A little CGC census analysis - High Grades... Gone???

[valiantman]

With each update of the CGC census, we always ask ourselves

if the numbers for the high-grade copies might be dwindling.

 

Well, here are a few charts that might help us answer the question...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Focusing on the Yellow Line in each of the graphs...

 

It looks like on the 1930s to 1950s comics are experiencing a "slow-down"

in the number of high-grade copies submitted to CGC...

 

The 1960s through the 1980s are still seeing the 9.4s or better

at the same rate as they've been submitted all along.

 

The 1990s and 2000s are actually seeing more 9.8s than before,

which makes you wonder if the "Big Number Label" 9.8 for (1990s & 2000s)

is an easier thing to get than a "Small Number Label" 9.8 for the same books?

Could pre-screening be the culprit? Even for the 1990s books?

[JohnBull]

[dad-migration]

I would like to see the absolute numbers instead of the percentages. The charts show the relative proportion of high-grade vs. low-grade books. But they don't show absolute numbers.

 

I would expect the numbers to drop through time, especially for the older books.

 

Another interesting statistic that would probably be VERY difficult to estimate would be the number of slabbed vs. unslabbed books in existence (for valuable books of course).

 

What the charts really show is the appreciation or non-appreciation of low-grade books. If low-grade books are being submitted to CGC, that means there is a market for them...

[Darthdiesel]

"Could pre-screening be the culprit? Even for the 1990s books? "

 

almost definitely if you look at what's being sold. Also when prescreening moderns, you still need a 100 minimum - granted you can come up easily with 50 to 60 high potential 'make the grade' candidates off the shelf/out of the case, but for the remainder to fill the invoice, one digs thru high grade copies in their collection and what do most modern colletors have tons of? 90's books

[valiantman]

I would like to see the absolute numbers instead of the percentages.

The percentages used are relative to these totals:

 

1930s&1940s: - 11/11 census: 24,920 books -- Yellow line: 1,641 books

1950s: - 11/11 census: 17,911 books -- Yellow line: 1,396 books

1960s: - 11/11 census: 85,750 books -- Yellow line: 8,189 books

1970s: - 11/11 census: 77,273 books -- Yellow line: 8,437 books

1980s: - 11/11 census: 58,221 books -- Yellow line: 5,266 books

1990s: - 11/11 census: 31,552 books -- Yellow line: 2,645 books

2000s: - 11/11 census: 48,146 books -- Yellow line: 6,267 books

 

The 7/17 census numbers are the 11/11 numbers minus the Yellow line numbers.

What the charts really show is the appreciation or non-appreciation of low-grade books. If low-grade books are being submitted to CGC, that means there is a market for them...

Not exactly...

Yes, only the books with a market in mid- and low-grade are submitted,

but that was true before 7/17... and has been true since the beginning of CGC.

 

There is only about a four-month time-frame between the base numbers

and the 'yellow-line' showing the most recent submissions.

The yellow-line should only jump above the base line(s) when there has been

a relative up-swing in the number of books in that grade. It's not likely that

there has been an "new" appreciation of low-grade books on the market... in four months.

 

More likely, there has been a decline in high-grade submissions recently,

making the low-grades look "stronger" lately.

(Which makes sense for the oldest books, right?)

 

Does this mean that the number of high-grade raw books like Batman #1 are declining?

Probably so... but we all knew that about 1940s books, didn't we?

The question is whether that same "high-grade decline" is occuring for books

like ASM #1, or Hulk #181... and it looks like, at this point, they're not declining much, if any.

[ghoulaid]

Wonderful graphs! With knowledge comes power. It would be no surprise to me to see a substantial slowdown on highgrade submissions for 30s-50s books especially in the next few years. Your graphs cover 4 months(?) so any slowdown there could be for any number of reasons and they could pick back up. In the long run, as more high grade Golden Age gets slabbed, there will be fewer submissions (obviously).

 

As for ASM #1 or Hulk #181: Those submissions may not slow down anytime soon. I'm tempted to say there are a lot of ASM #1 that have been in collections for years (in high grade) that are now trickling into the market due to the movie exposure and other reasons. Hulk #181 - there's an endless supply of those.