Ebay Price Surge

[joe_collector]

but there *must* be some collectors and dealers who've been anticipating the crash for decades, only to be disappointed year after year as prices rise...?

 

I doubt it, as there have only been a few times where an impending crash was even talked about. You can even go back to old Overstreets for proof:

 

1) 1980's Independants. This was a biggie, and well before the melt-down, dealers were posting in their market reports warning of a potential crash. After it hit Bob would devote editorials to the carnage.

 

2) 1990's Valiants - Another great example, and I myself have posted many exerpts from OS market reports that harp on Valiant speculation and predict a crash.

 

Other than those (at least since the late-70's) there really isn't a lot of crash talk concerning comics. When prices spike rapidly, or there is undue speculator influence in a given area, that's when the Crash Talk starts up, and it's always been right so far.

 

Basically, the Mad Money never stays in comics for long and speculators always pay for their foolishness.

[FlyingDonut]

but there *must* be some collectors and dealers who've been anticipating the crash for decades, only to be disappointed year after year as prices rise...?

 

I doubt it, as there have only been a few times where an impending crash was even talked about. You can even go back to old Overstreets for proof:

 

1) 1980's Independants. This was a biggie, and well before the melt-down, dealers were posting in their market reports warning of a potential crash. After it hit Bob would devote editorials to the carnage.

 

2) 1990's Valiants - Another great example, and I myself have posted many exerpts from OS market reports that harp on Valiant speculation and predict a crash.

 

Other than those (at least since the late-70's) there really isn't a lot of crash talk concerning comics. When prices spike rapidly, or there is undue speculator influence in a given area, that's when the Crash Talk starts up, and it's always been right so far.

 

Basically, the Mad Money never stays in comics for long and speculators always pay for their foolishness.

 

Also right after X-Men 1 and Superman 75 came out, the implosion. EVERYBODY knew it was coming, and it was just like musical chairs.

[joe_collector]

Also right after X-Men 1 and Superman 75 came out, the implosion. EVERYBODY knew it was coming, and it was just like musical chairs.

 

Sure, but my point is (and you know this) that dealers and collectors don't sit around, week after week, month after month, year after year, talking about market crashes.

 

There has to be evidence of undue speculation, newbie mad money flowing in, and rampant price appreciation for it to even become a subject of debate.

[drbanner]

I wonder if long-time collectors and dealers have had these 'market crash' conversations dating back decades? Not sure, beyond CBG and the 'market reports' in the OS Guide, where such a 'community-level conversation could have taken place...but there *must* be some collectors and dealers who've been anticipating the crash for decades, only to be disappointed year after year as prices rise...?

 

One thing is certain - there have always been common "hot" titles/issues that peaked within days/weeks/months of release, only to crash back to earth shortly thereafter (Howard the Duck, Superman 75, Valiants, New Teen Titans, the "1st hot artist of the day" book, the list goes on and on). I think most dealers and long-time collectors anticipated this happening as it had been seen before.

 

In that respect, what happened to common/modern ultra-high grade CGC books (remember the 1st 9.8 Spawn 1 on ebay - went for like $800???) was history repeating itself - once again, we saw a common "hot" commodity peak and crash. However, we have not seen the overall CGC market (or overall comic book market) follow that same pattern. Prices on the good stuff (pre-75) have flat-lined for the last year or so and we'll just have to wait to see if that trend holds, but as this thread illustrates, the almost-daily good economic news seems to have lit a small fire in peoples pockets!

[drbanner]

Sure, but my point is (and you know this) that dealers and collectors don't sit around, week after week, month after month, year after year, talking about market crashes.

 

[valiantman]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

The 1980s independents crashed while the books were still less than 5 years old.

The 1990s Valiant/Image/Superman75 crash occurred when the books were about 2 or 3 years old.

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

[drbanner]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

 

Not really...with the exceptions being books like the original Gold Key Magnus and Dr. Solar books that piggybacked on the Valiant surge, but didn't hold their values long-term.

 

However, I hear that there's a wide-scale crash fast approaching (although no one will ever sit around week after week, month after month, year after year talking about market crashes so I can't be sure) so save your money for next year's crash. This way, we can all chase after the books before the inevitable price spike caused by the cheap prices brought on by the crash!?!?

[joe_collector]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

Nope, but there's never been such a "wide scale" speculator run-up in prices either.

 

The key isn't old vs. new, it revolves around where the speculators and investors are, and what area is ripe for a mass price reduction. I'd say the years 1968 to present will see declining prices in the next few years, along with many older books as well.

 

Mad money ain't in it for the long haul.

[SilverAgeGuy]

But is is all speculator run-up, or has professional grading brought in a lot of new demand by bonifide collectors who were never willing to risk big sums before, being afraid they would be sold overgraded and touched up books?

[joe_collector]

But is is all speculator run-up

 

Of course not, but it's obvious that a lot of it is.

[dam60]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

 

Not really...with the exceptions being books like the original Gold Key Magnus and Dr. Solar books that piggybacked on the Valiant surge, but didn't hold their values long-term.

 

I was out of the hobby at the time, but I thought from like 96 to 98 especially books were being sold (even nice copies of things) for pennies on the dollar all across the board - does anybody have any anecdotes to relate?

 

DAM

[Rip]

Yea I would say there was somewhat of a wide scale slowdown around the mid 90's.

 

[DeadUncleBen-migration]

Just today I noticed certain prices are at insanely high levels. Some fool just paid $500 for a 9.6 Spidey 136! No more than 3 weeks ago one sold at the high price of $340! Also saw comgeek selling many modern 9.8s and 10s at crazy prices. And these books are being bid on and bought by relative newcomers with feedback below 100 or 50. Could someone please forward them that article about dumb collectibles before they blow all thier money? It is starting to remind of ebay right when cgc started - no way to gauge prices and wild last minute shoot outs. But it should make for a good sell off in about 6 months. The thing is though, once you see this happen on ebay , you wonder can it ever happen again. And then it does over and over. This is the fourth or fifth really big surge I can remember in the last 4 years. Most of the others tied in with movies but this is obviously driven by a combination of other factors. A great time to sell though.

 

 

I was the person who bought the 9.6 Spidey #136 3 weeks ago and was hoping to snag this one for about the same price I too am shocked it went for over $500.00.There was something screwy with this auction though. If you look at the bid history, first I was using Auction Sniper and had it set to bid at 3 seconds left (and I have NEVER had any problem with them before)and I got a report from Auction Sniper that they could NOT place my bid becuse it was too low but when you look at the bidding history I did bid and then was outbid by two different people with the winner bidding 6 seconds after me and someone else who is not even on the bid history before this bid with a date from 3 days ago? How does someone leave a proxy bid that does not show up in the bid history? and how in the world did someone outbid me 6 seconds later when the auction should have been over?? I realize there could have been time differences but Auction Sniper is usually right on the money and I have never seen them bid at the wrong time before and why say they could not place the bid when it was placed?.

[FlyingDonut]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

The 1980s independents crashed while the books were still less than 5 years old.

The 1990s Valiant/Image/Superman75 crash occurred when the books were about 2 or 3 years old.

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

 

Prices on Silver Age books dropped slightly from 1980-1982. LOTS of money was flowing into X-books and Daredevil books, but the prices on early Marvel Silver was, if not declining, at least stagnant. I think (I don't have them handy), that Overstreet showed a decline on AF 15 in those years.

[delekkerste]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

 

Just because something hasn't happened, doesn't necessarily mean it will never happen. No, there hasn't been a "wide-scale collapse of older back issues", but then again, up until the experience of the last 5 years ago, we didn't have a "wide-scale parabolic price rise of older back issues" either. Also, there are plenty of precedents, of older, once highly-prized collectibles crashing in other hobbies, as detailed in the CBS Marketwatch article I posted recently as well as other facts I have detailed in the past (such as fine art bubble and the short-lived Merrill Lynch-induced graded coin bubble, both from the late '80s).

 

Furthermore, the comic book collecting hobby is relatively new. Though comics have been popular since the late 1930s, comic collecting did not coalsece into what we know as a real hobby until sometime in the 1970s (yes, there was hoarding and speculation before then, but I'm talking about the introduction of Overstreet, the direct market, preservation materials, etc.) We haven't even outgrown the first generation of true collectors, so let's not get carried away with basing long-term future forecasts by making rear-view mirror forecasts using the last 10 years of data from a 30-year old hobby.

 

Gene

[fantastic_four]

up until the experience of the last 5 years ago, we didn't have a "wide-scale parabolic price rise of older back issues" either.

 

Are you sure we didn't have one when the pedigree concept first became commonly popular in the 1970s? It would be microcosm of the overall industry since Moderns weren't pedigreed, but from what I've heard from the older collectors, pedigrees are what caused people to first start paying multiples of guide on a regular basis.

[joe_collector]

Yea I would say there was somewhat of a wide scale slowdown around the mid 90's.

 

Yep, and that was more cause-and-effect at work. Overstreet kept their values at illusionarily high levels, but many dealers were blowing out back-stock due to high inventory and the threat of store closure.

 

That's why it's dangerous to use OS as the basis for historical forecasts, as we all know Bob smoothes out the peaks and valleys and just reports an incremental increase each and every year.

[Rip]

That's why it's dangerous to use OS as the basis for historical forecasts, as we all know Bob smoothes out the peaks and valleys and just reports an incremental increase each and every year.

Exactly. The Overstreet never was good at pricing especially in the early 90's when the Silver Age boom hit followed by the Golden Age/ Gerber induced Boom. One of the best way to track prices years ago was by checking phone auctions from the CBG.

[lou_fine]

Has there ever been a "wide-scale" collapse of older back issues?

 

Have books at least 10 years old ever been affected drastically by a "crash"?

 

Not really...with the exceptions being books like the original Gold Key Magnus and Dr. Solar books that piggybacked on the Valiant surge, but didn't hold their values long-term.

 

I was out of the hobby at the time, but I thought from like 96 to 98 especially books were being sold (even nice copies of things) for pennies on the dollar all across the board - does anybody have any anecdotes to relate?

 

DAM

 

 

I don't believe that Golden-Age was going for pennies on the dollar during this time period. I believe that there was a pause in the GA marketplace after the huge increases that took place in 94 and 95.

 

In fact, I believe that GA classic covers were still going for some significant dollars since I was trying to acquire some at the time. Didn't manage to pick up very many since virtually all of them were still going for multiples of guide even during a so-called slow period in the marketplace

[Aman619]

yeah, it was never pennies on the dollar, but big ticket books werent moving. My explanation ws that with the stick market booming year in and year out, why would anyone sink $30 grand into a comic that Overstreet would bump up 5% in a year when putting the money into microsoft, Intel, Dell etc would double that 30 grand with no sweat in the same time period.?