art market prices deline 7.5%..... will comic prices follow?

[Frank Pentangeli-migration]

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Not Just Positive Thinking: 15 Reasons the Market for Vintage Pop Culture Collectibles is So Strong

 

The headlines and lead stories in the old media are filled with negative stories to the point that the readership and audiences are now conditioned to expect it. Everyone is looking for the next downturn or crisis du jour, whether it’s related to housing, gas prices, the environment or the war on terror. When everything is a crisis, however, the word “crisis” loses its meaning.

 

Though they claim they’re only providing the news of what’s happening in a way their consumers want to see it, the large metropolitan daily newspapers, the establishment news journals, and the anachronistic network evening news programs are hemorrhaging readers and viewers. By abrogating any leadership role and clinging to the mantra of “this is what they want,” the former news giants have rendered themselves moot and done a tremendous disservice to their audiences (and their stockholders).

 

By miring themselves in depressing material with little or no counter balance, they miss out on the fact that most stories have two sides and that where there is bad news there is most often potential lurking nearby. One need not be a Pollyanna to see positive signs in the present situation in the market for vintage pop culture collectibles; one only needs to look at the facts.

 

From our own first-hand knowledge to the recent experiences of others, our collecting market is not only healthy, it is thriving! The last two sales from our Morphy Auctions unit have generated $10.4 million. Heritage Auction Galleries, Philip Weiss Auctions, ComicLink, Smith House Toys, and many other firms have also set significant records. The main feature of these successes is not related to single, high profile items, but rather to a sustained, across-the-board upward movement in the market. Our Hake’s Americana & Collectibles unit recently experienced its best-ever results, including setting its highest average price paid per item total.

 

These positive outcomes are not limited by category or niche, but instead are spread out through the many different arenas within the vintage pop culture collectibles market. From coins, political buttons and cast iron toys to character watches, movie posters, and comic books, the market is flourishing.

 

In collecting, there are other important considerations beyond the financial. Collecting has long been recognized as an escape from the everyday stresses and concerns, a way to connect with the bigger picture.

 

This larger view is embodied in Geppi’s Entertainment Museum, which provides collectors and laypeople alike a chance to see a physical manifestation of history and how general history and popular culture are reflective of each other.

 

Our stewardship of our collections, however, is important. While many of us would do what we do regardless of the appreciation or depreciation of the pieces in our care, none of us set out to deliberately lose money. It is always wise to keep appraised of market conditions and the value of one’s collection.

 

With that in mind, here are 15 Reasons the Market for Vintage Pop Culture Collectibles is strong:

 

1. The Mainstream Press isn’t as interested in us as they are in other financial arenas, and that’s a good thing.

 

There are notable exceptions, of course, but given their inability at times to put what we do in its proper context and their predisposition to go negative about things whether they understand them or not, the dearth of coverage from the mainstream press is generally a good thing. One major area that seems to prompt a lack of understanding is the difference between modern collectibles (Beanie Babies, collector plates, etc.) and vintage pop culture collectibles. It’s important to point out that there are a number of great specialty publications and outlets for many different areas within our market and they do a tremendous job informing interested parties in a positive way.

 

2. We know more realistically than ever before which artifacts are truly rare.

 

The work done by historians, researchers, catalogers, price guide authors, their advisors, and everyday collectors has established an important understanding of what items are truly rare. With an acknowledgment as to what is rare, collectors can readily understand what the forces of supply and demand are working on and how the market reacts. Among other things, this creates confidence in prices realized.

 

3. The perceived problems in the housing market actually could be helping us.

 

We clearly are hoping the housing market will soon stabilize and if past histories tell us something, it will eventually go back up. One major reason significant collections are sometimes grudgingly sold is to offset the major expense of purchasing a house (or building an addition to an existing home) and the associated costs that go with moving, such as new furniture, appliances, draperies, or what have you. In times of economic uncertainty, people often become reserved and shy away from major changes, thus paying closer attention to auctions if they collect and in turn continue to be a player.

 

4. There is more professionalism in the auction and sales processes than ever before.

 

Whether it is through independent third-party grading, specialized advertising and marketing, user-friendly online bidding platforms or responsive customer service, there is more professionalism in the vintage pop culture collectibles market than ever before. A thriving, solidified consumer base almost inherently represents a significant degree of customer satisfaction. Additionally, auction houses are targeting their traditional and email lists to supply the specialized products in which they know their consumers are interested.

 

5. Information is still king.

 

There are now more books and other resources for collectors. True, information has always been king, but we now live in an age when someone can find and distill the research of a lifetime in a matter of hours on the Internet, or at a bookstore or local library.

 

Established and accepted price guides and information sources greatly aid the stability and growth prospects for any area in collecting. From our own experience, for instance, The Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide has been produced in 38 editions. This has involved compiling, documenting, evaluating, refining, and consistently re-evaluating information for nearly four decades now. When collectors need a reference, they want to know that reference can be trusted. In many different niches of collecting, similar work has been done. There’s no substitute for experience, but clearly prospective buyers can now get a crash course in a chosen subject on their own.

 

6. There are more dollars than high grade items to go around.

 

With the development of well-thought out advertising campaigns encouraging the public to consign, many new items have come into the market in recent times. The $10.4 million generated by Morphy Auctions’ last two events shows that in microcosm. The money received for those auctions will, naturally turn over many times as it makes its way through different hands. The collectibles it purchased, though, are not nearly as likely to turn over as they were even just a few years ago. The artifacts will instead end up, at least for a time, in collections. As Steve Geppi has often pointed out, they stopped making the vintage items we collect, but they haven’t, nor will they stop printing money.

 

7. People are living longer. This changes the perspective on when to sell a collection.

 

Generally speaking, as recently as the 1960s and ‘70s, very few in their mid-60s were even thinking of starting new collections. They were contemplating when, where, and how to sell what they had already accumulated. That’s no longer the case. People are living longer and healthier and maintaining their collections as well. This has kept a significant number of high grade items off the market and should continue to be a factor going forward. In 1960, the national average for human life was 69.7 years. Now it is 77.1 years, an increase of 7.4 years. Though nothing like the jump from 47.3 years in 1900, this improvement only hints at the fact that those that live longer are frequently living well longer, too, with many reaching their 80s and 90s. This swing may have affected the age at which one considers finally selling a collection by as much as 20 years (for perspective, parting with a collection now at 85 might be akin to doing so at 65 in the 1970s).

 

8. A lot of vintage pop culture collectibles are grossly undervalued.

 

While we have had anecdotal successes and a number of pieces have broken the six-figure level, we have not reached the seven-figure level like the rare coin market has, because collectors are simply holding onto the collectibles that could generate sustained successes in this price range. Even now, we continue to hear rumors of big offers but no takers. Vintage collectibles presently valued under $200 offer opportunities with many artifacts which are hard to find in high grade, creating tremendous upside potential.

 

9. The success of the John Adams mini-series on HBO demonstrates that people are hungry for history.

 

Sure, it’s made with great production values, a superb cast and a wonderful -script, but if there was no audience for it, John Adams wouldn’t be the water cooler series it has become. In the United States, general history and pop culture history are inexorably entwined. You simply cannot fully understand one without the other. Programs such as this, and the efforts to accurately describe and evaluate artifacts, put history in context. Additionally, it reminds us in this presidential campaign season that political collectibles as a category are on the move and calls to our attention that the largest group buying pre-1940 items appears to be 40-65 year-olds, people for whom such items cannot be nostalgic because they were created before they were born.

 

10. The value of the Dollar will continue to fluctuate.

 

There are significant odds that the dollar will solidify and improve its current position against foreign currencies. Even then, though, it will still be at a nearly historic low. This does not engender faith in saving money. Awareness of this will continue to drive spending rather than savings, but investors looking for new, reliable avenues will find our market very appealing.

 

11. There have been huge profits in just about every category for collectors who bought in the 1960s.

 

Whether through good natured competition or simply the communication of information to like-minded individuals, one of the first things collectors do with our successes in selling is share news of them with friends. News of great auction results has the immediate effect of increasing collector confidence.

 

12. What is the collector who sells going to do with the money?

 

Though it seems like an advantageous time to sell, in light of the value of the dollar (#10), the change in life expectancy (#7), and the housing market (#3), one must seriously consider what one is going to do with the money earned from an auction or sale? We’ve seen several good indications that money goes right back into collecting something else if the collector is passionate enough. It’s an old truism, but collecting is a way of life and those of us who have a predisposition to it have been given the responsibility of preserving history. Additionally, there are always tax implications to consider when selling.

 

13. Crossover is now common.

 

Not all that long ago, it was substantially easier to find collectors who specialized in one field. That is no longer the case. The 1990s saw barriers broken down by information and understanding, a process that continues today. Whether it is cast iron collectors including pressed steel and tin toys, comic book collectors picking up original comic art, or even Superman collectors acquiring everything from character watches to Syroco figures, crossing over into multiple categories is now a reality.

 

14. An astonishing number of new players have entered the field.

 

A commonly asked question among longtime industry observers is, “Where is all this stuff going?” Not too many years ago the top collectors in each specialty could usually tell you who bought what from a major sale, what pieces were in what collection, and who was looking for which items. The standard beliefs of how much the market could absorb have long ago been disproven. This growth is only possible because new people have entered the competition, and some of them are investors.

 

There remains the last vestiges of a tendency among some established collectors to look askance at investors, but how could someone not want to invest in vintage pop culture collectibles? The field has experienced a consistent march toward increased liquidity for years now, but the real truth about it is that history is fun. Are we to begrudge others from discovering this simply because we got to the party first? Do we discount someone who became a fan of Spider-Man or Superman first through their films before coming to the comic books? Quite frankly, we shouldn’t be surprised. The American public has always respected success, and superhero movies, TV shows, and video games are now a huge business. They, along with such collecting-themed properties such as Toy Story, have awakened the general public to the joys of what many of us have known for years. We should welcome the prudent, enthusiastic new players with open arms. Love, baby, as Harry Matetsky would say.

 

15. The international market for vintage material is booming.

 

The depressed value of the Dollar isn’t enough by itself to explain the rise in interest in the international market. Instead, one must also consider the increased success of auction houses and private sales on the Internet, the expectation that shipping can get an item almost anyplace on the globe, and that the same research is available to anyone. Additionally, since the debut of the Brownies, many of our most familiar characters have been marketed internationally (this obviously includes Mickey Mouse and Superman, but certainly isn’t limited to them). Many of our characters have even represented international or ethnic groups (as Happy Hooligan for the Irish or the Katzenjammer Kids for Germans), and other regions respect success as much as Americans do. We should neither be surprised that characters designed to be appealing actually do appeal to large audiences nor that in this new age that the audience is bigger than we first thought.