The Next Wave?

[PovertyRow]

OK. Now that CGC has been around for some time and things are established enough to see prices on some high grade slabbed going down, primarily due to the more frequent refreshing of the census and the realization that book xyz in 9.2 OW has a high census count, what do you all see as the next wave? Are we looking at non-key non-special high (9.4+) books from major runs like FF, ASM, X-Men that have not been offerred as much as, say, a Hulk 181? ? Are we looking at the more obscure things like Atlas Seaboard and those oddball (and very precious) DCs like Secret Six and Brother Power? Are we looking at the next wave of low census number books like the 1974 Human Torch #1? (total of 7 submitted with 4 9.4's being the highest grade recorded.)

 

What do you think?

 

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

The "Next Wave" will start once a competitor to CGC emerges and we go through the same process all over again, except this time it'll be CGC books re-subbed for certification.

 

It's also the point where people holding high-CGC-grade comics with monster problems (mis-cuts, off-center covers, date stamps, printing flaws, etc.) will see their comics moved to the bargain bin.

[BronzeBruce13]

Hey Vince,

 

How likely do you think a CGC competitor emerging is?

Many respected comic personalities were involved with the forming of CGC (or contributed in some way with grading input, etc.) and sellers/collectors seem to be used to, and content with the standard set and service provided.

 

Since you have obvious insight about the history of the Card Grading services...how, and how long after the first company was formed, did a competitor emerge? Did the originator hold top position or did any newcomers de-throne them? What about the Coin Grading services?

[PovertyRow]

The "Next Wave" will start once a competitor to CGC emerges and we go through the same process all over again, except this time it'll be CGC books re-subbed for certification.

 

I don't know, CI. The ramifications implicit in your statement are pretty dealer oriented. (and PLEASE EVERYONE - I do not hate dealres - not gonna go through that again - like dealers - you find good dealers and get to know them? You have a friend for life! OK? Huh? Thank you.)

 

CI, your comments are also kind of short-sighted for the question (see below).

 

What I mean is, why would someone who is a buyer, and spent $1500 for a CGC 9.6 White Page SuperDuperHero #17 (first full appearance of Weaponator) have it resubmitted to an unknown entity? And I say unknown entity intentionally because, while I agree we need a competitor or two to CGC, it is gonna take a long while for their competitors to become established. And by THAT time we will have already gone through a minumimum of one wave and quite probably more waves. (this is the short-sighted part).

 

I doubt a buyer of a 1K and up book is gonna risk resubmission in your scenario until two things have been established: 1) That the new competition is accepted as much as CGC has been and, 2) that it has been proven that along with the acceptance there is a history of upgrading cgc books.

 

I CAN see a small window where a higher upgrade to CGC exists and may create a flurry in the marketplace - but a flurry is not a Storm (Howdy X-Men fans). But it will not last long as I also see it as having a lot of speculative sellers and also a lot of informed buyers who realize that a company that will upgrade as much as you suggest is ultimately gonna hit the tubes.

 

And with that, I bid you a finite! (err - fine night)

[comicinvestor-migration]

Call it short-sighted if you will, but I don't see any "next wave" with existing CGC comics. We've already been through the standard pattern for graded collectibles and are now in the midst of a long, downward trend where prices continue to fall on all by the rarest, most key and highest grade comics (ie. Hulk 181 9.6 and above, pre-1965 NM Marvels/DC, etc.).

 

Don't believe me? Check back in a few months to see what non-key 9.4's are selling for.

[PovertyRow]

We've already been through the standard pattern for graded collectibles

 

Nope. We haven't by a long shot. The "standard pattern" includes DC - which has not done well YET in CGC. It also includes the more obscure books and the pre-code horror and the lower grade GA and the Atlas Seaboard etc etc etc. Right now CGC basically equates to one thing: Popular Marvel. And I tell you, CI, that the exact same hikes we have seen around 1981-1986 have not been reflected yet in CGC for the rest of the "waves". What we HAVE seen are the no-brainers. The Hulk 181's. The X-Men 94/GS, the AF, basically the popular keys. No surprise there. But to say we have been through the "standard pattern"? No way. We simply haven't. And we won't until that standard pattern re-emerges. And THAT standard pattern is "keys are going for too much and folks are looking around for less costly items." And believe me, when that happens I think we are gonna be surprised.

 

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

You are talking about standard comic collecting, which has little or nothing to do with CGC grading. As Dan like to tell us, the vast majority of comic collectors don't give a rat's about CGC books and just keep happily buying raw mid-to-high grade.

 

I'm talking about CGC graded books, where the big investor money will ALWAYS gravitate towards on the highest grade possible of the most desirable Key Issue possible. It's a sliding scale and right now it's centered on CGC 9.6 copies of extremely valuable and key issues.

[PovertyRow]

It's a sliding scale and right now

 

Yes, it is. Which is why I am asking about the NEXT wave. Not "right now".

[comicinvestor-migration]

Okay, then it would be CGC 9.8 keys with White pages. These big money guys always go up the scale and never down (until the crash).

[PovertyRow]

Okay, then it would be CGC 9.8 keys with White pages.

 

Gawd you are frustrating. CGC 9.8 Keys are ALREADY at the top. I am talking about that which is NOT being reflected right now but will be in the future (aka Next Wave). Man! "CGC 9.8 Keys". Why not say Action #1 9.4 unrestored?

[comicinvestor-migration]

You're looking for something that quite possibly doesn't exist. I do not see any huge wave of "heretofore undiscovered" CGC comics taking over the market and bringing vast fortunes upon those who sell them.

 

There is a reason why the Hulk 181's and X-Men 94's sell like crazy in CGC form; the general public/coin/card money can identify with those as key CGC issues with a track record of high values, etc.

 

Try getting Joe Lunchpail to pay big bucks for a Brother Power the Geek #1 in CGC 9.6. Ain't gonna happen.

[blowout]

what makes you actually think there will be a next wave?

the way i see it people only send books to cgc that they are going to sell, and we are already seeing all the most profitable books.

the reason silver dc, atlas, 50's horror etc are not being submitted in great numbers is because the re-sale value doesn't make it worthwhile. silver marvel's, bronze keys, thats where the big bucks are for cgc multiples.

i can't see that changing.

[PovertyRow]

the way i see it people only send books to cgc that they are going to sell, and we are already seeing all the most profitable books.

 

With all respect, that is a circular definition. And as such - there will ultimately be an end point. People will ultimately stop sending in those books to CGC when the market for them detiorates. So IF that end pojnt comes one of two things will occur. CGC and any ilk it has spawned (pardon the pun) as a competitor will go out of biz OR a few daredeviils (again pardon the pun) will be submitting things beyond the current norm. This has already happened in the past. Sure, the 1K and beyond books are the current big things. But looking to the past and the exact same type of increases, you will find many surprisingly obscure or "uncollected" books also increasing. Not at the astronomical rates as the major jeys - but increasing anyway. And, in my opinion, the real key to what may be the next wave is will be those books that have been poo-pooed to such an extent that there census will be far rarer, even if folk begin submitting them en masse.

[Guest]

The "Next Wave" will start once a competitor to CGC emerges and we go through the same process all over again, except this time it'll be CGC books re-subbed for certification.

 

Poverty - you ask why someone would re-submit to a competing grading service? In the graded sportscard game, PSA was the leader in the early to mid-90s and high grade PSA stuff sold for a premium. Then Beckett (BGS) moved in, and over 3 or 4 years, established themselves as stricter graders. The Gem Mint BGS cards began selling at a significant premium to the PSA equivalents. Therefore, resubmitting a nice PSA card to BGS to try for an equivalent grade could be profitable.

 

This could be a 'next wave' if a competing grader springs up.

[murph0]

So it's your opinion that books will continualy go down until they hit a point where they will no longer move up or down from? Wow, if this comes to fruitation it would CERTAINLY be hard to get new collectors..

 

Brian

[PovertyRow]

Poverty - you ask why someone would re-submit to a competing grading service? In the graded sportscard game, PSA was the leader in the early to mid-90s and high grade PSA stuff sold for a premium. Then Beckett (BGS) moved in, and over 3 or 4 years, established themselves as stricter graders.

 

Doc, I do understand and appreciate what you are saying. But it is a double edged sword. My post was specific "the next wave". I don't see another comic grading company coming into play and establishing themselves anytme soon. I DO see the POTENIAL for a new group of books being the next category to have attention paid to it. Hence my title "the next wave". I am not talking about multi-thousand dollar sales. It can be interpreted that way but it is not what I mean. I am simply simply about the kind of books that will become the next genre to which interest will be paid. If that means a 50 or 100 dollar profit so be it. I can certainly accept such a profit for the few minutes it owuld take to put the book on ebay.

[blowout]

"I DO see the POTENIAL for a new group of books being the next category to have attention paid to it"

 

if you beleive this then what do YOU think is ripe for the picking?

[comicinvestor-migration]

The best and the brightest (like ASM 1-50 in CGC 9.6 or higher) could actually rise a bit in price, but the rest will fall and continue to do so over the next few years. In order to get some excitement back in the biz and draw the speculators back to the fold, a CGC competitor is required.

 

Otherwise, it's a scenario of ever-increasing supply and more and more specs leaving the sinking ship. Deep-walleted collectors will keep some of the CGC market going, but there's gonna be a lot of pain in the rest.

[murph0]

So if it's a continously sinking ship, why would all these people out there consider dumping lots of money into books? Obviously, there are a lot of collectors willing to do so..but if it truly was a continuously sinking ship..I guarantee you the collectors wouldn't continue doing this. And don't tell me it's b/c of a childhood fetish with the book..esp when a book is CGC'd the only thing you really have then is a number and a cover. :\

 

Brian

[Guest]

Otherwise, it's a scenario of ever-increasing supply and more and more specs leaving the sinking ship. Deep-walleted collectors will keep some of the CGC market going, but there's gonna be a lot of pain in the rest.

 

Yes and no. Now that the specs are gone, the CGC market will be supported by those collectors like me who are tired of overgraded raw books.

 

The increasing supply remains to be seen, also. Comic books are a condition fragile product, prone to scuffing, corner blunting, spine creases etc, etc. There will be a grade cutoff for this supply increase. Moderns less than 9.8, Bronze less than 9.6, Silver less than 9.2-9.4, early (pre 1966) Silver less than 8.5 to 9.0 will see increasing supply. Above these grades, supply is unlikely to jump dramatically.