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Is it just me, or is the market surging a bit?

Started by fantastic_four,

88 posts in this topic

fantastic_four

fantastic_four

Posted
Posted

I hate to be the bearer of good news tongue.gif --particularly if I'm looking at a biased, small set of empirical data--but are auction prices on high grade books up over the last few weeks? Despite the fact that less nice stuff is popping up this year, I've bought quite a bit simply because the Marvel Silver/Bronze books I buy in 9.0 or better have been going for slightly under market. However, for the last few weeks, everything I've gone after has been going for at-market or above-market prices.

 

Is anyone else seeing this for the books they watch? I'm not saying "buy now before the wave shoots prices up," because who knows if it'll last, but I wonder whether people are buying more now due to the recent press about the improvements in the economy, or whether it's related to movie/DVD releases, seasonal surges, or whether I'm just reading too much into the higher prices the books I watch are going for.

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JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

Posted
Posted

Nah, you aren't alone James. The obscene multiples normally paid for early certified FFs are still very high, and growing. At this rate, my collection will be complete in time for the third Fantastic Four movie sequel: FF IV: The Son of Doom Returns. tongue.gif

 

The Heritage Signature auction, with its many high grade early Spideys and other Marvels should be an interesting indicator of things to come.

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COI

COI

Posted
Posted

I have noticed the same thing.

 

As far as I can tell, it's most likely a seasonal thing. I've noticed that for the last couple of years, online sales have been pretty strong in Oct/Nov, drop off at the beginning of December(Holidays), and re-surge as people begin to recover from the holidays, and then particularly after tax season. This time of year, people are home a lot. And when they're home, they're online, hence the buying. It's the opposite in June-Aug, where people tend to be busy with other things, not to mention convention season within the hobby.

 

I don't really see it as good news, as it has kept me from buying for a couple of months now. I'd prefer to see prices fall, so I can go on a shopping spree. thumbsup2.gif

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delekkerste

delekkerste

Posted
Posted

I hate to be the bearer of good news --particularly if I'm looking at a biased, small set of empirical data--but are auction prices on high grade books up over the last few weeks?

 

On some books, yes. On other books, as I have pointed out in some recent threads, no. Seems like the stuff that doesn't come up for auction on a regular basis (certain high grade FFs, JIMs, etc.) have been seeing some speculative fervor while I've seen some ASMs and X-Men sell on the cheap (though there have been some ridiculous sales lately on certain issues like ASM 129 and XM 101).

 

I don't know why this should be surprising to anyone. confused-smiley-013.gif What do you think it looks like at or near a market top? Large segments of the market have been left behind as the breadth of the advance has narrowed, but enough books are surging to new highs to give people false hope and confidence. No offense intended, but it's clear that guys like you will never see a major correction/crash coming - everything will look peachy because some books will still be rising, then the initial stages will look just like a regular correction, then on the first rebound everything will look fine again, and then the decline will renew, etc. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

 

Actually, "crash" might never have been the right word to use, because it almost certainly will not be a short, terrifying plunge as we know "crashes" to be in liquid markets. It will likely be a long, drawn-out process that may take months or even years, with the possibility of several large counter-trend rallies, so that by the time you realize what has happened, it will be too late.

 

By the time the market eventually hits bottom, all the people looking forward to scooping up bargains will have wasted their money buying into the initial declines and sucker's rallies, the specs will have been burned and forced out long ago, and many other collectors will have left in disgust after either being priced out of the market during the bubble or burned by declining prices during the bust.

 

I know many are too emotionally and/or financially vested in comics to have anything but a knee-jerk reaction against this. To these people, as I'm sure there's nothing I or anyone else can say to sway you, let me take the high road and simply wish you the best of luck. 893crossfingers-thumb.gif

 

Gene

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nearmint

nearmint

Posted
Posted

Quote:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, over the weekend some bonehead on eBay paid triple guide for a mid-grade Golden Age book.

Oh wait...that was me.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

You fool! Haven't you ever heard of the crash?

 

Heard of it, heck, I'm eagerly anticipating it...then instead of paying 3x guide, I can pay 2.5 for the only graded copy of a mid-grade Nedor. I'm sure my wife will be thrilled about all that money I saved. tonofbricks.gif

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BachelorOfComix

BachelorOfComix

Posted
Posted
Heard of it, heck, I'm eagerly anticipating it...then instead of paying 3x guide, I can pay 2.5 for the only graded copy of a mid-grade Nedor. I'm sure my wife will be thrilled about all that money I saved. tonofbricks.gif

Perhaps but she won't be too thrilled about your collection becoming worthless overnight. The crash; know it, fear it. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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greggy

greggy

Posted
Posted
Quote:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, over the weekend some bonehead on eBay paid triple guide for a mid-grade Golden Age book.

Oh wait...that was me.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

You fool! Haven't you ever heard of the crash?

 

Heard of it, heck, I'm eagerly anticipating it...then instead of paying 3x guide, I can pay 2.5 for the only graded copy of a mid-grade Nedor. I'm sure my wife will be thrilled about all that money I saved. tonofbricks.gif

You'll be paying more than that if you want the Showcase 56! crazy.gif
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Bonds25

Bonds25

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Posted

Gene, I definitely agree that there will be (and already is) a correction on common books. There are only so many people who want a copy of Hulk #181, Spectacular Spider-Man #1, Batman #608, Avengers #24, etc. These books will be submitted in more and more quantities, and sooner or later people will realize that they're NOT rare and not worth multiples of guide.

 

The books that will retain their current value and/or rise in value are those books that are geniunely hard to find. You just don't see a lot of silver/bronze age Neal Adams books in NM condition, golden age horror books in VF and above, Archies and Donald Ducks in NM, etc. I don't see these books losing value anytime soon, because if you are a true collector and want one of these books, you're going to have to pay a high price since another probably won't show up for a while.

 

Agree/disagree?

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greggy

greggy

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Posted
You'll be paying more than that if you want the Showcase 56!

 

I'm really curious how CGC will grade that book. How do you think the back cover date stamp will affect the grade?

Stamp will have no affect on the CGC grade! flamed.gif
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greggy

greggy

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Posted
Stamp will have no affect on the CGC grade! flamed.gif

Correct but you know the anal collectors will avoid it like the plague......... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

It only takes 1. You see the QP on my ASM 101? cool.gif
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greggy

greggy

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It only takes 1. You see the QP on my ASM 101? cool.gif

Yeah one slack-jawed sucker is all it takes. Is your ASM still on comiclink? Talk about getting hosed! foreheadslap.gif

893applaud-thumb.gif
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