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CLink auction results.

Started by october,

246 posts in this topic

Sqeggs

Sqeggs

Posted
Posted
If someone could provide an alternate theory as to why fairly common comic books (whether they be keys or not) were going up in price in the violatile, deflationary environment that existed from October 2007-April 2009, I'd like to hear it. I don't think its a coincidence that those prices have leveled out and have come back down now that risk is back in the marketplace and people are willing to invest again.

 

It's my best guess as well. However, given that a lot of people are predicting the stock market will fall again within the next year, possibly to worse depths than we've seen yet during this recession, it'll be interesting to see if people start paying a lot for keys again if it happens. :ohnoez:

 

Maybe, but here is something to think about: The Dow closed today at 9949, roughly where it was at in Spring 1999. The S&P closed at 1081, roughly where it was at in Fall 1998. I'm too lazy to haul out my old Overstreets to figure out the increases in the prices of key comics since 1998 or 1999, but clearly the multiples are very substantial. So, which type of investment is overpriced?

 

If you want to look ahead 10 years, to argue that stock market won't be markedly higher is to argue that we will have had a (by then) 20 year run with returns way below the long run average. Possible, but you have to be very pessimistic about the U.S. economy to see that as likely.

 

Where will comics be in 10 years? Well, I think there are a lot of folks out there (like me) who got into comics in the 1960s and 1970s. Ten years from now these people will be that much closer to unloading (or having the heirs unload) their collections. Where will the buyers for these books comes from? Clearly there has been a collapse in comic book sales in the U.S. since the 1960s and 1970s, which presumably reduces the potential number of young collectors. In addition, the nature of comics has greatly changed. Most younger fans see Silver and Golden Age books as being poorly written and badly drawn. It's hard to see them being attracted to these books other than as investments. Ultimately, the fundamental value of any collectible is determined by how many people are willing to buy it and hold it. Not buy it as an investment.

 

There will always be a market for key books, but I would be amazed if 10 years from now the prices of those books aren't markedly lower than they are today. My 2c

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Tec-Tac-Toe

Tec-Tac-Toe

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Last GPA sale was 850 5/09

Just closed for $1802

 

Batman 251

 

Very nice looking copy. If this had the white stripe I do not think it would have come close to that price.

Crazy price for that book. But it is a sweet copy for sure!

 

Is it me, or does that book seem to have suffered some holder damage on the lower right corner? The FC appears to be folded back at that location. Whenever I have seen this, it has not been the scan but actual damage to the book. Considering the price this book sold for, I hope it does not have edit: such :end edit damage.

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Sqeggs

Sqeggs

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Posted
My thoughts…..

 

1. Comiclink would be wise to go to every other month for their auctions as every month is just too much...

 

Comiclink is a business in it for the money. So when you say wise, are you saying that you think they can make more money by decreasing the frequency of their auctions? Maybe they will get higher prices, but the volume will decrease, so it would be hard to tell if their business would be better off as you suggest. Unfortuneately, I think their business/profit interest would always take precedence over the future of the industry, even though both are linked.

 

5. I am hoping sellers will slow down their submissions to auction houses in general just to give the market a chance to breath and not have this abundance of the same old books every single time which hurts sales for the seller.

 

One can hope for it, but one really can't have it both ways. If prices go up, supply will follow. I'd guess that submissions in general are driven by price, so the biggest driver to get people to slow down their submissions would be if they saw less return on their investment. In other words, one can't hope for people to submit less simply to keep prices stable. Prices would have to come down first, in order for people to act this way.

 

Follow up…..

 

I think it’s better for both comic link and the sellers in the long-term that they go to every other month. Short-term thinking will make you the quick buck, but lose out in the long-term stability. Either way if the sellers feel they are not getting close to the prices they assume they will get then you will see less and less submissions to c-links monthly auction format, which could prove to make comiclink go every other month anyway to keep the 30-40 pages of books per auction.

 

I am not saying this will happen next month or even 6months, but if sellers see they are getting much less than GPA they will heavily consider not submitting their books as much which will let to less auctions per month.

 

You can’t just keep shoving the same books down the throats of our small market place of people buying comics and not think supply will out way demand and the prices will suffer somewhat.

 

The ASM #75 CGC 9.6 especially, as the book is badly centered and bad PQ, so a lot of collectors know they can just wait till next month where the chance of seeing a better copy is highly probable, especially as you can preview the next months books prior anyway. The ASM’s in 121/122 in CGC 9.6 went for far less money as well do to due bad aesthetics, and the 122 looking like it might have SCS since it looks lose in the case. They both didn’t even break $1000, that’s terrible.

 

Here is my best example ASM #129 in CGC 9.8. That book I think has been in the last 3 Comic Link Auctions and the last ComicConnect auction, so the book went from being a 12-15000 book to 9k tops just that quick. That book is common now in 9.8. If they would have spread the book out over a year the prices had a much better shot of yielding a higher final amount for sure.

 

With Pressing I understand that a lot of HG books will become more available and in turn the price will be effected eventually to, especially with a book like ASM 129 which is very common in HG.

 

I think you say really good points and I see actually what you are saying. I just feel it is possible for Josh and others like him to look long-term instead of short-term as a business model of over saturating the market every month.

 

…..but again we are talking about comics, and it’s all good! (thumbs u

 

Points well received.

 

I'll discuss your last statement of which I am not so sure because when it comes to business and free market forces, it is almost impossible to fight basic economics.

 

If CL turns down business and explains their reasoning to a seller, that seller is likely to turn to a competitor like CC. It would be "uneconomical" for CC to turn down that business. CL and CC could agree on both timing their auctions but again it comes down to pure economics. It would have to come to a point where they see both their businesses suffering and come upon that sort of agreement to improve both their businesses.

 

Now, with at least 5 major auction houses for a seller to choose from, it's unlikely the seller's business will be turned down for the good of the long term to keep from over saturating the market. Actually, I would say impossible, since you have Ebay which is completely non-selective.

 

In other words (...again), it's up to the free market. Manipulation can only go so far.

 

 

Doubt that would be legal ....

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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Posted
I wonder if that book got "previewed."

 

hm

 

It is a conundrum

 

It's a few hundred more than previous copies have sold for but this copy is perfectly centered and that is nearly impossible for this book.

 

I'd chalk up the price to the centering as chances are this book has already been pressed.

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Old Fashion PB and J

Old Fashion PB and J

Posted
Posted
Last GPA sale was 850 5/09

Just closed for $1802

 

Batman 251

 

Very nice looking copy. If this had the white stripe I do not think it would have come close to that price.

Crazy price for that book. But it is a sweet copy for sure!

 

Is it me, or does that book seem to have suffered some holder damage on the lower right corner? The FC appears to be folded back at that location. Whenever I have seen this, it has not been the scan but actual damage to the book. Considering the price this book sold for, I hope it does not have edit: such :end edit damage.

I hadnt really looked at that. But did see the scan before. At that price scs would be unacceptable.
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innocuous

innocuous

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Posted

I need to start setting reminders for myself. I missed a ton of low priced, high grade Flash tonight because I didn't bother to check mail until after dinner. :doh:

 

As for ComicLink itself, I think Heritage would just crush them if they fees were more reasonable. The heritage site is leaps better than the CL interface that hasn't changed in years.

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Hedge Collector

Hedge Collector

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Posted
This beauty sold last night in the ComicLink auction for $8,100! :o That's more than twice the 12 month GPA average of $3,440. In fact the same book sold for $3,533 in the January 2009 ComicLink auction. I don't think ASM 17 is a key issue although it features the second appearance of the Green Goblin and the CGC census reports only 11 books graded higher (2 at 9.8 and 9 at 9.6). And 9.4 copies show up for sale fairly often. One sold in the September auction (with an old label and off white pages) for $3,251.

 

asm17CGC94-sold10-20-098100CL.jpg

 

One reason for prices like this is when two bidders end up putting in "supermax" bids. Bids that they don't want to pay (who knows if they even can), but just put in to beat everyone elses max. When two bidders do this, you can get a close with an outrageous price.

 

I know because I've done it before just to ensure winning the book. Luckily, my wins have been high but not outrageous. Once a book closed at an astronomical price because the other bidder must have done the same as me except that they put in a higher supermax bid. I'm glad I didn't win that one!...

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Sal

Sal

Posted
Posted
This beauty sold last night in the ComicLink auction for $8,100! :o That's more than twice the 12 month GPA average of $3,440. In fact the same book sold for $3,533 in the January 2009 ComicLink auction. I don't think ASM 17 is a key issue although it features the second appearance of the Green Goblin and the CGC census reports only 11 books graded higher (2 at 9.8 and 9 at 9.6). And 9.4 copies show up for sale fairly often. One sold in the September auction (with an old label and off white pages) for $3,251.

 

asm17CGC94-sold10-20-098100CL.jpg

 

One reason for prices like this is when two bidders end up putting in "supermax" bids. Bids that they don't want to pay (who knows if they even can), but just put in to beat everyone elses max. When two bidders do this, you can get a close with an outrageous price.

 

I know because I've done it before just to ensure winning the book. Luckily, my wins have been high but not outrageous. Once a book closed at an astronomical price because the other bidder must have done the same as me except that they put in a higher supermax bid. I'm glad I didn't win that one!...

 

No offense, but the concept of putting in a bid for more than I want to pay for a book is kind of :screwy: to me. Talk about a high risk threshold

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VintageComics

VintageComics

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Posted

 

No offense, but the concept of putting in a bid for more than I want to pay for a book is kind of :screwy: to me. Talk about a high risk threshold

 

Some of us like the rush.

 

:whee:

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