Is the price of Moderns starting to rise again?

[dekeuk]

The opinion around here is that almost all moderns will eventually be worth $1 plus the cost of the slab for 9.8 copies, because of ever-increasing supply.

 

Today I happened to look up the GPA value for ASM #315 CGC 9.8 and was surprised to see prices on this book bottomed around April 2009

 

Even more interesting, the number of completed GPA sales has dramatically decreased. Between January and June there were 22 CGC 9.8 copies sold that were recorded as GPA sales. Between July and October there only 5 CGC 9.8 sales, and at higher average prices than the previous period.

 

Some of that decline is related to the recession, and some might be related to people moving ebay books to other non-GPA sites.

 

But I think what we are starting to see is that the supply of certain issues in CGC 9.8 is not unlimited. The "peak slabbing activity" for some issues may have been reached (at least until a new unopened case of this issue is discovered I guess)

 

Here are the recent GPA prices for this issue:

 

 

Oct-11-2009 $45 Cert# 0946200019

Sep-21-2009 $70 Cert# 0942414014

Aug-15-2009 $50 Cert# 0714649025

Aug-09-2009 $72 Cert# 0939055002

Jul-20-2009 $56 Cert# 0942414014

Jun-08-2009 $70 Cert# 0942414014

Jun-05-2009 $54 Cert# 0768209011

Jun-01-2009 $113 Cert# 0781621010

May-24-2009 $51

May-13-2009 $56

May-10-2009 $39 Cert# 0940932015

Apr-30-2009 $52 Cert# 0931770018

Apr-26-2009 $50 Cert# 0951722029

Apr-19-2009 $39 Cert# 0940932011

Apr-19-2009 $43

Apr-07-2009 $40

Mar-30-2009 $46 Cert# 0799142009

Mar-29-2009 $42 Cert# 0940932016

Mar-18-2009 $31

Mar-04-2009 $44 Cert# 0940932014

Mar-01-2009 $39 Cert# 0940932018

Feb-22-2009 $62

Feb-08-2009 $39 Cert# 0940932014

Feb-01-2009 $45 Cert# 0911571020

Jan-28-2009 $56

Jan-18-2009 $49 Cert# 0940932017

Jan-11-2009 $35

 

 

 

 

 

 

[etanick]

I think the price decline has reached a point where many sellers have pulled back on selling moderns because there are little profit to be made so unless they must sell, stop listings.

 

Thus, less supplies ---> firmer prices

 

if price rise to a point where profit can be made, the market will be flooded again. Simple law of economic as far as I am concerned.

 

[500Club]

I think the price decline has reached a point where many sellers have pulled back on selling moderns because there are little profit to be made so unless they must sell, stop listings.

 

Thus, less supplies ---> firmer prices

 

if price rise to a point where profit can be made, the market will be flooded again. Simple law of economic as far as I am concerned.

 

On the money.

 

When you factor in the submitter's time to find and screen books, the submission cost, the shipping to and from CGC, the base prices for modern CGC 9.8s should likely firm around $35-$50.

 

dekeuk's numbers certainly suggest this.