pre-1980 vs. post-1980 books in 9.8 and effect of direct distribution

[mschmidt]

Again, I think your observations are correct. From what I remember, Moderns are graded seperately from the rest of the tiers, and because of the volume involved, things get missed.

 

Perhaps CGC deliberately gives out more 9.8's post-1980

 

If they make it too tought to get 9.8's on moderns, nobody would submit any books to grade

 

All they have to do is tell graders they only have 1 minute to grade a modern book, and by doing so, defects are going to get missed .... therefore more 9.8's

 

Exactly. I'd love to see how many more moderns have been subbed in the last year compared to previous years.

 

Getting a 9.6 simply isn't profitable for submitters with the vast majority of post-1980 books. Move the bar a little, and viola!

 

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

I think what you're both missing here is that, in general, it hasn't been tough to get a 9.8 on a modern book for a very long time now - it's got nothing to do with CGC's grading standards (which, to the best of my knowledge, has been fixed for a rather long while), but rather with the changes in paper stock, the printing process itself, and the fact that more & more stores bag & board the books immediately when they receive them from Diamond (which means higher-quality books on the rack).

 

There's no reason why it should take 10 minutes to grade a modern book - or at least discern whether it's a 9.8 or not.

 

I think you're looking for a conspiracy theory here when there really is nothing to be found.

[mschmidt]

I've also noticed that my modern subs generally come back as 9.8s now, with some 9.6s. Years ago, they would be all 9.6s and 9.4s. I'm pretty sure my grading hasn't changed, so something else must account for the discrepancy...

 

I feel the same way.

 

I've noticed that in the CGC Census numbers as well.

Perhaps it was Steve Borock keeping all those moderns down.

 

Or ... perhaps after you've done a couple of submissions where you've gotten 9.6 moderns back, you realize what you should be looking for so next time around you actually get 9.8's?

[MrBedrock]

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

Define "majority".

 

Between May 2009 and June 2009, CGC graded 23,000 books.

A little over half were from 1979 and earlier.

 

Clearly, the "non-moderns" made up more than half of the revenue as well,

since they cost more to grade.

Why is it that facts always get in the way of good rhetoric?

[valiantman]

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

Define "majority".

 

Between May 2009 and June 2009, CGC graded 23,000 books.

A little over half were from 1979 and earlier.

 

Clearly, the "non-moderns" made up more than half of the revenue as well,

since they cost more to grade.

Why is it that facts always get in the way of good rhetoric?

 

Because there's usually only one guy who checks... if he'd just stop doing that,

rhetoric could run rampant without justification... like it does in politics.

 

[MrBedrock]

 

there's usually only one guy who checks...

I like that guy (thumbs u

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Again, I think your observations are correct. From what I remember, Moderns are graded seperately from the rest of the tiers, and because of the volume involved, things get missed.

 

Perhaps CGC deliberately gives out more 9.8's post-1980

 

If they make it too tought to get 9.8's on moderns, nobody would submit any books to grade

 

All they have to do is tell graders they only have 1 minute to grade a modern book, and by doing so, defects are going to get missed .... therefore more 9.8's

 

Exactly. I'd love to see how many more moderns have been subbed in the last year compared to previous years.

 

Getting a 9.6 simply isn't profitable for submitters with the vast majority of post-1980 books. Move the bar a little, and viola!

 

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

I think what you're both missing here is that, in general, it hasn't been tough to get a 9.8 on a modern book for a very long time now - it's got nothing to do with CGC's grading standards (which, to the best of my knowledge, has been fixed for a rather long while), but rather with the changes in paper stock, the printing process itself, and the fact that more & more stores bag & board the books immediately when they receive them from Diamond (which means higher-quality books on the rack).

 

There's no reason why it should take 10 minutes to grade a modern book - or at least discern whether it's a 9.8 or not.

 

I think you're looking for a conspiracy theory here when there really is nothing to be found.

 

That's interesting, because I submitted a couple of batches of moderns several times from 2003-2008 and never got a single 9.8. Now the majority of any modern submission I send in is 9.8s.

 

And before you fall back on a little snip about 'knowing how to grade the next time', I was grading by "CGC standards" back in the early 90s, and while I'm sure I've become more lenient and accepting of some defects, I'm still a tight grader compared to the average Joe.

 

So, from someone who has been grading fairly consistently for nearly 20 years, believe me when I say that there are many "garbage 9.8s" leaving Sarasota nowadays, at least compared to a few years ago.

 

And its not a "conspiracy theory", its basic business. As the market dictated that 9.6 moderns weren't cost-effective to slab, submissions were likely impacted (just speculation, as I have no data to support the theory). Best way around that is to lower your the bar for 9.8s on modern submissions. More 9.8s returning to submitters means more happy submitters means more submissions coming back to you. Its very simple really. The only problem is the "net effect" of all this is an increase in supply, which generally means lower prices. As a collector of certain 80s Marvel titles in 9.8, I can tell you its getting to the point where even some 9.8s aren't worth submitting because the prices paid for them has dropped considerably. When that happens, and when it impacts Modern tier submissions, we might see 9.9 as the new 9.8.....

 

And if you don't believe me, take a look at the census and see how 9.8s populations have exploded over the last 12-18 months for many "common" 80s books, Marvels in particular. Even though there was financial incentive to have them slabbed in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 because 9.8s were bringing good coin, the census really exploded only in the last year or so.

 

I'm not saying that people don't hone their skills and learn what a CGC 9.8 is with each successive submission, but to dismiss the possibility that getting a 9.8 has been made easier as of the last year is to ignore the data and the collective experiences of many collectors. I've had this discussion with several submitters, couple of whom submit 100s of moderns at a time, and we're all in agreement: CGC's standards have relaxed considerably.

 

You can choose to believe differently if you wish....

 

 

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

Define "majority".

 

Between May 2009 and June 2009, CGC graded 23,000 books.

A little over half were from 1979 and earlier.

 

Clearly, the "non-moderns" made up more than half of the revenue as well,

since they cost more to grade.

Why is it that facts always get in the way of good rhetoric?

 

There was no rhetoric in this case. My statement simply wasn't clarified.

 

Modern tier is still the most submitted tier, is it not?

[joeypost]

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

Define "majority".

 

Between May 2009 and June 2009, CGC graded 23,000 books.

A little over half were from 1979 and earlier.

 

Clearly, the "non-moderns" made up more than half of the revenue as well,

since they cost more to grade.

Why is it that facts always get in the way of good rhetoric?

 

When did CGC raise their prices?

[dekeuk]

 

 

 

it's got nothing to do with CGC's grading standards (which, to the best of my knowledge, has been fixed for a rather long while), but rather with the changes in paper stock, the printing process itself, and the fact that more & more stores bag & board the books immediately when they receive them from Diamond (which means higher-quality books on the rack).

 

 

 

Which goes back to my original point

 

There are just so many "undiscovered" unslabbed 9.8's out there post 1980 than from the 1975-1979 era

 

The "undiscovered" are starting to turn up slabbed in huge numbers

 

And I am fairly sure that is due to bags, boards, hoarding, and direct distribution

 

 

I mean come on ...... 3 GI Joe #21 9.8's in one single auction ?

 

This was supposed to be in short supply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

 

 

 

it's got nothing to do with CGC's grading standards (which, to the best of my knowledge, has been fixed for a rather long while), but rather with the changes in paper stock, the printing process itself, and the fact that more & more stores bag & board the books immediately when they receive them from Diamond (which means higher-quality books on the rack).

 

 

 

Which goes back to my original point

 

There are just so many "undiscovered" unslabbed 9.8's out there post 1980 than from the 1975-1979 era

 

The "undiscovered" are starting to turn up slabbed in huge numbers

 

And I am fairly sure that is due to bags, boards, hoarding, and direct distribution

 

 

I mean come on ...... 3 GI Joe #21 9.8's in one single auction ?

 

This was supposed to be in short supply.

 

 

Yes, but in the case of Joe # 21, there were only three on the census as of a year ago (or some other ridiculously small number).

 

Now there are 15. A five-fold jump in a year? Considering the only lone sale of a 9.8 in 2006 brought nearly $900, and that $200-$300 wasn't an uncommon price for 9.6s going back to 2003, clearly there was a financial motive for people to submit the book en masse in hopes of getting a 9.8.

 

Yet, through the better part of 2008, only three were on the census. Now, there is 15.

 

Does that example alone not go hand in hand with what I've been babbling on about for the last two hours?

[dekeuk]

 

Yet, through the better part of 2008, only three were on the census. Now, there is 15.

 

Does that example alone not go hand in hand with what I've been babbling on about for the last two hours?

 

maybe

 

or maybe one guy had a case of them and is bumping up the numbers on his own