ASM #5 CGC 9.4 White on eBay

[Foolkiller]

Actually Kev, I don't think Gene has really bought much in the line of CGC books lately...

 

I've also never heard Gene say that the market is "crashing" per se... more like a correction of sorts. The current value for many of the books is overvalued, and the heights to which some books are now selling is the top of the price mountain, and they are due to correct downwards. Thus buying them for any investment purposes will result in you losing money, should people pay, say $13k for a certain book, when it is probably not possible to resell the book for the same price.

 

I think Gene himself might admit that some of the prices he paid for CGC books were very high in the beginning, and after looking at the direction the market has taken over the course of the last two years rethought whether trying to obtain a 9.6 whatever is really worth it for the added cost.

 

I noticed someone quoting an Iron Man #1 in 9.4 for $900... isn't that down from where it was a few years ago... I seem to remember that book going for substantially more back then. To me, the issue is that there are people who are putting high amounts of money into these books, and I question what will happen when these people try to resell... If you are paying the high price because you want the book and don't care if the census comes out with 10 copies of the same book in the same grade next week, that's different...

[Rip]

Iron Man 1 is a weird one. The prices over the last year have ranged from (9.4) $510 to $1142. Its a book with a wide flux.

[supapimp]

like bob just posted and i've mentioned in the past, the crash does not occur for pre 1965 books. IMHO it's everything after that year when the books started being hoarded. case in point, just look at the ASM census after 1965.

[dam60]

Gene, not trying to start anything here. But why aren't you quoting the Subby 1 in 9.6 that sold for $660 a few weeks ago, or the Marvel Spotlight 5s that are selling for around $1000, or the Iron Man 1s (there were 3 or 4)that were selling in the $900 range for 9.4s about 2 months ago. Or any Neal Adams books that are selling for silly multiples. All of those Marvels are high census books and considered common so they are the ones that SHOULD be crashing. On any given day, any given book could potentially sell for a record low or record high, overall there doesn't seem to be any significant decline even for "common" late 60s Marvel.

 

with all of Gene's knowlage,I don't know why he even buys CGC books to begin with..If stocks and gold are such a great investment,why doesn't he just quit comics and focus his "millions" there? Just buy raw books since CGC can't grade according to him,to so called " keep in touch with comics as a hobby" I don't get him sometimes,So tell us Gene..if the market is crashing and Why do you even buy CGC books in the first place? I'm not saying everyone who buy slabbed books is trying to cash in but, why buy the stuff and pay over guide if the market is crashing down?

 

Kev, you should really think about things before opening your mouth. Gene, excuse me for answering this post for you but feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

 

A couple of things:

1- Gene buys CGC books and has a killer run of Byrne X-Men, Miller DD as well as some other killer books. He also buys upwards of 10 comics monthly. Gene is a collector but also has other investments such as stocks and gold.

 

2- Where did Gene say that he thinks that CGC can't grade?? Where did that come from? I know for a fact that Gene has submitted books to CGC before.

 

3- I applaud Gene for taking a lot of on these boards for trying to advise people to essentially "not put all their eggs in one basket". I'll tell you this much - in 1999 if some financial advisor had said, "listen, you have too much money in tech stocks, you should really diversify" today he would be a genius but back then people would have told him to get lost. One thing that Gene brings up that I would like to echo is that I hope that people have more traditional and liquid investments for their retirments/ kids educations, etc.

 

DAM

 

[g-man]

Kev, you should really think about things before opening your mouth

 

[dam60]

like bob just posted and i've mentioned in the past, the crash does not occur for pre 1965 books. IMHO it's everything after that year when the books started being hoarded. case in point, just look at the ASM census after 1965.

 

Supa - let me ask you this: do you think that there is a ceiling that a comic can reach? Here's an example - most stocks trade off of a "price to earnings" ratio aka PE (I saw "most" because there are some stocks where the company has no earnings yet (think dot com) and in other industries they use other valuation metrics (think FFO and real estate)).

 

What do comics trade off of? I can't give you a real answer except for supply and demand. Eventually these books are going to price people out of the market. If a stock can show continued earnings growth, it will continue to appreciate in price. How will a cgc book appreciate into the stratosphere?

 

The pre 1965 books are a much better "investment" than the post 1965 books no question, but if I was the one who just paid $13.5 for the ASM #4(?) in 9.4 (whatever it was I don't know) I would either have to be very rich or have a very big belief in the sustained price appreciation of these books. Quite honestly, I couldn't throw together 13.5K right now to buy ANYTHING and I would consider myself one of the more serious comic buyers. At that level and as demonstrated by that one buyer, you had better hope that you have one die hard that just wants it bad enough to keep bidding till he hits the reserve.

 

DAM

 

[LordRahl]

Why is this being turned into an investment discussion? Gene pointed out a couple of examples of books that sold for record lows and alluded to a major downturn of the market based on those sales. I pointed out examples of books selling for record highs in the last couple of months that would counter that argument. I'm saying there is NO market crash presently, nor do I believe that one is imminent however I don't think anyone is suggesting that putting your investment dollars in high grade CGC books is a sound investment that is bound to pay off.

[delekkerste]

Gene, not trying to start anything here.

 

Not trying to start anything here either (arguing is a big time waster and time = money!) So, I'm going to make a bunch of quick, to the point responses to various posts. If anyone has any follow-up questions/arguments, please feel free to PM me.

 

 

But why aren't you quoting the Subby 1 in 9.6 that sold for $660 a few weeks ago, or the Marvel Spotlight 5s that are selling for around $1000, or the Iron Man 1s (there were 3 or 4)that were selling in the $900 range for 9.4s about 2 months ago. Or any Neal Adams books that are selling for silly multiples.

 

As I said, the breadth of the market is deteriorating steadily, month after month (i.e., the # of books still rising versus the overall population is shrinking). MS #5 is definitely one of those books that has been rising to new highs. My point is, for every MS 5 hitting new highs, there are many more specific books tailing off.

 

Neal Adams books are NOT invulnerable. Look at his X-Men run - those books in high grade are WAY off their former highs. Look at #56 in particular.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

If stocks and gold are such a great investment,why doesn't he just quit comics and focus his "millions" there?

 

Both the stock market and gold have crushed the comic market this year. By a huge margin. Pick up the Wall Street Journal and look at what the market has done this year...that's where real money has been made.

 

 

Just buy raw books since CGC can't grade

 

You must be confusing me somebody else...frankly, I think this QP stuff is getting taken to the opposite ridiculous extreme. My grading agrees with CGC well over 95% of the time and I think they have done a wonderful service for collectors overall.

 

 

Why do you even buy CGC books in the first place?

 

Haven't bought a slabbed book in 7 months and barely bought any the 6 months before that. Actually sold off a bunch of books earlier this year, as you can see from my eBay feedback...

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

I think Gene himself might admit that some of the prices he paid for CGC books were very high in the beginning, and after looking at the direction the market has taken over the course of the last two years rethought whether trying to obtain a 9.6 whatever is really worth it for the added cost.

 

No doubt that I overpaid for a lot of books in my collection (though I also got some bargains to balance things out, not to mention having done very well on my own account submitting books to CGC) and I'm more than willing to admit that on the record (don't see that very often on the Boards). So, I know from first-hand experience how badly a lot of books have cratered. If anyone doesn't believe the overwhelming majority of post-1975 books have crashed from their peak levels, I am more than happy to sell you parts of my collection at cost.

 

Gene

[supapimp]

Both the stock market and gold have crushed the comic market this year. By a huge margin. Pick up the Wall Street Journal and look at what the market has done this year...that's where real money has been made.

 

market hit it's 17 month high today

[LordRahl]

Pehaps we need to define our terms here. When I say there is no market slowdown I'm refering to the last 14 months or so since that is when I got back into collecting seriously. I'm not aware of what prices were like at the peak of CGC madness that I've heard about on this board. So perhaps there is a significant slowdown from the peaks of what 2-2.5 years ago. If so then the market has already had it's initial correction. The last year or so has not seen a significant decline on pre 1975 books in general. Sure there is the drop off of Miller DD, but the prices spiked due to the movie. Individual books also have peaks and valleys, Iron Man 1 is a good example because it has such a wide range of prices realized. But OVERALL I do not see a market slowdown, both in the books I've sold as well as what I see other dealers getting for their high grade books.

 

Using X-Men 56 as an example in the last year there have been 5 non-pedigree 9.4s sold. Prices went like this:310, 270, 227, 488, 333 with the last 2 sales being in the last 3 months. There is no significant decline from where they were selling 1 year ago. Again I'm not taking into account what was going on 2 and a half years ago because I don't have any price info from then.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

If I were going to make a generalized statement about the current high grade CGC market, it would be this:

 

Pre 1966 Marvels are still in demand and continue to command premiums. Post 66 Marvels Keys also continue to demand premiums, but common non-key issues have slowed considerably.

 

As the speculators and investors move out of the comic market and back into more traditional investment opportunities, I think this gap will only continue to grow. Within two years, CGC 9.4 copies of every day issues (late run Tales of Suspense for instance) will be selling at close to Guide levels, simply because the demand will not be there.

 

 

 

 

 

[delekkerste]

Using X-Men 56 as an example in the last year there have been 5 non-pedigree 9.4s sold.

 

Not to belabor the point, but you (or GPAnalysis) missed a sale at $348 in August 2002 and, pedigree or not, I'm not going to let the $860 sale from the same month slide. Not to mention a 9.4 just ended on eBay this evening for a comparatively low $255. Similarly, I know a #57 9.4 sold for $450 in May 2002, a #58 9.4 sold for $461 in November 2002 and the very common #60 topped $300 last year as well (excluding the $578.88 pedigree sale)...as far as I can tell, all of these books are well off their highs.

 

While this is certainly not a crash, I don't think it's fair to say that we haven't seen a slowdown this year. One may say, "well, it's no surprise, these are common late Silver Age books", but I will recall that many were not making this distinction a year or two ago, believing the vast majority of SA books, common or not, to be invulnerable and beyond reproach. Slowly, bit by bit, more segments of the market have been softening. I believe that this bifurcated market theory that some people subscribe to (i.e., certain highest graded Bronze keys, hard-to-find pre-65 Marvels in grade and nice GA books will remain bulletproof while the rest of the market falters) will ultimately prove to be bogus and that, in time, this softening trend will reach most books. I freely admit the possibility that I could be wrong, but, weighing all the considerations, I think this is the highest probability outcome.

 

Gene

[Kevin76]

First of all Bruce Wayne (I'm surprised you haven't changed your name to that yet) I don't care about John Byrne's X-men run in all 10.0's and a Miller DD Run all in 9.9 With white pages...common stuff that can be picked up anywhere.Along with Batman books.Also How do you know I don't think before I speak...darn right I do! I'm sick of people bashing a service that they use! I'm not going to point the finger but they know who they are.If people are coming on here to bash CGC and they way they grade how wrong it is,and that comics are bad to invest in,while they spend all kinds of cash on books themselves,if someone wants to collect that's fine,but where things go wrong is when they pay 75X guide and say the market is crashing,slowing down and all kinds of other negitive things.If anyone needs to mind thier own business it certainly would be you,why don't you think before YOU speak for once.If you don't like what I have to say...Go look at your batman comics and cry about it

[g-man]

[delekkerste]

I'm sick of people bashing a service that they use! I'm not going to point the finger but they know who they are. If people are coming on here to bash CGC and they way they grade how wrong it is...

 

First of all, you've already pointed your finger at me, unjustly. To my recollection, I have never bashed CGC's grading or service, only the speculative frenzy they have engendered. And your argument makes no sense anyway - people bash services they use all the time. AT&T Wireless comes to mind.

 

 

that comics are bad to invest in,while they spend all kinds of cash on books themselves,if someone wants to collect that's fine,but where things go wrong is when they pay 75X guide and say the market is crashing,slowing down and all kinds of other negitive things

 

As I explained in a previous post, I stepped away from the speculative mania a long time ago, so don't point your finger in my direction. Why is saying the market is slowing down, etc. "negitive" [sic], anyway? The market is going to do what it's going to do regardless of what people here say (comments made here & elsewhere may have some impact, but it won't ultimately be what drives the market). Should everybody here be a cheerleader for the market? Shouldn't there be some analysis & debate about the issues? Or are you just too financially & emotionally vested in the market to withstand the open exchange of ideas?

 

Gene

[drbanner]

[Foolkiller]

if someone wants to collect that's fine,but where things go wrong is when they pay 75X guide and say the market is crashing,slowing down and all kinds of other negitive things.If anyone needs to mind thier own business it certainly would be you,why don't you think before YOU speak for once.If you don't like what I have to say...Go look at your batman comics and cry about it

 

First of all, both Gene and JC (the two people who are the most vocal concerning the market correction) haven't proclaimed they still buy CGC books at huge multiples for investment. This statement is wholly inaccurate on your part. People bashing CGC? Who bashes CGC and still uses the service? There's not a lot of people on this board who bash CGC on any kind of regular basis that I know of... people who may say the prices paid for CGC books is too high yes, the service itself... no.

 

Your retort to DAM is like a child calling names in schoolyard. You don't have a point. You got ripped into because you're making false statements about Gene's buying habits and collecting mentality. And you again opened your mouth without thinking. "mind your own business"... aren't we supposed to respond to each other? it's an internet board, not a private conversation at some secret club.