it on eBay as a 7.5 with neglect to obvious flaws. 

3 minutes ago, entalmighty1 said:

I don't think those are the same people.

You might be right, I found an old thread months ago that talked about the ebay seller in question.

30 minutes ago, faster friends said:

Spill it. 

Ebay seller lists a raw X-men 94 NM under auction. Ebay seller uses spam account to start a bid war with me to get the price high (I know this because the counter bidder had 0 stars). After receiving the book, I gave it a once over before putting it into my short box. I was moving at the time from AZ to CT so it wasn't high priority and the book honestly looks like a 9.4 from the front.

After the move, I was organizing my collection and decided to pull it out before sending it in to CGC. I opened the issue to find staining on interior pages that had permeated from the front cover. Staining was hidden on the front due to the dark colors of the cover. All in all, the purchase will cost me ~$600. I imagine this book was sold on the boards for what it really is, which is a ~7.5ish at $300. Furious, but I understand my neglect at not being thorough. 

EBay seller is Sparklecitycomics or what he goes by on the boards, vintagecomics