If you could buy any 5 books, and sell in exactly 10 years. Which 5 and why?

[Silver Surfer]

MC#1 (October copy)

AF#15

Action #1

Tec #27

Cap #1

[Hedge Collector]

Again, not to be a contrarian, but the question was not what are the 5 most valuable comics, which wouldhave Action # 1, Tec 27, Supes #1, 3 of the highest golden age, as well as AF 15, and FF 1, which are flat out the 2 most expensive silver age.

 

That would merely require you to look on your Overstreet guide, pick the names at the very top of the most expensive list, and walla. It seems counter intuitive to me that the books most likely to make the greatest PERCENT moves are the ones which currently are now the most expensive.

 

 

I don't think this is necessarily what some of us are thinking in choosing these similar key GA books.

 

We just know that when you peel away the short-term hype or demand of many books, there aren't many books that have a fundamental backbone to confidently support prices in a possible long and unpredictable 10 years.

 

These books have true scarcity, historical value, and underlying demand. I think 10 years is a long enough period where many collectors will consider those the most important factors in achieving a conservative yet realistic long term gain.

[homerwannabee]

Hmm, I will go with what most are saying, but for a different reason

 

Action #1

AF 15

Detective #27

Captain America #1

Batman #1

 

Here is my different reason. If I could buy any 5 books, and then have to sell them 10 years later. I would get these books for the insane bragging rights that each one comes with. Even after selling them I could always say that I owned some really prized comics. So for me it would not be for resell value, it would be for the privilege of just having them for 10 years.

 

 

[kimik]

in 10 years that movie will be ancient history. Its green lantern. Nice character but the average collector's knowledge of GL probably boils down to a handful of issues. A movie alone without a serious renaissance in the books themselves I don't think is going to cut it. He's been on the fringe way too long. Last memorable GL series was what, the adams run? 40 years ago? maybe the longbow hunters, 20-25 years ago?

 

Fair point, of course I could say the same thing about Iron Man, but look what the keys on that book did. Even worse story lines, other than the drunk stories. Did anyone care about this character? Books went up and stayed up, long after the movie was history. (Out of the theaters for 18 months now...) It's all speculation, but the iron man books have sort of defied logic. These books are READILY available in all grades, (Iron Man 1 anyway...) but are still raking in a couple grand for a 9.4. Compare that with Showcase 22, that is NOT readily available and comparable in popularity. (Both characters are probably b-level in their respective universes.) I just think that there may be legs to showcase 22.

 

I don't disagree with you about the characters, or your logic, but the Iron Man run to compare to the Showcase 22 would be Tales of Suspense 39 (first issue) thru, say 49, for the first ten issues. Iron Man 1 was 1968, I believe, long after Marvel had increased their print runs.

 

I don't know the numbers of SC22 versus TOS39.

 

If we are talking % terms, then my vote goes to SA DC keys like SC 22, B&B 28, JLA 1, GL 1, or other books that have movie potential but have not had a big jump yet. Even if they plateau by year 5 or 6, these books will have a lot of room to run up % wise before then. Look at SC #22, even if it pulls back a bit the book will still see healthy gains from the pre-movie period (right now). I would keep away from Showcase #4, though, as it is overvalued now.

 

Pure dollar value terms would be the big GA or SA books like Action 1, Tec 27, AF 15, MC 1, Tec 31 where a couple of % points = decent dollar amounts.

[Bronty]

Silver age is priced out...

 

Wow, been hearing that from various people every year for at least twenty years now. Why's that all of a sudden true now but not the previous two decades people have been saying it?

 

Nobody was saying that twenty years ago James. No frickin' way. I remember collecting in 1989 quite clearly and SA was just starting its price appreciation. SA was a bargain and everyone knew it. People didn't understand that a NM copy was a much better bargain than a VF... and these things were illiquid as hell... but even so people knew they were a great deal and the prices skyrocketed for exactly that reason.

 

Twenty years later now you have all this collecting infrastructure (ebay, gpa, internet, chat forums, paypal, god knows what else) that itself makes the right books far more valuable because a) recouping funds is so easy compared to before and b) finding that anal retentive buyer who HAS to have a nm+ is now child's play where you could never have found him/her before.

 

So I understand that part a huge part of the increase in uber grades is due to the ramifications from technological advancements that we could have never foreseen back then. But to say that people were calling SA overpriced 20 years ago is just plain wrong. 10 years ago people were starting to say it for the first time, but that was because of cgc and all the aforesaid technology increasing the price (mainly of hg books). Now another 10 years later and not only are the effects of the technological changes fully priced in, but movie popularity is priced in... I would argue demographics are priced in with this being probably the last large peak of collectors hitting adulthood.... EVERYTHING is priced in. That's my point. No significant reasons, looking ahead, why things could possibly get significantly hotter in the SA market, and lots of reasons why things could get signficantly cooler.

[supapimp]

Silver age is priced out...

 

Wow, been hearing that from various people every year for at least twenty years now. Why's that all of a sudden true now but not the previous two decades people have been saying it?

 

Nobody was saying that twenty years ago James. No frickin' way. I remember collecting in 1989 quite clearly and SA was just starting its price appreciation. SA was a bargain and everyone knew it.

 

people forget that in the late 80's and early 90's, it was a recession too.

[Bronty]

that being said, I never heard anyone complain about the price of silver age in the 80s, or the price of bronze age in the 90s. They were still cheap and available for pennies on today's dollar. If you think back pimpy you'll remember talking a lot more about the BOOKS back then and a lot less about market values, in general.

[Silver Surfer]

Hmmmm? Everyone seems to be picking five and six figure books... I think I'll go with lower-end books, (relatively speaking...), that I actually have a chance to purchase and resell.

 

1. Captain America comics 74 in almost any grade - Classic example of high-demand and very short supply. I believe someone told me this was a Gerber 8, but I may be mistaken on that. Regardless, you can almost never find a copy for sale and when you do it's not cheap. Recently saw a raw 1.8 sell for 1000 bucks on ebay.

 

 

Think its always been a Gerber 7 which I believe is 50 or less and there has defintely been at least 30-40 different copies for sales over the last 5-6 years. Maybe not as rare as we they once thought but I like how you think, this is a classic for sure.

[COI]

Silver age is priced out...

 

Wow, been hearing that from various people every year for at least twenty years now. Why's that all of a sudden true now but not the previous two decades people have been saying it?

 

- The Internet

- The ability for any individual to buy and sell their own comic holdings for FMV

- CGC

- An aging demographic waxing nostalgic for SA and packing fat wallets

- The proliferation of high grade "potentializing" making high grade books available

- Movie hype / increased pop-cultural significance of comic characters

- In the last couple years, an ailing economy driving said fat wallets to find alternative places for their cash

- The fact that the surge in prices for high grade SA has outpaced income growth expontentially

 

All of these things were not factors in previous decades.

 

Ghost Town remarked in a post recently that if he had to start collecting over again, he'd probably have to focus only on the BA because there's no way he could rebuild the collection he has now at current levels. The surge in prices, particularly with non-key books, can be attributed to collectors who already have a substantial collection, paying premiums to fill in holes. The portion of the population who makes the kind of income that would allow for collecting at the high end is miniscule, and I doubt there will be enough collectors at that level 10+ years from now to absorb the many 9.4s - 9.8s out there, once the boomers begin cashing out and moving on. It's a house of cards.

[COI]

that being said, I never heard anyone complain about the price of silver age in the 80s, or the price of bronze age in the 90s. They were still cheap and available for pennies on today's dollar. If you think back pimpy you'll remember talking a lot more about the BOOKS back then and a lot less about market values, in general.

 

I bought some raw mid grade Spideys off of Ebay yesterday for a pittance. Buying raw FN to VF books, and high grade 9.0+ slabs clearly isn't the same hobby. It's comic collecting, sure, but the motives and $$$ are completely different.

 

I'd have to think that the entire hobby pre-CGC was, similarly, a completely different hobby as well, and therefore shouldn't be compared. You can really only look back to 2000 to mark any relevant changes to the high grade market as it stands today. Anything before that is completely irrelevant.

[supapimp]

people should just buy 8.5 or 9.0 for a nice still high grade collection for a fraction of the cost.

[COI]

people should just buy 8.5 or 9.0 for a nice still high grade collection for a fraction of the cost.

 

You're preaching to the choir.

 

I'm very confident that with patience, I'll eventually be able to get the 9.4-9.8 books I want at a lot less than they're going for today.

[fantastic_four]

- The Internet

- The ability for any individual to buy and sell their own comic holdings for FMV

- CGC

- An aging demographic waxing nostalgic for SA and packing fat wallets

- The proliferation of high grade "potentializing" making high grade books available

- Movie hype / increased pop-cultural significance of comic characters

- In the last couple years, an ailing economy driving said fat wallets to find alternative places for their cash

- The fact that the surge in prices for high grade SA has outpaced income growth expontentially

 

ALL of those are true for the most popular high grade titles from any age. High Grade Silver Age isn't increasing in value exponentially, it's increasing at about the same historical rate that mutual funds have for the most popular titles (6-10% per year), about as good as a CD or savings account for the less-popular stuff (1%-5%).

 

The last two years have seen some big growth, and we should expect that to soften, but I haven't seen these increases isolated to Silver Age in the slightest. It's across the board.

[oakman29]

people should just buy 8.5 or 9.0 for a nice still high grade collection for a fraction of the cost.

 

I truely believe anything in 8.5 to 9.2 is a bargain.I try to focus my collection on those parameters.High grade enough,but not uber money.Win win in my book.

[Hedge Collector]

Sometimes I wonder if the 2nd or 3rd or 4th issue of a run would see greater % appreciation than that 1st issue key.

 

We now have proof positive from all the crazy non-key high grade prices what some collectors are willing to pay just to either have top census or complete their collection.

 

It seems like collectors are sometimes willing to accept lower grade for the keys simply because they are so high priced, but would attempt to pay up for the non-keys simply because they have a chance at getting the highest grade for the lesser known books.

 

So maybe %-wise as some may have suggested, hard to find books within the middle of certain runs are sure to achieve the best return.

[COI]

ALL of those are true for the most popular high grade titles from any age. High Grade Silver Age isn't increasing in value exponentially, it's increasing at about the same historical rate that mutual funds have for the most popular titles (6-10% per year),

 

Even if that's true, and I'm not sure that it is ( I don't have any data), the supply of HG material is also going up every year, while the hobby as a whole is in decline. All it takes is a few boomers with big time collections to cash out, combined with the natual culmination of the press-resub game, and there will me more books out there than the market can absorb.

 

Have you compared census numbers from 2002-2006, to now? I haven't done it on a large scale, but just going on memory with the titles I track, the difference is staggering.

[fantastic_four]

Even if that's true, and I'm not sure that it is ( I don't have any data), the supply of HG material is also going up every year, while the hobby as a whole is in decline. All it takes is a few boomers with big time collections to cash out, combined with the natual culmination of the press-resub game, and there will me more books out there than the market can absorb.

 

Have you compared census numbers from 2002-2006, to now? I haven't done it on a large scale, but just going on memory with the titles I track, the difference is staggering.

 

All of that is still true of the market as a whole--applies the same to anything desirable and popular.

 

The only hard annual increase data I have is my own. In November 2008 I ran a report on all of my CGC books and discovered that my annual return across them all was about 9%, and everything I buy is high grade and popular (Spidey, FF, X-Men, Daredevil). The actual annual % increase on my books would be more like 7%-8% since I got a lot of books for below-market prices and rarely paid over-market prices. I pulled the "1% to 5%" number out of the air, just figuring it had to be lower. I've got all my comics data in an Access database, and I have a nifty report that shows me total and annual return statistics. I can run the report whenever, but I haven't entered market prices in since last year to refresh the report.

 

I looked at Census numbers for FF in 2005, and then again within the last few months. The total count of high grade books looks slightly higher, not dramatically so, but what is more dramatic is the top-Census books went up a lot. 9.6 and 9.8 copies doubled and tripled during that time, I'm guessing almost entirely due to TB and DS resubmitting everything they own that had a shot of going higher. I generally agree that the top end will keep going up...but not enough to cause the market to drop significantly, I wouldn't think. I expect it to mostly just kill the prices where people are paying 10x to 30x market for top-census copies where there are 5 or less on the planet.

[conditionfreak]

Which would a speculator/collector rather have, and which would someone in the business of buying and selling comic books rather have, to hold and sell in ten years time? If they had to pay for them what they command now?

 

1) ASM 1, 7.0 GPA 9,263

 

2) AF 15, 5.5 Possible GPA 6,500

 

3) FF 1, 5.5 GPA 7,169

 

4) MMC 9, 3.0 possible GPA 4,000

 

5) MPFW 1, 4.0 possible GPA 14,000

 

Total $40,932

 

or

 

1) ASM 50, 7.0 (twenty copies) total GPA average 5,560

 

2) FF 5, 2.0 (four copies) total GPA 1,240

 

3) Silver Surfer 4, 7.0 (ten copies) total GPA 1,890

 

4) Iron-Man 1, 8.5 (ten copies) total GPA 5,520

 

5) Green Lantern 76, 7.0 (twenty copies) total GPA 4,820

 

 

Total $19,030

 

Keeping in mind the caveat that you are not getting any of these books for free. You have to buy them today at current market rate. All books CGC graded and slabbed.

 

This is not what you would have pride in owning during the next ten years, but rather which you would rather have, to be sold ten years hence. If you were a speculator/collector or a store owner. ie: for investment purposes only.

 

NOTE: edited this post with addition of approximate GPA values for each group.

[fantastic_four]

I don't mind sharing my total return and annual return data from my own CGC books--it's at this URL:

 

 

http://home.comcast.net/~rudd.james/2001%20to%202008%20buys.htm

 

 

I took out the columns showing exact amounts paid and grades for privacy reasons. I determined market value to compute the returns using GPA data as of November 2008. Most of the stuff at the top I got for below-market prices (I think you'd recognize the book at the very top of that list), and most of the stuff at the bottom I either paid above-market prices for, or they were books that are in high supply that haven't increased much. Like I said, I did a weighted average and found the annual return for all of those to be around 9%. I don't plan to update this report this year because I really don't trust that this year's market prices are realistic enough to be useful. Those 1 or 2 guys paying any price to complete their runs are throwing the market values for the stuff I buy out of whack.

[oakman29]

To be honest I think this list would be the better one

1) ASM 50, 7.0 (twenty copies)

 

2) FF 5, 2.0 (four copies)

 

3) Silver Surfer 4, 7.0 (ten copies)

 

4) Iron-Man 1, 8.5 (ten copies)

 

5) Green Lantern 76, 7.0 (twenty copies)