pre-1980 vs. post-1980 books in 9.8 and effect of direct distribution

[dekeuk]

 

We are seeing it over and over again.

 

There was a handful of books post 1980 that were thought to be rare in 9.8 and they brought huge money. But that huge money brought out a lot more slabs in 9.8 and prices have been falling (with the exception of books like Indy books like TMNT, etc.)

 

Each new sale brings a lower price.

 

I am sure there are more examples than this, but I have seen this happen with:

 

Daredevil #168

 

Spiderman #301

 

Iron Man #128 (what year did this come out? 1979? 1980?)

 

GI Joe #21

 

Just this week some guy sold 3 copies of Joe #21 in 9.8 IN ONE EBAY AUCTION !!!!

 

That doesn't sound rare to me.

 

 

By comparison, I do not see this happen with pre-1980 books.

 

When one 9.8 copy sells for big money, we do not see another 10 copies show up in the next year, each selling for lower and lower prices.

 

I think there are 3 major reasons for this:

 

1. collectors started bagging and boarding big time after 1980

 

2. collectors started more hoarding of multiple copies after 1980

 

3. the direct distribution system started, which meant unsold copies were not returned, they stayed with comic shops

 

 

None of these things were happening big time before 1980, which is why you get tons of 9.4 copies from 1975-1980, but relatively few 9.8 books

 

Opinions?

 

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I think your theory is sound, but you forgot one added component: It is easier to get a 9.8 on a modern than it has ever been in the 10 years I've been submitting to CGC.

 

 

 

 

[dekeuk]

I think your theory is sound, but you forgot one added component: It is easier to get a 9.8 on a modern than it has ever been in the 10 years I've been submitting to CGC.

 

 

 

And what cutoff date is CGC using for these supposedly "easy standards" ?

 

1980?

 

 

[Zonker]

3. the direct distribution system started, which meant unsold copies were not returned, they stayed with comic shops

 

 

 

 

It also meant that even casual collectors had access to books that were carefully placed on display, rather than the wire-rack displays common to the newstand distribution. Of course, even pre-1980, the grade-conscious serious collectors had access to books before they ever hit the wire-racks. But after direct distribution kicked in, I believe the population of extant high-grade books shifted dramatically to the right.

[dekeuk]

3. the direct distribution system started, which meant unsold copies were not returned, they stayed with comic shops

 

 

 

 

It also meant that even casual collectors had access to books that were carefully placed on display, rather than the wire-rack displays common to the newstand distribution. Of course, even pre-1980, the grade-conscious serious collectors had access to books before they ever hit the wire-racks. But after direct distribution kicked in, I believe the population of extant high-grade books shifted dramatically to the right.

 

 

what was the month/year direction distribution began? 1981?

 

 

 

[Bronty]

earlier - mid 70s

[dekeuk]

earlier - mid 70s

 

ok, but when did all comics become non-returnable

 

 

[Old Fashion PB and J]

earlier - mid 70s

Exactly. We keep seeing more and more collections coming to light. And we see dealers who just had these sitting around submitting and getting highest graded on many.

 

There are very few mainstream titles that have really HTF 9.8's. And I suspect the number will shrink more within the next few years.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I think your theory is sound, but you forgot one added component: It is easier to get a 9.8 on a modern than it has ever been in the 10 years I've been submitting to CGC.

 

 

 

And what cutoff date is CGC using for these supposedly "easy standards" ?

 

1980?

 

 

Whenever the modern tier started. And please don't deride an opinion you yourself solicited, it just makes you look like a douche.

[Zonker]

earlier - mid 70s

 

ok, but when did all comics become non-returnable

 

 

I don't think it has ever been the case that all comics are non-returnable. I believe the few comics still sold today at places like Borders or Waldenbooks are still returnable to the publisher. But I guess you're talking about at what point did each title start selling the vast majority of its print run through the direct route. That would have to be some time after the March 1981 cover date, when Dazzler became the first ongoing title to be sold only via the Direct route. As late as 1984 DC adopted a strategy of publishing a Direct-only version of books like the re-launched New Teen Titans and Legion of Super-Heroes, and then reprinting the same contents for newstand distribution 1 year later in "Tales of the New Teen Titans" and "Tales of the Legion of Super-Heroes." That experiment survived until 1987, so I'd guess it would be safe to say that by 1987 the newstand distribution was all-but expired.

 

 

[MR.COMICBOOK]

It`s actually easier to buy a comic in near mint post 1980 then in vg. I know because there are certain books I would buy at vg prices but can only find in nm and nm prices.

[dekeuk]

I think your theory is sound, but you forgot one added component: It is easier to get a 9.8 on a modern than it has ever been in the 10 years I've been submitting to CGC.

 

 

 

And what cutoff date is CGC using for these supposedly "easy standards" ?

 

1980?

 

 

Whenever the modern tier started. And please don't deride an opinion you yourself solicited, it just makes you look like a douche.

 

 

I didn't mean it like that, it's just that I don't see many 9.8's in what I am seeking

 

Those being Batman and Detective comics from 1975-1979 in CGC 9.8

 

Many of the issues have no 9.8 copies on the census at all

 

When there are some, it is usually 2 or 3 copies

 

Two years ago someone on ebay sold a bunch of Batman 9.8's in the #280 range (i.e. 1977) for $300 to $400 each. None of them were key issues.

 

You would think those prices would have brought more 9.8's into the marketplace, but it has not

 

 

That is why I was just a bit skeptical that CGC has lowered their standards for what constitutes a 9.8 book

 

Maybe they have for post-1980 books ?? I don't know

 

But I do not see any lowering of their standards at all for the 1975-1979 era where 9.8's are concerned

 

That's just my opinion, yours may differ

 

 

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Again, I think your observations are correct. From what I remember, Moderns are graded seperately from the rest of the tiers, and because of the volume involved, things get missed.

 

I've both submitted and bought 9.8s that shouldn't belong in 9.2 holders. I've also noticed that my modern subs generally come back as 9.8s now, with some 9.6s. Years ago, they would be all 9.6s and 9.4s. I'm pretty sure my grading hasn't changed, so something else must account for the discrepancy...

 

 

 

 

[dekeuk]

Again, I think your observations are correct. From what I remember, Moderns are graded seperately from the rest of the tiers, and because of the volume involved, things get missed.

 

 

 

 

 

Perhaps CGC deliberately gives out more 9.8's post-1980

 

If they make it too tought to get 9.8's on moderns, nobody would submit any books to grade

 

All they have to do is tell graders they only have 1 minute to grade a modern book, and by doing so, defects are going to get missed .... therefore more 9.8's

 

 

 

 

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Again, I think your observations are correct. From what I remember, Moderns are graded seperately from the rest of the tiers, and because of the volume involved, things get missed.

 

 

 

 

 

Perhaps CGC deliberately gives out more 9.8's post-1980

 

If they make it too tought to get 9.8's on moderns, nobody would submit any books to grade

 

All they have to do is tell graders they only have 1 minute to grade a modern book, and by doing so, defects are going to get missed .... therefore more 9.8's

 

Exactly. I'd love to see how many more moderns have been subbed in the last year compared to previous years.

 

Getting a 9.6 simply isn't profitable for submitters with the vast majority of post-1980 books. Move the bar a little, and viola!

 

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

[valiantman]

Moderns still comprise the majority of submissions to CGC, and that's a revenue stream CGC can't afford to take lightly.

 

Define "majority".

 

Between May 2009 and June 2009, CGC graded 23,000 books.

A little over half were from 1979 and earlier.

 

Clearly, the "non-moderns" made up more than half of the revenue as well,

since they cost more to grade.

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Majority, as defined by a single tier.

 

That still holds true, does it not?

 

[juggernaut]

I've also noticed that my modern subs generally come back as 9.8s now, with some 9.6s. Years ago, they would be all 9.6s and 9.4s. I'm pretty sure my grading hasn't changed, so something else must account for the discrepancy...

 

I feel the same way.

[valiantman]

Majority, as defined by a single tier.

 

That still holds true, does it not?

 

I would assume that's true... there's no way to know which tier was used to grade non-modern books.

However, in terms of numbers, non-moderns are still (slighty) more submitted.

[valiantman]

I've also noticed that my modern subs generally come back as 9.8s now, with some 9.6s. Years ago, they would be all 9.6s and 9.4s. I'm pretty sure my grading hasn't changed, so something else must account for the discrepancy...

 

I feel the same way.

 

I've noticed that in the CGC Census numbers as well.

Perhaps it was Steve Borock keeping all those moderns down.