Is it just me, or is the market surging a bit?

[BronzeBruce13]

I'm amazed at how this is by far the most thoughtful and civilized "market/investment thread" that has ever been on the Boards (so far, knock wood). Can you feel the love? Gene

 

I'm not surprised Gene... you most often present your views in an intelligent, well-thought out manner supported with technical explanations, market history and data that explain how you arrived there. Most importantly, your delivery is rarely condescending, demeaning, insulting or judgmental (unless you are under attack)... at least from my observations. You'll explore a counter-view, won't evade any questions, and even apologized when Andrew mistook the intent of one of your statements.

 

I don't always agree with, and admittedly don't always understand all your points (although I agree with more than I used to) but as long as you're not "overdoing the frequency" of the message, I'm always interested in hearing your comments. I also think you need a little recognition for the restraint you have shown when the topic has been explored "too often" in a short span of time. Recently, when jduran made a market related post shortly after the topic was "well covered" you were the first one there to suggest he search for past threads instead of taking the opp. to repeat the message.

 

At least this time, something happened to talk about... an "upward trend". Can't complain about that... and seems like no one is

 

Just felt you deserve a little credit... Keep it up Gene... just not too often.

 

 

[greggy]

What if, one single collector back in 1970 had bought 100s of several key issues published between 1969 and 73 and carefully stored them and was slowly sending them to cgc and selling them on ebay. What if these books were - Spidey 100,101, 102; Marvel Feature 1; Spotlight 5: Defenders 1? What if these books graded no lower than 9.2s but had many copies in the 9.6/9.8 range? What if this collector had 20 copies of spotlight 5 at cgc right now with most grading at 9.4/9.6 and a couple 9.8?

 

I would say this scenario is more than likely, and not simply a "what if". If I were a gambling man, I would put my money on the fact that not only is this possible, but that it's a reality.

 

But you can't tell certain board members that, who are convinced that the supplies of Hulk 181, ASM #129 and MS #5 are drying up, and that demand will continue to rise until Hulk 181's are as hard to come by as early FF's in 9.2+.

Oh...the guy that I bought my ASM 101, Marvel Feature 1, Marvel Spotlight 5, and Defenders 1 back in the day is having his friends grade and sell his books on eBay. Remember the first Defenders 1 CGC 9.8 on eBay...that was most likely from his collection as the eBay seller bookfool is a good friend of the guy and used to set up at shows right next to each other. Notice that there have been a bunch of ASM 100, 101, Marvel Feature 1, and Defenders 1 showing up? Steve Sibra recently moved back to the Seattle area and has been offering some books from that collection. Most likely that ASM 100 CGC 9.6 that did surprisingly well recently came from the collection. However, he didn't really seem to have much copies of MS5 back in the day and had no MTU 1s!

[sfilosa]

1) It is very unlikely that there will be a CRASH per se, on CGC / HIgh-Grade Golden-Age and Silver-Age books. In general, there will never be enough supply to DUMP on the market at any one time. To have a true Crash, there needs to be an oversupply and dimishing demand. Could, a Crash occur on certain books that have hundreds to thousands of high-grade CGC books? YES. Most of those books would fall into the Bronze-Age and newer books.

 

I disagree. Supply dosen't just relate to the number of existing books, but also how many are on the market at any given time. When Italian treasure listed his ASM run, that was an over-supply of high grade ASM's on the market, even though there was only one of each issue. It was simply too much quality being offered at once, and the market was not able to fully absorb it. That's one of the reasons he lost his shirt.

 

 

To clarify, a CRASH does not occur when ONE PERSON overpays for books and then is FORCED to liquidate at a loss. A CRASH would be when hundreds of people pay for books and then they SELL at a latter time for a substantial loss.

 

If the purchase of all the ASM by Italian Treasures had cause many people to overpay for ASM, then when he sold at a loss, MANY other people SOLD at a LOSS, then you could say there was a CRASH on ASM only. That did not happen.

 

 

Also, regarding hoards of NM comics being available, realize this:

 

The theory would imply that someone bought all these comics when they were issued and then held on to them for 25-30 years just waiting for a company like CGC to come into exsistence. I don't believe that happen.

 

Yes, some dealers / collectors might have had multiple copies of certain books stored away, but they more than likely have been selling these over time for the past 15-20 years. Could they still have more copies left? Off course. But if you assume they had bought 200 copies of ASM #100, I would guess that most of these copies were sold long before CGC.

 

Warehouse finds (like MH II) don't fit into this scenario because these comic books were NEVER hoarded. They just were never Distributed.

 

And while I am a firm believer that there are many more high-grade Gold and Silver Age comics that have not CGC, I don't believe there will be a FLOOD at anyone causing a massive OVERSUPPLY.

 

I am not saying comic values can not go down. I am saying that I don't see a CRASH on Gold and Silver Age books.

[COI]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

[paperheart]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

 

- i was three pages in before i realized this thread was 6 years old.

[greggy]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

 

- i was three pages in before i realized this thread was 6 years old.

Mike = Out of touch

[paperheart]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

 

- i was three pages in before i realized this thread was 6 years old.

Mike = Out of touch

 

people gasping at obscene multiples, gene warning of a bubble- thread seemed as fresh as a daisy

[tth2]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

 

- i was three pages in before i realized this thread was 6 years old.

Mike = Out of touch

 

people gasping at obscene multiples, gene warning of a bubble- thread seemed as fresh as a daisy

(thumbs u

[JONPAULJONES-migration]

Nostalgia bump. Interesting read considering what we now know.

 

- i was three pages in before i realized this thread was 6 years old.

Mike = Out of touch

 

people gasping at obscene multiples, gene warning of a bubble- thread seemed as fresh as a daisy

(thumbs u

 

[otherworldsj33]

OK, I may be in a little over my head here. I know and agree about supply and demand in our hobby. BUT, looking at other collectible markets, then what is causing the fine art market to fall at such at alarming rate these last 4-5 months? They are one of a kind pieces. Obviuously more demand then supply.Less millionaires? Less willing to part with money?

If it can happen with fine art, where only one piece exists, then why not with comics or for that matter, comic art?

[tth2]

Some of the biggest falls in the fine art market have been among contemporary artists. They are the equivalent of "modern" comics in that they can go for insane amounts of money in the short term as they're pumped up by dealers to collectors hoping to pick up the next big thing for relatively cheap. The only way to tell if they will stand the test of time is, well, time. I believe many of the big casualties in the art market thus far have been works from this genre.

 

In contrast, many of the works of true and tested quality sold very well in the Yves St. Laurent auction.

[delekkerste]

OK, I may be in a little over my head here. I know and agree about supply and demand in our hobby. BUT, looking at other collectible markets, then what is causing the fine art market to fall at such at alarming rate these last 4-5 months? They are one of a kind pieces. Obviuously more demand then supply.Less millionaires? Less willing to part with money?

 

If it can happen with fine art, where only one piece exists, then why not with comics or for that matter, comic art?

 

You hit the nail on the head. The "one of a kind" argument has never held water - plenty of "one of a kind" items, including fine art, have historically experienced booms and busts...just like any other asset.

 

And, yes, absolutely - there are less millionaires. According to a survey released just last week, there are now fewer millionaires in the U.S. than there have been at any time since 2003. The number of billionaires has also plummeted since last year according to the latest issue of Forbes. Not surprising when you consider that the stock market is at 1997 levels and the real estate market is at 2003 levels. Who wants to pay expected "future" prices for comic art like they were doing last summer at the height of the mania?

 

As far as Tim's point about the YSL auction, that was definitely the exception in this market, though it shows that items of quality with strong provenance can still bring strong prices (much like the $60 million Malevich painting that recently sold at Sotheby's). Though, of course, who knows what prices these items would have brought 9 months ago - probably even more. Anyway, contemporary art has indeed been harder hit, as that bubble had inflated more and had harder to fall. However, almost everything is down across the board, with declines commensurate with how big the bubble was. And, most people in the art world think there is substantial more downside to come according to recent published surveys.

[Foolkiller]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

[jimjum12]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

MAN....I forgot that book was in there....what a steal, Brian. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[LordRahl]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book. I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

[tth2]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

[LordRahl]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

 

[delekkerste]

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book. I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

 

A well-known dealer just made a similar argument in a thread in the OA Forum yesterday. If something has declined from what he considered to be an aberrant, unsustainable level that made his bullishness look foolish, it was OK to ignore it. But, when such a sale was needed to prove his bullish thesis, the FMV of a piece that sold for such a level, even if it was years ago, was merely the underbid on that high sale (say, $1,250 in this case). :doh:

 

I'm sure a lot of people who top-ticked various assets, in various markets, at various unsustainable prices that only prevailed for a very short time, wish that they could call a "do-over". :yeahok: It doesn't make the losses any less real, though. Even in comics, I'm sure I, personally, top-ticked a number of 9.6 Bronze prices back in the early 2000s in the days when I was an active player in the market and before supply had caught up with (and, in some cases, later exceeded) demand. For example, is anyone paying $2K+ for ASM #122 9.6 anymore? Cause that's what I paid in 2000 or 2001. Probably not the best "investment" I could have made, but, then again, I bought it because I wanted the book and not for any other reason.

[Foolkiller]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

 

More copies? There's a total of 3 9.0s -- not exactly a mountain of copies.

 

My point is that it the book has steadily dropped in price... and not because of an injection of copies... even if you throw the high out... it's STILL dropped by a third over what it sold for two years ago. There are several books which do trend down -- if it is not at the very top, like the 9.4 copy. I think people are judging the health of the market just from the very, very top price sales, and not looking at things generally.

[LordRahl]

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book. I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

 

A well-known dealer just made a similar argument in a thread in the OA Forum yesterday. If something has declined from what he considered to be an aberrant, unsustainable level that made his bullishness look foolish, it was OK to ignore it. But, when such a sale was needed to prove his bullish thesis, the FMV of a piece that sold for such a level, even if it was years ago, was merely the underbid on that high sale (say, $1,250 in this case). :doh:

 

I'm sure a lot of people who top-ticked various assets, in various markets, at various unsustainable prices that only prevailed for a very short time, wish that they could call a "do-over". :yeahok: It doesn't make the losses any less real, though. Even in comics, I'm sure I, personally, top-ticked a number of 9.6 Bronze prices back in the early 2000s in the days when I was an active player in the market and before supply had caught up with (and, in some cases, later exceeded) demand. For example, is anyone paying $2K+ for ASM #122 9.6 anymore? Cause that's what I paid in 2000 or 2001. Probably not the best "investment" I could have made, but, then again, I bought it because I wanted the book and not for any other reason.

 

I have no idea what his argument was. But if you are not factoring in that there are abberant one-off sales in high grade, it doesn't matter how you argue it, you do not understand the high grade market. Does anyone really think that FMV for a FF 72 in 9.6 is $7K? When there are several sales in a particular dollar range and ONE sale that is 10X that range, that is an abberation. Two people with deep pockets really wanted that book at that time. Just because the subsequent sale goes back to the normal range that the book sells for does not mean that the bottom has just fallen out.