Comic Book Movie Hype -real demand or manipulation?

[Scrooge]

people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

Right. And how would people determine what they want to bid? Hype up a reported sale between two high profile collectors at nose-bleed price and broadcast it to the world, all of a sudden what people want to bid has increased since they anchor their pricing relative to the focus point the sale has become. Now, that reported sale can be quite fictitious since it's reported as being all cash when a lot of trade went into it (FF # 1 several years ago) or an abnormal sale for a book (Action # 1 recently when someone paid too much for one book and again when a Metro sale was picked up by mainstream media [not that Action 1 needs to be hyped up]) or a sale that didn't even happen ($1M AA 16), ... More than one way a market can be influenced.

[VintageComics]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

I know how manipulation happens. The comics we are talking about though are plentiful. There is no short supply. New Mutants, Wolverine, ASM...heck even Batman #1 is a relatively "common" book.

 

So in order to make manipulation happen the way you describe it there needs to be a shortage of product. Well there isn't.

 

Manipulation implies there is some sort of intervention and that is difficult to do on a grand scale with near infinite supply. I fail to see how there could be some sort of a united agreement among movers and shakers to manipulate prices of movie books if the market is so vast, supply is pretty much infinite for many of these books and especially because many of the biggest movers and shakers don't get along with each other any ways. They won't discuss one book amongst each other let alone having detailed discussions about manipulating the course of a given title.

 

Think about it...the biggest movie hype machine is eBay...I sold 5 copies of ASM #300 in 9.8 a couple of years ago and people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

If you say so. A book like Showcase 22 isn't nearly plentiful enough to preclude market manipulation, even on a large scale. Just because people are not actively manipulating the market in the case of many "movie" books doesn't mean it can't happen. We both witnessed it on a small scale in Chicago. Rick went around buying up any reasonably price Showcase 22 out there. What happens when people get wind of this? They jack up their prices. That's market manipulation, intentional or not. Get five people together to buy or run up prices on a book like Showcase 22 and you can easily have an effect on the market.

 

Seriously, people do this with billions of dollars of commodities and futures, but you think that comics are too complicated? Come on now.

 

Again, I agree with you that i can and does happen. I do think that Showcase #22 is a bad example as that book is and always has been a rare book in grade...so that book is an exception to the rule of movie books.

 

I've spoken to guys who have been collecting for decades and have never been able to find nice copy of that book.

 

I went into a booth in Chicago just after you. You went into the booth just after Harley. Harley was there first. I picked up two copies of Showcase #22 there after you and Harley passed on them.

 

Harley is a mover and shaker if I ever saw one.

 

The book was already hot so nobody can say they "didn't know".

 

Books like Avengers #4, Showcase #22 and TOS #39 are really, really big keys and the fact that they have been either undervalued or overlooked just used the movies to catipult them into a better position.

 

Books like New Mutants #88 (or whatever it is) rise and fall with the movies simply because of panic by people who can relate or want a piece of the action.

 

Again, I can see it happening on big books but I have a hard time believing there was some sort of conspiracy making ASM #300 a $1500 book. People just freely bid it up there in a panic.

 

Go back to the Batman craze in 1988. I was 18. It was insane. There was no collective effort to manipulate people because that sort of communication of information was impossible in 1988. It was just people panicking and throwing money at books and I was just as guilty of it as the next guy.

[G.A.tor]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

I know how manipulation happens. The comics we are talking about though are plentiful. There is no short supply. New Mutants, Wolverine, ASM...heck even Batman #1 is a relatively "common" book.

 

So in order to make manipulation happen the way you describe it there needs to be a shortage of product. Well there isn't.

 

Manipulation implies there is some sort of intervention and that is difficult to do on a grand scale with near infinite supply. I fail to see how there could be some sort of a united agreement among movers and shakers to manipulate prices of movie books if the market is so vast, supply is pretty much infinite for many of these books and especially because many of the biggest movers and shakers don't get along with each other any ways. They won't discuss one book amongst each other let alone having detailed discussions about manipulating the course of a given title.

 

Think about it...the biggest movie hype machine is eBay...I sold 5 copies of ASM #300 in 9.8 a couple of years ago and people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

If you say so. A book like Showcase 22 isn't nearly plentiful enough to preclude market manipulation, even on a large scale. Just because people are not actively manipulating the market in the case of many "movie" books doesn't mean it can't happen. We both witnessed it on a small scale in Chicago. Rick went around buying up any reasonably price Showcase 22 out there. What happens when people get wind of this? They jack up their prices. That's market manipulation, intentional or not. Get five people together to buy or run up prices on a book like Showcase 22 and you can easily have an effect on the market.

 

Seriously, people do this with billions of dollars of commodities and futures, but you think that comics are too complicated? Come on now.

 

I can see this...about 6 months ago, I started buying SC 22's....pure "speculation" on my part that this book was undervalued, and yet, still in relatively short supply...

 

I managed to accumulate about 7-8 nice copies... and Brian (foolkiller) buys 4-5 copies and so on...a few of us did affect the market as all of a sudden, the 25 regularly listed comics at price "X" are no longer in the market... that created a perceived supply issue, that can affect demand (lost opportunity, as some mentioned)....as least in this little microcosm we did have a BIG impact (IMO)...

 

now, did we manipulate it? not the word I would use, but we certainly applied basic economics of supply and demand to affect price...

 

folks told me I was "crazy" for asking $1250 for a cgc 5.0...I kept hearing "but gpa is $600" yada yada... I bet I could get $2000+ for the 5.0's only a month later after I sold them for $1250... why? because now there is "fear" that folks that do want an issue, waited to long, so the old "better grab now" mentality sets in...

 

I told several folks on this board, that I thought 4.0's would be a $1500+ book in a few months (this when I was selling them for $1000) ...did I affect perception? maybe...

can one person affect an entire market? no...but a small impact, I would say

[VintageComics]

people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

Right. And how would people determine what they want to bid? Hype up a reported sale between two high profile collectors at nose-bleed price and broadcast it to the world, all of a sudden what people want to bid has increased since they anchor their pricing relative to the focus point the sale has become. Now, that reported sale can be quite fictitious since it's reported as being all cash when a lot of trade went into it (FF # 1 several years ago) or an abnormal sale for a book (Action # 1 recently when someone paid too much for one book and again when a Metro sale was picked up by mainstream media [not that Action 1 needs to be hyped up]) or a sale that didn't even happen ($1M AA 16), ... More than one way a market can be influenced.

 

Agreed, and again I have no horse in this race as I'm almost completely out of high grade SA and BA books in my personal collection and only own one movie hype book, but we're talking about the movie hype books that are traded in large numbers...or so I thought we were...and not the big books.

 

I fail to see the connection between a $500,000 FF #1 trade and ASM #300 rising from $700 to $1500 and then back down to $700 again.

 

Anyhow, I'm just discussing for the sake of discussion.

 

I'd love to hear what others think.

 

[paperheart]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

A book like Showcase 22 isn't nearly plentiful enough to preclude market manipulation, even on a large scale. Just because people are not actively manipulating the market in the case of many "movie" books doesn't mean it can't happen. We both witnessed it on a small scale in Chicago. Rick went around buying up any reasonably price Showcase 22 out there. What happens when people get wind of this? They jack up their prices. That's market manipulation, intentional or not. Get five people together to buy or run up prices on a book like Showcase 22 and you can easily have an effect on the market.

 

Seriously, people do this with billions of dollars of commodities and futures, but you think that comics are too complicated? Come on now.

 

Case closed as far as i'm concerned.

[october]

 

Again, I agree with you that i can and does happen. I do think that Showcase #22 is a bad example as that book is and always has been a rare book in grade...so that book is an exception to the rule of movie books.

 

I've spoken to guys who have been collecting for decades and have never been able to find nice copy of that book.

 

I went into a booth in Chicago just after you. You went into the booth just after Harley. Harley was there first. I picked up two copies of Showcase #22 there after you and Harley passed on them.

 

Harley is a mover and shaker if I ever saw one.

 

The book was already hot so nobody can say they "didn't know".

 

Books like Avengers #4, Showcase #22 and TOS #39 are really, really big keys and the fact that they have been either undervalued or overlooked just used the movies to catipult them into a better position.

 

Books like New Mutants #88 (or whatever it is) rise and fall with the movies simply because of panic by people who can relate or want a piece of the action.

 

Again, I can see it happening on big books but I have a hard time believing there was some sort of conspiracy making ASM #300 a $1500 book. People just freely bid it up there in a panic.

 

Go back to the Batman craze in 1988. I was 18. It was insane. There was no collective effort to manipulate people because that sort of communication of information was impossible in 1988. It was just people panicking and throwing money at books and I was just as guilty of it as the next guy.

 

You keep saying that it isn't happening. Your original question was "Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?" I did that. It might not be happening now and it might not have happened in the past, but it CAN happen. It's not that hard to do.

 

[october]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

A book like Showcase 22 isn't nearly plentiful enough to preclude market manipulation, even on a large scale. Just because people are not actively manipulating the market in the case of many "movie" books doesn't mean it can't happen. We both witnessed it on a small scale in Chicago. Rick went around buying up any reasonably price Showcase 22 out there. What happens when people get wind of this? They jack up their prices. That's market manipulation, intentional or not. Get five people together to buy or run up prices on a book like Showcase 22 and you can easily have an effect on the market.

 

Seriously, people do this with billions of dollars of commodities and futures, but you think that comics are too complicated? Come on now.

 

Case closed as far as i'm concerned.

 

It literally took me one minute to come up with this small time manipulation scheme. You know what? It would probably work too. Easy to do on a micro scale, harder, but still possible, to do on a macro scale.

 

Take any reasonably scarce book or any reasonably scarce book in-grade that has some heat associated with it. Maybe a movie is coming out, maybe a couple of guys have been vocal about how cool it is. Say I have two copies of XXX in the same condition, which I value at $1000 each. I give one to someone else (a known seller) who puts it on the board, hypes the hell out of it and "sells" it within minutes to a nonexistent PM buyer for $2000. This sets the new market price, assuming a similar condition book hasn't changed hands in awhile. Then I list the other one at a price of $1500, an incredible "bargain" given the other sale. It gets snapped up quickly, and I just made $500 more than I would have. Obviously this won't work for a book like ASM 300 in 9.4, but any semi-hot book that is reasonably tough to find, or tough in-grade, would work.

[Scrooge]

people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

I fail to see the connection between a $500,000 FF #1 trade and ASM #300 rising from $700 to $1500 and then back down to $700 again.

 

The connection is that you state "it's psychological" to defend that the market can hardly be manipulated. I state that you've got the correct terminology but the wrong interpretation. Yes, it's psychological b/c people's idea of pricing are influenced by the reported sale (be it a higher profile book or a movie hype book, the discussion is valid for both scenarios) and that a few well reported transactions can move the market. It doesn't take many people to move the comics market considering how illiquid it can be and how small it is so that a few voices can carry a loud message. Take October's example of a fictitious PM sale as the perfect example on how to falsely set a new price level on a book.

 

 

[VintageComics]

You keep saying that it isn't happening. Your original question was "Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?" I did that. It might not be happening now and it might not have happened in the past, but it CAN happen. It's not that hard to do.

 

Andy, we are discussing movie book price manipulation...or at least that's what I was discussing as per the title.

 

You went into a discussion on Fantastic #3 which did not belong here at all.

 

Manipulation by definition implies someone actively controlling the price...to control price or to move the price in an unfair manner.

 

I'm simply stating that for the majority of movie hype books I don't believe it to be true because the supply is too great, from too many sources to be able to be controlled.

 

I'm not stating that manipulation can not happen on big books. I'm sure it can happen and does in many ways.

 

My point was can someone show me how the movie hype books have been manipulated or even better come up with examples of manipulation with these books?

 

ASM #300

NM #88

Next Men #21

 

etc, etc.

 

[MisterX]

I kind of thought that, for a while anyway, a movie-hyped book became a blue-chip book.

[october]

You keep saying that it isn't happening. Your original question was "Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?" I did that. It might not be happening now and it might not have happened in the past, but it CAN happen. It's not that hard to do.

 

Andy, we are discussing movie book price manipulation...or at least that's what I was discussing as per the title.

 

You went into a discussion on Fantastic #3 which did not belong here at all.

 

Manipulation by definition implies someone actively controlling the price...to control price or to move the price in an unfair manner.

 

I'm simply stating that for the majority of movie hype books I don't believe it to be true because the supply is too great, from too many sources to be able to be controlled.

 

I'm not stating that manipulation can not happen on big books. I'm sure it can happen and does in many ways.

 

My point was can someone show me how the movie hype books have been manipulated or even better come up with examples of manipulation with these books?

 

ASM #300

NM #88

Next Men #21

 

etc, etc.

 

I won't bother to continue this discussion with you, because you obviously are not reading my posts.

 

One final time. I am aware that we are talking about movie books. I am aware that it's unlikely they have been manipulated up to this point. You asked for someone to explain how they MIGHT be influenced, because you clearly think it's impossible. One last time, here is how it MIGHT be done and scale is NOT relevant. People have done this with billions in securities and commodities, a couple thousand comics would be a walk in the park.

 

1. A cartel of buyers bidding up or buying up any copy that comes to market in order to create artificial demand that, in-turn, drives up the price.

 

2. Churn the books by buying and selling at the same price, which creates the illusion of a vibrant market for the books and runs up the price.

 

3. Simple hype. Create rumors about scarcity or tell everyone you know about how cool it is and how many people you know desire a copy. Tell enough people, influence enough buyers, and your book increases in value.

 

 

[Aman619]

every case is different. The Showcase 22 heat index was fueled by the reality of the movie, plain and simple. The book is still the same cool scarce mega SA key, but the prospect of GL becoming the next Iron Man with worldwide box office records has always juiced the collectors frenzy.When the WW movie gets a cast and a production start and release date, 105 will skyrocket. Otherwise, lots of DC keys will sit stagnant on dealer walls for many more years to come. without any good reason the pick them up and expect any kind of quick return on the "investment". You dont have to be a "speculator" to like picking a winner.

 

The impetus to buy now is the hype and expectation of the train leaving the station. We all respond to that impulse. I agree with r1970.

[Aman619]

You keep saying that it isn't happening. Your original question was "Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?" I did that. It might not be happening now and it might not have happened in the past, but it CAN happen. It's not that hard to do.

 

Andy, we are discussing movie book price manipulation...or at least that's what I was discussing as per the title.

 

You went into a discussion on Fantastic #3 which did not belong here at all.

 

Manipulation by definition implies someone actively controlling the price...to control price or to move the price in an unfair manner.

 

I'm simply stating that for the majority of movie hype books I don't believe it to be true because the supply is too great, from too many sources to be able to be controlled.

 

I'm not stating that manipulation can not happen on big books. I'm sure it can happen and does in many ways.

 

My point was can someone show me how the movie hype books have been manipulated or even better come up with examples of manipulation with these books?

 

ASM #300

NM #88

Next Men #21

 

etc, etc.

 

I won't bother to continue this discussion with you, because you obviously are not reading my posts.

 

One final time. I am aware that we are talking about movie books. I am aware that it's unlikely they have been manipulated up to this point. You asked for someone to explain how they MIGHT be influenced, because you clearly think it's impossible. One last time, here is how it MIGHT be done and scale is NOT relevant. People have done this with billions in securities and commodities, a couple thousand comics would be a walk in the park.

 

1. A cartel of buyers bidding up or buying up any copy that comes to market in order to create artificial demand that, in-turn, drives up the price.

 

2. Churn the books by buying and selling at the same price, which creates the illusion of a vibrant market for the books and runs up the price.

 

3. Simple hype. Create rumors about scarcity or tell everyone you know about how cool it is and how many people you know desire a copy. Tell enough people, influence enough buyers, and your book increases in value.

 

 

That might happen, sure. It might. Think anyone has tried it out on a large scale as you suggest?

[VintageComics]

people just bid what they wanted to bid.

 

It's purely psychological.

 

I fail to see the connection between a $500,000 FF #1 trade and ASM #300 rising from $700 to $1500 and then back down to $700 again.

 

The connection is that you state "it's psychological" to defend that the market can hardly be manipulated. I state that you've got the correct terminology but the wrong interpretation. Yes, it's psychological b/c people's idea of pricing are influenced by the reported sale (be it a higher profile book or a movie hype book, the discussion is valid for both scenarios) and that a few well reported transactions can move the market. It doesn't take many people to move the comics market considering how illiquid it can be and how small it is so that a few voices can carry a loud message. Take October's example of a fictitious PM sale as the perfect example on how to falsely set a new price level on a book.

 

 

Well, all non essential purchases are psychological right?

 

I don't think I intended to defend that the comic market can hardly be manipulated, rather that the scope of movie books are so vast that I find it hard to believe that a single board transaction (or two) can affect the rest of the world in their buying habits.

 

Most buyers will check with closed eBay sales or GPA or something similar so these private sales may not even make it into the public realm.

 

 

[october]

You keep saying that it isn't happening. Your original question was "Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?" I did that. It might not be happening now and it might not have happened in the past, but it CAN happen. It's not that hard to do.

 

Andy, we are discussing movie book price manipulation...or at least that's what I was discussing as per the title.

 

You went into a discussion on Fantastic #3 which did not belong here at all.

 

Manipulation by definition implies someone actively controlling the price...to control price or to move the price in an unfair manner.

 

I'm simply stating that for the majority of movie hype books I don't believe it to be true because the supply is too great, from too many sources to be able to be controlled.

 

I'm not stating that manipulation can not happen on big books. I'm sure it can happen and does in many ways.

 

My point was can someone show me how the movie hype books have been manipulated or even better come up with examples of manipulation with these books?

 

ASM #300

NM #88

Next Men #21

 

etc, etc.

 

I won't bother to continue this discussion with you, because you obviously are not reading my posts.

 

One final time. I am aware that we are talking about movie books. I am aware that it's unlikely they have been manipulated up to this point. You asked for someone to explain how they MIGHT be influenced, because you clearly think it's impossible. One last time, here is how it MIGHT be done and scale is NOT relevant. People have done this with billions in securities and commodities, a couple thousand comics would be a walk in the park.

 

1. A cartel of buyers bidding up or buying up any copy that comes to market in order to create artificial demand that, in-turn, drives up the price.

 

2. Churn the books by buying and selling at the same price, which creates the illusion of a vibrant market for the books and runs up the price.

 

3. Simple hype. Create rumors about scarcity or tell everyone you know about how cool it is and how many people you know desire a copy. Tell enough people, influence enough buyers, and your book increases in value.

 

 

That might happen, sure. It might. Think anyone has tried it out on a large scale as you suggest?

 

In comics? Probably not on a massive scale. On a small to medium size scale? Without a doubt. I can think of half a dozen local or regional examples off the top of my head.

[Aman619]

Conan 3?

[VintageComics]

Can you guys explain to me how these prices can be manipulated?

 

It's really not that hard to figure out. Constant hype from a powerful voice in the hobby, targeting a specific issue or issues that the person has a financial stake in. Here's an example: do you think Fantastic 3 would command such a massive premium over other Lou Fine issues if Metro hadn't made it known that they were hoarding copies and absolutely would NOT sell them for any price? You get a few movers and shakers doing that and all of a sudden you have a big uptick in value, especially when supplies are limited, as is the case with Fantastic 3.

 

I'm reading your posts.

 

This post had nothing to do with Movie Hype books.

 

What I should have written was

 

Can you guys explain to me how these movie hype prices can be manipulated?

 

...but I didn't because I figured since I was posting in a movie hype thread it was a given.

 

[VintageComics]

 

The impetus to buy now is the hype and expectation of the train leaving the station. We all respond to that impulse. I agree with r1970.

 

I'm shocked.

 

[VintageComics]

In comics? Probably not on a massive scale . On a small to medium size scale? Without a doubt. I can think of half a dozen local or regional examples off the top of my head.

 

Thank you.

 

(thumbs u

[Aman619]

oh, then I take it all back!