Agree ..or disagree?? 2 2

[sfilosa]

There is NO Question in my mind that the stock market was a better investment than comic books over the past 13 years.

 

I say that because of the PAID NM price in 1990 but now have a VF/NM book.

 

Yes, a few collectors (dealers) might have done well on their investments, but I bet 99% didn't when you consider OVERGRADED or worst RESTORED books.

 

I know my true comic collection did not even double in that time frame mostly because of a few slightly restored key books that I bought. As I said before, one bad purchase can eat up the profit of ten good purchases.

 

Now with CGC, the chance of making a really bad purchase has been minimized, yet the chance of getting a great deal is also minimized.

 

 

[sterlingcomics]

If I want to invest, I'll park it elsewhere in the US financial system. That's why collecting comics are a HOBBY for me, not an INVESTMENT.

 

In my little world, getting MOST of my money back when I sell is the BEST proposition I can hope for at this point. Yeah, I might do well on my high grade books, but c'mon--I'm not going to get rich doing this. (Unless I want to upgrade my book grades 1 or 2 points, ask for multiples of guide--oh that's another thread-sorry).

 

Just enjoy the reason why you are doing it--the love of the art, stories, and memories. Just make sure you make decisions with your pocketbook in mind and not just your heart.

[AllTop8Me]

As a Golden Age collector, not a dealer, and one with resources to generally collect only books in the 6.5 to 8.5 range, I have a basic question for those of you who routinely spend many thousands of dollars on a book: What type of a person would buy a Human Torch #1 in 9.4, whether for $135K or for half that? As someone noted earlier, Action 1, like a relatively small number of other keys (Supes 1, TEC 27, CAP 1) is the type of book that would appeal to collectors of Americana generally, not just to comic book buffs. Heck, even a well-endowed museum might make a play for such books. Similarly, the market for the most valuable of all baseball cards, the 1909 Honus Wagner, in a country in which the number of baseball afficianados exceeds comic book affficianados by a factor of about 1,000, is very broad. But who is it that drops mega-bucks on a Human Torch #1? The seller's hype about searching for it since the 60s notwithstanding, I don't think there are many people with a deep emotional connection to this particular book. Is it the case that BSDs, and only BSDs, are in this game? But since the D stands for dealer, or at least someone who values the book largely in light of its resale value, can it ever experience the explosive growth of that Action 1 or Honus Wagner, whose rise can be fueled by a strong economy that enrichens millions of Americans, enough of who are willing to compete for these treasures? Sure, there are books that have experienced phenomenal growth that only a true comic book fan would buy (e.g. Suspense 3, a copy of which I own myself) but these tend to plateau out in the low five figures, a price that is within the reasonable reach of a collector who is willing to divert money away from the stock market to something he loves. But if Steve Geppi and Jay Parrino and a few others in their situation are the only ones playing the $70K+ game - to say nothing of the $135K game - and if the game is largely about buying books and flipping them, well, does that sound like a sound investment or a ponzi scheme?

[Timely]

also, for me, if the best copy is 9.4 and the next best copies are 8.5. 8 and 7.5s, Its th ebest copy period, and theres no need for the usual CGC multiples to even apply to the price. The multiples are for issues for which copies in ALL grades exist to choose from, and the prices increase every step up the ladder. I have a big problem with the CGC 9.4 multiple for books with one HG copy. If thsi were a 9.8 should it sell for $300K?? NO. Its still just the best copy....and should be priced more than all others...with no pre-ordained multiple involved.

 

Sorry but this statement makes no sense to me. Are you saying because the HT 9.4 is by far and away the best copy CGC has graded that no multiple should be on this book, but if there were dozens of HT's ranging from 8.0-9.4 then there should be a high multiple on the 9.4? Because that's what I am taking from your quote, and if that's what you are saying you have no comprehension of the market at all, not to mention SUPPLY and demand.

 

Also with your 9.8 remark at the end it sounds like you are saying that if the best copy of a given book is 8.0 or 10.0 that the price of either book should be the same because it is the highest graded copy. Again, that makes even less sense than what you wrote in the beginning !?!?!?

 

Timely

[Aman619]

your first interpretation was off the mark. But the second was right on the money.

 

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

 

If the best is a 9.2, or 9.4 or 9.6, why should the levels of multiples still apply??? The best copy in this case is not "competing" with books in all levels of grade. Why step up the price as you get to the best?

 

IMO, for any books with copies in all grades, if a 9.2 sells for 10K, and a 9.4 for 20K, a 9.6 would be worth 30K or whatever the appropriate multiplier is. But for a book with only an 8.5 and a 9.6, Im saying the 9.6 is only "worth" a number greater than the 8.5 - - NOT the same number that the 9.6 in the heavily populated census would earn.

 

The seller can ASK for the same multiple..but IMO, the buyer would be crazy to pay that number.

Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade

 

Do you actually care if your copy is a 9.4 or a 9.6 if its the BEST copy? When you were buying HG pedigrees, you paid for the name because it generally meant that you were buying one of the best existing copies. But noone really knew which was really nicer : MH, Allentown, Larsen etc. (except for a select few who had actually seen both over the years...but never at the same time)

 

Now suddenly CGC has seen and graded many of them. Do you really put so much stock in their number system that you'd pay twice as much for the lone 9.6 as the lone 9.4 if the next best copy was an 8.5 or 9.0??? I dont!

[lou_fine]

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

 

 

This theory will only work on the assumption that ALL of the existing high grade copies have already been graded. Right now this is not very likely since CGC is still relatively new. Most of the long-term collectors with high grade books have not even given any thought to getting their books CGC'd yet since they don't have any current intention of selling.

[panhandlefool]

I know my true comic collection did not even double in that time frame mostly because of a few slightly restored key books that I bought. As I said before, one bad purchase can eat up the profit of ten good purchases.

 

Now with CGC, the chance of making a really bad purchase has been minimized, yet the chance of getting a great deal is also minimized.

 

Truer words were never spoken...

[Aman619]

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

 

 

This theory will only work on the assumption that ALL of the existing high grade copies have already been graded. Right now this is not very likely since CGC is still relatively new. Most of the long-term collectors with high grade books have not even given any thought to getting their books CGC'd yet since they don't have any current intention of selling.

 

I agree wholeheartedly .... for Modern Bronze and Silver. But specifically in this case, and generally for similar books, I am talking about the 9.4 Human Torch, and some of the wildly nice MH lesser #1s (Crack, Wow etc) where the best copy, whether 9.2 4 or 6 or even 8 is less important than the fact that its the best copy and where we can already assume that the census will not change dramatically.

 

Lots more books to be graded sitting in collections....but not so many for early GA in HG..Agree?? Timely has an awesome collection, I presume, Geppi has a warehouse rivalling the last scene in Indiana Jones. But How many other Human Torch #1s above 9.0 do you think there are?

[PedigreeMan]

Yes, I fell that the best copy should sell for the most regardless of grade! Im saying that the RANK of the copy is MORE IMPORTANT than the CGC grade.

 

 

This theory will only work on the assumption that ALL of the existing high grade copies have already been graded. Right now this is not very likely since CGC is still relatively new. Most of the long-term collectors with high grade books have not even given any thought to getting their books CGC'd yet since they don't have any current intention of selling.

 

I agree wholeheartedly .... for Modern Bronze and Silver. But specifically in this case, and generally for similar books, I am talking about the 9.4 Human Torch, and some of the wildly nice MH lesser #1s (Crack, Wow etc) where the best copy, whether 9.2 4 or 6 or even 8 is less important than the fact that its the best copy and where we can already assume that the census will not change dramatically.

 

Lots more books to be graded sitting in collections....but not so many for early GA in HG..Agree?? Timely has an awesome collection, I presume, Geppi has a warehouse rivalling the last scene in Indiana Jones. But How many other Human Torch #1s above 9.0 do you think there are?

 

I don't know, Aman ... remember, the Lost Valley pedigree just discovered this past summer had a lot of really nice books from the 1930s in it. I don't think anyone can make a valid claim that every original owner, Golden Age collection out there has been uncovered until everyone who was of buying / collecting age during that time has passed on. That's a couple more decades!

 

Alan

[Timely]

IMO, for any books with copies in all grades, if a 9.2 sells for 10K, and a 9.4 for 20K, a 9.6 would be worth 30K or whatever the appropriate multiplier is. But for a book with only an 8.5 and a 9.6, Im saying the 9.6 is only "worth" a number greater than the 8.5 - - NOT the same number that the 9.6 in the heavily populated census would earn.

 

I cannot believe I am reading this! Let me set up a scenario here on two books, assuming ALL other things equal.

 

Captain Marvel Adventures #49 and 50 will be our test subjects. Here is a "fake" census on the pair.

 

CM #49

8.0 19 copies

8.5 33 copies

9.0 55 copies

9.2 100 copies

9.4 22 copies

9.6 0 copies

 

CM #50

8.0 1 copy

8.5 0 copies

9.0 0 copies

9.2 0 copies

9.4 1 copies

9.6 0 copies

 

So what you have alluded to in the other posts is that under these conditions you are saying the 22 9.4 copies of CM #49 should all sell for more than the 1 lone 9.4 copy of issues #50 because those 22 books are competing with 100 9.2's, 55 9.0's, 33 8.5's and 19 8.0's?!? Obviously I have used rather large numbers here, but only to make my point crystal clear. With 229 graded copies of #49 and only 2 graded copies of #50 you can be sure all the #49's battling for new homes will not make the issue go up in value, rather the reverse.

 

Regardless of what you may think or have been told, there's no way in hell those 22 9.4's of CM#49 battling against their lower grade counterparts will sell for more than that one 9.4 copy of CM #50!

 

The fact that the HT #1 9.4 he has is by far and away the best copy makes it that much MORE special. If there were 5 copies in 9.2 10 copies in 9.0 and 20 copies in 8.5 then the 9.4 price should be lower, not higher! Common sense here PLEASE!

 

Timely

 

PS. If a book competing with itself actually made them MORE valuable like you are suggesting that should mean Spawn # 1 in 9.4 should sell for $10,000, $20,000 in 9.6 and $50,000 in 9.8! After all it's one of the most competative books out there, as far as the CGC census is concerned!

 

 

Edited January 7, 2004 by Timely

[lou_fine]

Timely;

 

I am in complete agreement with you here. A larger supply of books should always result in a lower price and vice versa. I would always be willing to pay more money for a rarer book as oppossed to paying more money for a more common book just because it has a lot of competition with itself.

 

I am willing to bet that an 8.5 copy of a rare book would be selling for over guide whereas an 8.5 copy of a common book would most likely be selling for under guide.

[Aman619]

why are you distorting my point? Am I ridiculous? You seem hellbent to prove I am with your replies extrapolating bits of what I am saying.

 

In your example of two adjacent "common books, the 9.4s should sell for the same prices. Where have I said that a MUCH more common book would sell for MORE than a "scarcer" book in the same grade?

 

What Im saying, to use your example, is this: Here's you sample data again, but in my scenario, the best copies are a lone 9.6 and a lone 9.2.

I dont think the 9.6 should sell for 10x (or whatever the multiple is for 9.6 compared to 9.2) more than the 9.2. Because both are far and away the BEST copies, IMO IT IS IRRELEVANT that one is two grades higher than the other.

 

CM #49

8.0 1 copy

8.5 0 copies

9.0 0 copies

9.2 1 copies

9.4 0 copies

9.6 0 copies

 

CM #50

8.0 1 copy

8.5 0 copies

9.0 0 copies

9.2 0 copies

9.4 0 copies

9.6 1 copies

 

Foithermore, your example sugests that I should have been more specific about which books Im talking about.... Ifeel this applies to "one-of-a-kind books: #1s, keys etc. where the BEST copy stands pretty much alone. NOT to mid-run commons as in you example.

 

AND -- the onlyother time this 'rule' does not apply, is when I OWN the lone 9.6!! Then its worth more money than God!!

 

[stagedoorjohnny]

I agree that on these rarer books, specifically GA's, the gap between what a 9.6 sells for in the market vs. a 9.2 will close dramatically as time goes on. Either sale prices of 9.6's will come down or the 9.0's and 9.2's will creep up, or a little bit of both. It's still early for the CGC reports, so people will currently not pay a much higher multiple for a 9.0 or 9.2 thinking there are still many copies out there better that have yet to be entombed. However as time bores out, I am of the opinion the numbers will show this not to be the case. In many instances a 9.2 will be the best existing copy. That is why many believe the 9.0 - 9.2 books, at least in GA, are currently the best value out there. They may represent the best or one of the three to five best copies in existence. Only time will tell.

 

Stagedoorjohnny

[Mister_Comics]

I just want to be there when another 9.4 or higher turns up. I just want to see thier jaw hit the floor. I tend to believe there are other high grades out there that haven't been uncovered as of yet.

[sfilosa]

just want to be there when another 9.4 or higher turns up. I just want to see thier jaw hit the floor. I tend to believe there are other high grades out there that haven't been uncovered as of yet.

 

My opinion is that most of these books have been uncovered. That doesn't mean that they have been CGC'd.

 

There are still a lot of collectors who have no desire to have their books CGC'd at this time.

 

Are there hundreds of HT #1 in 9.0 or better. Probably not. But could there be five to ten. I would believe that is possible.

 

 

 

 

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 1/4/2004 at 8:59 AM, kryptonitecomics said:

I disagree. It's currently not a good deal, but as you stated, 20 years from now it may seem like a bargain. High Grade books do appreciate at a faster rate then say a mid grade or low grade copy, there is no denying that........but I would stick with a more mainstream title if I want to ask 3.4X book!!!

 

Who knows, so one will shell out the dough, just not me http://boards.collectors-society.com/images//graemlins/popcorn.gif

20 years later it’s still not a great deal. I doubt anyone paying $100k 20 years ago for what turns out to be cold title would disagree 

[Aman619]

I don’t remember starting that thread at all. And why was Timely jumping all over me??

but an interesting discussion.  So many of us still here posted on it too.  So what’s the Human Torch census like today? 
 

2 in 9.6

2 in 9.4

2 in 9.0

1 in 8.5,  then  5 5 3 5 4 down to F