Aman619 Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 PGCMint has a new "article" up on their website. Its a rant on why buying the best at any price is the smart way to go. He cites the MH Action#1 sale at $20K, and the White Mountain sales of AF15 and ASM#1 as evidence to prove that his recent purchase of the 9.4 Human Torch1 was just such a smart buy on a par with those deals.... and, of course, that the same comic, now for sale at 'only' 3.4xGuide is very reasonable! ...But it seems he forgot that all those previous great deals only looked smart after at least ten years had gone by... Read it for yourself: I remember when a NM copy of Action Comics #1 sold for $20,000.00 to a private collector back in the early 1980's. The hobby was buzzing with all kinds of questions and comments, which is normal considering that a record price was just realized for a comic book. Most of the questions were, "who was the collector?", as dealers desperately wanted his name. Why? To sell him more books of course. I remember he was simply known as THE DENTIST and only a small circle of people knew his name. What followed this amazing transaction was a series of gossip (actually a mountain of it) by disgruntled dealers, giving their opinion on this historic sale. I heard statements like this - "The sale was bogus, he paid far less than that", and "what insufficiently_thoughtful_person would pay 20k for a comic book!?", and "----- (The dealer) really raked that poor sap over the coals!", etc. I heard this type of gossip for years. Now, this dentist did something quite unheard of in our business. He kept the book! He did not offer it up for sale again. As the years passed, the dealers and collecting world realized just how smart that dentist was. Not some, but all lamented not buying that book when they had the chance. What is the book worth now? Can you believe he actually passed up an offer of one million dollars?! I spelled the price out so you can get a better feel for what I just said. The bottom line is that he bought the best and paid a visionary price for it. He was no dummy. This is but one story in our hobby. There are many, many, more. Take for instance, the White Mountain copy Amazing Fantasy #15 that sold for the record price of $37,000.00 at a Sotheby's auction in the mid 1990s. So much negative gossip was spoken about that sale that the original buyer actually backed out - for a while. Or how about the collector who bought the White Mountain copy of Amazing Spider-Man #1 for a record price of $14,000.00? The gossip was that he was naive and taken advantage of. Hmm.... both of those books ended up grading 9.4 by CGC by the way and today will easily fetch multiples of the prices paid. The list of such sales goes on and on. And the shortsighted myopic gossip continues. Dealers will always talk, always play Monday morning quarterback to transactions made outside of their involvement. It is the same in every hobby, so comic collecting does not hold the corner on the market of foolish prattle. I remember when a certain Hockey player bought the finest known specimen of a Honus Wagner baseball card. He paid an incredible sum of money for a very rare high grade card. And for that he was called foolish. The card's condition was held suspect. The auction was put into question, etc, etc. He later sold it for a profit and it ended up reselling for over one million dollars. It now holds the position as the world's most valuable baseball card. Last month I purchased a book that I have looked long and hard for - Human Torch #1 (1940). Since I first entered the hobby back in the late 1960s, I never have seen a true NM copy of this book. Nearly every high grade copy I saw was restored in some way. Although Bob Overstreet never listed it as scarce in NM in his price guide, I never could find one. The best that ever came through my hands was a beautiful VF back in 1998 that I immediately sold, thinking it was common in that grade (if I only knew what I know now!). When this beautiful CGC graded NM 9.4 surfaced, it is what I call a no-brainer. You do not hesitate, you buy it. It is the best. Not by a small margin either. The second best copy is an 8.5, so this was a very easy decision (Thank you CGC!). I was thrilled to get it and thrilled to be able to offer it. No other dealer in the world can offer you this book in the 9.4 grade. Until they can, opinion on value is of no value. I have been at this too many years to be swayed by the gossip of others. My asking price of just under 3.4x guide is actually below statistics for Key #1 issues in the CGC 9.4 grade, especially if it is the only one. There is no question that time will show this to be an excellent buy, an excellent opportunity. I made a statement a year ago, one that I am firm as ever on and it will not change. Buy the BEST and hold on to it. If you do this you will do well. (please read my other articles for more information). A bit of information about the Human Torch: ........(history lesson deleted...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filter81 Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 Well For starters I'd say comparing a Human Torch #1 to an Action Comics 1 isn't a very fair comparison. Action Comics #1 and even Amazing Fantasy 15 to a smaller extent make sense as investments even to non-comic collectors. Try explaining to someone why you just spent $100,000+ on a Human Torch #1 however, and most people will look at you pretty funny. I'd also say that if someone buying that Human Torch #1 for 3.4x guide value has to wait 10 to 20 years for the book to be worth what they paid for it, they aren't really getting a good deal. Wouldn't that be like someone trying to sell that AF15 for $125,000 back in the early 90s or asking $1mil for that Action 1 back in 1980? Of course if you're looking for a Human Torch #1 in CGC 9.4 condition, you don't really have many other options at the moment If he's got the only copy he can charge whatever he damn well wants for the book . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kryptonitecomics Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 I disagree. It's currently not a good deal, but as you stated, 20 years from now it may seem like a bargain. High Grade books do appreciate at a faster rate then say a mid grade or low grade copy, there is no denying that........but I would stick with a more mainstream title if I want to ask 3.4X book!!! Who knows, so one will shell out the dough, just not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fantastic_four Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 Would have been a more convincing article if he wasn't primarily defending and openly hyping a book in his own inventory, but other than that, it was pretty good. Could the post below from Metropolis have directly led to Mark's article? http://boards.collectors-society.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=gold&Number=346891 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_collector Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 ...But it seems he forgot that all those previous great deals only looked smart after at least ten years had gone by... That's exactly it, not to mention that to believe the hype of someone who stands to gain financially from your belief, is to toss yourself in with the sheep. Where were all these "investment articles" when books were selling for 1/100th of what they are today? Where were the gurus then? Buying up the cheap books, keeping their mouth shut, and setting up the CGC pyramid. When "investment" and "collectible" get put into the same sentence, rest assured that the boat has long since sailed. Bye Bye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman619 Posted January 4, 2004 Author Share Posted January 4, 2004 I missed the other thread..thanx for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfilosa Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 The real question is: If this is such a good investment, why is he selling it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COI Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 The man is in the business of selling top end books, so of course he's going to promote buying "the best" as being a smart investment so that he can protect his own interests. But at least he's talking about a book that may very likely be the best in existence, and not a Cap 100 in 9.4. All it takes is that one collector who is willing to pay his price, and give him a nice return on his investment. However, his entire argument is based on looking into the past and that's a mistake. Being a "visionary" as he put it dosen't mean using data from the past to determine the future, it's finding the next big thing. He gives "the dentist" too much credit. The man wanted the book for his collection, and he paid what it took to get it. If he did it as an "investment", he would have accepted the million dollar offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COI Posted January 4, 2004 Share Posted January 4, 2004 The real question is: If this is such a good investment, why is he selling it? Because he's a dealer, and he can use this top end book as a "museum" piece to help promote the rest of his inventory. He clearly and proudly stated in his article that he is the ONLY dealer who can offer you this book, so that gives him that extra bit of prestige. And if he does manage to sell it, he makes a nice profit which he can then put towards the next piece, and so on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doug014-migration Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 I guess it depends. The old saying goes that something is only worth what a person will pay for it, so I guess if the buyer is happy with his purchase it was a good investment no matter what. If it does happen to gain monetary value in the future that's an added bonus. If you were making the purchase strictly as monetary investment, that might be a bit tougher of a decision since you have to rely on someone else wanting to purchase the same item in the future at an increased price. My personal philosophy is to buy what I like and if I end up making a few bucks down the road, good for me, but I like to make sure that I'm going to enjoy owning it whether I can turn a profit on it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PUNYHUMAN Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman619 Posted January 5, 2004 Author Share Posted January 5, 2004 Any one who buys a six-figure comic book, whether hes a multi-millionaire or just getting by. is looking at that purchase as an investment. He has parked money in the comic, and expects to make money on it. To say that he's just buying what he likes just never does it for me. I posted this essay because of the faulty logic inherent in it, and that the arguments put forth were so self-serving. And contradict themselves. Human Torch is no Action#1. The huge price jumps since 1885 are not necessarily going to replicate themselves in the next 16 years. (This Torch#1 would sell for 5 million if that were true) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filter81 Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 Also, weren't all the books used in his examples (the Action 1, AF 15 etc) from Pedigree collections? Its comparing Apples to Oranges.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfilosa Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 The real flaw in his argument (which is the flaw that many of us have now, including myself) is the CGC EFFECT. In his example, he talks about books that are NOW graded CGC NM (9.4). Yet, if you paid NM money 10 years ago for a NOW CGC VF/NM (9.0), well the profit isn't as much (and maybe none at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aman619 Posted January 5, 2004 Author Share Posted January 5, 2004 also, for me, if the best copy is 9.4 and the next best copies are 8.5. 8 and 7.5s, Its th ebest copy period, and theres no need for the usual CGC multiples to even apply to the price. The multiples are for issues for which copies in ALL grades exist to choose from, and the prices increase every step up the ladder. I have a big problem with the CGC 9.4 multiple for books with one HG copy. If thsi were a 9.8 should it sell for $300K?? NO. Its still just the best copy....and should be priced more than all others...with no pre-ordained multiple involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkand Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 The article sounds entirely self-serving to me. Why would anyone try to justify the price they paid for any particular book? Pay what you want, I don't care. No, he's trying to justify the price for which he plans to sell his books. Anyway, if he's smart his business model is somewhat inflation driven. Say you go ahead and pay 5x guide, $25,000, for a $5,000 book. Assuming an 8% yearly guide increase (common for high end books), after one year the guide price stands at $5,400. With inflation, your $25,000 is now equivalent to $25,400, and that's less than 5x guide now, ain't it. Over time, it just gets better. In 5 years, the guide price for your book will (might) creep up to $6,800, but inflation will only have puffed up your initial $25,000 to around $26,700. You can sell the book for only 4x guide and still clear $500. It's just good sense to pay higher multiples of guide now, if you don't mind the capital expenditure, because you can sell for a lower multiple of guide later and still make money. But don't pretend you're doing us any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_collector Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 In his example, he talks about books that are NOW graded CGC NM (9.4). Yet, if you paid NM money 10 years ago for a NOW CGC VF/NM (9.0), well the profit isn't as much (and maybe none at all). As I've said many times before, the "investment collectible" business does not promote the vast majority of occurences, only the exceedingly rare ones that made gobs of money. There was a great example of this awhile back, where an "investment consortium" went around in 1991, buying up all the "dealer NM" copies of ASM 1-50 or so. Then they sent them to CGC in 2002, got back their CGC 2.0 to 7.0 books, and then took a HUGE bath on their EBay auctions. But no one likes to talk about those poor "investors" and instead concentrate on promoting the 1% of 1% of 1% of 1% that were in the right place at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe_collector Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 Assuming an 8% yearly guide increase (common for high end books), after one year the guide price stands at $5,400. With inflation, your $25,000 is now equivalent to $25,400, and that's less than 5x guide now, ain't it. Over time, it just gets better. Wow, you've sold me! Past performance obviously equals future growth, which has been proven in all investment markets, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zanarkand Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 Assuming an 8% yearly guide increase (common for high end books), after one year the guide price stands at $5,400. With inflation, your $25,000 is now equivalent to $25,400, and that's less than 5x guide now, ain't it. Over time, it just gets better. Wow, you've sold me! Past performance obviously equals future growth, which has been proven in all investment markets, right? My example makes no statements regarding performance. Just that the annual guide hike for high end books is 8%. Nothing to do with actual performance, a fact you yourself have decried more than once. Also, I used an annual average inflation rate of 1.6%. My example merely illustrates how he can take his 5x guide book and sell it for 4x guide in the future, all the while crying "This book sells for 5x guide! 4x is a bargain!" The bargain is an illusion created by the difference between the nominal and actual price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dam60 Posted January 5, 2004 Share Posted January 5, 2004 I disagree. It's currently not a good deal, but as you stated, 20 years from now it may seem like a bargain. High Grade books do appreciate at a faster rate then say a mid grade or low grade copy, there is no denying that........but I would stick with a more mainstream title if I want to ask 3.4X book!!! Who knows, so one will shell out the dough, just not me Here's something to consider (all my numbers are courtesy of FactSet data systems). From 1/1/90 to 12/31/03: the S&P 500 increased 326.74% the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 279.70% the Nasdaq Composite increased 340.48% just wanted to throw that out there - cold hard facts about the return on traditonal investments in a 13 year time frame. DAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
