Overstreet vs. ComicPriceGuide.com

[codfish]

IMO no guide can be accurate. They can serve to introduce value of what you want to collect but that is about it. From there patience and experience watching the market is the only thing that will give you what you will have to pay or what your books are worth.

[RockMyAmadeus]

No one liked my Cap Freak homage, huh..?

 

This one?

 

Try and get $58 for a VF Rip Hunter #15, just try.

 

Of course.

[RockMyAmadeus]

IMO no guide can be accurate. They can serve to introduce value of what you want to collect but that is about it. From there patience and experience watching the market is the only thing that will give you what you will have to pay or what your books are worth.

 

That depends entirely what you mean by "accurate".

 

If you mean every single price is what every single copy sells for in every single grade, all the time...

 

Then, no, it's not accurate, and never can be.

 

But...here, let's give a good example.

 

Wolverine #1 Limited

 

CGC 9.2

 

 

There have been 27 sales of this book since Jan 1, 2009. In the past 12 months, there have been 36 sales of this book in this grade.

 

While individual prices have been all over the map, when you take the 12 month AVERAGE, you discover that, lo and behold, it's about $40. When you look at the average for the entire year of 2008, you find another 36 sales, averaging about...$40!

 

36 sales in any given 12 months is more than enough to discover a reliable average, even if individual prices are not so average.

 

The market has CLEARLY spoken...a CGC 9.2 Wolvie #1 Ltd is worth about $40.

 

But what does the OPG say a RAW "9.2" is worth? $70!

 

CPG has 9.2 listed at $40, so they're closer, but that's, again, for a raw copy...or about double what it SHOULD be listed for.

 

Now, obviously, many, many books don't have enough sales data to make an average. But that's where Price Guide editors and compilers come in....that's why we PAY them $40 for these fancy books each year. They are supposed to make educated guesses, based on whatever sales data they have access to.

 

Why, then, does OPG insist on pricing things so badly?

 

Because they DON'T GIVE A DAMN.

 

Enough people will continue to buy the book, and since the data is already crunched and databased, all that needs to be done each year is a little tweaking.

 

To change the OPG to reflect what actually exists in the market would not only require a gargantuan amount of work, but it would make a lot of people verrrrry, VERY angry....and they simply can't be bothered to deal with that.

 

Oh well.

[RockMyAmadeus]

So what should raw buyers use as a guide? Personally, I go to CGP and Atomic Avenue to see what sellers are getting for a certain issue. I recently had a craigslist seller wanting to charge just over guide for G. I quoted guide prices and told them I will only be willing to pay half for them in that condition. He told me I was a HG collector and had some better issues for me

 

The OPG.

 

But what you do is take OPG and automatically cut it in half.

 

For common books, from the Silver Age on up, cut another third off that.

 

Then you'll be pretty close on most books. There are exceptions, but the exceptions are much easier to deal with then.

 

(thumbs u

[Hedge Collector]

I think basically the example you gave of Wolverine #1 9.2 is one of liquidity. It changes hands so often, you can basically get a market price every month for that book.

 

But what about the books that change hands every few years if at all? How do we value those?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Did you read the whole post?

[RockMyAmadeus]

Now, obviously, many, many books don't have enough sales data to make an average. But that's where Price Guide editors and compilers come in....that's why we PAY them $40 for these fancy books each year. They are supposed to make educated guesses, based on whatever sales data they have access to.

[Hedge Collector]

Did you read the whole post?

[Lebowski]

The rarest, and one of the more expensive, book in my collection is only worth about 3 points on the registry.

 

Your 9.9 Youngblood #1?

 

 

If ONLY I had one of those!

 

Nope. My Maxx black ashcan.

[the blob]

Or $125 for a NM- Spidey #300.

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well, a couple of years ago i would not be surprised if you could have gotten that for a good looking raw copy given that I got $85 for a VF- copy.

 

the $60 price for a NM- New Gods #2 includes Kirby's signature and a DNA sample for verification

 

Since they changed the lowest grade to NM-, I've always operated under the assumption that it was the top price for any raw book (with "rare" exceptions) considering that most of the NM- prices were the NM prices the year before they made the change and I doubt those raw prices went "up" all that much.

[codfish]

IMO no guide can be accurate. They can serve to introduce value of what you want to collect but that is about it. From there patience and experience watching the market is the only thing that will give you what you will have to pay or what your books are worth.

 

That depends entirely what you mean by "accurate".

 

If you mean every single price is what every single copy sells for in every single grade, all the time...

 

Then, no, it's not accurate, and never can be.

 

But...here, let's give a good example.

 

Wolverine #1 Limited

 

CGC 9.2

 

 

There have been 27 sales of this book since Jan 1, 2009. In the past 12 months, there have been 36 sales of this book in this grade.

 

While individual prices have been all over the map, when you take the 12 month AVERAGE, you discover that, lo and behold, it's about $40. When you look at the average for the entire year of 2008, you find another 36 sales, averaging about...$40!

 

36 sales in any given 12 months is more than enough to discover a reliable average, even if individual prices are not so average.

 

The market has CLEARLY spoken...a CGC 9.2 Wolvie #1 Ltd is worth about $40.

 

But what does the OPG say a RAW "9.2" is worth? $70!

 

CPG has 9.2 listed at $40, so they're closer, but that's, again, for a raw copy...or about double what it SHOULD be listed for.

 

Now, obviously, many, many books don't have enough sales data to make an average. But that's where Price Guide editors and compilers come in....that's why we PAY them $40 for these fancy books each year. They are supposed to make educated guesses, based on whatever sales data they have access to.

 

Why, then, does OPG insist on pricing things so badly?

 

Because they DON'T GIVE A DAMN.

 

Enough people will continue to buy the book, and since the data is already crunched and databased, all that needs to be done each year is a little tweaking.

 

To change the OPG to reflect what actually exists in the market would not only require a gargantuan amount of work, but it would make a lot of people verrrrry, VERY angry....and they simply can't be bothered to deal with that.

 

Oh well.

 

I assume you are talking GPA data here. GPAnalysis is not a "guide" though. It tracks sales, etc but it is not professing to be a guide and it only represents a small part of the market and of course it is not tracking all CGC sales so even it must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Guides like OSPG or CPG cannot possibly track all sales of all books everywhere and worse yet they have to "freeze" their prices at certain times which can, of course, miss trends. Trends which may run their course by the time they adjust prices up or down. With CPG at least the common collector can input on pricing data and if a change is warranted they will change the price. I am sure is once the price is set people will complain it is "frozen".

 

I am also amused that people only complain when their books are undervalued and dismiss the values when they trend down.

 

Anyway, I don't live and breath by guide values because they are guides not values. Nothing beats being familiar with your part of market. If you know it then guides are pretty unnecessary. I only use guide to introduce me to the ball park of new interest areas of collecting. Once I become familiar with the market I pretty much never look at them again.

[the blob]

But what you do is take OPG and automatically cut it in half.

 

For common books, from the Silver Age on up, cut another third off that.

-----------------------------------------------

 

Thousands and thousands of non-uncommon Silver age and later books sell for better than half guide week after week. Just because you can randomly throw out bids and get some for less doesn't really mean the FMV of books in your collection is worth what the lowest possible price out there is. I rarely, if ever, sell anything for less than half guide on ebay. Heck, I just sold some super common midgrade BA book for full guide! Am I doing huge volume? No, admittedly, but I used to do more volume ($500-$1000 in sales a month) and followed pretty much the same path. Sure, if I started every auction at 99 cents I probably would get hammered.

 

Can you get these books for half guide and less if you search around and throw out lots of lowball bids? Yes.

 

Can you sell these books for half guide or more if you don't start your auctions too low and/or have some patience? Yes.

 

Not every book, I admit. Putting aside moderns and most coppers....Some of the prices for early 70's DCs in let's say 8.0 - 9.2 are just plain wacky. Omac 1 is a great book, sure, and I own a few copies, but $40 for a 9.0 copy and $29 for a VF copy? (as of my price guide from a few years ago), but Avengers in the 30s - 50s are generally $10-$12 in VG (at least in my old OPG I have handy), are common as dirt and, as far as I can tell, often sell for about guide once you factor in a reasonable shipping fee. FFs are in the same boat I think, Spideys and X-Men maybe better. Remember, OPG isn't meant to factor in a hypothetical shipping fee, so on books like these in this price range that $3-$5 shipping charge has to come directly out of what you can hope to sell the book for.

[Boozad]

I assume you are talking GPA data here. GPAnalysis is not a "guide" though. It tracks sales

 

Isn't a guide based on past sales though, no matter how loosely?

 

Personally I'd take GPA over CPG or OSPG anyday as it's giving you 'real' information. I know it's slabs versus raw, but at least you can take a look at GPA and actually see if a trend in a book has fallen, and not been ignored by people who want to try and hold value in their books that isn't there.

[Kite_Fun_Books]

I have been looking for 1965 Pixie Dixie & Mr. Jinks Kite Fun Book since 1987.

I don't think it exist.

 

But it is good to see the OSPG continues to adjust the price.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

But what you do is take OPG and automatically cut it in half.

 

For common books, from the Silver Age on up, cut another third off that.

-----------------------------------------------

 

Thousands and thousands of non-uncommon Silver age and later books sell for better than half guide week after week. Just because you can randomly throw out bids and get some for less doesn't really mean the FMV of books in your collection is worth what the lowest possible price out there is. I rarely, if ever, sell anything for less than half guide on ebay. Heck, I just sold some super common midgrade BA book for full guide! Am I doing huge volume? No, admittedly, but I used to do more volume ($500-$1000 in sales a month) and followed pretty much the same path. Sure, if I started every auction at 99 cents I probably would get hammered.

 

Um.

 

Who said anything about "the lowest possible price" equalling FMV?

 

Because I certainly didn't. I was talking about averages. He was simply asking for an opinion on how to handle price guides, and I gave it. If you disagree, that's fine, but that doesn't make me incorrect.

 

I have bid on hundreds of thousands of books in the last 12 years. Most of them I didn't win (obviously). A very, very large chunk of them I lost by "one bid." You wanna know what my max bid practice is?

 

25-35% of OPG in the grade given.

 

Are there raw books that sell for more than half guide?

 

OF COURSE!

 

Did I say that "the lowest possible price" is "FMV"?

 

NO!

 

But I would lay down good money that the vast, vast, vast majority of everything except RARE Golden Age (and Batman #44 ain't it), and uber high grade Silver and Bronze, has sold for less than half guide. I'm talking 70-80% of the books sold on eBay over the last 14 years.

 

"Lowest possible price" is NOT "AVERAGES."

 

(thumbs u

 

For every single example of a book you can show me that sold for MORE than half OPG in the stated grade, I can show you one that sold for less.

 

Can you get these books for half guide and less if you search around and throw out lots of lowball bids? Yes.

 

Can you sell these books for half guide or more if you don't start your auctions too low and/or have some patience? Yes.

 

Not every book, I admit. Putting aside moderns and most coppers....Some of the prices for early 70's DCs in let's say 8.0 - 9.2 are just plain wacky. Omac 1 is a great book, sure, and I own a few copies, but $40 for a 9.0 copy and $29 for a VF copy? (as of my price guide from a few years ago), but Avengers in the 30s - 50s are generally $10-$12 in VG (at least in my old OPG I have handy), are common as dirt and, as far as I can tell, often sell for about guide once you factor in a reasonable shipping fee. FFs are in the same boat I think, Spideys and X-Men maybe better. Remember, OPG isn't meant to factor in a hypothetical shipping fee, so on books like these in this price range that $3-$5 shipping charge has to come directly out of what you can hope to sell the book for.

 

You're talking about the bottom of the barrel.

 

And you cannot factor in "shipping costs" into this argument. Shipping is NOT standard, in any way, and there is simply no way to figure out what someone actually pays for everything. You have free shipping, you have combined shipping, you have different charges from different sellers, you have different levels of service.

 

If I win several lower grade Silver Avengers for 30% of Guide from a seller who combines...which can be every week....if the cost per book for shipping = 50 cents, there goes your entire argument.

 

There's no way you can say "oh, well, those low grade Silver commons sell for Guide once you figure in shipping!" because there are simply too many variables to consider.

 

Not only that...once you get beyond about $20 or so, shipping essentially becomes superfluous to the final cost anyways.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Or $125 for a NM- Spidey #300.

---------------------

 

well, a couple of years ago i would not be surprised if you could have gotten that for a good looking raw copy given that I got $85 for a VF- copy.

 

A couple of years ago is a couple of years ago, not now. A couple of years ago, a movie featuring the big screen debut of the character who made his own full debut in Spidey #300, was making millions at the box office.

 

That is not the case now.

 

Why hasn't the OPG changed to reflect the market? They've certainly had the time....

[RockMyAmadeus]

Did you read the whole post?

 

Aww...I'm not trying to be mean.

 

I have a lot of passion about this particular subject, and it can spill out in my responses, but it's truly nothing personal.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I assume you are talking GPA data here.

Correct, since the example is a CGC 9.2. (thumbs u

 

GPAnalysis is not a "guide" though. It tracks sales, etc but it is not professing to be a guide and it only represents a small part of the market and of course it is not tracking all CGC sales so even it must be taken with a grain of salt.

 

Never said GPA was a guide. It's most assuredly not (though it is used as one every single day.)

 

A guide is an opinion, while GPA is data.

 

Guides, however, are supposed to REFLECT the market...these are actual, documented sales...it doesn't get any better in terms of data than this.

 

Why, then, are the guides not REFLECTING the market, using the data that exists?

 

And...I'm sorry, "grain of salt"...? You mean, like the dealer "reports" that have been going on for decades, wherein dealers would "report" that items that were previously stone cold dead...but which they happened to have a ton of, oddly enough...were suddenly "in demand", and should be priced higher in the guide...and lo and behold, when they WERE priced higher, unsuspecting buyers would swoop in and buy those previously unmovable books because they had "gone up in the guide"...?

 

You mean like that?

 

No thanks...I'll take GPA's dozens and dozens of documented, verifiable sales over "dealer reports."

 

But you are correct...GPA only represents a small part of the market: slabbed books. And it tracks the MAJORITY of slabbed books. Trust me, there isn't some mythical website out there that is selling CGC 9.2 Wolvie #1s for $70 on average.

 

Guides like OSPG or CPG cannot possibly track all sales of all books everywhere and worse yet they have to "freeze" their prices at certain times which can, of course, miss trends. Trends which may run their course by the time they adjust prices up or down. With CPG at least the common collector can input on pricing data and if a change is warranted they will change the price. I am sure is once the price is set people will complain it is "frozen".

 

Not under dispute. But this is why OPG used to publish a semi-annual, then quarterly, then bi-monthly, then monthly Update...to follow these trends.

 

Then, the market crashed, and such updates were no longer deemed "necessary" in the age of Wizard.

 

I am also amused that people only complain when their books are undervalued and dismiss the values when they trend down.

 

Yeah, but that's human nature, and it takes a lot of intellectual honesty to counter that.

 

OPG will not lower prices on anything unless he is forced to. Bob Overstreet's personal philosophy (which contradicts market realities) has always been this: comics should see a slow, steady growth in price over the years, always. Lowering prices, even if they deserve to be lowered, is against his personal philosophy. This is why you saw books like New Mutants #87 listed at $40 in the 1996 OPG...long after it had become a $5 book again. Lady Death #1 for $85? In 1996? Yeah, ok.

 

Anyway, I don't live and breath by guide values because they are guides not values. Nothing beats being familiar with your part of market. If you know it then guides are pretty unnecessary. I only use guide to introduce me to the ball park of new interest areas of collecting. Once I become familiar with the market I pretty much never look at them again.

 

Which is great...for people like you and me.

 

Where the guides create major havoc, however, is when people who don't know any better are "told" by an official looking publication or website that their "comics" are "worth" this much money.

 

Major problems ensure.

 

Even further, when you deal with one of those people, and you buy books graded "Near Mint" that are about VG/F, and they then tell you, based on the final bid, that "according to the price guides, you still "got a good deal"..."

 

 

Major problems.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I assume you are talking GPA data here. GPAnalysis is not a "guide" though. It tracks sales

 

Isn't a guide based on past sales though, no matter how loosely?

 

Personally I'd take GPA over CPG or OSPG anyday as it's giving you 'real' information. I know it's slabs versus raw, but at least you can take a look at GPA and actually see if a trend in a book has fallen, and not been ignored by people who want to try and hold value in their books that isn't there.

 

It is my opinion....and I believe this is an opinion shared by many, if not most, in the hobby...that a book that has been slabbed Universal in a particular grade is, and should be, worth more than the same book raw, in the same given grade, on average.

[codfish]

I assume you are talking GPA data here. GPAnalysis is not a "guide" though. It tracks sales

 

Isn't a guide based on past sales though, no matter how loosely?

 

Personally I'd take GPA over CPG or OSPG anyday as it's giving you 'real' information. I know it's slabs versus raw, but at least you can take a look at GPA and actually see if a trend in a book has fallen, and not been ignored by people who want to try and hold value in their books that isn't there.

 

Except that GPA is not professing any specific value for a book in any condition. It gives you highs, lows, last sale, period averages and trends. All trends on CGC books which often have a very different value than raw and often can be trending very differently than the raw.

 

CPG and OSPG take a huge set of "incomplete" data note whether or not there is any movement and set values. They have to deal with possible wide ranging values in every grade, regionality, what record prices may mean for the rest of the grades, etc.

 

IMO GPA and CPG/OSPG are very different beasts. GPA has far less to track than OSPG and CPG AND they can deal with finite grades while we all know that the world of raw grading is all over the map. Knowing this has implications in value decisions.