RonS2112

Well, it's at $30K with 17 hours left, so at the very least that book is holding steady.

Have been going to my local small-ish con since it started back up in Jan. No issues at all -- masks are required and the number of folks in the room at one time is limited. Can't beat the selection or the great deals to be had. And only $3 to get in. In fact, there's another coming up this Sunday!

I think the first two bullets are absolutely true. Exhibit A being the sudden proliferation of slab-n-flip Youtube influencers. There's absolutely no indication that any of these guys have any appreciation for what's between the covers of the slabs they are flipping. Have any of them READ ASM 300? Could any of them name any book Bill Mantlo has written? To me this is evidence of an easy-in, easy-out collecting mentality, and most of the guys doing "haul" videos are going to lose interest the second the cracks in the market start to show.

VA does have capacity limits, but until recently this particular con was able to stay within those limits. Healthy attendance, but not too crowded. What I call "modern" is kinda fuzzy. Generally 1993 onward, with a focus on the last five years I buy a bit of everything, so "modern" isn't a negative to me, but a focus on modern does seem to describe a certain demographic of seller and buyer. And I never said people coming to shows was a bad thing. I was responding to a question on whether the "influx of hobbyists" was "real" and I was presenting a point to indicate that it was in fact, a real thing. Furthermore, the sellers I have a relationship with at this local con are still selling (to me) at pre-2020 prices. And I don't think I'm unique in that. These guys need to make a living and so they need to sell. Along those lines, I think more of this behavior as the bigger cons heat up will go a long way towards popping this current bubble.

This is a great summary of the current process. I wonder what happens when 2-3 month delays at CGC start to cause some of these guys to miss the peak 9.8 prices as defined by the hot Disney+ character of the week.......?

Well, at my local con (held in a firehouse in Northern VA), attendance is at an all-time high these last couple months. To the point where parking is suddenly hard to find and attendance has to be metered, with a line out the door. (No, not a result of COVID -- this con has been taking place before COVID and throughout COVID, and this peak in attendance is a new thing). You'll likely also take this as anecdotal, but I'm noticing more vendors dealing exclusively in modern books (one of which was situated right next to Gene Carpenter and his stunning collection of pre-code Horror, War and beautiful SA books. The effect was almost comical). Also at the local con, the influx of new guys seem to be concentrating at the card vendors first, then moving over to the comic vendors -- they're on opposite sides of the view.

I agree with your points. Referencing the highlighted text, I wonder about the demographics of these buyers paying inflated prices. Are they just people using stimulus money they don't need? (I still find that theory a bit hard to swallow -- anyone who makes little enough to get the stimulus checks probably needs that money for something other than comics). Or are these people really dumb enough to leverage rent/tuition money into these purchases because they feel they'll for sure get rich?

Given the volatility and craziness surrounding prices in the 9.8 tier lately, I’m interested in the group’s take on the following: do 9.8 prices drive prices in lower grades? Or is 9.8 such “rarefied air” that it’s totally insulated from say, 5.0 to 7.0 pricing?

You guys are more generous than I am. I'm willing to bet that your average "haul-n-flip" Youtuber has no clue about the writers, artists, and creators behind the books they're buying. It's all about the MCU.

This actually happened: 'Action Comics' #1 found in wall of house sells for $175,000 (cbr.com)

Great article! I think the author hit it right on the head. But the difference today is that the pendulum seems to swing faster. It won't take as long for the bubbles to burst as it did in the 1990's or the 1920's.

I think it's absolutely a "thing." Which is why these Youtubers are refered to as "Influencers." But I don't think it can last forever. When the sheep move on to the newest flavor of the week, the prices will be coming back down. As someone else pointed out, it's already starting with the sports cards.

I agree with you, and it seems like ALL comic Youtubers are on this bandwagon now. The problem is that they all have their group of sycophants.

Yes, but you are talking from the perspective of a person who's into the market for the long haul. The equivalent would be someone (like me) whobought their 70's and 80's comics off the rack at cover price. That isn't generally the kind of person who causes bubbles in a market. It's the short-term get-rich-quick guy we're talking about.

You are fundamentally correct, but your post misses part of the story. By the time "a lot of people were making a ton of money," the writing was on the wall. People were still buying and selling sub-prime loans in 2006, even though they knew there was going to be a reckoning in 2007-08. Because they were at that point gambling on their ability to pass off that "hot potato" loan to another buyer. And many succeeded. It's the guy who gets stuck holding the hot potato who ultimately takes it in the shorts. I see a lot of parallels to the comic spec market right now.

I love it that some of you guys seem to have a mental image of "Mr. Rich Fat Cat Collector." This image seems to assume some guy who lucked into his money, and is serious enough about comic collecting that he's going to keep his books forever, but remains ignorant enough about the hobby that he's still willing to acquire his version of Micronauts #33 at a crazy price. How many of this sort of individual do you think exists? It's a lot easier for me to imagine a stereotypical hipster who read an article about getting rich flipping comic books and is now spending crazy $$$ because he's pretty sure the next buyer is still out there.

Wow.....your post really misses the boat. "....people who either HAD a lot of money to begin with or weren't affected all that much by COVID". OR they are people over-leveraging themselves with money they don't have, because they think they can make the easy buck. And THOSE are the people who are going to bail the first time they get left holding the bag on a book on which they spent 3x what they should have.

One could at least make the argument that Hulk 181 introduces the most popular character to come out of the 80s and that the Transformers book was always undervalued, as is most of Mantlo's work. But it's worse than that. When some goof pays $1700 for West Coast Avengers 45, presumably not understanding that the same money would get him an 8.0 Avengers #57, then we're now talking about guys flipping bits of plastic. It's not fundamentally about the comic collecting hobby anymore.

I think you hit it right on the head. Last week, West Coast Avengers 45 -- a dollar-bin favorite if ever there was one -- sold for $1680 in 9.8 condition. Now, for that same money, Avengers 57 -- the first-ever Vision appearance -- could have been had in 9.0 or 9.2. It's this kind of crazy-stupid behavior that convinces me more than ever that there's a huge spec-bubble just waiting to burst. And I think it's going to happen in May/June, when resurgence of big cons meets a mostly-COVID-vaccinated group of buyers.

Working musician here, and you have it backwards. It used to be that the bulk of a musician's income was from record sales. Tours were to sell albums -- remember seeing your favorite band for $12 as recently as the early nineties? Two things flip-flopped that model: 1) Big corporate sponsorship of major tours, once they realized that people would still pay $30, $50, or even $100 to see their favorite act. 2) Music piracy, starting with Napster, which drove album sales down to a secondary revenue stream. As a corollary, its why buying a t-shirt at that concert will set you back $40.

I know it's not manga, but "Avatar: The Last Airbender" both in cartoon and comic book form is trending HUGE with my 13-YO son and seemingly all of his friends.

So again, you originally said "high quality" and are now moving the goalposts. But sure....insofar as Gene normally displays Atlas and early Marvels that look like they fell off the rack yesterday, I'll have a few photos after the next con.

Yeesh. You’re impossible. Per my earlier post, last time was at my local con — two weeks ago. Next time will be two weeks from now.

What you said was "high grade, unpressed silver". That's what's in those pictures, and he's but one of at least three dealers with that kind of inventory at my local con.

Well, judge for yourself -- here are a couple photos of the typical display he sets up at Annanndale. Certainly more and in much better quality than I could hope to own.