Is it just me, or is the market surging a bit?

[DKeeneman]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

 

More copies? There's a total of 3 9.0s -- not exactly a mountain of copies.

 

My point is that it the book has steadily dropped in price... and not because of an injection of copies... even if you throw the high out... it's STILL dropped by a third over what it sold for two years ago. There are several books which do trend down -- if it is not at the very top, like the 9.4 copy. I think people are judging the health of the market just from the very, very top price sales, and not looking at things generally.

 

I agree with this. Even taking out the one high price, there is still a significant decline in price. Maybe too few sales to get an accurate barometer of the market, but it is still notable.

 

Looking at the auctions, and going on GPAnalysis recently to check prices of books I am interested in buying, I seem to be seeing a whole lot more down arrows lately than I was a year ago.

 

I'm not buying Action 1, but with notable exceptions, things seem to be cooling off a little, and declining in some cases, in my bracket of books.

 

[cujobyte]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

 

More copies? There's a total of 3 9.0s -- not exactly a mountain of copies.

 

My point is that it the book has steadily dropped in price... and not because of an injection of copies... even if you throw the high out... it's STILL dropped by a third over what it sold for two years ago. There are several books which do trend down -- if it is not at the very top, like the 9.4 copy. I think people are judging the health of the market just from the very, very top price sales, and not looking at things generally.

 

I completely agree with you Brian. I think there is something wrong with the market when a Spidey 9.8 goes for $200, but the 9.6 only goes for $28. I dunno, I like 9.6's! Guess I'm the only one?

[the blob]

Some of the biggest falls in the fine art market have been among contemporary artists. They are the equivalent of "modern" comics in that they can go for insane amounts of money in the short term as they're pumped up by dealers to collectors hoping to pick up the next big thing for relatively cheap. The only way to tell if they will stand the test of time is, well, time. I believe many of the big casualties in the art market thus far have been works from this genre.

******************

 

If nothing else a living artist may live to 90 and pump out tens of thousands of new works, further saturating the market. They may also do something incredibly stupid, devaluing their work.

 

DeKooning, etc. etc. etc. are not creating any more paintings!

[the blob]

For example, is anyone paying $2K+ for ASM #122 9.6 anymore? Cause that's what I paid in 2000 or 2001. Probably not the best "investment" I could have made, but, then again, I bought it because I wanted the book and not for any other reason.

*************

you of all people should have been fully aware that at that point in CGC's life there were many more nice copies of that book to be enslabulated at that point, no?

[the blob]

the senario of someone with many many copies off the rack of some late silver/early bronze keys isn't erribly far fetched given that's what many of the early collectors/hoarders were doing in the 70's.

 

thing is, those hoarders would have had to have held on to their hoards through the early 90s when the temptation to sell those books that had gotten hot would have been driving them nuts. seriously, Hulk 181 was a $400-500+ book. that is ginormous money in 1993 dollars, seriously, you could have bought 5 copies of Harbinger #1 or Venom Black! Spidey 129 was $300+. Many of the others were $100-$150 books. Those heights alone would have wrung out the bulk of the remaining hoards. And then ebay...easy selling from your home, etc. would have wrung out more hoards. I'm not saying there might be a couple left, but there's been a lot of pressure over the last 20 years to sell some of these books.

[tth2]

Well... just an aside...

 

I won a GL 8 CGC 9.0 tonight on Heritage...

 

in 2006 a 9.0 sold for around $1300

 

in 2007 a 9.0 sold for around $600

 

in 2009 a 9.0 sold tonight for $400

 

GL 8 is a tough book, a grey tone, there's 3 in 9.0, 2 in 9.2 and 1 in 9.4 -- not exactly plentiful.

 

Not everything is hot. I think when we look at the comic market, we have to look at the whole picture. Sure, there are some shocking uptick sales, but I think there's also a bunch of sales for books not selling that well or aggressively.

 

Not sure what your point is Brian Take the one $1300 abberant sale out and you paid FMV, just under $500. I was the underbidder and didn't feel the book was worth any more than in the range of $450-550. Which the last three sales would support. Other than the fact that it has a cool cover there just isn't much else important about that book.

Yup, the $1300 was definitely the exception, and the price for 9.0s has gone down as more copies have entered the Census and marketplace.

 

I sold the 9.4 a couple of years ago and I would imagine if it were flipped today it would probably fetch about what I sold it for.

I sold it last year for quite a bit more than what I paid you for it.

 

More copies? There's a total of 3 9.0s -- not exactly a mountain of copies.

Relative to the price that was paid, it IS a mountain of copies, particularly when you also factor in the 9.2 copies.

 

If I recall, $1300 back in 2006 would have represented about 4X Guide for the book, which is a huge multiple for a 9.0 book, even for an early SA DC when they were underpriced in the Guide. There's no doubt that this price was driven up in part by perceived scarcity in high grade, as I believe there was only a 9.4 copy above it at the time. A 9.0 copy is now only the 4th best copy at best, and tied with 2 others to boot. So to see the scarcity premium reduced over time as the book sinks toward Guide is not surprising at all.

 

My point is that it the book has steadily dropped in price... and not because of an injection of copies... even if you throw the high out... it's STILL dropped by a third over what it sold for two years ago. There are several books which do trend down -- if it is not at the very top, like the 9.4 copy. I think people are judging the health of the market just from the very, very top price sales, and not looking at things generally.

This is very true.

[tth2]

Some of the biggest falls in the fine art market have been among contemporary artists. They are the equivalent of "modern" comics in that they can go for insane amounts of money in the short term as they're pumped up by dealers to collectors hoping to pick up the next big thing for relatively cheap. The only way to tell if they will stand the test of time is, well, time. I believe many of the big casualties in the art market thus far have been works from this genre.

******************

 

If nothing else a living artist may live to 90 and pump out tens of thousands of new works, further saturating the market. They may also do something incredibly stupid, devaluing their work.

 

DeKooning, etc. etc. etc. are not creating any more paintings!

Very good point.

[whetteon]

the senario of someone with many many copies off the rack of some late silver/early bronze keys isn't erribly far fetched given that's what many of the early collectors/hoarders were doing in the 70's.

 

thing is, those hoarders would have had to have held on to their hoards through the early 90s when the temptation to sell those books that had gotten hot would have been driving them nuts. seriously, Hulk 181 was a $400-500+ book. that is ginormous money in 1993 dollars, seriously, you could have bought 5 copies of Harbinger #1 or Venom Black! Spidey 129 was $300+. Many of the others were $100-$150 books. Those heights alone would have wrung out the bulk of the remaining hoards. And then ebay...easy selling from your home, etc. would have wrung out more hoards. I'm not saying there might be a couple left, but there's been a lot of pressure over the last 20 years to sell some of these books.

 

Pressure from whom? There are tons of people out there who don't watch this market daily like we do.

 

Early 2000 I witnessed the death of an elderly man who's wife sold off about 250K worth of Golden Age keys. I seriously doubt they felt 'pressure' in the 1990's or 1980's to 'liquidate'. The elder man just like to collect and was considered a pack rat. Plenty of more from where he came.