Do today's high key comic price increases have a historical equivalent?

[Aman619]

I believe these prices are unsustainable simply because when you do the math, it will not add up.

 

Every single GA, SA, and BA book has a top census by definition. Sometimes multiple copies at the top census. For the often absurd prices that are being paid for these books, if you multiply it times every single decent GA, SA, or BA book of any interest out there, then I don't think the total amount of money coming into the market can hold up the total amount of money required to sustain these prices.

 

So it begs the question - how are prices holding up? I believe here is a constant rotation between books being acquired and sold. This gives the illusion of price appreciation. Witness many top census books now hitting all the auction sites, yet at the same time top census books are hitting top prices. There is a rotation going on. You can even call it musical chairs. When it stops nobody knows.

 

I've seen it before in all other markets. The people who argue that this can go on for a while will use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. The people who argue we are at the top will also use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. But the bottom line is, the music will stop. It always does when you deviate so far from the mean.

 

Don't get stuck with that Spiday #55 when the music does stop. You might just realize that it might have been better to use that money to take that vacation you always wanted rather than put it into something that "merely" sports a "9.8" in the corner and is "top census."

 

But what do I know!

 

 

well, nothing is sustainable forever. Comics are 70 years old. Organized collecting is 50 years. Price Guides 40.

 

It took this long for prices to reach where they are for collectibles related to characters and licensed properties with world wide awareness, like Mickey Mouse.

 

I think you and others are misreading the question a bit. FF isnt asking about GA commons, or even Modern 9.8s--- just the keys. And sure, if every comicbook went on sale tomorrow there'd be an inevitable crash. Do you seriously think thats going to happen absent a total crash in lots of other things? Can it happen? Will it happen/ If so When?

 

Comics will be dust and/or worthless someday. Tell me when and I can plan ahead.

[joe_collector]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies.

 

Then take me off ignore.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies. Its probably helped quite a bit (not altogether sure why, since its not like johnny moviegoer is buying these books, but maybe the old guard just gets reinvigorated by seeing their favorites onscreen).

 

I believe there is a lot of power to the movies, look at ASM 300/MARVEL SPOTLIGHT 5 prices pre- Spiderman 3/Ghost Rider movies then post prices, also just recently New Mutants 98, Avengers 4,Killing Joke,Watchmen set and now Showcase 22. Some old timers just don`t want to admit that there is a Hollywood effect.

[DarkKnightReturns]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies. Its probably helped quite a bit (not altogether sure why, since its not like johnny moviegoer is buying these books, but maybe the old guard just gets reinvigorated by seeing their favorites onscreen).

 

I believe there is a lot of power to the movies, look at ASM 300/MARVEL SPOTLIGHT 5 prices pre- Spiderman 3/Ghost Rider movies then post prices, also just recently New Mutants 98, Avengers 4,Killing Joke,Watchmen set and now Showcase 22. Some old timers just don`t want to admit that there is a Hollywood effect.

 

The thing about the movies is -

Are they bringing in new collectors or is it just creating hype amongst the already existing collectors?

I believe it is the later of the two

[COI]

And sure, if every comicbook went on sale tomorrow there'd be an inevitable crash.

 

I think a collection like Brulato's could single-handedly tank the market for SA Marvels if it were ever offered up.

 

I remember that "Italian treasure" ASM run that was offered by Heritage; an AF 15 in 9.4 and an ASM run in 9.4-9.8; the market at the time didn't seem to be able to fully absorb collection, and the owner took a bath on it, especially the big boys.

[Hedge Collector]

...well, nothing is sustainable forever. Comics are 70 years old. Organized collecting is 50 years. Price Guides 40.

 

...

 

And sure, if every comicbook went on sale tomorrow there'd be an inevitable crash. Do you seriously think thats going to happen absent a total crash in lots of other things? Can it happen? Will it happen/ If so When?

 

Comics will be dust and/or worthless someday. Tell me when and I can plan ahead.

 

Nothing is sustainable forever...if all the comics went on sale tomorow, there would be a crash...comics will all be dust someday.

 

You argue via extremitis, and I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

 

[Aman619]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies. Its probably helped quite a bit (not altogether sure why, since its not like johnny moviegoer is buying these books, but maybe the old guard just gets reinvigorated by seeing their favorites onscreen).

 

it helps because having billion dollar movie franchises solidifies teh characters are important and well-known bedrocks of popular culture.... which, of course reinforces values and demand for the related important collectibles related to the characters.

 

Wouldnt anyone feel safer paying top dollar for an AF15 than an Jaguar or Nemesis first appearance? The movies have been a large part of the explosive growth in this decade. That and the internet and numbered grading.

[Aman619]

...well, nothing is sustainable forever. Comics are 70 years old. Organized collecting is 50 years. Price Guides 40.

 

...

 

And sure, if every comicbook went on sale tomorrow there'd be an inevitable crash. Do you seriously think thats going to happen absent a total crash in lots of other things? Can it happen? Will it happen/ If so When?

 

Comics will be dust and/or worthless someday. Tell me when and I can plan ahead.

 

Nothing is sustainable forever...if all the comics went on sale tomorow, there would be a crash...comics will all be dust someday.

 

You argue via extremitis, and I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.

 

 

you said that if all comics are worth what they are listed at and all went on sale at the same time, thered be a crash because the prices are only sustainable because they are held on to and placed on sale slowly a small percentage at a time.

 

no?

 

So Im saying thats like saying that things would be very different if the sun never set, and there was no night. Thats never going to happen, and neither will every comic be up for sale at the same time. SO they are worth what they sell for when they sell.

[Aman619]

I believe these prices are unsustainable simply because when you do the math, it will not add up.

 

Every single GA, SA, and BA book has a top census by definition. Sometimes multiple copies at the top census. For the often absurd prices that are being paid for these books, if you multiply it times every single decent GA, SA, or BA book of any interest out there, then I don't think the total amount of money coming into the market can hold up the total amount of money required to sustain these prices.

 

So it begs the question - how are prices holding up? I believe here is a constant rotation between books being acquired and sold. This gives the illusion of price appreciation. Witness many top census books now hitting all the auction sites, yet at the same time top census books are hitting top prices. There is a rotation going on. You can even call it musical chairs. When it stops nobody knows.

 

I've seen it before in all other markets. The people who argue that this can go on for a while will use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. The people who argue we are at the top will also use the same arguments as they did in stocks, real estate, etc. But the bottom line is, the music will stop. It always does when you deviate so far from the mean.

 

Don't get stuck with that Spiday #55 when the music does stop. You might just realize that it might have been better to use that money to take that vacation you always wanted rather than put it into something that "merely" sports a "9.8" in the corner and is "top census."

 

But what do I know!

 

as I often have to, I went back and reread your post. Your point was about rotation, which is a good one. I agree that buyers sell other comics to purchase new ones, often at higher and higher prices. Thats a facet of FFs question here, too. And I agree it does leave a bunch of books not worth what they are "worth". But IMO thats part of the game of collecting. Lots of my books suffer from a dwindling value as their star wanes in the markets eyes.

 

 

 

[runningman]

yeah I can't believe we've gone this many posts without someone bringing up the movies. Its probably helped quite a bit (not altogether sure why, since its not like johnny moviegoer is buying these books, but maybe the old guard just gets reinvigorated by seeing their favorites onscreen).

 

This is what happened to me. I walked out of the first Spidey movie, and a short time later I was buying new and old comics again.

[bounty_coder]

While a bit off topic from the subject in the title I think there are some important things to realize here.

 

So we've all come to the realization that more money than ever is starting to flood into our hobby. But why?

 

As many have eluded to, there has been a bit of a flight into "hard assets" such as collectibles. Items that you can enjoy while you own them. A large reason for this "flight" could be due to the toppling of peoples 401K's (or stock assets). Less and Less people are willing to invest in stocks right now. And I'm sure this is why Metropolis held that session with Morgan Stanley recently. They know that there is money on the sidelines and are looking to take advantage of that by feeding them good ole' boys chunks of their inventory for new record sales. Linkie ( Morgan-Stanley-Investing-in-Comics-101 )

 

Things could turn out any number of ways (please have fun with adding your own):

 

1.) The economy gets back on track, unemployment drops and the stock market rises. What will this do to the comic market? Well I would think that Mid grade to HG books will rise in price as the more "common folk" will theoretically have more cash to spend. I would think that UBER HG will start to drop in value as those investors start to pull out in "flight" back to the more "playable" stock market that is being fueled by an economic resurgance.

 

2.) Our economy does not recover for a long time. People are still weary of the stock market and continue to invest in collectibles that are "liquid" such as CGC comics. Mid-grade to High Grade (9.4 or less on more common books) stays stagnant.

 

3.) Our economy worsens, unemployment increases and the stuff is hitting the fan. Well if we get here, people won't be investing in comics anymore...they will be investing in precious metals, food and ammunition

 

- bounty

 

[Cimm]

It all comes down to the old adage... "buy what you like", because it might not always be worth a lot, but you'll always like it... If you stop liking it, or find something you want more, sell it, and hope someone else wants it at least as much as you did when you acquired it...

 

The recent threads about best and worse artists will tell you everything you need to know about the diversity of taste and aesthetic found in our hobby... one man''s treasure is another man's trash...

 

With the internet and third-party graded comics hitting at roughly the same time, it has given us a decade of rising prices, and brought more and more books to light. eBay has allowed your average Joe to sell his comics straight to the consumer, as opposed to going through an established dealer. CGC has allowed the consumer to purchase with much more confidence, and it has contributed to your average book staying in the same condition from sale to sale... The amount of Golden Age that has come out of the woodwork this decade is staggering... I think if Gerber did his journal today, some of the numbers would be really different. Some of the books that were thought rare or non-existent are readily available, and some of the ones that were thought to be common have been discovered to be non-existent in decent unrestored condition...

 

Comic collecting as we know it has only been around for a dozen years or so... who knows where it is going to go?

 

The answer is no one! This may be the last bright flare before our hobby dies forever,or it could be just the beginning of the world at large realizing just how wonderful our little four colour world really is... I suspect the former, and hope for the latter...

 

But, regardless, I buy what I like, and encourage others to do the same!

[joe_collector]

It's also important to remember that chasing true "First Appearances" (post start-of-SA biggies), as a high-value collectible trend, is a relatively recent one that really started with the sportscards guys flooding the market in the mid-to-late-80's and driving the "rookie card" phenomenon to unheard of prices.

 

Due to the late-80's explosion, it's tough to say where this will all go, as those ~20 years amount to very little historical data - outside of the earliest GA hyper-keys that basically started comics.

[Green]

Does anyone recall a time similar to this

 

Yes. (thumbs u

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulipmania

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_sea_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble

 

Wow you busted out tulipmania. That is oldschool

[Aman619]

there are no "investor/speculators" coming into the hobby. Not enough to have caused the price increases talked about. Your argument makes some sense economically in the abstract, that smart money would flow to hobbies etc. But, in fact, Nasdaq has blown away comics in 2009 bouncing off lows. If anyone moved into comics they lost a better opportunity in the real markets you say they fled here from.

 

The fact is that comics are only viable investments for us comics fans who WANT them first and as a moneymaker second.

 

 

I believe Vinnie's Morgan Stanley adventure was as much his idea as his broker friend's to attempt to fire up a little business. No harm in that. But it didnt signal WALL ST hedging our way in any appreciable way. I have a friend invested at Morgan and who gets all of Morgans sales materials and he never heard of this investment summit for comics potential. Its not like MS called the WSJ and NYT and Barrons and they all ran with the big breaking news about a shift to comics.

 

[bounty_coder]

there are no "investor/speculators" coming into the hobby. Not enough to have caused the price increases talked about. Your argument makes some sense economically in the abstract, that smart money would flow to hobbies etc. But, in fact, Nasdaq has blown away comics in 2009 bouncing off lows. If anyone moved into comics they lost a better opportunity in the real markets you say they fled here from.

 

The fact is that comics are only viable investments for us comics fans who WANT them first and as a moneymaker second.

 

 

I believe Vinnie's Morgan Stanley adventure was as much his idea as his broker friend's to attempt to fire up a little business. No harm in that. But it didnt signal WALL ST hedging our way in any appreciable way. I have a friend invested at Morgan and who gets all of Morgans sales materials and he never heard of this investment summit for comics potential. Its not like MS called the WSJ and NYT and Barrons and they all ran with the big breaking news about a shift to comics.

 

What do you mean that there are no investors/speculators coming into the hobby? Do you have some sort of inside track on that intel? With the prices realized on a lot of books recently in the current economic condition, there has to be a few big wallets walking over to the funny books section of the carnival.

[maloney414]

This is true for myself. I've been seriously collecting keys and 1st appearances of Silver Age Marvels for the past 2 years.

 

What grades?

 

Well it depends on the value of the book and what I can afford at the time I buy. Like I said in my post, I'm not investing in these books to sell. Using the "musical chairs" analogy previously stated I'm definitely the LAST guy holding the book.

 

My AF #15 is low grade, and the Hulk #1 I'm going to buy sometime this year will also be low grade. My single digit Amazing Spider-Mans are also low grade.

 

My Daredevil #1, Avengers #4, GS X-Men #1, Hulk 180 and 181 are all mid to high grade. Plus, my Amazing Spider-Man double digits fall into this category. (thumbs u

 

 

 

[Zonker]

there are no "investor/speculators" coming into the hobby. Not enough to have caused the price increases talked about. Your argument makes some sense economically in the abstract, that smart money would flow to hobbies etc. But, in fact, Nasdaq has blown away comics in 2009 bouncing off lows. If anyone moved into comics they lost a better opportunity in the real markets you say they fled here from.

 

 

 

Just because we now know the Nasdaq (& the Dow & SP500, etc) was a great investment since March 9 doesn't mean that people knew back then they would getter a better return in the stock market than from "investment grade" funny books. I'm not saying it necessarily happened, just that it is very possible with all the doom & gloom surrounding the stock market in the first quarter.

[the blob]

Howard the Duck 1 was a $25 book in like 1976, right?

[500Club]

We've fractionated the market into HG, super HG and ultra HG. If you subtract the upward surge in the ultra HG books, I wonder what the growth of key book prices would look like? i.e. take a book like FF 48 in 8.5....

 

On the topic, I see the Avengers 16 9.6 on CLink is at 22.5K.

 

You've picked two keys that aren't good comparisons for now due to special attributes that they possess. FF 48 is governed by the fact that high grade copies have survived in extraordinarily high supply due to being a part of at least one warehouse find, the Mile High 2 collection. There may be some other source for that book as well--all I know is there's just a ton of them out there, a disproportionately large number compared to almost any other key. Other Marvel titles from that same month are in similar high supply, with Spidey 33 being the only example I can think of off-hand.

 

Avengers 16 is being fueled by movie hype. The reason it's high I believe to be different than the rise of most other keys.

 

Maybe different examples would be better..... What I'm trying to say is that if you gather a cross section of keys, take the grades below 8.5, and look at the price appreciation, I don't think the trend will be that shocking.

 

Our perception is skewed by the attention some of the recent monster sales have gotten.