Showcase #4 - shifting preferences? BB28 the "new" 1st SA DC?

[Crowzilla]

I too have really enjoyed reading through this thread and will throw in a few other intemperate thoughts of my own (that echo some of the others on this thread).

 

1. about the Overstreet pricing: There is no surer way to kill off the demand for a book than to raise the price in the guide to what it is actually selling for. This is the secondary reason (behind wanting to show a consistent steady rise in prices) that books don't take dramatic jumps in the guide. it is one of the things that Jon Warren and Overstreet used to have the most arguments over in the days of the old update. Jon always wanted to accurately reflect the market, and Overstreet never wanted to have a time again where he had to lower the prices on the major keys.

One of the things that keeps demand high (on almost any book) is the perception that it still has room to go up in the guide (and the hope that the future selling multiple will be the same as today's). If Showcase #4 is slow today it is because guide value is at or close to actual value, while B&B #28 is seen as still having a lot of room to grow and thus has a higher demand.

 

2. historical importance vs. demand: I really get tired of hearing the circular arguments that go along the lines of "without xxx there would be no yyy". Yes, without Elvis's mother there wouldn't be an Elvis - that doesn't make her more important to rock history than Elvis is. Without More Fun #14 there probably wouldn't be an Action #1 - but it's not *more* important than Action #1. Historically important? Yes of course, but it's the demand that helps make it so. On it's own merits Action #1 is not historically important (unlike say the Declaration of Independence), it is the constant 65+ years of demand for Superman stories and the recognition of his being the first popular super-hero that has made Action #1 *THE* historical book.

 

At this point in time, Fantasy #15 is the most important Silver Age comic.

But if 20 years down the road, Peter Jackson films a string of incredibly successful Flash movies, Frank Miller pens the Scarlet Speedster Strikes Back and thousands of people become comic fans/collectors due to the Flash, then Showcase #4 may again be the most important Silver Age comic.

 

And speaking of films makes me want to address the ridiculous notion that a movie will have any real impact on the price of an already expensive comic.

No one is going to see Spider-man 2, and think "Boy that Dr.Octopus is cool, I should track down a nice CGC copy of Spidey #3 and drop 15K+ on it because it'll be a great investment". But I'll save that for another thread.

 

[fantastic_four]

1. about the Overstreet pricing: There is no surer way to kill off the demand for a book than to raise the price in the guide to what it is actually selling for. This is the secondary reason (behind wanting to show a consistent steady rise in prices) that books don't take dramatic jumps in the guide. it is one of the things that Jon Warren and Overstreet used to have the most arguments over in the days of the old update. Jon always wanted to accurately reflect the market, and Overstreet never wanted to have a time again where he had to lower the prices on the major keys.

One of the things that keeps demand high (on almost any book) is the perception that it still has room to go up in the guide (and the hope that the future selling multiple will be the same as today's). If Showcase #4 is slow today it is because guide value is at or close to actual value, while B&B #28 is seen as still having a lot of room to grow and thus has a higher demand.

 

Very interesting ideas! So which side do you agree with...and with GPA/ComicSheet reporting what things actually sell for, do you think that Overstreet's fears will be realized?

[Rip]

Finally a great post on pricing!

[fantastic_four]

Finally a great post on pricing!

 

Yea...I rode and needled people for two days in that "how to fix Overstreet" thread hoping to evoke a great response like this!!! I still think it's bad to mislead the people who don't realize the Overstreet NM prices are wrong on books in short supply...

[Aces]

@zillatoy

 

Are you ZillaF4 the comic seller on eBay?

[greggy]

@zillatoy

 

Are you ZillaF4 the comic seller on eBay?

No he isn't!

[Aces]

Ok thanks.

I was just wondering.

Similar names and all...

[Timely]

And speaking of films makes me want to address the ridiculous notion that a movie will have any real impact on the price of an already expensive comic.

No one is going to see Spider-man 2, and think "Boy that Dr.Octopus is cool, I should track down a nice CGC copy of Spidey #3 and drop 15K+ on it because it'll be a great investment". But I'll save that for another thread.

 

I have to disagree here. Daredevil #1 in 9.4 was a $5000 book before the movie, it jumped to $10,000 during the movies release and now hovers at $12-15,000!

 

Timely

[Crowzilla]

Are you sure about that?

I know before CGC really nice copies were selling for 3k+, and though I'm only a trial member and can see 2002 results, GPA shows a 9.0 in Sep 2002 for $3200 and a 9.2 in Oct for $6300.

That would place a 9.4 at well over $5,000 before the movie came out (and if you believe in the "doubles from 9.2 to 9.4" theory it would place it right around that 12K price you are using now).

 

 

oh btw, usually I list stuff for sale under my wife's eBay account - Littleghoulie.

(for the one of you who was curious).

 

[greggy]

Are you sure about that?

I know before CGC really nice copies were selling for 3k+, and though I'm only a trial member and can see 2002 results, GPA shows a 9.0 in Sep 2002 for $3200 and a 9.2 in Oct for $6300.

That would place a 9.4 at well over $5,000 before the movie came out (and if you believe in the "doubles from 9.2 to 9.4" theory it would place it right around that 12K price you are using now).

 

 

oh btw, usually I list stuff for sale under my wife's eBay account - Littleghoulie.

(for the one of you who was curious).

GPA only shows 3 copies in 9.4 selling. $14877.77 in Feb 2003, $11,800 in March 2003, and $14,178.35 in April 2003.

[fantastic_four]

Daredevil movie hype prices set in way before the movie came out, starting around mid-2002. However, I'm fairly certain there were no publicly visible Daredevil #1s sold in CGC 9.4 or better for at least two years before that--possibly none even since CGC started. I had been looking out for one to hit market and never saw it until after movie hype set in. There might've been one at the early Manning auctions; I can't remember and I wasn't looking back then.

[Crowzilla]

So which side do you agree with...and with GPA/ComicSheet reporting what things actually sell for, do you think that Overstreet's fears will be realized?

 

and to get back on topic...

Does the Comic Sheet have any relation to the actual annual "official" price guide prices, or is it a certified only guide? I was under the impression that no matter what is reported in it, it won't have any real effect on the annual FF increases in the big guide in a few months.

At this time, I don't really see GPA having any impact at all. Actual sales prices have been reported for years without seeing dramatic increases in prices.

 

As for what I agree with...I see both sides and it can be frustrating, but Keith (my best friend and the world's best SA article writer) and I have always been on the side of making information fully available and let prices go up and down. I think he and I pioneered the price guide insanity articles back in the day. At the beginning of the real "multiples of guide" time for high grade silver, it was very frustrating to report that you would pay 1.25x or 1.5x guide for books because you had willing buyers at 2x or 2.5x guide and report the sales only to see an increase along the lines of a book being $125 and then going to $133 or some such nonsense.

I remember I had the Western PA copy of Army at War #81 in late '91, sold it at a NY show for 4x guide and had a call from Bob on my machine when I got home wanting to buy it for that price. I thought it might take a nice jump in the next guide because of sales like that and how hot it was, but it had only a modest increase - even though he himself was a willing buyer at a high multiple.

Remember the first Sotheby's auction? The Spidey #1 sold for like 6-7x guide.

Truly high grade books were commanding nice multiples (and yes we could tell the difference between a NM- and a NM+), but it wasn't reflected in guide prices.

Also remember NM guide (at that time) had to be tempered with the 90% of comic stores who price their books an NM guide no matter what the condition and probably couldn't sell them even if they were NM. No matter how many people we think collect or what record prices we see, most collectors will never pay a multiple of guide (unless they are buying from Chuck) for any book, and many will never be able to tell the difference between a VF and a NM. These collectors and stores rely on that yearly 10-15% increase to keep them going and motivated. Doubling NM FF prices in the guide (even while keeping the rest the same) could actually have a negative effect on the market.

 

[COI]

I have to disagree here. Daredevil #1 in 9.4 was a $5000 book before the movie, it jumped to $10,000 during the movies release and now hovers at $12-15,000!

 

The earliest comparable sale I have record of is a DD#1 in 9.0 selling for 4K at the end of 2001, which is about $500-$1000 more than it commands now. Where are you getting this 5K figure for a 9.4?

[linmoth]

HI All: A copy of DD 1 9.4 OWTW sold for $17.5K way before the movie was released. On another note SC #4 has been and always will be the definitive begining of the silver age. IMHO Flash 123 is the 2nd most important book in the DC Universe's Silver Age as it was the catalyst for many storylines in the decades to follow.

 

Best, Tom

[tth2]

Whoops forgot here it is....

http://boards.collectors-society.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=230559&page=6&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1

Direct link to auction........

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2187011076&category=32728

 

Thanks, I'd forgotten about that auction, as I had some doubts at the time as to the authenticity of the seller (as did others on these boards). I guess it was for real, as the seller got feedback from the buyer, and the buyer appears to be for real (including positive feedback from some of the posters on this thread). I think the price would have been even higher if the seller had been more well known on eBay.

[tth2]

Truly high grade books were commanding nice multiples (and yes we could tell the difference between a NM- and a NM+), but it wasn't reflected in guide prices.

 

Then how do you account for the fact that Adventure 247, not an insignificant or cheap book, doubled in the Guide in the space of one year in the mid-80s? This was discussed in another thread on these boards.

 

But I do agree with you that Bob's general approach to increases is what I would call "sandbagging". In corporate finance parlance, he's not recognizing all of the gains immediately, but prefers to keep a "cookie jar" reserve of price appreciation which he can tap in the future to ensure that there will continued steady increases in future earnings, giving the impression of growth and health, rather than recognizing all of the real-market gains immediately and running the risk that there will be depreciation or stagnation in the future. I can't blame him for this approach, and every CEO in America would do the same thing with their companies if the SEC allowed it.

 

 

[tth2]

How can Overstreet raise the price on B&B #28 if none are selling?!? He cannot raise prices on "what if's" and conjecture, only documented sales.

 

Gotta disagree with you on this one. Look at all the miscellaneous golden age and atomic age books in the Guide, and how they have shown steady increases throughout the years. There is no way that you can tell me transactions actually took place with some of these books in any given year, and even if they did, that they got necessarily reported to Overstreet. And yet the prices moved. I think the Guide definitely follows a "rising tide lifts all boats" philosophy. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with this approach, it's just the way it is.

[Crowzilla]

Then how do you account for the fact that Adventure 247, not an insignificant or cheap book, doubled in the Guide in the space of one year in the mid-80s?

 

A couple of things:

1) This was NOT an example of only high-grade copies selling for multiples of guide, it was an example of ANY copy selling for a ridiculous multiple of guide at the time. Bob has always been quicker to raise a price when copies across the board sell for huge multiples (like good-girl and esoteric horror books earlier) as opposed to just high grade copies (keeping in mind the store owner in Kansas scenario).

2) Jon Warren running the update as mentioned earlier.

 

And even though the book doubled, it was still selling for a nice multiple for quite awhile. I remember one dealer from TN used to set up at shows and he always had 12-20 copies of that book and would run a couple of rows of his display with them. He was definitely inthe cat-bird seat at that time.

 

[tth2]

2. historical importance vs. demand: I really get tired of hearing the circular arguments that go along the lines of "without xxx there would be no yyy". Yes, without Elvis's mother there wouldn't be an Elvis - that doesn't make her more important to rock history than Elvis is. Without More Fun #14 there probably wouldn't be an Action #1 - but it's not *more* important than Action #1. Historically important? Yes of course, but it's the demand that helps make it so. On it's own merits Action #1 is not historically important (unlike say the Declaration of Independence), it is the constant 65+ years of demand for Superman stories and the recognition of his being the first popular super-hero that has made Action #1 *THE* historical book.

 

At this point in time, Fantasy #15 is the most important Silver Age comic.

But if 20 years down the road, Peter Jackson films a string of incredibly successful Flash movies, Frank Miller pens the Scarlet Speedster Strikes Back and thousands of people become comic fans/collectors due to the Flash, then Showcase #4 may again be the most important Silver Age comic.

 

I've enjoyed your insightful comments on this thread, but I have to disagree with this particular line of thought. Popularity, or even demand, does NOT equate to historical importance or significance. "Titanic" is the biggest grossing film of all time, but would anyone in their right mind really say it is the most important film of all, more than "The Jazz Singer" (first talkie) or "Citizen Kane", to name a few easy examples that come to mind?

 

Your point about "without xxx there would be no yyy" of course appears valid when taken to its logical extremes, but the analogy you draw is not the right one. Elvis' mother's musical success (or lack thereof) was completely irrelevant to her ability to produce Elvis. The only factor that affected her ability to bear Elvis was whether she was fertile or not! On the other hand, Showcase 4 and the Flash had to be successful on their own, as did Superman, because but for their success, no further launches would have been made. Same with FF. If it had absolutely bombed, would Stan Lee have been given the opportunity to launch the rest of the Marvel silver age? I think not. Hence, Action 1, most important. Period. Showcase 4/Flash, most important Silver Age. FF 1, most important Marvel Silver Age. AF 15, very important because it produced the most popular Marvel hero, which would help catapault Marvel over DC, but not the most important.

 

 

[fantastic_four]

Does the Comic Sheet have any relation to the actual annual "official" price guide prices, or is it a certified only guide? I was under the impression that no matter what is reported in it, it won't have any real effect on the annual FF increases in the big guide in a few months.

At this time, I don't really see GPA having any impact at all. Actual sales prices have been reported for years without seeing dramatic increases in prices.

 

Both ComicSheet and GPA report only CGC prices. Overstreet has always reported prices in the front, but it wasn't enough data to form a decision on...GPA is showing you sometimes 5, 10, or even 50 data points or more (on the more common books) for each grade. Lots more info to make a decision on; I really don't even see a reason for Overstreet to keep reporting NM prices on books in short supply with this type of resource available.

 

 

I remember I had the Western PA copy of Army at War #81 in late '91, sold it at a NY show for 4x guide and had a call from Bob on my machine when I got home wanting to buy it for that price. I thought it might take a nice jump in the next guide because of sales like that and how hot it was, but it had only a modest increase - even though he himself was a willing buyer at a high multiple.

 

See...I just don't get that at all. Why is this making sense to Bob??? Great anecdote by the way.

 

 

Remember the first Sotheby's auction? The Spidey #1 sold for like 6-7x guide.

Truly high grade books were commanding nice multiples (and yes we could tell the difference between a NM- and a NM+), but it wasn't reflected in guide prices.

 

Actually it was--possibly as much as or more than at any other time in the Guide's history. Overstreet guide NM prices in 1993 were $7,000 for AF15, $7,200 for FF1, and $6800 for Spidey 1. In 1994 the Overstreet prices shot WAY up to $20,000, $12,000, and $13,500 after the White Mountain sales at Sotheby's. Over the next 5 years they sat still and even fell a little...could it be that Bob thought he made a mistake with those post-Sotheby's increases?

 

 

many will never be able to tell the difference between a VF and a NM. These collectors and stores rely on that yearly 10-15% increase to keep them going and motivated. Doubling NM FF prices in the guide (even while keeping the rest the same) could actually have a negative effect on the market.

 

Why a negative effect? And if this is true...shouldn't he just drop the NM 9.4 column entirely then for Gold and Silver? Now that he's got the more stable 9.0 column listed, it should be easier for him to legimitately drop 9.4...the misleading prices listed for 9.4 books causes more trouble than it's worth.