RonS2112

On 6/11/2021 at 5:45 PM, MGsimba77 said:

We should have a clearer picture of this in ~ 8 days when the current HA auction closes. There's an IH180 9.8 that I think may be a good bellwether ending a bit sooner. We shall see.

Well, it's at $30K with 17 hours left, so at the very least that book is holding steady.

Have been going to my local small-ish con since it started back up in Jan.  No issues at all -- masks are required and the number of folks in the room at one time is limited.  Can't beat the selection or the great deals to be had.  And only $3 to get in.  In fact, there's another coming up this Sunday!

9 minutes ago, RedGiant said:

Melt-up? 

Probably... well in many cases, but it depends on what book you are talking about and your time range.  Who really knows, I don't.  I can tell you I've been buying and selling comics for about 35 years and I've NEVER seen anything like the last 4-6 months, EVER - not in back issues at least.  I guess that puts me in the old guard category.

For those who aren't finance junkies here are cliffsnotes from Investopedia:

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• A melt-up is a sudden, persistent rise in the price of a security or market, often due to investor herding.
• Melt ups are not necessarily indicative of a fundamental shift and may reflect market psychology instead.
• Poor decisions to buy in to a melt-up can be avoided by focusing on economic indicators that provide an overall picture of the health of the US economy or on the fundamentals of a stock.

 

 

I think the first two bullets are absolutely true.  Exhibit A being the sudden proliferation of slab-n-flip Youtube influencers.  There's absolutely no indication that any of these guys have any appreciation for what's between the covers of the slabs they are flipping.  Have any of them READ ASM 300?  Could any of them name any book Bill Mantlo has written?  To me this is evidence of an easy-in, easy-out collecting mentality, and most of the guys doing "haul" videos are going to lose interest the second the cracks in the market start to show.

44 minutes ago, the blob said:

Does/did VA have capacity restrictions for events like this?

I'd go to a con now. I've been vaccinated. I am pretty comfortable about masks and such.

I would not have gone in August.

There is a lot of pent up demand for this stuff.

Ebay is fine and all, but paying $4-8 shipping on every order and taxes makes a lot of books not worth buying. If you're buying a $15 book you practically need it to double in value for it to begin to be worth selling. Even a $30 book often costs $38 after shipping and taxes. You need a 50% bump to begin to break even.

Shipping (and taxes) are what make me decide not to buy stuff. So I am tending to buy more expensive stuff where the shipping is less of a portion of the price.

So I can totally see why shows are the place to go.

Also, what do you consider a modern book? Stuff from the last 5 years or stuff from 1993 onward?

And since when is people coming to shows a bad thing? I'd see folks posting pic of small local shows over the years and, frankly, they looked empty and depressing. The guy in Buffalo, those pics are sad. 

 

VA does have capacity limits, but until recently this particular con was able to stay within those limits.  Healthy attendance, but not too crowded.

What I call "modern" is kinda fuzzy.  Generally 1993 onward, with a focus on the last five years  I buy a bit of everything, so "modern" isn't a negative to me, but a focus on modern does seem to describe a certain demographic of seller and buyer.

And I never said people coming to shows was a bad thing.  I was responding to a question on whether the "influx of hobbyists" was "real" and I was presenting a point to indicate that it was in fact, a real thing.  Furthermore, the sellers I have a relationship with at this local con are still selling (to me) at pre-2020 prices.  And I don't think I'm unique in that.  These guys need to make a living and so they need to sell.  Along those lines, I think more of this behavior as the bigger cons heat up will go a long way towards popping this current bubble.

1 hour ago, blazingbob said:

Of course,  pop them through the toaster,  press them up,  post them and come back throwing $20's to everyone.  Get those attaboys in the copper forum,  add them to the "What's hot on ebay" and Thor 339's start coming out of the woodwork.

The Dealer Happy meal budget is increased to Chik Fil A across the board.

Save a life today

 

This is a great summary of the current process.  I wonder what happens when 2-3 month delays at CGC start to cause some of these guys to miss the peak 9.8 prices as defined by the hot Disney+ character of the week.......?

50 minutes ago, the blob said:

Other than anecdotal "I heard guys in the store", what is the evidence that these enormous increases for many books are due to folks who weren't interested in comics a year ago? i've been reading here about "card guys" going back into comics for 15 years. We see new folks showing up here getting into comics. They spend money on stuff old geezers think is nuts (says the guy who just spend $250 on a Goon 2 9.8...). And new guys sometimes stick. I got back into comics in 1993 after having lost interest since about 1985/1986. I was a new guy then. I think plenty of people here got back into them. Sure, it is true, some of the card guys may have never been into them and there isn't that childhood nostalgia thing going on, but I honestly don't think that is what has kept me in for almost 30 years.

I do try to look at my buyers to gauge whether they are long term or short term collectors, but I'm not selling slabs, mostly, although I am selling hot books. The guy who paid $75 for my raw MCP 72 looks like he has been buying comics on the account since 2018. more recently he has a few sales. My guess he is thinking of getting it pressed and slabbed. And with 9.6 prices where they are, maybe not a bad idea. the guy who paid $50 for my wolverine 88 does look like he was a card guy. the guy who paid $45 for my sam wilson 3 has been a comics guy for a while. the guy who paid hundreds for my FF Annual 6 has been a comics guy for a while. the guy who paid $125 for my SIKTC has been buying comics a while, looks like he is probably getting it slabbed to flip. my triple digit thundercats buyers seem to be nostalgia buys, although both dabble in comics. Anyway, I'm throwing these out there because these were definitely 2021 prices sales. Some random BA Cap book selling for $15-20 because folks got interested in Cap/Falcon due to the show is a bit different.

 

Well, at my local con (held in a firehouse in Northern VA), attendance is at an all-time high these last couple months.  To the point where parking is suddenly hard to find and attendance has to be metered, with a line out the door.  (No, not a result of COVID -- this con has been taking place before COVID and throughout COVID, and this peak in attendance is a new thing).

You'll likely also take this as anecdotal, but I'm noticing more vendors dealing exclusively in modern books (one of which was situated right next to Gene Carpenter and his stunning collection of pre-code Horror, War and beautiful SA books.  The effect was almost comical).  Also at the local con, the influx of new guys seem to be concentrating at the card vendors first, then moving over to the comic vendors -- they're on opposite sides of the view.

10 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Most of these new buyers don't read or actually care about comic books. They don't even know what they're buying, let alone why. Those of them who argue that the Census counts are so small certainly don't have the slightest  clue about how much more is out there that hasn't yet made it's way to CGC. But I'm supposed to believe they're going to keep paying ever-increasing prices or even maintain current prices?

I agree with your points.  Referencing the highlighted text, I wonder about the demographics of these buyers paying inflated prices.  Are they just people using stimulus money they don't need? (I still find that theory a bit hard to swallow -- anyone who makes little enough to get the stimulus checks probably needs that money for something other than comics).  Or are these people really dumb enough to leverage rent/tuition money into these purchases because they feel they'll for sure get rich?

Given the volatility and craziness surrounding prices in the 9.8 tier lately, I’m interested in the group’s take on the following: do 9.8 prices drive prices in lower grades? Or is 9.8 such “rarefied air” that it’s totally insulated from say, 5.0 to 7.0 pricing?

You guys are more generous than I am.  I'm willing to bet that your average "haul-n-flip" Youtuber has no clue about the writers, artists, and creators behind the books they're buying.  It's all about the MCU.

1 hour ago, cortown71 said:

So here's a true story I could use to incorporate a time travel plot.

Our house was built in the 1890s. A lot of it is unchanged.we renovated the very back room to a large living family space area.during the process,within the walls we found many arcade and hubbley tin trucks,motorcycles and an airplane.we also found many liquior bottles.this was done during prohibition.

So to the point.i would go around to all the local newsstands.purchase 10 AC1s also get some paper bags.put all 10 in paper bags as safe as i could,maybe even make a cardboard backer.now here's where I can go with 2 scenarios. Either sneak into that back room which may or may not even be locked back then and drop my books behind the wall. Or I could also hide them under one of my front porches.yes there are 2 on my house.unchanged since probably the early 1900s.the area is dry and raised under them.

So yeah I have 10 nm copies of AC 1.

This actually happened:

'Action Comics' #1 found in wall of house sells for $175,000 (cbr.com)

On 4/13/2021 at 12:17 PM, HouseofComics.Com said:

Reminds me of this piece from yesterday:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/opinion/biden-economy-culture.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

When markets are booming, everyone wants to talk about markets. The whole culture shifts.

Great article!  I think the author hit it right on the head.  But the difference today is that the pendulum seems to swing faster.  It won't take as long for the bubbles to burst as it did in the 1990's or the 1920's.

On 4/11/2021 at 10:17 AM, Buzzetta said:

You might be very right as to that being a cause of the drive up in prices.   I was asked to watch a comic collecting show in twitch a little while back.  The guys on the show were quoting results for high grade marvel keys and then showing a 5.5 from their person collection or a raw copy.   The comment section was eating it up.  I pointed out what they were doing and they stammered and worked around their words. 

To use an example of a current result as I forget the specific data on the book I called them out on.   

Let's say they quote a hammer price of ASM 300 in 9.8 at $5,000.  Then they would hold up either a raw copy or a 9.2 and say that this book "could" be worth that.  Now you have people going bonkers that any ASM 300 could be worth that and buy into the hype. 

Is it driving up pricing?  You might be on to something there.  I figured that no one really pays attention to these guys but they seem to have an audience cheering them on.  I guess that audience is supporting the price increase. 

 I think it's absolutely a "thing."  Which is why these Youtubers are refered to as "Influencers."  But I don't think it can last forever.  When the sheep move on to the newest flavor of the week, the prices will be coming back down.  As someone else pointed out, it's already starting with the sports cards.

On 4/10/2021 at 3:03 PM, DavidTheDavid said:

The YouTube pundits are the worst. You see similar self-appointed technical analysts for cryptocurrency, and, I assume, other alt asset classes. They pull up some chart or table and proceed to b.s. elaborately. Bonus points for using a markup app to draw some lines on the screen.

I agree with you, and it seems like ALL comic Youtubers are on this bandwagon now.  The problem is that they all have their group of sycophants.

On 3/24/2021 at 11:45 PM, Poekaymon said:

This is a great example of the mistake people make out of fear.  Worrying that it's going to drop a bunch of points is exactly what I meant by saying that trying to time the market is a losing strategy.  In the long run, it doesn't matter if it drops a bunch of points.   

I'm probably into the ocean here, but I'll spend one paragraph trying to explain.  You might be surprised to know that even if you had somehow managed to invest at all the worst times in history, as in, right at the peak of every bubble we've ever had, and precisely the night before "you hear the pucker all around the world," you're still vastly in the money today?  To put it another way, investing at absolutely the wrong times still beats not investing at all.  This is not an opinion, it is mathematical fact.  

 

Yes, but you are talking from the perspective of a person who's into the market for the long haul.  The equivalent would be someone (like me) whobought their 70's and 80's comics off the rack at cover price.  That isn't generally the kind of person who causes bubbles in a market.  It's the short-term get-rich-quick guy we're talking about.

On 3/24/2021 at 9:05 PM, Randall Ries said:

Because a lot of people were making a ton of money from it, I guess. At that time, a 6% interest rate seemed low. Seems like they were pushing low interest rates pretty hard.

I remember when it all ended. One of my clients was elderly and her goal was to have 1 million in her savings account. She had a clothing boutique in Manhattan and sold it. Retired. She saved that money and was saving more. She got to 947,000. I showed up one day and she had lost half of her savings. A lot of people got virtually cut in half.

Enron bailed out. The housing market took it in the pants. People lost their 401k's. The value of their houses. Their jobs. Their retirement savings. People who were working and trying to invest. And lost. And people laughed. "Oh I'll just buy low, now! Har har har!" Right. Criminals stole their money legally and had the nerve to laugh.

You are fundamentally correct, but your post misses part of the story.  By the time "a lot of people were making a ton of money," the writing was on the wall.  People were still buying and selling sub-prime loans in 2006, even though they knew there was going to be a reckoning in 2007-08.  Because they were at that point gambling on their ability to pass off that "hot potato" loan to another buyer.  And many succeeded.  It's the guy who gets stuck holding the hot potato who ultimately takes it in the shorts.

I see a lot of parallels to the comic spec market right now.

On 3/24/2021 at 6:43 PM, IronMan_Cave said:

Why a lull in the market cause people to panic? You assume only speculators buying these items at inflated prices.....you ignore that there are some really rich collectors buying these with no intention of selling or no intention to make profit out of it

 

I love it that some of you guys seem to have a mental image of "Mr. Rich Fat Cat Collector." This image seems to assume some guy who lucked into his money, and is serious enough about comic collecting that he's going to keep his books forever, but remains ignorant enough about the hobby that he's still willing to acquire his version of Micronauts #33 at a crazy price.  How many of this sort of individual do you think exists?

It's a lot easier for me to imagine a stereotypical hipster who read an article about getting rich flipping comic books and is now spending crazy $$$ because he's pretty sure the next buyer is still out there.

On 3/24/2021 at 4:26 PM, Randall Ries said:

So what we are seeing HERE is a bunch of people who either HAD a lot of money to begin with or weren't affected all that much by COVID. They could work from home or telecommute or whatever it is that they did. Their income wasn't affected. NOT the case with us or restaurants or bars or anywhere that one would go out to so they could blow their cash, etc. Like concerts. Small venues shuttered. Musicians doing webcasts instead.
 

Wow.....your post really misses the boat.

"....people who either HAD a lot of money to begin with or weren't affected all that much by COVID".  OR they are people over-leveraging themselves with money they don't have, because they think they can make the easy buck.  And THOSE are the people who are going to bail the first time they get left holding the bag on a book on which they spent 3x what they should have.

On 3/24/2021 at 3:33 PM, Randall Ries said:

You are welcome. I thought it deserved some attention and not just getting glossed over. The article is a bit scattered but likely geared toward people who have no idea about this market. Still run into people who are amazed at what sums comic books can yield. Mentioned a sale of a Bat 1 for over a mill to a kid I buy coffee from. He said "Wow! I'll have to check and see if I have one of those!" Truly was amazed and flabbergasted. Sure. LMK if you do. Pretty sure he DOESN'T "have one of those". Nice lad, though.

And it was the sports card thing that got me reading about all this. They really were dead in the water only a few months ago. Suddenly they were on fire. Then start seeing people paying goofy money for IH 181. Goofier than usual. Then the 9.8 Transformers book. Nah. That's more than some 30 something with feelings of nostalgia. Something is not right, here.

As a small business owner, I took all the "help" I could get. If we fail, well, I am too old to be doing what I used to do. Body is beginning to fail. We pay more taxes than most people typically do and so I felt absolutely FINE with it.

One could at least make the argument that Hulk 181 introduces the most popular character to come out of the 80s and that the Transformers book was always undervalued, as is most of Mantlo's work.  But it's worse than that.  When some goof pays $1700 for West Coast Avengers 45, presumably not understanding that the same money would get him an 8.0 Avengers #57, then we're now talking about guys flipping bits of plastic.  It's not fundamentally about the comic collecting hobby anymore.

On 3/1/2021 at 10:34 PM, comicginger1789 said:

Wandavision has caused more books than ever to spike I feel.

First Mephisto, first Grim Reaper, first Agatha Harkness, first Wonder Man, first Nexus, first Modred, first Chthon, first Immortus, first Monica Rambeau, first Darkhold, first Wandas kids, first Arcanna, first SWORD, first White Vision.

All books that you could have had in decent shape for maybe $500-700 if you tried to buy them all. Now? Insanity that people are paying what they are for some of these. Who are these people? Are they thinking they are getting the next big book? Do they not realize in the month or two after Wandavision, more than half those books are gonna plummet hard? Do they see Agatha Harkness and think “oh lord yes my favourite character of all time FINALLY getting her dues!”

Or am I the one missing out 😳

I think you hit it right on the head.  Last week, West Coast Avengers 45 -- a dollar-bin favorite if ever there was one -- sold for $1680 in 9.8 condition.  Now, for that same money, Avengers 57 -- the first-ever Vision appearance -- could have been had in 9.0 or 9.2.  

It's this kind of crazy-stupid behavior that convinces me more than ever that there's a huge spec-bubble just waiting to burst.  And I think it's going to happen in May/June, when resurgence of big cons meets a mostly-COVID-vaccinated group of buyers.

6 hours ago, Coverless 9.8 said:

I'm not sure if comic store owners would feel the same way.  Musicians make the bulk of their money touring.  They've yet to pirate the live experience, so that's why concert tickets are such an exorbitant sum.  It's the one place artists can be sure to get paid.  https://investinganswers.com/articles/who-really-profits-your-itunes-downloads

Working musician here, and you have it backwards.  It used to be that the bulk of a musician's income was from record sales.  Tours were to sell albums -- remember seeing your favorite band for $12 as recently as the early nineties?  Two things flip-flopped that model: 1) Big corporate sponsorship of major tours, once they realized that people would still pay $30, $50, or even $100 to see their favorite act.  2) Music piracy, starting with Napster, which drove album sales down to a secondary revenue stream.  As a corollary, its why buying a t-shirt at that concert will set you back $40.

I know it's not manga, but "Avatar: The Last Airbender" both in cartoon and comic book form is trending HUGE with my 13-YO son and seemingly all of his friends.

46 minutes ago, namisgr said:

Take some photos and post them, please.  We'd all enjoy seeing raw early SA keys in VF/NM or better grade.

 

So again, you originally said "high quality" and are now moving the goalposts.  But sure....insofar as Gene normally displays Atlas and early Marvels that look like they fell off the rack yesterday, I'll have a few photos after the next con.

25 minutes ago, namisgr said:

When you wrote " And this included rows and rows of beautiful unslabbed early keys, in some of the best grades I've ever seen", I assumed you were speaking of early keys in VF/NM and better condition.  

It sounds to me like we're in agreement, then, that near mint level unslabbed early silver is virtually impossible to find, but beautiful non-key raw books of slightly lesser grade like the cgc 8.5 I posted may still be obtainable.  And when was the last time you found an unrestored major SA key in VF/NM or better condition that wasn't slabbed?  

Yeesh.  You’re impossible.  Per my earlier post, last time was at my local con — two weeks ago.  Next time will be two weeks from now.

22 minutes ago, namisgr said:

Like I said, Gene is a topnotch dealer and he has terrific inventory.  But what he doesn't have is row after row of near mint unslabbed early Silver Age Marvels, Atlas, or DCs.  That was what was being lamented in the thread as being almost impossible to find these days.

What you said was "high grade, unpressed silver".  That's what's in those pictures, and he's but one of at least three dealers with that kind of inventory at my local con.

Well, judge for yourself -- here are a couple photos of the typical display he sets up at Annanndale.  Certainly more and in much better quality than I could hope to own.