Comic Book Movie Hype -real demand or manipulation?

[rodan57]

I sometimes wonder as to the reality of the "effect" an upcoming movie has on the "value" of a comic book.

 

Prices go up before a movie in anticipation of a hit that will drive them even highter.

 

So where does the demand come from? Is it just existing comic book collectors whose interest has been triggered by the movie? Are there really any new collectors created who buy "movie" books?

 

Have we convinced ourselves that a movie makes for a better comic?

 

 

 

[paperheart]

start a poll- one vote for manipulation

[Buck Biggins]

start a poll- one vote for manipulation

 

I'll second and add another for manipulation.

[Buck Biggins]

Are there really any new collectors created who buy "movie" books?

 

Have we convinced ourselves that a movie makes for a better comic?

 

 

 

I doubt demand is being created by new collectors.

 

 

[Flemmings]

Are there really any new collectors created who buy "movie" books?

 

Have we convinced ourselves that a movie makes for a better comic?

 

 

 

I doubt demand is being created by new collectors.

 

 

I agree.

[rodan57]

I feel the same way. Yet we, as collectors, we seen to fuel our own interests whether through fear ( will I be able to afford that book now?) or through greed (if I can buy cheap now, I'm sure someone will pay me a pretty penny later). And the catalyst is a movie -- external. What else works this way -- the death of an artist or writer? I can't recall such a situation.

[VintageComics]

I have to disagree.

 

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's just people getting caught up in a frenzy and buying something before it sells out.

 

There is always a run up and then a plateau but you can't really nail a starting point to prove manipulation. The run up is almost always gradual with no real start or finish to be able to identify the manipulation.

 

I get caught up in the excitement all the time....hear about or pick up a title or issue that you had either forgotten about or never read and then just get hot for it.

 

It's what got me back into comics in 2002/2003 (Daredevil movie).

 

It's just normal human dynamics at work. I find it hard to believe there is any manipulation other than just a natural reaction for everyone to want a piece of it.

[RikkiB]

More hype than anything else IMO. Notice the flurry of activity in the Showcase #22 thread lately? X-Men Origins:Wolverine coming out and there was a run of New Mutants #98 everywhere, including here on the board. It cooled down after the movie. Iron Man movie was announced, and there was a flurry of activity of TOS #39. Spider-Man 3 movie coming out and ASM #300 was a hot topic. That is not to say these books don't have value. I think there are new "investors" who buy a comic based on an anticipated movie, but not "new collectors" necessarily. The prevailing wisdom has been buy when a movie is announced, sell just before the movie comes out when the hype machine is at its peak then buy back later at a cheaper price when the hype has subsided.

[Flemmings]

Yes a death of a creator works the same way. I seen Turner books everywhere after his death.

[VintageComics]

Jut go back to 1988 when Tim Burton's Batman was released. There was almost no internet activity and yet Batman books skyrocketed that summer and well into the following year. In fact Detective #27 overtook and dethroned Marvel Comics #1 for the first time in the history of the OSPG IIRC. The thing is that the Bat books were already selling at a frenzied pace well before OSPG raised their prices...it would be impossible to manipulate something so "grass roots" on such a grand scale.

 

It's just public awareness and "fear off loss" creating an increase in sales.

[ChasingKingKirby]

Agree somewhat, especially in the modern arena. I suppose everybody remembers what happened with ASM300, book shot up before Spidey 3 to the point a 9.8 was over a 1000 bucks and 9.6s were at 450. Now that the movie is long over, 9.8s are hovering at 700 and 9.6s are at 200. Obviously, false inflation. But in the case of IM1, prices shot up, but they stayed up, Iron Man 1 and TOS 39 are still up around 30% from 07. So it's hard to just write off the long-term effects of movies. SC22 is a current example, this book is scarce in high grade with not a ton of copies slabbed. (Less than 200.) Add to that, currently good story writing, hyped movie, under-valuation for years and lack of supply, I suspect we'll see HUGE price spikes. Will they last? Who knows... In any case, I think very little of it has to do with new collectors.

[RikkiB]

I What else works this way -- the death of an artist or writer? I can't recall such a situation.

 

Not comic related, but immediately after his death there was a spike in sales of Michael Jackson's music.

[october]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

[Buck Biggins]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

[october]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

 

That's one easy example. I am sure there are many others, but truly effective manipulation requires that the participants in the market not know that they are being manipulated. It can be done with stocks, comics would be a walk in the park for some people.

 

Hell, look at the high grade Spidey market. Does anyone really think that a couple of key guys couldn't manipulate it by either buying or selling at certain points, at certain prices? It naive to think that there isn't some type of finagling going on with top-tier books.

[VintageComics]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

I know how manipulation happens. The comics we are talking about though are plentiful. There is no short supply. New Mutants, Wolverine 1, ASM 300...heck even Batman #1 is a relatively "common" book.

 

So in order to make manipulation happen the way you describe it there needs to be a shortage of product. Well there isn't.

 

Manipulation implies there is some sort of intervention and that is difficult to do on a grand scale with near infinite supply. I fail to see how there could be some sort of a united agreement among movers and shakers to manipulate prices of movie books if the market is so vast, supply is pretty much infinite for many of these books and especially because many of the biggest movers and shakers don't get along with each other any ways. They won't discuss one book amongst each other let alone having detailed discussions about manipulating the course of a given title.

 

Think about it...the biggest movie hype machine is eBay...I sold 5 copies of ASM #300 in 9.8 a couple of years ago and people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

[VintageComics]

Hell, look at the high grade Spidey market. Does anyone really think that a couple of key guys couldn't manipulate it by either buying or selling at certain points, at certain prices? It naive to think that there isn't some type of finagling going on with top-tier books.

 

That's a little different. We're not talking about 6 figure books. Nobody sees a movie and goes to spend a 1/4 MIL on a comic.

 

Movie hype is all about connection, emotion, fear of loss and disposeable income for the middle class.

[VintageComics]

Just in the interests of full disclosure I only own one "movie hype" book and I plan on keeping it a while so I have no horse in this race.

 

(thumbs u

[october]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

I know how manipulation happens. The comics we are talking about though are plentiful. There is no short supply. New Mutants, Wolverine, ASM...heck even Batman #1 is a relatively "common" book.

 

So in order to make manipulation happen the way you describe it there needs to be a shortage of product. Well there isn't.

 

Manipulation implies there is some sort of intervention and that is difficult to do on a grand scale with near infinite supply. I fail to see how there could be some sort of a united agreement among movers and shakers to manipulate prices of movie books if the market is so vast, supply is pretty much infinite for many of these books and especially because many of the biggest movers and shakers don't get along with each other any ways. They won't discuss one book amongst each other let alone having detailed discussions about manipulating the course of a given title.

 

Think about it...the biggest movie hype machine is eBay...I sold 5 copies of ASM #300 in 9.8 a couple of years ago and people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

If you say so. A book like Showcase 22 isn't nearly plentiful enough to preclude market manipulation, even on a large scale. Just because people are not actively manipulating the market in the case of many "movie" books doesn't mean it can't happen. We both witnessed it on a small scale in Chicago. Rick went around buying up any reasonably price Showcase 22 out there. What happens when people get wind of this? They jack up their prices. That's market manipulation, intentional or not. Get five people together to buy or run up prices on a book like Showcase 22 and you can easily have an effect on the market.

 

Seriously, people do this with billions of dollars of commodities and futures, but you think that comics are too complicated? Come on now.

[Subliminal]

New collectors see the hype not the manipulation and some are drawn into the hobby.

They may not buy an expensive hyped up key book right away but I'm sure there alot who start small , dream big and eventually grab a hot book if they are serious in their interest in collecting.