CGC 9.8 Bronze and Copper Age

[spookley]

My question is: how much do you think that books from 1975-1980 and 1980-1985 are worth in CGC 9.8 (factoring in that the books are from a mainstream Marvel or DC title and a non-key)...of course it also depends on whether the title is ASM or X-men or Batman or Justice League of America, etc...

 

I have GPA and know what these books are going for now, but I see only a downward trend...

 

You have to figure at some point these books are not going to be worth it to slab...

 

[AGGIEZ]

99.9% of the books in the 1975-1979 range are already not worth it with the CGC fee change in April '09

[RockMyAmadeus]

Eventually, there will come a point (which has already been reached by most of the books) where it's not worth it to slab them. Dan Greenhalgh of Showcase New England, who just slabbed 13,000 of these books (mostly 90's) thinks that number is around $40-$50.

 

I tend to agree.

 

Sellers simply cannot continue to slab books for an average cost of about $20/book, not including the value of the book itself, and sell them for $25...or less...before fees. Even at $30, you're selling the slab for a loss when all fees, time, and materials are factored in.

 

So, what will happen is this: the books that are already slabbed will sell, most at a loss, some at a substantial loss, until they are all absorbed by the market. The slabbing of anything that doesn't sell for $35 or more will functionally cease.

 

Then, new buyers of these books (whether they are new collectors, or just old collectors branching out, and provided they don't slab themselves) will either be forced to pay a premium for them from whomever has them to sell, or they'll have to wait until someone comes along and is willing to sell them at a loss (which is certainly possible), or they'll have to advertise that they'll pay more for someone to slab for them.

 

The good news, if any can be found, is that there aren't (yet) masses and masses of these books already slabbed. The vast majority of books from 1975-up still have less than 50 copies, and most less than 25, in 9.8. Dealing in these numbers, there won't be a way to establish a "base price" (like, say, $5 or so) for these common books in 9.8.

 

 

[gpanalysis]

If we take ASM (one of the most traded titles in that period 1975-1985), we can get a reasonable picture of that collecting segment, especially when we look at books that are traded every year. Although we still have over 3 weeks to go for 2009, the figures give us some interesting data.

 

So, methodology: take all Bronze/Copper ASM sales published between 1975-1985 and sold between 2002-2009, but only select those where a sale has occurred in every year. Order yearly averages for all grades, 9.8, and 9.2-9.6 grades.

 

In all grades, 2007 saw the highest average price paid. The volume traded is increasing for books between 1975-1980, but for those between 1981-1985 volume has gone down since 2007. 1975-1980 books are now back to 2003-2004 prices, and 1981-1985 books are now back to 2003 prices (just above the lowest average recorded).

 

In 9.2-9.6, a similar picture. 1975-1980 books now trading at between 2003-2004 prices. 1981-1985 books now just above 2003 prices.

 

In 9.8: books published between 1975-1980 have seen a doubling of volume from 2007 to 2008, and a doubling again for this year over last. Although a significant fall in average price paid was seen in 2008, 2009 has seen a slowing down (but continuation) of that fall. Prices are now higher than those seen in 2003-2004, but not higher than any year thereafter. 1981-1985 books have seen a sharp fall in average price paid for 2008 and 2009. Prices are now at their second lowest, 2003 prices being only slightly lower.

 

Fot this segment, definitely a buyer's market, and will continue to be in the future.

[spookley]

all good points...

 

I agree that we will see a continued decline in prices...so that no one will be submitting

these books to CGC anymore...

 

Only reason to submit would be to complete your own 9.8 run...

 

 

 

[spookley]

I last submitted to CGC about a year ago.

 

I sent in 16 books and about 10 or 11 came back CGC 9.8...the others were 9.6

 

I bought these raw and factoring in CGC fees and postage...total cost was $26.67 a piece...

 

Not too bad for the 9.8's, but a loss for the 9.6's...

 

It was only "worth it" because I picked up several 9.8's for my run...

 

 

 

 

[KingOfRulers]

That era is struggling compared to what it once was at, but it's still not horrible. Still, seeing prices dive like that isn't great. I've had two copies of a BA ASM book, the same issue in 9.8, same page quality and everything. They sold about 9 months apart. The first sold for $450 or $475 (I don't recall exactly), and the second I had to price at $150 to get it to sell.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I sold a Batman #428 last year for $661.

 

I couldn't get $200 for one now.

 

:shrug:

 

 

[ShowcaseNE]

CGC books are going through a boom and bust cycle like most any normal cycle.

 

Once the excess books have dried up and the weakest sellers have been elimintated, the cycle will begin to tick up and strenghten.

 

The correct price for the most common of material will always start in the $40.00 to $50.00 range, this is a derived certainty based on the economics of slabbing and selling books.

 

If this turns out not to be a sustainable price support, then CGC will get put out of business.

 

Personally, I think the liklihood of this occurring is not particularly high...especially considering the supply and demand factors and the cycles that grading services for other types of collectibles, that can be slabbed, go through.

 

 

[Hamlet]

The question becomes--

 

How many people are willing to pay $50 for a slabbed common comic that they can find unslabbed in high grade (say 9.4-9.6) for $5?

 

Is that lack of one spine stress and a pretty plastic case going to be worth $45 to many people long term?

 

 

CGC books are going through a boom and bust cycle like most any normal cycle.

 

Once the excess books have dried up and the weakest sellers have been elimintated, the cycle will begin to tick up and strenghten.

 

The correct price for the most common of material will always start in the $40.00 to $50.00 range, this is a derived certainty based on the economics of slabbing and selling books.

 

If this turns out not to be a sustainable price support, then CGC will get put out of business.

 

Personally, I think the liklihood of this occurring is not particularly high...especially considering the supply and demand factors and the cycles that grading services for other types of collectibles, that can be slabbed, go through.

 

[Schmakt]

The question becomes--

 

How many people are willing to pay $50 for a slabbed common comic that they can find unslabbed in high grade (say 9.4-9.6) for $5?

 

Is that lack of one spine stress and a pretty plastic case going to be worth $45 to many people long term?

 

 

CGC books are going through a boom and bust cycle like most any normal cycle.

 

Once the excess books have dried up and the weakest sellers have been elimintated, the cycle will begin to tick up and strenghten.

 

The correct price for the most common of material will always start in the $40.00 to $50.00 range, this is a derived certainty based on the economics of slabbing and selling books.

 

If this turns out not to be a sustainable price support, then CGC will get put out of business.

 

Personally, I think the liklihood of this occurring is not particularly high...especially considering the supply and demand factors and the cycles that grading services for other types of collectibles, that can be slabbed, go through.

 

 

 

super-rarely, right?

I'd pay something like that for a 9.8+ copy of What If...? 28 or Daredevil 293...

but only due to sentimental value... and only if I didn't think I could find them for 25% of that price if I just waited...

[RockMyAmadeus]

CGC books are going through a boom and bust cycle like most any normal cycle.

 

Once the excess books have dried up and the weakest sellers have been elimintated, the cycle will begin to tick up and strenghten.

 

The correct price for the most common of material will always start in the $40.00 to $50.00 range, this is a derived certainty based on the economics of slabbing and selling books.

 

If this turns out not to be a sustainable price support, then CGC will get put out of business.

 

Personally, I think the liklihood of this occurring is not particularly high...especially considering the supply and demand factors and the cycles that grading services for other types of collectibles, that can be slabbed, go through.

 

 

Hi Dan

 

You should post more here.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The question becomes--

 

How many people are willing to pay $50 for a slabbed common comic that they can find unslabbed in high grade (say 9.4-9.6) for $5?

 

Is that lack of one spine stress and a pretty plastic case going to be worth $45 to many people long term?

 

That's the crux of the issue, innit?

 

I guess we'll find out...

 

 

 

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

A lot of these price reductions are plain and simple common sense.

 

Common books in HG should sell for common money.

 

Supply and Demand. CGC will be seeing a significant drop in CGC submissions from 1975-current now and over the next couple of years, how can they not. (New Books will do well for a short period of time in terms of CGC subs.)

 

There still hundreds and hundreds of HG comic book on most issues from the Copper Age-current out there.

 

Years ago I used to think it was special to submit FM Daredevil and JB X-men to CGC and gets 9.6/9.8, now most of those books are not even worth submitting unless you get 9.8 or 9.6’s on the keys. Now I realize just how many HG books from this period are out there, and will be for some time to come.

 

My advice keep waiting on the 1975to current books as they will continue to drop.

 

If you in the market for these books in HG:

 

GSX 1

Hulk 181

ASM 129

DD 158-191

X-men 94-143

ASM 152-current

 

Just some examples, please keep waiting they will keep coming down.

 

[blink]

SOT is one of the few that says it for what it is!

 

 

 

[NewWorldOrder]

SOT is one of the few that says it for what it is!

 

 

 

 

I usually hold back even with my last post.

[TFL-migration]

I cant see books like ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. going down in value anytime soon, if ever. The lower to mid grade 4.0 - 8.0 books may stay where they are. But I don't see them going down in value.

 

Obviously the higher grade books will grow a bit in value as time goes on.

I have read many, many posts on this board where someone has said they should have bought book X when they had a chance to still afford a nice higher grade example.

 

The books availability will of course, always play a vital roll in a books price as well.

A scarce book will almost always go up in value. Though ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. are not scare. They are key books in the Marvel University. Just my

[NewWorldOrder]

I cant see books like ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. going down in value anytime soon, if ever. The lower to mid grade 4.0 - 8.0 books may stay where they are. But I don't see them going down in value.

 

Obviously the higher grade books will grow a bit in value as time goes on.

I have read many, many posts on this board where someone has said they should have bought book X when they had a chance to still afford a nice higher grade example.

 

The books availability will of course, always play a vital roll in a books price as well.

A scarce book will almost always go up in value. Though ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. are not scare. They are key books in the Marvel University. Just my

 

They have been going down for a while now.

 

This year alone on ASM 129 I got 3 (9.6’s), 1 (9.8), and 2 (9.4’s).

 

Keys but very common.

 

No chance of these books going up anytime soon.

 

I am not saying they will drop dramatically, but they are dropping.

 

[mschmidt]

I cant see books like ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. going down in value anytime soon, if ever. The lower to mid grade 4.0 - 8.0 books may stay where they are. But I don't see them going down in value.

 

Obviously the higher grade books will grow a bit in value as time goes on.

I have read many, many posts on this board where someone has said they should have bought book X when they had a chance to still afford a nice higher grade example.

 

The books availability will of course, always play a vital roll in a books price as well.

A scarce book will almost always go up in value. Though ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. are not scare. They are key books in the Marvel University. Just my

 

They have been going down for a while now.

 

This year alone on ASM 129 I got 3 (9.6’s), 1 (9.8), and 2 (9.4’s).

 

Keys but very common.

 

No chance of these books going up anytime soon.

 

I am not saying they will drop dramatically, but they are dropping.

 

GPA on mid-grade ASM 129's (say 6.0 - 8.5) pretty much all went up this year compared to both 2008 and 2007 - same for 9.2's and 9.6's. 9.4's saw a tiny decrease from 2008, but are still up compared to 2007.

[NewWorldOrder]

I cant see books like ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. going down in value anytime soon, if ever. The lower to mid grade 4.0 - 8.0 books may stay where they are. But I don't see them going down in value.

 

Obviously the higher grade books will grow a bit in value as time goes on.

I have read many, many posts on this board where someone has said they should have bought book X when they had a chance to still afford a nice higher grade example.

 

The books availability will of course, always play a vital roll in a books price as well.

A scarce book will almost always go up in value. Though ASM 129, GSXM 1 etc. are not scare. They are key books in the Marvel University. Just my

 

They have been going down for a while now.

 

This year alone on ASM 129 I got 3 (9.6’s), 1 (9.8), and 2 (9.4’s).

 

Keys but very common.

 

No chance of these books going up anytime soon.

 

I am not saying they will drop dramatically, but they are dropping.

 

GPA on mid-grade ASM 129's (say 6.0 - 8.5) pretty much all went up this year compared to both 2008 and 2007 - same for 9.2's and 9.6's. 9.4's saw a tiny decrease from 2008, but are still up compared to 2007.

 

A lot of books will be up since 2007.

 

The book has been tougher and tougher to sell at consistent levels now for the past two years.

 

That book in 9.8 would sell for $12-15K a couple of years ago, and now it has NO chance of breaking 10K anymore.

 

All the sales I have seen and the ones that GPA doesn’t report tells me this book is heading toward.

 

Again it’s not a bad thing, there just are so many.

 

Hulk 181, GSX 1, and ASM 129 will continue to fall for many years, there are just too many of them available in HG, especially with more people pressing the older ones.

 

Just my post about how many I found this year in HG is enough proof.

 

It is one my favorite covers of all time though.