Are comics in their infancy compared to Coins, Stamps, and Baseball Cards?

[showcase4]

...one thing I would like to see, if anyone knows how to present the info and come up with an 'apples to apple' comparison, would be a 15 year trend for a high demand, key, comparably priced ( 15 years ago ) comic ,stamp, baseball card and coin.

Something like this ( my numbers/choices may be WAY off...this is just an example. )

 

comic: Detective 27 VF

coin: 1856 fying Eagle cent MS67

baseball card: Topps #311 Mickey Mantle rookie VF/NM

stamp ?? ( I know less than nothing about stamps )

 

what they sold for in 1992, and what they sell for today ( 15 years later ) would be quite interesting to see, and the endless comparisons would also be intriguing....

 

To use a term mentioned constantly by the lawyers on the Boards, something 'substantive' ( not a word used in the mortgage industry )

[whomerjay]

How did a crash occur if the prices are higher now than they were 10-15-20-25 years ago?? That is my question to you. Just because one small segment of junk went down in price? That is how everyone here seems to be referring to this huge crash. 80s and early 90s were for the most part overproduced junk. Much of the really bad stuff lost a lot of it's value, but even there you can find stuff that has increased in value and maintains value. I just think you have to look at the big picture.

 

this is the astounding part of this "discussion". JC just want his use of the word "crash" validated, even if it is ONLY for junk that was mass produced and destined to never have any value at all having been over produced by the card companies seeking to suck up all th eeasy money while the going was good.

 

But that omits that all this junk was POSSIBLE solely BECAUSE of the older GOOD (30s thru 50s much scarcer stuff) that had increased exponentially in value in the late 80s (after the 1987 stock collapse). Similar with comics. The sales message was "Hey look at how much these cards/comics are worth if you were smart enough to stock up when they were produced!! Nows YOUR chance to get in on the ground floor!! Buy a case!! Buy 2 cases!"

 

 

The stuff that crashed (happy JC?) was destined to be worthless. So big surprise! What hasnt crashed has been the stuff that was good along and still fetched big numbers today.

 

I dont know about anyone else, but carcrawfords testimony rings a hellava lot truer than a random Canadian boy saying his local store can no longer sell tons of American-sports based cardsets! wow

 

 

The desire to see JC wrong doesn't change the facts.

 

I don't accept the premise that card prices are higher today then they were 10-25 years ago, and that only junk crashed. In 1990 I stored away (what was) about $25K in high grade cards and sets from 1948-1965 and another $25K of the same in cards from 1966-1975. Mostly key stuff I cherry picked from being a dealer for 10 years, probably even distributed between stars. semi-stars and commons. If I'm interpreting prices of today correctly, my stuff is worth less today. That's depreciation despite 17 years.

 

As ft88 points out, a lot more than the 80's 90's junk is now selling at much lower prices, going all the way back to cards in the 50's. Prices of PSA 9 and PSA 10 (or very old PSA 7/8) cards are offered as evidence of the healthy market, but these cards are akin to key BA 9.6-9.8 or SA 9.4 and HG GA. These are not in great abundance and it doesn't take a lot of people pursuing them to keep prices high. For the $30-100 cards of high grade HOF's from the 70's and 80's these prices are much LESS than what these cards traded for raw 20 years ago. Then factor in the cost of getting a card graded and the time value of money.

 

Sorry, I don't see it, all you need to do is go on ebay and see what the overwhelming majority of cards from 1948-1975 are selling for today and you see the hobby has crashed. In 1990 I had 10 friends who were ardent bb and fb fans and agressively collected pre- 1980 cards. When I talk to them now they all shake their head, lament how both the card companies and grading companies ruined the hobby, and how they haven't bought a card in years. A small number of investor/collectors chasing a small number of cards does need constitute a healthy and growing hobby.

 

[Mr. Zipper]

...something 'substantive' ( not a word used in the mortgage industry )

 

How's that industry doing these days?

 

 

[showcase4]

...something 'substantive' ( not a word used in the mortgage industry )

 

How's that industry doing these days?

 

 

 

Well, I have a $4,000 / month mortgage, and this months commission check will be $995.........so I guess you could say that all the negative things you've heard by the press really haven't effected me that much

[joe_collector]

Comics crashed.

Sportscards crashed.

Just because a market crashed doesn't mean it can't recover. It's not a death.

 

I totally agree, but it's the guys running around screaming "there was no crash, you suck, a crash never happened. AIIIEEE my eyes!!" that bug the out of me.

 

Plus, they're very selective in terms of what they use as pricing data, like someone telling you the Modern CGC market is at an all-time high, but using only sales of CGC 10.0 issues as the basis.

[joe_collector]

How did a crash occur if the prices are higher now than they were 10-15-20-25 years ago??

 

Easy - prices crashed from one market high, and then recovered, surpassing previous totals in select cases.

 

Look at the stock market. Do you not believe it crashed in 1929? OMFG!!! Prices are higher now than then - holy Cap! That must mean it never crashed - the history books are wrong, call the President!! Stop the presses!!!

 

 

Stupid nerds make me laugh.

[joe_collector]

As ft88 points out, a lot more than the 80's 90's junk is now selling at much lower prices, going all the way back to cards in the 50's. Prices of PSA 9 and PSA 10 (or very old PSA 7/8) cards are offered as evidence of the healthy market, but these cards are akin to key BA 9.6-9.8 or SA 9.4 and HG GA. These are not in great abundance and it doesn't take a lot of people pursuing them to keep prices high.

 

[lou_fine]

I think the majority of people in this "hobby" are investors first, although many are investors/collectors. I think the potential of appreciation of comic often dominates the decision to buy. The allure for many is the ability to make money. I think a lot of people on these boards truly value their collection and like comics, but the investment angle dominates their thinking about comics and their involvement. And the collector mentality is overrepresented on these boards.

 

I would strongly disagree with the gist of your above statments.

 

I believe the above statements would be true if you was talking ablout the CGC slabbed market. Go to any local comic convention or to your LCS and you will see that over 95% of the buisness transactions are for raw books. A large portion of this business is done in terms of reader copies with no real investment in mind.

 

With respect to your last sentence above, I actually feel that there is probably an over representation of investors/speculators on these boards relative to the real marketplace.

 

 

[joe_collector]

With respect to your last sentence above, I actually feel that there is probably an over representation of investors/speculators on these boards relative to the real marketplace.

 

Ya think?

 

Someone starts a "market crash" thread on EBay and everyone is cheering, waiting for their books to get cheaper. On here, all the specs scream bloody murder.

[UnrulyAppendage]

comic: Detective 27 VF

coin: 1856 fying Eagle cent MS67

baseball card: Topps #311 Mickey Mantle rookie VF/NM

stamp ?? ( I know less than nothing about stamps )

 

Key books and the well known cards/stamps are not a valid comparison or study in regards to the health of a collectible market IMHO. They are collectibles that transcend their genre. A more valid study would be the more common stuff MOST collectors have that only those inside the hobby would know/care about.

 

A comic like Action #1 is going to attract people outside of collecting. Action 365 would not.

[delekkerste]

Well, I have a $4,000 / month mortgage, and this months commission check will be $995.........so I guess you could say that all the negative things you've heard by the press really haven't effected me that much

 

Jeez, no wonder you're hoping that the comic market is in its "infancy".

 

(But, seriously, hope you're doing OK).

[whomerjay]

I think the majority of people in this "hobby" are investors first, although many are investors/collectors. I think the potential of appreciation of comic often dominates the decision to buy. The allure for many is the ability to make money. I think a lot of people on these boards truly value their collection and like comics, but the investment angle dominates their thinking about comics and their involvement. And the collector mentality is overrepresented on these boards.

 

I would strongly disagree with the gist of your above statments.

 

I believe the above statements would be true if you was talking ablout the CGC slabbed market. Go to any local comic convention or to your LCS and you will see that over 95% of the buisness transactions are for raw books. A large portion of this business is done in terms of reader copies with no real investment in mind.

 

With respect to your last sentence above, I actually feel that there is probably an over representation of investors/speculators on these boards relative to the real marketplace.

 

 

It is true I/we can only guess as to what motivates individuals to buy comics. I have books in my closet that: 1) I've collected with no intent to sell; 2) books I've collected and will keep until I want something else (upgrade or another book) and then I'll sell them; 3) books I don't mind having in my collection but will sell them if I get anything close to a decent price; and 4) a lot of books that I don't care to collect but bought because I was pretty sure I could flip them for a profit and these $s will maintain pursuit of all 4 categories listed here.

 

To me, this means that even though I'm a collector the overwhelming majority of my purchases were bought with the idea of making a profit in mind.

 

I'm guessing that > 50% of the people on these boards are like me and flippability enters the equation for most buys.

 

I don't understand the point re: raw purchases in comic shops or conventions. Of course most of the books sold in comic shops are raw- that's 99% of what they carry. CGC books also represent a small % of books at any show. In terms of actual dollars in this hobby, though, I still think that most of the money spent is on (raw or slabbed) books people view in part or whole as an investment. Sales of reader copies by collectors, although perhaps a large % of the number of sales, constitute but a much smaller % of overall sales $. Where your point may be more valid is on the sales of new books, which tend to sustain most shops, and I would imagine that most sales are by people who want to read the book first, although I'm not sure because the speculators may be purchasing more.

 

If you were to search the comics sold on ebay (forget CL, Heritage, or other sites that are dominated by investors) and list them in descending order based on price sold, how far down the list do you think you need to go before you get the sense that the books are bought by collectors for their collection instead of by someone with the idea of selling down the road?

[Mr. Zipper]

...something 'substantive' ( not a word used in the mortgage industry )

 

How's that industry doing these days?

 

 

 

Well, I have a $4,000 / month mortgage, and this months commission check will be $995.........so I guess you could say that all the negative things you've heard by the press really haven't effected me that much

 

Sorry to hear that. That's sales though... one day King of the World... the next...

 

You're a smart guy though. I'm sure you put a little away for a rainy day. And in that field, it's definately raining.

[drbanner]

Which ties, almost directly, to eBay and the internet being wide spread.

 

True...and since you didn't respond to my reply to your input, I also mentioned there that even in 2000 on eBay the price of SA was still very volatile with wild swing in price. It wasn't until eBay had been around awhile AND CGC came into being that prices stablized at a low level and continue to fall...

 

All of this was in response to Mike's assertion that low/mid grade SA hasn't sold for full guide since 1990 and that's not actually true. He's about a decade off...

 

Jim

 

(thumbs u Two decades. At least.

 

As in, low/mid-grade SA is still selling at guide and will until 2010, or that they haven't sold at full guide since 1980?

 

I wasn't actively buying back issues worth more than $5 until 1991 when I got a real job, had money to spend, and created a spreadsheet of every Marvel superhero book published between FF 1 and December 1965 and pursued them vigorously for the next 10 years, mostly in low-mid grade. The keys have never been available below guide (I did buy my 1st Hulk #1 for $90!), but I was not having to pay full guide for any of the later, non-key issues.

 

I started selling on ebay in 1997, and don't believe I was ever able to get full guide for low-mid grade SA Marvels, unless they were Keys. I don't have my old price guides in front of me, but I do have an internet history of "asking prices" for lots of low grade books I was trying to unload on the newsgroups in 1996 (pre-ebay) as I upgraded. I was more succesful buying books, but many of these were posted below guide on RACM again and again before I finally dumped 'em on ebay. These prices were below guide then, and are even further below guide now but I bet these are still fairly accurate prices, 11 years later (low/mid-grade prices haven't appreciated in 10+years)!

 

Amazing Spiderman:

10 g+ $80

11 g $40

17 g+ $60

46 vg $12

122 vg+ $40

 

X-men:

27 vg $15

42 vg $10

45 vg+ $10

46 vg+ $10

48 vg+ $10

 

Hulk 3 g, $110 ppd

 

[ft88]

Pricing items like low to mid grade mid 60's marvels is always tough. There are plenty of comic stores that price them at full guide and then discount them if asked. I am sure plenty of folks here have bought at full guide price as well. But in general a mid grade non key mid 60's Marvel or DC put up on ebay might get 50% of guide if you're lucky.

[whetteon]

It sounds to me that we're simply talking supply and demand here. Mid and low-grade comics use to be the only things many comic collectors visiting a local convention would be so lucky to see. With the advent of the internet and eventually eBay, it became much more easier to only accept and purchase high grade books. Why? Because they were NEVER as rare as people let on. Once the regional boundaries were broken down we witnessed a whole new set of rules for collectors. I bet it's not only comics but EVERY collectible market has weathered the same storm.

 

And that's what technology does, changes existing markets over night. Comparing how it was in the 1980's and early 1990's is not the same as comparing this decades market. It's apples to oranges and it seems like many old school collectors haven't noticed this yet.

[Mr. Zipper]

It sounds to me that we're simply talking supply and demand here. Mid and low-grade comics use to be the only things many comic collectors visiting a local convention would be so lucky to see. With the advent of the internet and eventually eBay, it became much more easier to only accept and purchase high grade books. Why? Because they were NEVER as rare as people let on. Once the regional boundaries were broken down we witnessed a whole new set of rules for collectors. I bet it's not only comics but EVERY collectible market has weathered the same storm.

 

Absolutely correct. Going to cons in the 80s and early 90s, "high grade" was the best copy in the room and that may have been a VF. If it was a "tough book" -- that is, no dealers had it for several consecutive shows -- a VG/FN would have to do when a copy came along.

[drbanner]

Certainly the 'net has opened up the availability of HG copies, but from what I saw, when OS started rapidly increasing prices in the early-mid 90's (when they published their monthly price guide updates for the mainstream SA titles) they dragged up low/mid-grade prices as a fixed percentage of the NM price, when it was the NM books (not G's and F's) that were actually selling for higher prices. Starting a few years back, they quit correlating G/F prices in the guide with NM prices, and the spreads have increased dramatically, but they still need to lower the low/mid-grade prices to reflect reality on what these books sell for.

[showcase4]

Well, I have a $4,000 / month mortgage, and this months commission check will be $995.........so I guess you could say that all the negative things you've heard by the press really haven't effected me that much

 

Jeez, no wonder you're hoping that the comic market is in its "infancy".

 

(But, seriously, hope you're doing OK).

 

yeah....I'll squeek by