Do today's high key comic price increases have a historical equivalent?

[fantastic_four]

Over the last 2 to 3 years, key comic prices for popular titles have increased at a rate that is dramatically higher than their average increases. I've tracked increases ranging from 50% to 200% over this recent period of time on all of the most popular Golden, Silver, and Bronze age popular keys. Has this happened before in the past?

 

Certainly, individual keys have enjoyed dramatic increases over a short period of time. Marvel Comics #1, Action #1, and Detective #27 have jumped 50% to 100% or more in the past, and if they hadn't, they'd never have inflated to the huge prices they're at today. But I'm not sure that all of the popular keys have experienced the kind of price jump they have the last few years. The reason I'm asking this question is because it may be a general indicator as to how sustainable the recent increases are. My current hypothesis is that ALL of the titles increasing similarly over such a short period is generally a bad indicator--that something outside of the hobby is causing it. And if that's true, then this externally-generated demand is at great risk of decreasing or disappearing once that external factor changes. The most likely factor that to be causing these increases is the overall bad economy. I suspect that if the economy recovers, key prices with flatten or decrease for a period of time that will roughly cause the values of keys to be in 3-6 years what they would've been anyway without the recent increases.

 

Does anyone recall a time similar to this in the history of the vintage comics market?

[delekkerste]

Does anyone recall a time similar to this

 

Yes. (thumbs u

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulipmania

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_sea_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Specifically related to comics, Golden Age experienced this type of price leaping in the early 1970's, followed by Silver Age Marvel in the mid 70's.

 

 

[chrisco37]

Specifically related to comics, Golden Age experienced this type of price leaping in the early 1970's, followed by Silver Age Marvel in the mid 70's.

 

 

I thought about that (in ref to Chuck's unveiling of the Church books and the stories of 3x guide, etc,). I wasn't around, so I'm not sure.

 

Did guide prices increase dramatically in the 2-3 years after the Church books?

[fantastic_four]

Specifically related to comics, Golden Age experienced this type of price leaping in the early 1970's, followed by Silver Age Marvel in the mid 70's.

 

Any idea what the primary cause here was? I was in diapers then so I don't know first hand, but I have an educated guess--the introduction of Overstreet pricing in 1970, which I'm guessing took a few years to catch on.

[fantastic_four]

I'll add one of my own--the double-whammy of the rise in Internet comic auctions coupled with the opening of CGC's doors in 2000 caused all keys to increase quite a lot in comparison to their historical average.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Well...

 

Examples are, say, Action #1 in 1970 was $300 (Maybe $350, I'm going off memory)...by 1978, it was $7500. By 1982, it was $11,500, which wasn't a huge increase from 1978. But man, that increase from 1970-1976-ish....astronomical.

 

It is my opinion, and this has been argued before, that the single most influential event in the history of comics collecting was the publication of the OPG.

 

I believe the crazy price increases in the 1970's were due either directly to the OPG being a standardized reference for collectors to figure out what exists, and so massively fueled demand, or the OPG simply had a hard time reflecting the demand that already existed, and played catch-up for most of the 1970's.

 

I lean towards the former.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

Over the last 2 to 3 years, key comic prices for popular titles have increased at a rate that is dramatically higher than their average increases. I've tracked increases ranging from 50% to 200% over this recent period of time on all of the most popular Golden, Silver, and Bronze age popular keys. Has this happened before in the past?

 

In laymen terms people want the high grade cgc keys and the other 99 percent of comics makes for good reading material.The keys and semi-keys are bringing in good money,the rest are dollar bin books. the danger here is how long can the keys hold interest?

[RockMyAmadeus]

While the Church copies certainly drove demand, they didn't have the huge impact in prices that the publication of OPG did.

 

Remember, not even all dealers knew about the Church collection for quite some time. How would they? Unless they talked to Chuck or someone else who knew the story, there was no news coverage, and certainly not many trade journals. OPG and TBG/CBG...maybe some fanzines.

 

If that's true, how would collectors know? (And, truth be told, weren't most collectors part time dealers in those days, and vice versa?)

 

It was such the dark ages of communication.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I'll add one of my own--the double-whammy of the rise in Internet comic auctions coupled with the opening of CGC's doors in 2000 caused all keys to increase quite a lot in comparison to their historical average.

 

I don't necessarily agree with this, and there are some reasons why, but I gotta get my rear in gear to SD.

 

More later, if you're interested.

[THE_BEYONDER]

I'll add one of my own--the double-whammy of the rise in Internet comic auctions coupled with the opening of CGC's doors in 2000 caused all keys to increase quite a lot in comparison to their historical average.

 

50 years of natural value appreciation crammed into a single decade.

[Bronty]

Does anyone recall a time similar to this

 

Yes. (thumbs u

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulipmania

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_sea_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

 

 

well put

[fantastic_four]

In laymen terms people want the high grade cgc keys and the other 99 percent of comics makes for good reading material.The keys and semi-keys are bringing in good money,the rest are dollar bin books. the danger here is how long can the keys hold interest?

 

Yes. But why are they paying so much more for them since 2007?

 

I believe the popular keys can hold their interest and value for at least 50 more years. I expect non-key and non-popular issues to start dropping or simply flattening well before then.

[Bronty]

Over the last 2 to 3 years, key comic prices for popular titles have increased at a rate that is dramatically higher than their average increases. I've tracked increases ranging from 50% to 200% over this recent period of time on all of the most popular Golden, Silver, and Bronze age popular keys. Has this happened before in the past?

 

In laymen terms people want the high grade cgc keys and the other 99 percent of comics makes for good reading material.The keys and semi-keys are bringing in good money,the rest are dollar bin books. the danger here is how long can the keys hold interest?

 

well exactly. the field of books that excite people is getting narrower and narrower and narrower. Not a good sign long term. Used to be that comics with good art/stories/covers sold better and that VF and up sold better. Now its the one or two key issues that sell, and the rest in 9.4/9.6/9.8 only. That just can't be good long term because those are the top 1% of books out there. When 1% is on fire and 99% in the doldrums it can't be healthy long term because if weakness ever comes to that 1% what's left? Nothing. And if nothing in the hobby is viewed as "sure fire price appreciation" anymore, the whole thing comes tumbling down like a house of cards.

[drbanner]

I'm more shocked at the prices for non-keys than for keys, like $16,500 for a Spidey 55? $10,000 for FF 37 in lowly 9.6? Over $3,000 for an FF 65? The list goes on and on.

 

For the major keys, the price increases appear to affect all grades, not just the top grades as with the books listed above, so I suppose that would indicate more sustainable prices for the books you're talking about.

 

As for where the $'s are coming from? Who knows, but it's certainly strking that these prices are being achieved during the worst economic conditions since the depression, at a time when the net worth of most people in this country (especially those who can afford to spend thousands of dollars on comic books) is probably less than what it was 2 to 3 years ago. Dunno...

[COI]

I'll add one of my own--the double-whammy of the rise in Internet comic auctions coupled with the opening of CGC's doors in 2000 caused all keys to increase quite a lot in comparison to their historical average.

 

Not to mention the fact that the generation that grew up reading Silver and early bronze have reached, or are beginning to reach, their peak earning potential.

 

Add to that the increase in liquidity due to both CGC, the ability for any collector to sell their own books for FMV, and the current economic climate which is no doubt inspiring people to move their money around, and it's no surprise that the market is where it is, currently. It's the perfect storm.

[Bronty]

In laymen terms people want the high grade cgc keys and the other 99 percent of comics makes for good reading material.The keys and semi-keys are bringing in good money,the rest are dollar bin books. the danger here is how long can the keys hold interest?

 

Yes. But why are they paying so much more for them since 2007?

 

I think there's a number of factors

 

- growing sentiment that the keys are the sure bets in terms of price appreciation

- sheeple effect (price has gone up! must be a good time to buy!)

- chat room ego! nobody cares if you post a JIM 102 but you'll get a couple pats on the back for posting that JIM 83

- regardless of what a few people will claim, most comic collectors have way too many frickin books. The vast majority of collectors have been collecting for 10-30 years and are flat out running out of space. Another long box in the closet? No thank you. So there is probably a good amount of desire to just buy some really good books and sell some runs to take back some space. End result is that keys appreciate and filler books depreciate.

- more spending on tangible assets with stock market down? A little appreciation on a blue chip key looks good compared to a 40% haircut on your stock portfolio.

[Aman619]

in order:

 

FF---- many good points so far, so Ill add the one I keep mentioning here: Comic books have always been "cheap" relative to their potential as collectibles etc. The past ten years (internet. CGC, lotsa money, and Marvel movies) have all conspired to bring attention, and money, to our little world. Most of that money came from within the community though. But for the keys you are asking about, I have no problem with the top few copies of American popular culture legends first appearance in 9.4 + to be "worth 50 - 200K apiece. Perhaps thats a tacit admission that I dont see them going higher, I dont know, thats a tough question to answer. Which is why you are right to ask it as part two of how we got to this point.

 

DELLI--- I always appreciate you savvy market takes, and you may be right.. but, I dont see the top end of our hobby like tulips or beanie Babies, if thats your serious assertion. Modern 9.8s??? yes, definitely. SO the concern for the tippy top is will the dam bursting below take down the top? Well, it will have to take down everything else first, and if it all goes south below the top, sure, it will cause the best stuff to crash too.

 

BRONTY-- I agree the field focus is narrowing. Good insight. we see it every day. Who can buy it all when one key costs so much nowadays. The trend is to the keys, not the runs. To HG not low or mid grade. And that cant help the hobby as a whole. But it wont hurt the keys, which I think is FFs concern here.

[fantastic_four]

I'm more shocked at the prices for non-keys than for keys, like $16,500 for a Spidey 55? $10,000 for FF 37 in lowly 9.6? Over $3,000 for an FF 65? The list goes on and on.

 

These prices shocked me last month, but not today. I'm convinced they're being fueled by inexperienced people with little patience. These prices are unsustainable, and I will be surprised if they continue much longer. My current hypothesis is there are really only one to five people with far more money than experience setting these records, and once they pass through, the prices won't repeat, at least until the next set of wealthy newbs comes.

[Aman619]

I'm more shocked at the prices for non-keys than for keys, like $16,500 for a Spidey 55? $10,000 for FF 37 in lowly 9.6? Over $3,000 for an FF 65? The list goes on and on.

 

For the major keys, the price increases appear to affect all grades, not just the top grades as with the books listed above, so I suppose that would indicate more sustainable prices for the books you're talking about.

 

As for where the $'s are coming from? Who knows, but it's certainly strking that these prices are being achieved during the worst economic conditions since the depression, at a time when the net worth of most people in this country (especially those who can afford to spend thousands of dollars on comic books) is probably less than what it was 2 to 3 years ago. Dunno...

 

DRBANNER--- me too! those sales make little sense except as rare "need that copy in X.X grade cause I have all the others so who cares what I pay." As for the economy's affect, or lack of it. As always , the money players with ANY interest at all in expensive comic books would fill a private dining room at Mortons (and often does!) And my guess is that they are all doing well enough to keep buying. Same for the next 200 guys on the money list. Buying comics has always been a luxury. Not everyone got massacred last year... or lost their livelihood w/o savings (or collectibles) to fall back on.