Aman619

why are you distorting my point? Am I ridiculous? You seem hellbent to prove I am with your replies extrapolating bits of what I am saying.

In your example of two adjacent "common books, the 9.4s should sell for the same prices. Where have I said that a MUCH more common book would sell for MORE than a "scarcer" book in the same grade?

What Im saying, to use your example, is this: Here's you sample data again, but in my scenario, the best copies are a lone 9.6 and a lone 9.2.

I dont think the 9.6 should sell for 10x (or whatever the multiple is for 9.6 compared to 9.2) more than the 9.2. Because both are far and away the BEST copies, IMO IT IS IRRELEVANT that one is two grades higher than the other.

CM #49

8.0 1 copy

8.5 0 copies

9.0 0 copies

9.2 1 copies

9.4 0 copies

9.6 0 copies

CM #50

8.0 1 copy

8.5 0 copies

9.0 0 copies

9.2 0 copies

9.4 0 copies

9.6 1 copies

Foithermore, your example sugests that I should have been more specific about which books Im talking about.... Ifeel this applies to "one-of-a-kind books: #1s, keys etc. where the BEST copy stands pretty much alone. NOT to mid-run commons as in you example.

AND -- the onlyother time this 'rule' does not apply, is when I OWN the lone 9.6!! Then its worth more money than God!!

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

 

 

This theory will only work on the assumption that ALL of the existing high grade copies have already been graded. Right now this is not very likely since CGC is still relatively new. Most of the long-term collectors with high grade books have not even given any thought to getting their books CGC'd yet since they don't have any current intention of selling.

I agree wholeheartedly .... for Modern Bronze and Silver. But specifically in this case, and generally for similar books, I am talking about the 9.4 Human Torch, and some of the wildly nice MH lesser #1s (Crack, Wow etc) where the best copy, whether 9.2 4 or 6 or even 8 is less important than the fact that its the best copy and where we can already assume that the census will not change dramatically.

Lots more books to be graded sitting in collections....but not so many for early GA in HG..Agree?? Timely has an awesome collection, I presume, Geppi has a warehouse rivalling the last scene in Indiana Jones. But How many other Human Torch #1s above 9.0 do you think there are?

your first interpretation was off the mark. But the second was right on the money.

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

If the best is a 9.2, or 9.4 or 9.6, why should the levels of multiples still apply??? The best copy in this case is not "competing" with books in all levels of grade. Why step up the price as you get to the best?

IMO, for any books with copies in all grades, if a 9.2 sells for 10K, and a 9.4 for 20K, a 9.6 would be worth 30K or whatever the appropriate multiplier is. But for a book with only an 8.5 and a 9.6, Im saying the 9.6 is only "worth" a number greater than the 8.5 - - NOT the same number that the 9.6 in the heavily populated census would earn.

The seller can ASK for the same multiple..but IMO, the buyer would be crazy to pay that number.

Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade

Do you actually care if your copy is a 9.4 or a 9.6 if its the BEST copy? When you were buying HG pedigrees, you paid for the name because it generally meant that you were buying one of the best existing copies. But noone really knew which was really nicer : MH, Allentown, Larsen etc. (except for a select few who had actually seen both over the years...but never at the same time)

Now suddenly CGC has seen and graded many of them. Do you really put so much stock in their number system that you'd pay twice as much for the lone 9.6 as the lone 9.4 if the next best copy was an 8.5 or 9.0??? I dont!

also, for me, if the best copy is 9.4 and the next best copies are 8.5. 8 and 7.5s, Its th ebest copy period, and theres no need for the usual CGC multiples to even apply to the price. The multiples are for issues for which copies in ALL grades exist to choose from, and the prices increase every step up the ladder. I have a big problem with the CGC 9.4 multiple for books with one HG copy. If thsi were a 9.8 should it sell for $300K?? NO. Its still just the best copy....and should be priced more than all others...with no pre-ordained multiple involved.

Any one who buys a six-figure comic book, whether hes a multi-millionaire or just getting by. is looking at that purchase as an investment. He has parked money in the comic, and expects to make money on it. To say that he's just buying what he likes just never does it for me.

I posted this essay because of the faulty logic inherent in it, and that the arguments put forth were so self-serving. And contradict themselves. Human Torch is no Action#1. The huge price jumps since 1885 are not necessarily going to replicate themselves in the next 16 years. (This Torch#1 would sell for 5 million if that were true) .

I missed the other thread..thanx for the heads up.

PGCMint has a new "article" up on their website. Its a rant on why buying the best at any price is the smart way to go. He cites the MH Action#1 sale at $20K, and the White Mountain sales of AF15 and ASM#1 as evidence to prove that his recent purchase of the 9.4 Human Torch1 was just such a smart buy on a par with those deals.... and, of course, that the same comic, now for sale at 'only' 3.4xGuide is very reasonable!

...But it seems he forgot that all those previous great deals only looked smart after at least ten years had gone by...

Read it for yourself:

I remember when a NM copy of Action Comics #1 sold for $20,000.00 to a private collector back in the early 1980's. The hobby was buzzing with all kinds of questions and comments, which is normal considering that a record price was just realized for a comic book. Most of the questions were, "who was the collector?", as dealers desperately wanted his name. Why? To sell him more books of course. I remember he was simply known as THE DENTIST and only a small circle of people knew his name.

What followed this amazing transaction was a series of gossip (actually a mountain of it) by disgruntled dealers, giving their opinion on this historic sale. I heard statements like this - "The sale was bogus, he paid far less than that", and "what insufficiently_thoughtful_person would pay 20k for a comic book!?", and "----- (The dealer) really raked that poor sap over the coals!", etc. I heard this type of gossip for years.

Now, this dentist did something quite unheard of in our business. He kept the book! He did not offer it up for sale again. As the years passed, the dealers and collecting world realized just how smart that dentist was. Not some, but all lamented not buying that book when they had the chance. What is the book worth now? Can you believe he actually passed up an offer of one million dollars?! I spelled the price out so you can get a better feel for what I just said. The bottom line is that he bought the best and paid a visionary price for it. He was no dummy.

This is but one story in our hobby. There are many, many, more. Take for instance, the White Mountain copy Amazing Fantasy #15 that sold for the record price of $37,000.00 at a Sotheby's auction in the mid 1990s. So much negative gossip was spoken about that sale that the original buyer actually backed out - for a while. Or how about the collector who bought the White Mountain copy of Amazing Spider-Man #1 for a record price of $14,000.00? The gossip was that he was naive and taken advantage of.

Hmm.... both of those books ended up grading 9.4 by CGC by the way and today will easily fetch multiples of the prices paid.

The list of such sales goes on and on. And the shortsighted myopic gossip continues. Dealers will always talk, always play Monday morning quarterback to transactions made outside of their involvement. It is the same in every hobby, so comic collecting does not hold the corner on the market of foolish prattle. I remember when a certain Hockey player bought the finest known specimen of a Honus Wagner baseball card. He paid an incredible sum of money for a very rare high grade card. And for that he was called foolish. The card's condition was held suspect. The auction was put into question, etc, etc. He later sold it for a profit and it ended up reselling for over one million dollars. It now holds the position as the world's most valuable baseball card.

Last month I purchased a book that I have looked long and hard for - Human Torch #1 (1940). Since I first entered the hobby back in the late 1960s, I never have seen a true NM copy of this book. Nearly every high grade copy I saw was restored in some way. Although Bob Overstreet never listed it as scarce in NM in his price guide, I never could find one. The best that ever came through my hands was a beautiful VF back in 1998 that I immediately sold, thinking it was common in that grade (if I only knew what I know now!). When this beautiful CGC graded NM 9.4 surfaced, it is what I call a no-brainer. You do not hesitate, you buy it. It is the best. Not by a small margin either. The second best copy is an 8.5, so this was a very easy decision (Thank you CGC!). I was thrilled to get it and thrilled to be able to offer it. No other dealer in the world can offer you this book in the 9.4 grade. Until they can, opinion on value is of no value.

I have been at this too many years to be swayed by the gossip of others. My asking price of just under 3.4x guide is actually below statistics for Key #1 issues in the CGC 9.4 grade, especially if it is the only one. There is no question that time will show this to be an excellent buy, an excellent opportunity.

I made a statement a year ago, one that I am firm as ever on and it will not change. Buy the BEST and hold on to it. If you do this you will do well.

(please read my other articles for more information).

A bit of information about the Human Torch: ........(history lesson deleted...)

And given the fact that the Superman/Bradman comic is listed in Overstreet at three dollars, and I happen to know there's only one copy in circulation in the whole world outside of the Bradman family, I don't think Overstreet's valuations can be relied on here at all.

Just cause its rare doesnt means its worth more than 3 dollars. Right now only two people in the world care about it: you and them. What SHOULD it list for in Guide?

hey Pov, love the cute butterfly!

"but with no more money and no more books to buy, I decided to sell."

I'd love to see your collection, and you really talk the talk and walk the walk, as they say. (I remember your argument with Fishler last summer here, too!) So I dont understand this statement. Anyone who sets out to compete the MH collection (as Geppi did abortedly a few years ago) HAS to know what it will entail cash-wise. So running out of money CANT be the reason one decides to throw in the towel.

Why is Bucky grinning so much while been bound by chains?

theyve done it before.

I dont collect Mickeys ...but thats one spicey meat-a-ball!!!

nice segue into currrent "comic prices" but while we're on the subject, while we're on the subject. while we're on the subject (couldnt get the good old Firesign Theatre out of my head, sorry) Youre right. New comics will at LEAST $5 apop. Why not? Theyre already $2.25 to 3.95 and up to as much as 6.95 now!

And, only us old fogies who remenmber how "cheap" they used to be will even notice.

you know, you keep saying CRASH. Will it be overnight? Will all our comics drop in value like the market reopening after 9/11? Even that debacle was what only 15% in one week? Or will OUR comic scrash be 90%? Oooops, sorry your Spidey#2 is worth $200 this morning.

Or are you saying CRASH but meaning a slow decline is starting now from which the comics biz will not recover? Will it take 30 years to die off? or will it all end in 2009?

Actually what I think you are saying, in a loud annoying endless loop of a primal I-told-you-so scream is that prices will never be higher than today. Dont buy anything expecting an increase in value. And I dont buy it. I do agree that that IS TRUE for MANY comics that are selling for too much money however. But that only leaves us with what we all already know (most of us anyway): that you must be selective in what you buy and careful not to overpay. Gosh, that's sure front page news! Lots of people will make mistakes and pay $1000 for common books in high cgc grades that they will only ever sell for $400...but on the other hand, buying keys for rational multiples in high grade will be fine.

If you dont agree then sell me your hg keys at crash prices...oh yeah, you dont have any.

what, do I look like a rube???

of course. duhhh!

sigh - - - I sure miss those carefree days. Didnt have to ;ock out the kids and the cats, put on theprotective gloves and mylar table colth and open the pages only halfway so as not to crease anything!!!

ahhhhh....good ol' Rogofsky!

Ah, you're probably right, the earliest Overstreet I have is #3 and it shows Action 1 at $1000 so it makes sense they were lower in #1 and #2. That's quite a big jump over a year or two though...from $300 to $1000 in two years. Either the hobby was changing at an extremely rapid pace then, or he underestimated their value in the first guide.

Aside from the rapid solidification of comics collecting in the early 70s aided greatly by the Overstreet Guide leading to higher prices....there was a famous media-event in 1972 (I think) that goosed Action#1. A copy was sold to a young guy who paid the then "fabulously ridiculous price of $1200 for a copy! (forget the details...his story was well-known and hopefully someone else will remember the details...)

Wonder how much he sold it for...and where he is now...and if it was a pedigree copy, or not??

"There is a $40.00 comic out there right now that will sell for $1000.00 in about 20 years. I don't know which one it will be. If I did (know for sure) I'd get in line for my 10 or 20 copies. And sure, you can say it'll never happen and it will sound very much like all those 80's collectors that said Bronze Age will never be worth anything.

 

You're in the same environment now as we were back then."

 

 

There are many $1000.00 books out there now that will sell for $40.00 in about 20 years. I don't know which ones they are. If I did (know for sure), I'd sell short 10 or 20 copies of each. And sure, you can say it'll never happen and it will sound very much like all those perma-bull speculator day-traders in 1999 and 2000 that said the Nasdaq would go to 10,000 and the Dow would go to 36,000.

 

You're in the same speculative, hope & greed-driven environment now as we were back then.

 

Gene

how can red or green inks bleed through the covers when these was no red or green ink ever used in the printing of the cover, hmmm???

yeah -- what HE said!

...I think...

whatever it was he thinks he said.

(nice one POV)

But spreadsheets calculate a lot faster than Filemaker and thats a real advantage with 10000+plus items.

 

Why's that? Does FileMaker suck that badly? In general, databases should be faster at retrieving the data from disk than Excel would be, and the disk accesses take longer than the calculations do.

No--Filemaker is great and finds searched very fast..maybe faster than Excel. BUT I meant specifically "calculating"...doing the math, like adding up the total value of 5000 comics when each comics values involves a formula that takes into consideration # of copies x grade (which is a lookup value) x spread (which is necessary more and more since just plugging Overstreet NM value isnt enough anymore if some book's VF value is half of NM and others are 35%!! Some of the spreads on keys noeadays are 1:3:20, or 1:3:15 not the uniform 1:3:10 anymore. They are all over the map)

So Filemaker chugs along when asked to come up with a total that entails all these calculations, whereas Excel , well, excels at it!!!

So its a choice going in: fast total values, or very-detailed fast searches! Sorry I wasnt clearer before. I suppose if you dont expect the software to compute values, just add them up, then theres no problem either way.....but the key advantage of software to keep track of you collection is to have it crunch the numbers and tell you the estimated paper value= of it, as well as all the details of each purchase and sale, condition, grade, notes genre etc...

choosing between Excel and Filemaker is a tough one. Data bases do some things better tha spreadsheets. But spreadsheets calculate a lot faster than Filemaker and thats a real advantage with 10000+plus items. But Excel default layout is boring and will be unwieldy to work with due to the depth of all the rows you will be using. Whereas Filemaker can output the data you sort for in any layout you create for any need: total paid and profit per book or title; or inventory w/o paid info for giving for a dealer when selling. You include just the fields/columns you choose to show.

Then again, a good Excel programmer can create a very elegant and thorough database-like solution that does all of the above as well as a database. But, it may cost you $1000s to create it as detailed and perfect as you want.

good one Khaos....

BEING Ding Dong! BEING Ding Dong!!!!

You know I meant I like BEING DIng Dong, you rats!