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Is it just me, or is the market surging a bit?

Started by fantastic_four,

88 posts in this topic

Illiterati-migration

Illiterati-migration

Posted
Posted
No...you will kick my arse again! frown.gif

WTF are u talking about you wuss? I'm bored, let's play. 893crossfingers-thumb.gif

 

I WANT TO PLAY!!!! Oh yeah... BOC is one of the KhaosHaterz! Tough enough to talk trash, never tough enough to take their lumps like men! devil.gif

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COI

COI

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By the time the market eventually hits bottom, all the people looking forward to scooping up bargains will have wasted their money buying into the initial declines and sucker's rallies, the specs will have been burned and forced out long ago, and many other collectors will have left in disgust after either being priced out of the market during the bubble or burned by declining prices during the bust.

 

Gene, I don't disagree with your points, but with the above wording it seems that you deem anyone who buys anything at any time to be a "sucker". If you buy deflated books now, you're a sucker because they'll only sink further. If you wait for prices to start falling on books that are currently "hot", you're a sucker because it'll simply be an "initial" decline with more on the way. If you bought any books in the last 2 years, you're a sucker because the bubble will burst. And anyone paying multiples on tough books like FF's and JIM's are speculators, and will be gone shortly.

 

I understand you are very well educated in your field, which happens to be one that you can carry over into discussions and analysis of the comic market. I've also heard you state many times that you're not being pessimistic, but realistic. I consider myself a realist, and after studying the situation, and opening up my mind, my views have changed. I do not believe that most of the current prices are going to be sustainable in the long haul. But at the same time, I do believe there are smart ways to buy/collect even very high grade books. When I read your posts, I get the impression that you feel there is no redeeming value in buying high grade books as I never see you suggest buying strategies or any other solutions.

 

I don't know why this should be surprising to anyone. What do you think it looks like at or near a market top? Large segments of the market have been left behind as the breadth of the advance has narrowed, but enough books are surging to new highs to give people false hope and confidence. No offense intended, but it's clear that guys like you will never see a major correction/crash coming - everything will look peachy because some books will still be rising, then the initial stages will look just like a regular correction, then on the first rebound everything will look fine again, and then the decline will renew, etc. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

 

Again, let me emphasize that despite what you may or may not think, I no longer have the bullish attitude towards the comic market that I once did, but I feel the need to point this out. You say guys like FF will never be able to see the crash, but would guys like yourself ever be able to see a rise in the markets without automatically placing the blame on specs, movie hype, or a cyclical bubble? You ask what do these guys think the top of the market looks like, but let me ask you, what do you think the bottom looks like? Again, I'm not optimistic about the future of the high grade market in regards to price apreciation, but as you've stated many times there is the *possibility* that you may be wrong in your assesments of the future. So, for the sake of argument, if you were wrong, would you be able to see it? No offense, but I don't think you would. The reason being that you can explain anything using a large enough time frame, and if the market did continue apreciating, it would be nothing more than the bubble continuing to swell. And you would be right since in the big scheme of things your predictions will eventually come to pass, which is why you never have to use a timeframe to make your point. On a large enough time frame, NOTHING is secure and NOTHING can be sustained, not just in the hobby, but with anything in general. That's the main reason I think this topic has to be put to rest, because it never really goes anywhere. If the market "crashes" tomorrow, you were right. If every single CGC auction on Ebay brings record prices for the next month, it's those damn specs. No matter what, the future is always coming, the crash always inevitable, and you cannot be proven wrong. It goes both ways; some people will never see the crash, and some people will never see a healthy market.

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Mister_Mean-migration

Mister_Mean-migration

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893blahblah.gif All this coming from a guy who SEVERELY overpaid for 22 pgs of mediocre art from a non key book featuring 8th tier characters from an artist whom

almost no one collects. Was the cover even included in the deal? If not, then you got hosed 10x worse than I thought. Give us all a break already. sign-rantpost.gif

 

 

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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The books that will retain their current value and/or rise in value are those books that are geniunely hard to find....

 

Agree/disagree?

 

I think in the short-term this is correct, and as the common books that you mention have been falling, certain HTF books have indeed been seeing a lot more attention and seeing their prices surge. In the long-term, however, I believe that the secular forces affecting the industry (declining collector base, etc.) will affect all segments of the market, including those HTF books. Also, I think that there is only so much perceived value in those HTF books and if other nice books are selling on the cheap, it will be difficult for people to justify an ever-widening gap in price/value.

 

One point that I don't think has ever been mentioned is one argument that has been applied to the housing market: appreciation of the comic market has outstripped personal income growth by a huge margin over the past however many years you want to go back. If this continues, fewer and fewer people will be able to buy expensive books, no matter how nice or HTF they are. I just don't see Hulk #181 CGC 9.4s soaring to $20K in 19 years, as some have contended (a nearly 10-fold rise) because incomes will likely have, at best, risen about 1.5x during that timeframe (and I'm thinking a lot less as the deflationary wage effects of globalization become more keenly felt in the future).

 

Gene

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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Hey Andrew,

 

Gene, I don't disagree with your points, but with the above wording it seems that you deem anyone who buys anything at any time to be a "sucker".

 

When I read your posts, I get the impression that you feel there is no redeeming value in buying high grade books as I never see you suggest buying strategies or any other solutions.

 

Sorry if I came off that way, as that was not my intention. Let me put it this way: if anyone spends well within their means for something they really want, then it really doesn't matter what the overall market is doing. If you have the ability/distribution network to buy and then resell for a short-term profit, then it also doesn't really matter what the overall market is doing. I was only addressing those collectors/investors/speculators buying at prevailing market prices and expecting to coast to Easy Street by holding on for the long-term (I think this is a very remote possibility considering demographic, cultural and macroeconomic trends).

 

 

Again, let me emphasize that despite what you may or may not think, I no longer have the bullish attitude towards the comic market that I once did, but I feel the need to point this out.

 

Andrew, I think your recent posts have been among the best ever seen on this Board! I actually think that you have done a better job than I have of pointing out some of the folly going on in the market lately. In fact, one of the reasons I have posted less on market-related topics is that I feel that you have clearly communicated much of what I want to say.

 

 

You ask what do these guys think the top of the market looks like, but let me ask you, what do you think the bottom looks like? So, for the sake of argument, if you were wrong, would you be able to see it? No offense, but I don't think you would.

 

I learned from living and working on the frontlines of the 1990s tech mania that bubbles will reach ridiculous extremes and that the timing of a decline cannot be pinpointed. What may look like wishy-washiness on my part, not willing to pinpoint the timing of a major decline, is a tacit admission of that fact. I do know, however, that when MP #15s sell for $2K, we are far closer to a top than a bottom.

 

What's important is to recognize that this is not a cyclical upturn in the comic market, but rather a blowoff bubble top to a multi-decade bull market. All the signs are there: worsening fundamentals in terms of demographic and economic factors, an unsustainable, parabolic rise in prices, declining breadth of the advance, scammers coming out of everywhere to take advantage of high prices (notice the parallels with the corporate/Wall Street research/mutual fund scandals), an industry starting up to service the bull market (GPAnalysis, Overstreet monthly, etc. - notice the parallels with mags like The Industry Standard and Red Herring coming and going with the tech bubble), etc.

 

Gene

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delekkerste

delekkerste

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All this coming from a guy who SEVERELY overpaid for 22 pgs of mediocre art from a non key book featuring 8th tier characters from an artist whom

almost no one collects. Was the cover even included in the deal? If not, then you got hosed 10x worse than I thought. Give us all a break already

 

First you take cheap shots at my photo and now you take cheap shots at my collection. Don't you have anything better to do than troll me? And which one of the usual Rogues Gallery are you a shill account for? 893naughty-thumb.gif

 

Gene

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g-man

g-man

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I have seen a few nice sales recently on ebay (i.e. asm #100 in 9.6, asm #129 in 9.6 and the current one, conan #1, early xmen books...). Also a few private sales that i have made have generated some above normal prices. Granted these are only a few examples but IMO pre 68 books in decent grades are doing fine. The bronze market except for the super keys has cooled IMO.

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blazingbob

blazingbob

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I have not seen a "surge" in prices. If you knew how "common" certain issues pre CGC you now see the "common" reflecting that in post CGC pricing. Eventually the same books the invoked a yawn when going through the boxes is getting the same "yawn" in a CGC holder. Oh yeah, another AS #64 in NM, yup here comes #67. #1's are still very strong, I am actively seeking pre 65 #1 issues. Now would be one of the best times to sell if you are thinking about selling.

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awe4one

awe4one

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Gene, I don't disagree with your points, but with the above wording it seems that you deem anyone who buys anything at any time to be a "sucker". If you buy deflated books now, you're a sucker because they'll only sink further. If you wait for prices to start falling on books that are currently "hot", you're a sucker because it'll simply be an "initial" decline with more on the way. If you bought any books in the last 2 years, you're a sucker because the bubble will burst. And anyone paying multiples on tough books like FF's and JIM's are speculators, and will be gone shortly...........

 

Andrew.....this is probably one of the most sensible posts concerning the current market and this Forum's back and forth posts I've seen in quite some time. Especially from someone who I consider "on the other side of the argument" from me. 893applaud-thumb.gif

 

 

Jim

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deathlok

deathlok

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I have read a lot of posts on here about the crash. Many speak of it in a negative way, which I'm sure it might be to many people who purchase comics purely from a investment angle. Although most of us here on the boards are collectors, which differs from the stock market. We would enjoy the prices to fall to a more attainable level. Most of the prices for slabbed books are ridiculously high, if you don't believe me ask Greggy about his ASM 101. Although right now people are willing to pay for them, and congratulation to people like Greggy who can cash in.

 

The point I was trying to make is that a crash would be good for collectors, not sure if it would be bad for the hobby in general. Publishers would continue to churn out new books, which shouldn't affect the back issue market. While I think the stock market and the comic market can be similar, I don't think they are equal in terms of the consumer.

 

IMO

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OldGuy

OldGuy

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The point I was trying to make is that a crash would be good for collectors, not sure if it would be bad for the hobby in general.

 

A "correction" would be good for collectors, a "crash" will be good for no one.

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dam60

dam60

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Most of the prices for slabbed books are ridiculously high, if you don't believe me ask Greggy about his ASM 101. Although right now people are willing to pay for them, and congratulation to people like Greggy who can cash in.

 

This is not the first, nor will it be the last, time that Greggy has been recognized for his unprecedented and extremely lucrative ability to mint money thanks to a keen eye and to CGC. In honor of Greggy, I would like to formally announce that from this day forward, GREGGY is the Forum Legend for achieving unprecedented greatness in the CGC market!!!

 

(Arch - please note this event and bestow upon him the custom title of "Forum Legend")

 

Here here to Greggy!!!

 

Now go and find me some sweet, sweet DC Batmans! grin.gif

 

DAM

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deathlok

deathlok

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The point I was trying to make is that a crash would be good for collectors, not sure if it would be bad for the hobby in general.

 

A "correction" would be good for collectors, a "crash" will be good for no one.

 

I take a crash to mean that value of books would drop immensely low. Is that correct. I buy back issue books because of their value to me. For example I will never buy a Valiant book. I don't care for the characters, the art, or the stories. Just my personal view. Regardless if they have value or not. If my books were to drop in value, that wouldn't deter me from the hobby.

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