Thoughts about print runs and the census...

[RTBrandy]

I was thinking about this the other day, and was wondering if anyone else had.

 

Right now we're judging the availability of books by the not-so-accurate print run listings in hte catalog, or from diamond, etc. So the best we can figure is that, what? 15-20% of those books are kept in NM collectable condition? (Is there a rule of thumb for this number? I mean how many books are bought for kids or something and end up in a bird cage or the floor of the car, etc)

 

Anyway, the actual interesting thing is this...The comic book industry is cyclical, right? In the 90's there were ridiculously high print runs and those books are therefore worthless (according to many people). then the industry 'almost died' , But now, people are person_without_enough_empathying that the print-runs are so high the books are gonna stay worthless, again.....

 

With the advent and popularity of CGC I'm thinking that rather than published print run's, the CGC census will eventually be a much better barometer of availability. So yeah, there may be thousands of 9.4+ Hulk 181 or ASM 129 or GS X-MEN, and these numbers will continue to grow over the years, but isn't it safe to assume that, eventually, most books worth grading, will be? Thereby making the census a more reliable source of info?

 

Just looking for other people's opinions....

 

 

 

 

[aardvark88]

Cgc census is a great resource. Not sure if there were any Mile High 2 X-men #94's as the census for this book vs Hulk 181 in 9.0 up is about 50-75% LESS.

 

Also the census on SA DC keys like Show #4 are about the same level as GA Bat #1. Many fewer Show 4's compared to FF #1. As these are major keys, most of the raw fn or better copies have probably already been slabbed.

[garthgantu]

Well, we've had this debate to a fair degree already, but what the heck...

- I don't think the CGC census is an accurate reflection of anything at this point, except the number of books that CGC has slabbed. Even on that point, its accuracy will fluctuate over time as resubs become a bigger portion of the business.

 

- If most of the comics from 1935 - 1980 worth slabbing have already been slabbed, CGC would be sweating, and we've seen no signs of this.

 

- Doesn't Gerber provide pretty accurate estimates of print runs for most books GA through late SA ?

 

- If I had to guess, I'd say that no more than 10% of most GA and SA books 'worth slabbing' have been slabbed. There are definitely exceptions, most notably among GA and SA keys like ASM 1, but in general, if CGC has actually slabbed 400,000 comics, that's a very small fraction of the billions of comics printed between 1935 and 1980. Even if 95% of all those back issues are low grade, the other 5% is not slabbed at this point; only a fraction of it is...

 

- I'm not sure at what point it will be safe to use the CGC census as a yardstick for scarcity of most books. Does the fact that 0 copies of Little Lulu #100 have been slabbed mean that it's a scarce book, or simply that

...it's scarce in grade?

...no one who owns a high grade copy wants to sell?

...no one who owns a high grade copy feels they need to slab it to sell it?

 

[joe_collector]

- I'm not sure at what point it will be safe to use the CGC census as a yardstick for scarcity of most books.

 

10 years minimum, and only then on key and valuable books worth slabbing.

[RTBrandy]

Well, we've had this debate to a fair degree already, but what the heck...

- I don't think the CGC census is an accurate reflection of anything at this point, except the number of books that CGC has slabbed. Even on that point, its accuracy will fluctuate over time as resubs become a bigger portion of the business.

 

- If most of the comics from 1935 - 1980 worth slabbing have already been slabbed, CGC would be sweating, and we've seen no signs of this.

 

- Doesn't Gerber provide pretty accurate estimates of print runs for most books GA through late SA ?

 

- If I had to guess, I'd say that no more than 10% of most GA and SA books 'worth slabbing' have been slabbed. There are definitely exceptions, most notably among GA and SA keys like ASM 1, but in general, if CGC has actually slabbed 400,000 comics, that's a very small fraction of the billions of comics printed between 1935 and 1980. Even if 95% of all those back issues are low grade, the other 5% is not slabbed at this point; only a fraction of it is...

 

- I'm not sure at what point it will be safe to use the CGC census as a yardstick for scarcity of most books. Does the fact that 0 copies of Little Lulu #100 have been slabbed mean that it's a scarce book, or simply that

...it's scarce in grade?

...no one who owns a high grade copy wants to sell?

...no one who owns a high grade copy feels they need to slab it to sell it?

 

I haven't a solution to the reslabbing question, but, while we've seen lots of Key issues already slabbed, I think people will eventually start slabbing all their high grade stuff. (or at least gettting it 3rd party graded). How many times can we be burned by the advertised NM auction before the market for high priced raw stuff shuts off? For many of us, it already has.

 

And I don't mean to imply that the census is an accurate litmus...YET...but It's probably going to be more accurate than anything else in the future......

 

If 1million FF#2 we're printed, this doesn't tell us ANYTHING about the remaining High grade books, does it? This will apply to modern stuff, too, I hope.

[garthgantu]

Agreed, IF 1 million was the print run for FF #2, it'd be tough to gauge the number of high grade copies. I'd guess (total guess here) that the print run on FF #2 was no more than 50,000. If that's the case, estimating the number of high grade copies would be somewhat easier.

 

In the case of newer comics, especially those with print runs of 1 million or more, it's pretty easy to estimate the number of high grade copies: more than will ever be wanted.

[ghoulaid]

Always an interesting topic. My guess for the print run of FF #2 would be somewhere between 100,000 to 150,000. I really don't think ANY comic back then went to press for only 50,000 copies when you consider the returns (30%-40%?) from unsold issues (which were figured into the press runs). Fewer collectors back then mean fewer high grade copies. Take 100,000 as an example: my rule of thumb is .01% may still exist in high grade (9.4>) = 100 copies

 

(lets check the census now)

 

I see 3 copies graded 9.4. That leaves 97 more to go, MAXIMUM, that are in collections unslabbed or have yet to be found. That number may be high.

[valiantman]

Take 100,000 as an example: my rule of thumb is .01% may still exist in high grade (9.4>) = 100 copies

.01% would be 10 copies.

1% is 1,000.

.1% is 100.

.01% is 10.

 

Did you mean to say something like "one in 1,000" is still NM...?

That would result in 100 NM copies today.

(Personally, I think "one in 1,000" is a pretty good estimate for 40 year old comics)

[ghoulaid]

Oops. Yes, I meant .1% = 100 copies (or 1 in 1,000). While only 3 copies of FF #2 have been graded at 9.4 so far, I don't think it's too far-fetched to think there may be 97 more copies buried in collections out there. I doubt there are many more than that and certainly there may easily be less. Thanks for the correction of my (lack of) math skills.

[aardvark88]

I've never seen an FF 2 anywhere close to nm. Can't believe there are anymore than 10 true nm copies extant. Too many chipping problems with those early SA Marvels.

[lou_fine]

I've never seen an FF 2 anywhere close to nm. Can't believe there are anymore than 10 true nm copies extant. Too many chipping problems with those early SA Marvels.

 

Still a lot of high grade SA books sitting in private collections. Owners have no interest in getting them CGC at this point in time. It is silly to assume that everybody gets their high grade books CGC'd. As a result, still probably a lot of ungraded high grade copies of ALL Marvel SA books out there.

[towards2112]

With reference to the quantity published,

IF memory serves, I recall that once a year a publisher

was required by postal authorities to post in each

titled publication annually the total of issues printed,

given away, returned, etc, etc.

I read an article Julie Schwartz either was quoted in

or had written, maybe one of the Carry Bates things,

that gave actual printing amounts had to be accurately

posted to keep their subscription mailing rates at

a specific amount.

Just my 2 cents...

[Aman619]

You are referring to the Statement of Ownership ads placed in all comics once a year. CBGs new Standard catalogue of comics has collected nearly all this data printed in comics back then. They list estimated print runs for all books in their price guide.

 

But - - these notices only required publishers to list the exact number of copies for the mostrecent issue to date. The only other figure published was the AVERAGE number of copies for all issue sfor the poast year. So the Standarad Guide lists the same figure for all issues (8 or 12) for the year...and then jumps to the next annual figure for the next bunch os issues. So the info is really of somewhat limited use. But you do see the gradual serious decline in th eprint runs since the 60s.

[valiantman]

In case anyone is wondering, for Fantastic Four...

The SCCB starts showing Circ. Statement numbers

with FF #46 (Jan 1966) at 329,379 copies.

(That number is used for all 1966 issues FF#46-#57).

 

Not much change for 1967... FF#58-#69 are at 329,536.

[Professor66]

Is there a site to get print runs on all comics?

[valiantman]

Is there a site to get print runs on all comics?

I wish...

 

The SCCB that I was referring to is the

Standard Catalog of Comic Books, published by Krause.

(I have the new 2nd edition... but I think they are in the 1st edition, too.)

 

Not every comic has circulation statement or pre-order numbers,

but most of the major titles have numbers for at least some portion

of the run.

[fantastic_four]

(I have the new 2nd edition... but I think they are in the 1st edition, too.)

 

What's their format for listing CGC prices? I heard that was going to be new in the second edition.

[valiantman]

What's their format for listing CGC prices? I heard that was going to be new in the second edition.

 

They list how many CGC copies have been graded, and the highest grade so far.

They require at least 3 auctions at a particular grade to list a price...

 

For example, here is the full listing for Green Lantern #76:

 

April 1970, Cover 0.15, NM value: 150.00

CGC: 87 graded, best 9.4

9.4: 4 auctions: Low...1,600 Avg...2,097 High..2,489

9.2: 6 auctions: Low......676 Avg.....733 High....859

9.0: 4 auctions: Low......425 Avg.....455 High....515

7.5: 4 auctions: Low........81 Avg.....122 High....149

7.0: 5 auctions: Low........71 Avg.......94 High....137

6.5: 5 auctions: Low........45 Avg.......60 High......77

Circ: Statement: 134,150, Green Lantern/Green Arrow series

A: Neal Adams, Appearance of Green Arrow.

[fantastic_four]

Whoa, look at that print run. I thought books in the 70s saw print runs in the 200K to 500K range? Were the DC runs smaller than the Marvel ones, or was Green Lantern just not a high demand title at the time? The circulation for Green Lantern in the mid-70s looks about like the most popular titles today.

[Zonker]

GL was well on its way to being cancelled... that's why they let Denny O'Neil and Neal Adams play with the genre for a dozen issues before the book was axed.

 

Here is a comparison of Batman, ASM, X-Men from the late '60s to 1980. Source is the 2nd edition of the Standard Guide. If I am reading the Guide correctly, these are copies published, not sold (I believe 30% to 50% of the published books were "returned" -- or not -- as unsold).

 

I was going to plot this out and post a gif image, but never got around to it. Note the huge print run bump from the Batman TV show. I believe in general more DCs were printed in the '60s as DC was the incumbent publisher. Marvels though were much more collected/hoarded/preserved, so survive today in higher quantities in high grades.

 

 

Year Batman ASM X-Men

1965 453745

1966 898470 340155 255070

1967 805700 361663 266034

1968 533450 373303 273360

1969 355782 372352 235811

1970 293897 322195 180589

1971 244488 307550

1972 185283 288379

1973 200574 273204 127663

1974 193223 288232

1975 154000 273773 119231

1976 178000 282159 116992

1977 168164 281860 123725

1978 125421 258156 115260

1979 166640 171091

1980 129299 296712 191927