Trends for Marvel Price Variants

[buena_vista]

I’ve noticed a couple of interesting things going on in the small world of Marvel price variants lately that I’d like to throw out there and get everyone’s take.

 

First of all, I’m sure the variant collectors have noticed the major drop in selling prices on e-bay. Most 30 centers seem to have a problem cracking the $20 mark.

 

A far cry from a year or so ago, when Darth, mgd5, myself and a few other collectors were fighting over the occasional Avengers, MTU etc. I was even more surprised that the recent Ringo Kid book didn’t even reach $100. Have we run out of collectors?

 

More interesting is the recent Mile High buying ad that was published in the last 2 CBG’s. For the first time, a big store is offering a considerable premium for price variants.

 

There are problems through. First of all, the ad is offering just as much money for the 30 centers as the 35 centers. On top of that, the store’s list is off the mark (it lists Avengers 146-149 as variants, but not 150 – it doesn’t list the Captain America 35 centers etc..).

 

The two interesting points though, is that Mile High is offering more cash for the variants from the common superhero books than from the ones we value as variant collectors. For example, Champions 30 & 35 centers will get you $8 in NM (as compared to $3 for the regular edition) but Chamber of Chills 22 or 23 will only get you $5. This enforces my original theory regarding these books. While we fight over the Western & Horror reprints, it will be the Spideys, Thors & Avengers that will be worth money, if any recognition ever comes to these variants.

 

Second, --- Now while I’m not a fan of Chuck & his prices, he is a canny salesman and is well known for predicting trends in the market. Does this ad hint that there will be a jump in variant prices in the upcoming guide?

 

Opinions?

 

 

 

[lighthouse]

As I am certain Donut could tell you, the prices on the variants swing wildly every 3-6 months and have been doing that for a long time...

 

That's been going on for at least the 4 years that I have been dealing in them, and was probably going on for a while before that. I could post some prices I realized in 2000 that would make you cringe...*

 

A difference of two or three active collectors is pretty big in the variant market. And I don't think we are even close to seeing the last new blood into the field. I told Darth a year ago, I have prices in mind for the various variant books, and I buy them when they fall below that and sell them when they get far above. I have bought and sold at least 600 of the 30c variants in the last four years...

 

As for Mile High's buying, that's not Chuck predicting what the books are "worth", that's him predicting the speed he can turn them in the short term. His pricing isn't based on any traditional measure of value in the marketplace. His pricing is based on his own firm's inventory turns, and what his model stock is for an item. I doubt many of you realize, and perhaps I shouldn't give this away, but Chuck's books aren't priced by humans at all. It's not as though his office manager sits down and comes up with the new price for Witchblade 1. His pricing is entirely done by his mainframe, which tracks his current stock levels and adjusts prices up and down to generate the turnover rate he is looking for. If he started December with 22 copies of Spawn #6 and they sold 13 copies and bought 21 more by the end of the month, his mainframe automatically changes the price on Spawn #6 to fit the new turnover rate (in this case lowering it).

 

That's part of why you will see exceedingly high prices on the books with limited duplication. Because his software is telling him those books are not coming in the door, so he should hang on to the copy he has...

 

His buying ads are a good measure of his stock levels, but they tell you nothing about future values on books...

 

*...and since I was bored... Avengers 150 ($105.02) ... Champions 6 ($33.00 bought by Metropolis) ... Incredible Hulk 199 ($105.05) ... Ghost Rider 17-18-19 ($46-$51-$55) ... Iron Man 89 ($139) ... Marvel Spotlight 28 ($66.01) ... But for comparison, later that year I sold 26 30c variants on eBay that didn't break $1 each...

[lighthouse]

Actually, I am glad you posted this thread... In preparing my reply I went back through a lot of my sales records from 1999-2000 and was surprised by some of the forumites I found there... There are now four more forum members that I have dealt with than I remembered before.

 

And, because I thought it might be of interest:

 

Total number of different buyers I had for 30c variants in 1999-2000 was 81...

 

Eighty-one different people. Most of whom were not trying to put a set together. I think the 30c variants might have more legs than people give them credit for...

[Mephisto]

 

A far cry from a year or so ago, when Darth, mgd5, myself and a few other collectors were fighting over the occasional Avengers, MTU etc. I was even more surprised that the recent Ringo Kid book didn’t even reach $100. Have we run out of collectors?

 

Do any of you Varient guys have Marvel Chillers 4 (30 cent varient)

Marvel Tales 82, 83 (35 cent varient) available?

[blowout]

Eighty-one different people. Most of whom were not trying to put a set together. I think the 30c variants might have more legs than people give them credit for...

 

I would say that the majority of variant collectors I have come across are not trying to put a variant set together but a complete run of a particular title. The extra challenge of finding price variants adds thet bit of extra spice to putting together an otherwise easy run. All the variants I have personally bought (about a dozen) over the years have been from titles that I was already collecting.

I certainly feel that there are plenty more variant collectors to come, after all, a lot of comic book collectors are not yet aware that they exist.

[Warlord]

Just some rambling... looks to me like the HG collecting mentality is settling in... you are seeing LG copies not get much attention, but the VF and above copies are still bringing $100+.

 

Maybe the upgrading cycle is kicking in for the current collectors who have most of what they want.

 

Also I'd note that Motor City is hitting eBay with quite a number of issues, and that could be tapping out some of the less well-funded players...

[Guest]

Just some rambling... looks to me like the HG collecting mentality is settling in... you are seeing LG copies not get much attention, but the VF and above copies are still bringing $100+.

//quote]

 

WHile teh Ringo Kid went "relatively cheap", the primary reason prices seem lower laely is that we are seeing much more low and mid grade stuff hit eBay. One reason Ringo Kid 27 went so cheap is two fold:

 

For some reason a bunch of people seem to have it in for motor city and just don't want to bid on the stuff he sells. Second, Most serious guys (that I know at least) that want the set have a 27. A 27 in VG for somebody trying to complete the set is as good as VF, so far as coming up with additional dough.In essence there is less marginal value to a collector of some higher grade scarce issues, than is normally the case. Whether or not a VF issue is normally worth 4 times more than a VG, many variant collectors won't put up traditional excess money. All they want is ANY copy of the variant in question. I happen to think that high grade is the way to go with these. My Western and horror collection is such niow that I need at least VF/NM in most titles to upgrade. If I saw them I would bid.

 

Additionally, I hvae submitted close to 600 books to CGC in my days. I know for a fact that books on average are 2.0 less in CGC grade than advertised. We'll see this when I post my 35 cent collection after it gets back from CGC. However a look at GPA Analysis shows that CGC high grade copies are still going at decently high prices. I was surprised at how low the prices were that Darth realized on some of his CGC items. I have seen lesser un-graded books sell for more than some of his stuff sold for slabbed. Bottom line: people are beginning to realize it is easy to get ripped off paying good money for mid graded variants.

 

These varianst are like stocks though, if you do a little homework. There is a certain price at which they occasionally sell that will almost certainly prove to be cheap once a bit of time elapses. I think the real problem is that sellers somehow feel entitled to receive at least 9.99 on any old VG or Fine variant.

 

While I am probably 10-20 issues away from two complete sets, I continue to be on the constant look out for upgrades to my set. I am always on the lookout for VF/NM, or better, stuff.

 

I think the story that is more compelling than the drop in 30 cent variants, pricewise, is the explosion of 35 cent material. Nothing like $100 prices realized to draw inventory into the market. Just a year ago you were lucky to see 1 or two 35 centers per week. These days it seems like 35 centers occassionally vie with 30 centers for the biggest amount of space taken. Once a few big spenders get material they want, prices are sure to drop. This being the case, high grade material is the only thing that will protect your store of value.

[joe_collector]

Just some rambling... looks to me like the HG collecting mentality is settling in... you are seeing LG copies not get much attention, but the VF and above copies are still bringing $100+.

 

Actually, I've seen a few LG and MG auctions go for big bucks, and like I've said a few times before, it all comes down to listing an issue that multiple hardcore collectors need for their run.

 

If cosmic and the big boys already own Issue X, then unless it's CGC 9.X, you won't be hitting $100+. On the other hand, for a VG Western, Reprint or tough to find issue that multiple BSD's need, the sky's the limit.

[DaethWalker]

Actually, I've seen a few LG and MG auctions go for big bucks, and like I've said a few times before, it all comes down to listing an issue that multiple hardcore collectors need for their run.

 

If cosmic and the big boys already own Issue X, then unless it's CGC 9.X, you won't be hitting $100+. On the other hand, for a VG Western, Reprint or tough to find issue that multiple BSD's need, the sky's the limit.

 

This is pretty much true for any hard to find comic, whether a price variant or just a normal key.

 

I think a lot of collectors, especially when they 1st start collecting are happy to find a copy in any grade. But, once they've pretty much gotten every comic they want/need, they then look for higher graded copies.

 

So, a VG - VF copy of any HTF comic will fetch higher prices ... until those collecting them have what they need and start looking for upgrades.

 

Prices fall on the lower grades and rise on the higher grades. Until the next influx of new collectors. Then, you see the higher grades stabilize for a while, while the lower/mid grades rise.

 

It basically runs in cycles. The problem is, the cycles vary from comic to comic, depending on what's hot at the time new collectors come into the market.

 

Now ... if I only had a magic mirror ... nah, it'd probably crack if I asked it who had the greatest comic of all.

[Freiherr]

Which variant goes for more, 30 cent or 35 cent?

 

I am going to try to sell a few 35 cent variants, but I think it will be at least a month before I will be able to. I also think most of them are high enough grade to send to CGC and that adds even more time.

 

Am I hosed? Are variants a fad or something worth sitting on?

 

[DaethWalker]

Which variant goes for more, 30 cent or 35 cent?

 

I am going to try to sell a few 35 cent variants, but I think it will be at least a month before I will be able to. I also think most of them are high enough grade to send to CGC and that adds even more time.

 

Am I hosed? Are variants a fad or something worth sitting on?

 

Well, the 30 centers use to be worth more ... a lot more. Now?

 

As far as them being a fad? Nope. Nada. Nyet.

 

At least, not the more popular titles. There will always be collectors that just have to have every copy and variant of their favorite title. And the price variants are pretty much in every title.

[lighthouse]

Which variant goes for more, 30 cent or 35 cent?

 

I am going to try to sell a few 35 cent variants, but I think it will be at least a month before I will be able to. I also think most of them are high enough grade to send to CGC and that adds even more time.

 

Am I hosed? Are variants a fad or something worth sitting on?

 

Well, the 30 centers use to be worth more ... a lot more. Now?

 

As far as them being a fad? Nope. Nada. Nyet.

 

At least, not the more popular titles. There will always be collectors that just have to have every copy and variant of their favorite title. And the price variants are pretty much in every title.

 

Collectors want to collect... and they want to collect items that match the three big criteria:

 

Possible, Affordable, Challenging

 

We all have our own definition of affordable and challenging, but those are the three criteria a collecting goal has to have. Who wakes up and decides they want a raw 9.0 run of Spawn 1-10? No one. Because there is absolutely no challenge whatsoever. Possible and affordable sure, but no challenge at all unless you impose artificial limitations, like "raw 9.0 run of Spawn 1-10 found in quarter boxes".

 

It helps if the collector has some other ties to the material... if he already collects stuff by the same artist, or she knows the guy who inked the books, or he grew up reading them and wants them for nostalgia. But it's actually not necessary. Plenty of collections are just a matter of "hey this might be cool to try". I have a nice collection of pre-code romance books with catfight covers, and until I owned a shop I had absolutely no reason to start that hobby...

 

Back to the 30c price variants:

 

Possible and challenging are both there...

 

I mentioned earlier in the thread that these have gone in cycles. That's not too surprising. Because those cycles affect affordability. You're not going to get someone paying big prices for the first couple 30c variants they buy for their collection. Most of the "new" variant collectors jump in when the prices are cheap. They fill a bunch of wholes, learn more about variant collecting, start making trades, get more serious about which ones they want to buy... Pretty soon prices have gone up. Because they weren't the only ones to jump in at that moment... Prices go up and up and up as the current batch of collectors competes for the books they need. But at the same time no new collectors are getting on the train. A guy looks at an Avengers 148 in Fine selling for $33 and decides that collecting variants just isn't affordable...

 

So once that batch of collectors reaches the point of diminishing returns, which takes about 6 months if they are serious about their buying, suddenly the prices drop again. Because no one is 4 months into the cycle. And no one is 2 months into the cycle. There isn't a price support for the higher levels.

 

After a few weeks, prices have dropped back down to the initial levels, the levels at which dozens of people would buy the books... and after a brief period, some new collectors decide the quest is worth beginning... and it all starts over again.

 

Price variant collecting is unlikely to go away any time soon.

[Darthdiesel]

I just spent $140 on water damaged "upgrade" variants that ended in the past two days - I think that certain 30 centers will always fetch a premium due to relative scarcity. However, certain new collectors also got to fill a few holes in their collection relatively cheap...

[Warlord]

I just spent $140 on water damaged "upgrade" variants that ended in the past two days - I think that certain 30 centers will always fetch a premium due to relative scarcity. However, certain new collectors also got to fill a few holes in their collection relatively cheap...

 

Upgrades? The water damaged copies were upgrades for you? Saw you bumping heads with a few others on those VF or better issues. You guys were way above me though, I was just bottom fishing and got three bargains.

 

So, what 30-centers do you still need to have the whole set?

 

 

[Guest]

I just spent $140 on water damaged "upgrade" variants that ended in the past two days - I think that certain 30 centers will always fetch a premium due to relative scarcity. However, certain new collectors also got to fill a few holes in their collection relatively cheap...

 

I will readily admit that "water-damaged" comics do little to excite me. The biggest fear I have of today;s auctiosn are standard grading problems. I got back the first of many batch orders to CGC this week. I cracked the whip on the pre-grades, bringing most well below what they were advertised as. Even still they came in an average of 0.43 less than I had pre-graded tham at. Seems like no matter how Harsh I grade I am still 1/4 to 1/2 grade below what CGC sends them back as.

 

The seller "Doc" did send a nice "preventive maintenence" e-mail stating that he would make good on any problems that might come up in grading discrepancies. Except for some of the books wher I only own 1 copy, I kept away from anything less than VF and especially anything with waterdamage.

 

As far as oveall pricing, of late. I can't say it has been easy finding bargains. The "goat" is always on the lookout for hidden stuff. In addition to "Cosmic Spider-Man", "Horkorp" has been trolling deep and wide with some good pick ups of late

 

The same old stuff continues to be hard to find. When's the last time you saw a copy of Wierd Wonder Tales 16 show up for auction? I also can't remember ever seing either of the Chamber of Chills issues. Werewolfe in decent grade is another that I don't recall seeing ever.

 

The current X-Men in 9.6 looks awfully interesting. . I'm going to guess that reserve is somewhere near $1000 and suspect it will go for close to that..

 

I believe that we are seeing a few more players more than half full in theri collections. As the number of players with lots of copies heats up, this will ultimatelly fuel the fire for higher grade copies that will be upgrades to those old collections.

 

I believe that at a reasonable price, the VF or better copies of just about all variants will remain in demand. I'll buy multiple copies all day long...

[Darthdiesel]

I just spent $140 on water damaged "upgrade" variants that ended in the past two days - I think that certain 30 centers will always fetch a premium due to relative scarcity. However, certain new collectors also got to fill a few holes in their collection relatively cheap...

 

Upgrades? The water damaged copies were upgrades for you? Saw you bumping heads with a few others on those VF or better issues. You guys were way above me though, I was just bottom fishing and got three bargains.

 

So, what 30-centers do you still need to have the whole set?

 

 

I'm hoping that the ones above VF were as stated...my copies of the ones I was trying to upgrade are FN if that and I'm probably pushing it...some of the ones I don't come across often were quick pickups and I bid on all of them across the board pretty much at real low marker bids that if I won them at that price would have been a deal...

 

I still need:Adventures on the Planet of the Apes 7

Kid Colt Outlaw 208

Rawhide Kid 133

Rawhide Kid 134

Ringo Kid 28

 

LMK if you can help and I may be able to hook you up with some doubles as well.

[Darthdiesel]

I will readily admit that "water-damaged" comics do little to excite me.

 

Same here, I think it was more of a disclaimer - when this seller started listing I was more excited by the new location and possiblility of adding another test site! Here's a bit of that email from seller doc_stone re: variants in Charleston, SC:

 

Hi,

Apparently Charleston, SC was a test city...the person who put this

collection together over the years is from Charleston and accumulated

the newer part of his collection there...I think I have found all the

variants in his collection and put them up for auction this week...it is amazing to me that he had so many in the first place--I had never seen so many

together...sorry there were not more...

Doc

 

Funny how the 1976 is his newer part of that collection - I see he is also listing some DC Funny men and the seller told me to keep my eye on his auctions as he will have more of these books but no more variants and none of the 5 I needed.

 

The biggest fear I have of today;s auctiosn are standard grading problems. I got back the first of many batch orders to CGC this week. I cracked the whip on the pre-grades, bringing most well below what they were advertised as. Even still they came in an average of 0.43 less than I had pre-graded tham at. Seems like no matter how Harsh I grade I am still 1/4 to 1/2 grade below what CGC sends them back as.

 

Sorry to hear about the lower-than-expected grades Glenn, but nice low deviation figure - fill me in if you want. You know I keep tabs on all our collections and notes as well. Did you ask CGC what the issues was? Was it hidden water/moisture damage wrinkling the inside pages?

 

The seller "Doc" did send a nice "preventive maintenence" e-mail stating that he would make good on any problems that might come up in grading discrepancies. Except for some of the books wher I only own 1 copy, I kept away from anything less than VF and especially anything with waterdamage.

 

That's always good to know: Here's my breakdown on his auctions; I haven't got around to the $$$ yet -

 

58 books

 

Winners:

 

horkorp (Harry)= 19

darthdiesel (Carl) = 11

stalking_goat (Glenn) = 8

comichunters = 4

ferndale4 = 4

the_collectors (Wayne) = 3

familymikeo = 2

scorp1001 = 2

whortec = 1

rob_react (Rob) = 1

zomatic1 = 1

byrdman02118 = 1

cosmic-spider-man (Terry) = 1

 

How did we let Terry get that Strange Tales so easily? Must be a book most folks have in pretty good shape? That was one of my last 10 to go books...

 

As far as oveall pricing, of late. I can't say it has been easy finding bargains. The "goat" is always on the lookout for hidden stuff. In addition to "Cosmic Spider-Man", "Horkorp" has been trolling deep and wide with some good pick ups of late

 

Nice pick up btw on the Sgt Fury - I've been so lazy on my "fury" searches this past week - always coming up with more new listings than I cared to wade through. Harry (horkorp) alerted me to a few that he was not going to bid on ahead and was "sharing the wealth" - very nice guy to deal with. He has been more focused on locating the hidden gems lately. I'm just focusing on the 5 I need pretty much...

 

The same old stuff continues to be hard to find. When's the last time you saw a copy of Weird Wonder Tales 16 show up for auction? I also can't remember ever seing either of the Chamber of Chills issues. Werewolfe in decent grade is another that I don't recall seeing ever.

 

I still have not come across the WWT 16 in an auction I lucked out that Joel (mgd5) was getting married and hooked me up with several HTF issues I needed. I got both of my Chamber of Chills from him as well! My Werewolf by Nights 38 and 39 both came from a seller in MN - mattiejc, until I upgraded with Blazingbob's copies of both! I just came across both Werewolfs in VG+ and picked those up off eBay.

 

The current X-Men in 9.6 looks awfully interesting. . I'm going to guess that reserve is somewhere near $1000 and suspect it will go for close to that..

 

Sniping at $1K, eh? I'll check back on it tomorrow. $725 and resrve not met with 19 hours to go. And I'm bidding against another High grade X-men seller It is top census and new, but Ewert always has the good stuff- I wonder if he'll whip out more or even a 9.8 copy of this Xmen 98 variant! I wouldn't put it past him based on his past offerings elite high grade of GS Xmen 1 and X-men 94s

 

I believe that we are seeing a few more players more than half full in theri collections. As the number of players with lots of copies heats up, this will ultimatelly fuel the fire for higher grade copies that will be upgrades to those old collections.

 

I sure hope so. I can see it on the ones listed with VF/NM or higher in the descriptions.

 

I believe that at a reasonable price, the VF or better copies of just about all variants will remain in demand. I'll buy multiple copies all day long...

 

I agree with this right here - except for HTD 3 and Eternals 1 - I still don't get the uncommonly high prices on Eternals 1 in 9.0 and higher - is it due to it being a Kirby book?

[Guest]

 

The current X-Men in 9.6 looks awfully interesting. . I'm going to guess that reserve is somewhere near $1000 and suspect it will go for close to that..

 

Sniping at $1K, eh? I'll check back on it tomorrow. $725 and resrve not met with 19 hours to go. And I'm bidding against another High grade X-men seller It is top census and new, but Ewert always has the good stuff- I wonder if he'll whip out more or even a 9.8 copy of this Xmen 98 variant! I wouldn't put it past him based on his past offerings elite high grade of GS Xmen 1 and X-men 94s

 

I think a lot of bidders with no intention of buying, bid to get a handle on the reserve. As you actually get close to a realistic price bids become tenuos for fear they might actually be on the hook for a book they can't or don't want to pay for. The real problem with this one is that you are up against some hard core zealous X-Men collectors I imagine versius the standard variant collector.

 

I believe that at a reasonable price, the VF or better copies of just about all variants will remain in demand. I'll buy multiple copies all day long...

 

I agree with this right here - except for HTD 3 and Eternals 1 - I still don't get the uncommonly high prices on Eternals 1 in 9.0 and higher - is it due to it being a Kirby book?

 

For 10 bucks even HG Etrernals are not a bad deal.

[Guest]

 

 

Sorry to hear about the lower-than-expected grades Glenn, but nice low deviation figure - fill me in if you want. You know I keep tabs on all our collections and notes as well. Did you ask CGC what the issues was? Was it hidden water/moisture damage wrinkling the inside pages?...How did we let Terry get that Strange Tales so easily? Must be a book most folks have in pretty good shape? That was one of my last 10 to go books... ....Nice pick up btw on the Sgt Fury - I've been so lazy on my "fury" searches this past week - always coming up with more new listings than I cared to wade through.

 

I will keep ypou well posted Darth. This was a just a small part of what I have into CGC. To say the least I have a lot of trade material. I am close enoght to a second full set of the 30 centers thgat I might be tempted to complete another.

 

As far as Strange Tales, I think it had water damage as I recall. Normally I would have gone for that and the Triple Action. Water damaged comics are teh bane of this delightful hobby. I suppose one day I'll have a batch of high priced ones out in front of me and spill a Coke on them or something. You might see a grown man cry.

 

There are certain comics that I am always on the lookout for, including Sgt Fury. It didn't hurt that for the price I have seen one variant Fury go fot that I also picked up a copy of #1 and just about all the run through 10, plus a bunch more. I saw Cosmic pick up a Red Sonja 5 35 center for 2.50. Makes me think I need to work a little harder.

 

This makes agood point however. When one of the board memebers lost their sanity and posted the Rawhide auction a few weeks back everybody responded with typical piety, claiming their search had turned it up anyway. I keep seeing Cosmic, Horkorp, myself and others turn over jewel after jewel, with only modest competition.

 

There can be two weeks go by without me checking on a lot of the 30 centers and especially the 35 centers. Everybody collecting does not just happen onto every book worth knowing about.

 

BTW for those of you that love comics and pinball machines, my wife bought me the new Lord of the Rings machine by Stern for Christmas. I own a few 1970's Gottlieb machines, but have never been impressed with the newer machines. This one has changed my mind. It is perhaps the best machine I have ever played. If you like pinball, you'll love the Lord of the Rings machine.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[joe_collector]

I keep seeing Cosmic, Horkorp, myself and others turn over jewel after jewel, with only modest competition.

 

Just an FYI that I have pretty well taken myself out of the race, and although I track some, I usually just let the variants slide.

 

I was watching a few (including that Red Sonja Cosmic got), but when I see a BSD swoop in late, I'm a nice guy and let them have it as cheap as possible. I know I'm not prepared to bid as high as Cosmic (and he's bought some 35-centers from me in the past) so why not just step aside?

 

Now I may be an anomaly, but I still find tons, but bid on very few, and sometimes pass them on to Cosmic or Darth. You could almost say I'm a "Variant Voyeur".