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art market prices deline 7.5%..... will comic prices follow?

Started by dekeuk,

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dekeuk

dekeuk

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FYI, an article (below) about falling art market prices in 2008. Will comic prics follow the downward trend?

 

===================================

 

 

Art Market Insight [Apr 2008] Art investment

 

Artprice Global Index: Art prices plunge by 7.5% in the first quarter 2008

 

The art market was bound to be affected by the turbulence seen in international stock markets this first quarter. As the impact of the subprime crisis rippled out through financial systems and the international economy, seven years of soaring gains in the price of artworks were brought to an abrupt halt. For the first time since the twin towers attack of 11 September 2001, the art market has been showing signs of a fall.

 

According to the International Monetary fund, the financial crisis will cost close to USD 1 trillion. The IMF goes on to explain in its latest Global Financial Stability Report that the crisis has now spread beyond the US subprime market and, specifically, is now impacting the leading markets for office and residential property, consumer credit and corporate debt.

 

In this environment, nobody doubts that the Fine Art auction market, too, is starting to reflect the gathering gloom felt by investors the world over. In the first quarter of 2008, international art prices were 7.5% below those recorded in the last quarter of 2007. That said, because of the incredible 18% rise in 2007, this still left prices at 1 April 2008, 13% above those seen 12 months previously.

 

 

As prices have fallen, so we have also seen an 18% reduction in the number of sales at auction compared to 2007. But tight supply has kept bought-in ratios relatively steady, at close to 35% in the first three months of the year. By taking a prudent line, setting realistic reserve and estimated prices, sellers and auction houses have been able to find buyers for 65% of lots on the stands.

 

With the steep decline in the dollar, Europe felt the full force of the slump, and prices were down by 9% over the quarter. Art prices in the euro zone have slipped back to their year-ago levels, wiping out in three months a whole year of euphoric gains in 2007. The uptrend in volumes on the European art market, meanwhile, looks to have stopped dead in its tracks.

 

In the USA, the Fed has been trying to stave off recession by one drastic rate cut after another, taking its Funds rate down from 5.25% in September 2007 to 2.25% by March this year.

 

The impact of the financial crisis on the US art market may not become apparent for another month, when we see what happens at Christie’s and Sotheby’s prestigious Contemporary Art sales, scheduled for 13 and 14 May in New York. The weakening greenback and galloping inflation could actually give a short-term boost to auctions bid in dollars.

 

Christie’s is putting up a 1952 Mark Rothko on 13 May which, according to Brett Gorvy of Christie’s contemporary art department, may well set a new record for the artist. The piece will be offered alongside other major works of US expressionism, including a Sam Francis canvas from 1955, estimated at USD 4-6 million. The next day, Sotheby’s is offering a selection of pieces from the collection of Helga and Walther Lauffs, including major works by Yves Klein, Beuys and Piero Manzoni.

 

In November 2007, contemporary art had a resounding success in New York. Sotheby’s recorded its all-time record auction on 14 November turning over USD 316 million at its Contemporary Art Evening, overtaking the prior record of USD 286 million set at its May 1990 Impressionist and Modern Art auction. The previous day, its rival Christie’s had achieved a turnover of USD 325 million. Already in May, Christie’s had sold contemporary art works for USD 385 million.

 

The price falls between January and April this year are in line with the trend in the Art Market Confidence Index (AMCI) over the last 3 months. At end-January, as global stock markets corrected violently, the art market confidence index moved into the red, with most respondents expecting art prices to head downward in the next 3 months. Since the start of March, with stock market indices looking less worrying, optimism has been gaining ground among market players and the AMCI went from a monthly average of -7.6 points in January (on a scale of +/-100) to +17.1 in March. This could suggest a degree of stabilisation in store for the second quarter.

 

 

 

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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When the economy is strong, people have more money to buy comics. When the economy is weak, people seek comic books as a safe haven. When the dollar is strong, people want to own comics as they are largely a U.S.-dollar denominated asset. When the dollar is weak, foreigners have more purchasing power to buy comics. :cool:

 

There are more comic collectors now than there have ever been. People who grew up in the '80s are now just hitting their peak earnings years and will be buying more comics, especially with the economy doing so great and so many jobs being created in this country. And, with all the publicity from all the fantastic comic book movies like "Daredevil", "Elektra", "The Hulk" and "Spider-Man 3" that have been made, people naturally feel the urge to sink their life savings into comic books, especially high-grade Silver Age slabs. When times get tough, people can make do without food or gas...but try to take away their early Brave & Bolds and you've got a riot on your hands! :insane:

 

Comic books have never been better or offered more value for your money. I mean, at what other period in history have we gotten such memorable, must-read storylines like "House of M", "One More Day" or "Sins Past" - Gwen Stacy knocking boots with Norman Osborn spread out over six $2.99 issues? More of the same, please! (worship)

 

Kids and younger collectors are getting into this hobby like never before. I see them all the time at my local comic shop. That is, when I'm not tripping over George Clooney or whichever big moneyed Hollywood name that has just gotten into the hobby. Or foreigners who have come to New York to take advantage of the weak dollar to buy comics - especially foreign celebrities; why, just last week I had to fight Jean-Claude Van Damme over some Curator copies over at Metropolis Comics. Hands off my X-Men, Jean-Claude! (tsk)

 

And don't even get me started on original art! There's all these smart guys who keep coming on the Boards here - Destro, KrazyKat...and more recently Dr. Manhattan and Chameleon_Comics who keep reassuring me that original art is going to go to the stratosphere no matter what! :applause:

 

In short, comics are invulnerable to any decline in the art market or, indeed, any other market. They are pretty much recession-proof, depression-proof, child-proof, insufficiently_thoughtful_person-proof, and nuclear, biological and chemical proof as well. (thumbs u

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TupennyConan

TupennyConan

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When the economy is strong, people have more money to buy comics. When the economy is weak, people seek comic books as a safe haven. When the dollar is strong, people want to own comics as they are largely a U.S.-dollar denominated asset. When the dollar is weak, foreigners have more purchasing power to buy comics. :cool:

 

There are more comic collectors now than there have ever been. People who grew up in the '80s are now just hitting their peak earnings years and will be buying more comics, especially with the economy doing so great and so many jobs being created in this country. And, with all the publicity from all the fantastic comic book movies like "Daredevil", "Elektra", "The Hulk" and "Spider-Man 3" that have been made, people naturally feel the urge to sink their life savings into comic books, especially high-grade Silver Age slabs. When times get tough, people can make do without food or gas...but try to take away their early Brave & Bolds and you've got a riot on your hands! :insane:

 

Comic books have never been better or offered more value for your money. I mean, at what other period in history have we gotten such memorable, must-read storylines like "House of M", "One More Day" or "Sins Past" - Gwen Stacy knocking boots with Norman Osborn spread out over six $2.99 issues? More of the same, please! (worship)

 

Kids and younger collectors are getting into this hobby like never before. I see them all the time at my local comic shop. That is, when I'm not tripping over George Clooney or whichever big moneyed Hollywood name that has just gotten into the hobby. Or foreigners who have come to New York to take advantage of the weak dollar to buy comics - especially foreign celebrities; why, just last week I had to fight Jean-Claude Van Damme over some Curator copies over at Metropolis Comics. Hands off my X-Men, Jean-Claude! (tsk)

 

And don't even get me started on original art! There's all these smart guys who keep coming on the Boards here - Destro, KrazyKat...and more recently Dr. Manhattan and Chameleon_Comics who keep reassuring me that original art is going to go to the stratosphere no matter what! :applause:

 

In short, comics are invulnerable to any decline in the art market or, indeed, any other market. They are pretty much recession-proof, depression-proof, child-proof, insufficiently_thoughtful_person-proof, and nuclear, biological and chemical proof as well. (thumbs u

 

The best post in a month (that didn't feature the scan of a sweet comic)... (worship)

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shiverbones

shiverbones

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On a serious note, my own art sales have been running about 70% of this time last year on ebay, but have been far stronger in galleries then before. I think that speaks of the average person having less money for fringe purposes, while the gallery sales seem to be going to wealthier people who might not have tightened up their purse strings yet. I am bracing for that to tighten up too, we'll see.

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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I have to ask. How do you measure the drop in a global $ quantity of art? Every piece is a one off. Nothing is the same as and therefore worth as much as anything else. I mean we know what an ASM #300 CGC 9.6 is worth because several of them trade hands every week. There are enough plots on the graph to recognize a trend. Are they talking TOTAL sales? So what? This quarter did not bring as much as last...everything fluctuates. Sounds like someone is looking for a story and wrote one up to create a bit of a stir.

 

In the case of art there are too many variables and any one of these variables can cause a drop in realized prices.

 

1) Did art bring in less than estimated? Does this count as a loss or did someone not do their job properly?

2) Did the piece bring in an equal amount in foreign $$ but shows as less in US $ and there fore registers as a loss over here but not elsewhere (Americans can be so myopic)

3) Did less art trade in this early quarter than others? ie. people are either holding tight to their investments to ride out the storm, or people cling to them for comfort ( I know I hug my MMC#4 whenever I'm sad) or people are too busy doing taxes to worry about art?

4) Poor reporting.

5) a bazillion other reasons.

 

One last thing to consider...

 

Art $$ overall went down in 1990. Did comics? Nope.

I agree with Gene, comics are a great investment.

 

R.

 

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adamstrange

adamstrange

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Posted
When the economy is strong, people have more money to buy comics. When the economy is weak, people seek comic books as a safe haven. When the dollar is strong, people want to own comics as they are largely a U.S.-dollar denominated asset. When the dollar is weak, foreigners have more purchasing power to buy comics. :cool:

 

There are more comic collectors now than there have ever been. People who grew up in the '80s are now just hitting their peak earnings years and will be buying more comics, especially with the economy doing so great and so many jobs being created in this country. And, with all the publicity from all the fantastic comic book movies like "Daredevil", "Elektra", "The Hulk" and "Spider-Man 3" that have been made, people naturally feel the urge to sink their life savings into comic books, especially high-grade Silver Age slabs. When times get tough, people can make do without food or gas...but try to take away their early Brave & Bolds and you've got a riot on your hands! :insane:

 

Comic books have never been better or offered more value for your money. I mean, at what other period in history have we gotten such memorable, must-read storylines like "House of M", "One More Day" or "Sins Past" - Gwen Stacy knocking boots with Norman Osborn spread out over six $2.99 issues? More of the same, please! (worship)

 

Kids and younger collectors are getting into this hobby like never before. I see them all the time at my local comic shop. That is, when I'm not tripping over George Clooney or whichever big moneyed Hollywood name that has just gotten into the hobby. Or foreigners who have come to New York to take advantage of the weak dollar to buy comics - especially foreign celebrities; why, just last week I had to fight Jean-Claude Van Damme over some Curator copies over at Metropolis Comics. Hands off my X-Men, Jean-Claude! (tsk)

 

And don't even get me started on original art! There's all these smart guys who keep coming on the Boards here - Destro, KrazyKat...and more recently Dr. Manhattan and Chameleon_Comics who keep reassuring me that original art is going to go to the stratosphere no matter what! :applause:

 

In short, comics are invulnerable to any decline in the art market or, indeed, any other market. They are pretty much recession-proof, depression-proof, child-proof, insufficiently_thoughtful_person-proof, and nuclear, biological and chemical proof as well. (thumbs u

 

:o

 

You've convinced me. Comics are much riskier than I ever thought they would be. hm

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tth2

tth2

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FYI, an article (below) about falling art market prices in 2008. Will comic prics follow the downward trend?

Since I've already sold most of the major books I'm planning on selling for the foreseeable future, god I sure hope so! :wishluck:

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Subliminal

Subliminal

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When the economy is strong, people have more money to buy comics. When the economy is weak, people seek comic books as a safe haven. When the dollar is strong, people want to own comics as they are largely a U.S.-dollar denominated asset. When the dollar is weak, foreigners have more purchasing power to buy comics. :cool:

 

There are more comic collectors now than there have ever been. People who grew up in the '80s are now just hitting their peak earnings years and will be buying more comics, especially with the economy doing so great and so many jobs being created in this country. And, with all the publicity from all the fantastic comic book movies like "Daredevil", "Elektra", "The Hulk" and "Spider-Man 3" that have been made, people naturally feel the urge to sink their life savings into comic books, especially high-grade Silver Age slabs. When times get tough, people can make do without food or gas...but try to take away their early Brave & Bolds and you've got a riot on your hands! :insane:

 

Comic books have never been better or offered more value for your money. I mean, at what other period in history have we gotten such memorable, must-read storylines like "House of M", "One More Day" or "Sins Past" - Gwen Stacy knocking boots with Norman Osborn spread out over six $2.99 issues? More of the same, please! (worship)

 

Kids and younger collectors are getting into this hobby like never before. I see them all the time at my local comic shop. That is, when I'm not tripping over George Clooney or whichever big moneyed Hollywood name that has just gotten into the hobby. Or foreigners who have come to New York to take advantage of the weak dollar to buy comics - especially foreign celebrities; why, just last week I had to fight Jean-Claude Van Damme over some Curator copies over at Metropolis Comics. Hands off my X-Men, Jean-Claude! (tsk)

 

And don't even get me started on original art! There's all these smart guys who keep coming on the Boards here - Destro, KrazyKat...and more recently Dr. Manhattan and Chameleon_Comics who keep reassuring me that original art is going to go to the stratosphere no matter what! :applause:

 

In short, comics are invulnerable to any decline in the art market or, indeed, any other market. They are pretty much recession-proof, depression-proof, child-proof, insufficiently_thoughtful_person-proof, and nuclear, biological and chemical proof as well. (thumbs u

 

Spoken like a true art investor, with your heart, but hopefully not like an investor who says one thing but is doing another with their art investment because investing in times like these is about preserving capital :o

 

That being said, the markets are a complex beast I tend to believe much like in the recent past people where spending/borrowing on things based on the appreciation of their principal asset (their house) and now that markets are doing poorly and house values are dropping like rocks they may be facing higher fuel cost, margin calls, and other things that much cause them to liquidate art or not participate in auctions which brings down prices.

So art may still be a good investment but that won't stop some who have previously driven prices up foolishly from selling or stop driving prices up by their participation due to their more pressing debts that they might be encountering recently.

 

 

 

 

 

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