Still waiting for the Market Crash..

[VintageComics]

 

"Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves" (January 29, 2003)

 

I've been from Gypsy Tramp and Thiefland for many, many years because of that thread.

 

Another well documented FDQ exit by JC.

 

[delekkerste]

As one of the Pro-Crash people in those threads from the deep past, I have acknowledged and owned up to my mistakes regarding those old threads. Though, it would be foolish not to recognize where I and others were right as well.

 

When CGC first came on the scene, everything slabbed spiked to levels that would be unfathomable in most cases today. I sold a Wolverine #1 Limited Series CGC 8.5 for good money. And the buyer even came over to my apartment to pick it up! And anything that had a 9.8 label? Forget it, it could be the lamest Modern or Copper book, it would be worth 3 figures easy. And a "key" book, you know, a "key" like Peter Parker #1 in 9.8? I remember "danten311" trying to corner the market on eBay at over $500 a pop. Obviously, PRICES HAVE CRASHED there.

 

Even after things settled down, the "benchmarks" that we know today were SIMPLY NOT THE BENCHMARKS THEN. CGC 9.4 was a perfectly acceptable "blue chip" grade for Bronze and early Copper books for many years before it became 9.6 and then 9.8 for many books (I'm not a Silver guy, but I'm pretty sure a lot of what was once considered investment grade there isn't in today's market). Likewise, CGC 9.6 was perfectly acceptable for Copper and Moderns and fetched good prices. Don't say I'm wrong, because I had 300-400 slabs at one point and most of them were from those eras in those grades. I'll admit it, I paid 4-figures for ASM #121 in CGC 9.4. I paid more than $2K for ASM #122 in CGC 9.6. I paid 3 figures for Byrne X-Men books in 9.4. I even paid $150 for a DD #163 9.4 once (pretty horrific, but even that was dwarfed by the insane prices on Miller DD prices that prevailed before the movie came out - $200+ for a DD 183 CGC 9.6, anyone?) That was the market back then. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

I quit collecting slabs in 2004, by which point the average 9.8 copper/modern schlock had come down from triple digits to maybe $40. Obviously, it wouldn't be long before stuff started selling for $25, $20, $15...below the cost of slabbing. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

Remember when Danny (MutantKeys) sold his Copper X-Men run a year or two ago? Even up to that point quality 9.8 Copper was getting solid prices. Ask Danny what fraction of $$$ today it would take to recreate that run. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

Let's face it - much/most of the market (including some HG keys - Hulk #181 hasn't exactly been scaling new heights the past 5 years, right?) is somewhere between stagnant and bombed out from even when those crash threads were flying left and right. Of course, there has been a select, but ever-shrinking, pool of books that has thus far defied the skeptics and powered higher. Much of that has been in high grade Silver Age and certain Silver Age keys like AF15, which, admittedly, I never really collected or cared about.

 

I do not believe this hobby is in its infancy, more like it's "golden twilight". I do believe we are in a slow secular decline and that the peak real spending power this hobby's participants will ever collectively have probably peaked this decade ("Peak Comics Budget" for you "Peak Oil" guys). This does not mean we'll see a crash on everything that hasn't crashed already anytime soon, but I do firmly believe that this era of crack-press-resub, flip/spec, greed, ego and gluttony is not going to last forever. It never does.

 

So, yeah - I didn't get the Crash spot-on. But, I think I've managed to do OK for myself since 2003 anyway.

[VintageComics]

 

"For your eyes only, they said, but EVERYONE should read this (September 13, 2002)

 

 

That thread is chock full of internet tough guy goodness. Flexing muscles, bench press stats, wrestlers, wallet flexing, name calling, restored books, BSDs. I think even the midgets are present. Did anybody spot a donkey in that thread?

 

[FlyingDonut]

The overall general comic market has crashed, 90 percent of comics are worthless monetarily.

In order for there to be a crash, there first had to be a big run-up in prices. For the vast majority of what you're referring to, there was no crash because those books have never been worth anything. The fact that they're worthless today is not a crash, it's simply a continuation of the trend since they left the store.

 

Probably the only place they ever had any value was in the Guide. I remember Zaid posting on here several years ago about donating a bunch of books to charity because it was the only place he could get Guide for the books. So in my opinion there's nothing new here.

Of course action 1 or high grade cgc Marvel silver age are great,they are so great that they give an illusion that all comics are doing well when the case really is you can`t even get 10 cents to 99 cents for most comics. Imagine if Superman,Batman or the Marvel key silver age stuff wasn`t in high demand? You got a few books/characters who are keeping the interest alive in this hobby moneywise.

 

The important part about the post that started this thread is that the predictions of "The Great Crash of 03/ 04/ 05/ 06/ 07/ 08/ 09 '10" were about exactly those books. We don't spend a lot of time here arguing about the value of dollar books. We focus our attention on real, collectible comics. And it's those collectible books that were predicted to crash and burn over and over and over again.

 

It would be an act of hubris to not acknowledge that nothing goes up forever and that at some point logic dictates that there will be a correction/crash/call-it-what-you-will in the high end of the market. The humor we derive from the memory of the Great Prognosticators lies in the vehemence and certainty of their opinions. It was always RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER and we were just too stupid to realize it.

 

awesome. A new signature line.

[drbanner]

You know, there hasn't been a good Market Crash thread in a couple of years. Is Pressing the new Market Crash? .

 

I think so, and I do remember that pressing thread.

[scottish]

As one of the Pro-Crash people in those threads from the deep past, I have acknowledged and owned up to my mistakes regarding those old threads. Though, it would be foolish not to recognize where I and others were right as well.

 

When CGC first came on the scene, everything slabbed spiked to levels that would be unfathomable in most cases today. I sold a Wolverine #1 Limited Series CGC 8.5 for good money. And the buyer even came over to my apartment to pick it up! And anything that had a 9.8 label? Forget it, it could be the lamest Modern or Copper book, it would be worth 3 figures easy. And a "key" book, you know, a "key" like Peter Parker #1 in 9.8? I remember "danten311" trying to corner the market on eBay at over $500 a pop. Obviously, PRICES HAVE CRASHED there.

 

Even after things settled down, the "benchmarks" that we know today were SIMPLY NOT THE BENCHMARKS THEN. CGC 9.4 was a perfectly acceptable "blue chip" grade for Bronze and early Copper books for many years before it became 9.6 and then 9.8 for many books (I'm not a Silver guy, but I'm pretty sure a lot of what was once considered investment grade there isn't in today's market). Likewise, CGC 9.6 was perfectly acceptable for Copper and Moderns and fetched good prices. Don't say I'm wrong, because I had 300-400 slabs at one point and most of them were from those eras in those grades. I'll admit it, I paid 4-figures for ASM #121 in CGC 9.4. I paid more than $2K for ASM #122 in CGC 9.6. I paid 3 figures for Byrne X-Men books in 9.4. I even paid $150 for a DD #163 9.4 once (pretty horrific, but even that was dwarfed by the insane prices on Miller DD prices that prevailed before the movie came out - $200+ for a DD 183 CGC 9.6, anyone?) That was the market back then. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

I quit collecting slabs in 2004, by which point the average 9.8 copper/modern schlock had come down from triple digits to maybe $40. Obviously, it wouldn't be long before stuff started selling for $25, $20, $15...below the cost of slabbing. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

Remember when Danny (MutantKeys) sold his Copper X-Men run a year or two ago? Even up to that point quality 9.8 Copper was getting solid prices. Ask Danny what fraction of $$$ today it would take to recreate that run. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

Let's face it - much/most of the market (including some HG keys - Hulk #181 hasn't exactly been scaling new heights the past 5 years, right?) is somewhere between stagnant and bombed out from even when those crash threads were flying left and right. Of course, there has been a select, but ever-shrinking, pool of books that has thus far defied the skeptics and powered higher. Much of that has been in high grade Silver Age and certain Silver Age keys like AF15, which, admittedly, I never really collected or cared about.

 

I do not believe this hobby is in its infancy, more like it's "golden twilight". I do believe we are in a slow secular decline and that the peak real spending power this hobby's participants will ever collectively have probably peaked this decade ("Peak Comics Budget" for you "Peak Oil" guys). This does not mean we'll see a crash on everything that hasn't crashed already anytime soon, but I do firmly believe that this era of crack-press-resub, flip/spec, greed, ego and gluttony is not going to last forever. It never does.

 

So, yeah - I didn't get the Crash spot-on. But, I think I've managed to do OK for myself since 2003 anyway.

 

Yep. I think the most distinct price difference I noticed in selling my slabs was in the SSOCs and What Ifs (sure not super sought after titles, but they still sell).

 

The most glaring difference I saw was Savage Sword of Conan Annual #1 9.8 White pages. I bought it off a board member via BIN through eBay (Danny I believe) for 275.00 - great price at the time (2 years ago I think?). It sold for all of $69.10.

[drbanner]

"Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves" (January 29, 2003)

I've been from Gypsy Tramp and Thiefland for many, many years because of that thread.

 

"CI, try therapy. You've got some serious issues... and I'm not talking Byrne X-Men."

 

Poor, poor Illiterati...gone but not forgotten.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

ok not much as a crash but you still have people who have been holding on to books for over 20 to 30 years then try to go sell and then find out wow thats all I can get for them!

I don`t know how many times I have to tell people thats all I can offer them for thier books and most of the time they would have to pay me to take them. A lot of people see the hype Action 1,Detective 27 and now New Mutants 98 and think wow my comics must be worth something as well and how much are you gonna give me for them!

But are we saying it is a market crash or a market correction?

 

With the horrible economic situation around the globe for the past few years, it just appears like many of the hoards that were safely tucked away came out of hiding because:

 

1) People lost their jobs and needed immediate cash.

2) Owners saw the comic market not losing value as quick as cash-based markets and took advantage of the redirected investing by finally dumping their books.

 

It's rare any of the books from the 80s and 90s were scarce, yet sellers were touting 9.8s as "Grab it now - you won't be seeing many 9.8s of this ever" and folks drank from that Kool Aid. SURPRISE!

I love your translation, you have a good way of stating things. (thumbs u

[the blob]

The most glaring difference I saw was Savage Sword of Conan Annual #1 9.8 White pages. I bought it off a board member via BIN through eBay (Danny I believe) for 275.00 - great price at the time (2 years ago I think?). It sold for all of $69.10.

----

 

and whose to say you wouldn't have done vastly better in a fixed price (with best offer option) format sale than rolling the dice on an auction? auctions are tricky.

[Ghost Town]

A few years ago I'm sure some people remember the whole market crash thread and everyone was like "The market is going to crash!" 5 years later,I'm still waiting...

I used to think I spent too much money on comics and should be putting more in the stock market. In retrospect, I wish I was even more aggressive with my comic purchases.

[HouseofComics.Com]

I'm not talking about moderns, I'm talking about 50s, 60s and 70s books.

 

 

Don't know if you've noticed, but Mr. Overstreet has been reducing the price on a bunch of titles. It's only over the last year that I've started to notice this creeping reduction in prices on a wide variety of titles.

 

About time. 99% of moderns lose their value completely as soon as they leave the store.

 

I think they need to adjust the prices on lots of books in overstreet.

 

I honestly think there will be a huge crash in prices in the next ten years. Not enough people entering the hobby to sustain it.

[tth2]

As one of the Pro-Crash people in those threads from the deep past, I have acknowledged and owned up to my mistakes regarding those old threads. Though, it would be foolish not to recognize where I and others were right as well.

 

When CGC first came on the scene, everything slabbed spiked to levels that would be unfathomable in most cases today. I sold a Wolverine #1 Limited Series CGC 8.5 for good money. And the buyer even came over to my apartment to pick it up! And anything that had a 9.8 label? Forget it, it could be the lamest Modern or Copper book, it would be worth 3 figures easy. And a "key" book, you know, a "key" like Peter Parker #1 in 9.8? I remember "danten311" trying to corner the market on eBay at over $500 a pop. Obviously, PRICES HAVE CRASHED there.

 

Even after things settled down, the "benchmarks" that we know today were SIMPLY NOT THE BENCHMARKS THEN. CGC 9.4 was a perfectly acceptable "blue chip" grade for Bronze and early Copper books for many years before it became 9.6 and then 9.8 for many books (I'm not a Silver guy, but I'm pretty sure a lot of what was once considered investment grade there isn't in today's market). Likewise, CGC 9.6 was perfectly acceptable for Copper and Moderns and fetched good prices. Don't say I'm wrong, because I had 300-400 slabs at one point and most of them were from those eras in those grades. I'll admit it, I paid 4-figures for ASM #121 in CGC 9.4. I paid more than $2K for ASM #122 in CGC 9.6. I paid 3 figures for Byrne X-Men books in 9.4. I even paid $150 for a DD #163 9.4 once (pretty horrific, but even that was dwarfed by the insane prices on Miller DD prices that prevailed before the movie came out - $200+ for a DD 183 CGC 9.6, anyone?) That was the market back then. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

I quit collecting slabs in 2004, by which point the average 9.8 copper/modern schlock had come down from triple digits to maybe $40. Obviously, it wouldn't be long before stuff started selling for $25, $20, $15...below the cost of slabbing. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

 

Remember when Danny (MutantKeys) sold his Copper X-Men run a year or two ago? Even up to that point quality 9.8 Copper was getting solid prices. Ask Danny what fraction of $$$ today it would take to recreate that run. THOSE PRICES HAVE CRASHED.

Okay, those prices have indeed crashed, because they spiked up to stupid levels and then have corrected big time. But I would argue that it was absurd for them to ever spike up to the levels that they did. People who were chasing and paying up had no clue about the hobby and clearly had no understanding as to just how many copies of books from the late 1970s and onwards existed in mint condition in dealer and collector inventory, just waiting to flood the market at the first sign of a price bump.

 

They were the equivalent of dot coms with no earnings and no revenue. They were a crash only in the sense that prices got up to where they should never have been, and therefore a correction was inevitable.

 

The true collectibles have retained their value and for the most part continued to appreciate. However, I do have to admit that the market is kind of reminding me of the Nifty Fifty stock market phenomenon of the 1970s as everything gets channeled into the blue chips driving them up to unsustainable levels as well. The high end market has definitely gotten frothy and I've been very much a net seller recently and over the past few years.

 

[tth2]

The overall general comic market has crashed, 90 percent of comics are worthless monetarily.

In order for there to be a crash, there first had to be a big run-up in prices. For the vast majority of what you're referring to, there was no crash because those books have never been worth anything. The fact that they're worthless today is not a crash, it's simply a continuation of the trend since they left the store.

 

Probably the only place they ever had any value was in the Guide. I remember Zaid posting on here several years ago about donating a bunch of books to charity because it was the only place he could get Guide for the books. So in my opinion there's nothing new here.

Of course action 1 or high grade cgc Marvel silver age are great,they are so great that they give an illusion that all comics are doing well when the case really is you can`t even get 10 cents to 99 cents for most comics. Imagine if Superman,Batman or the Marvel key silver age stuff wasn`t in high demand? You got a few books/characters who are keeping the interest alive in this hobby moneywise.

 

The important part about the post that started this thread is that the predictions of "The Great Crash of 03/ 04/ 05/ 06/ 07/ 08/ 09 '10" were about exactly those books. We don't spend a lot of time here arguing about the value of dollar books. We focus our attention on real, collectible comics. And it's those collectible books that were predicted to crash and burn over and over and over again.

 

It would be an act of hubris to not acknowledge that nothing goes up forever and that at some point logic dictates that there will be a correction/crash/call-it-what-you-will in the high end of the market. The humor we derive from the memory of the Great Prognosticators lies in the vehemence and certainty of their opinions. It was always RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER and we were just too stupid to realize it.

[c-mack]

"Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves" (January 29, 2003)

 

 

 

 

best thread ever!!!!!!!

[bug33fouf]

all great books will always increase.

but, moderns are the ones that adjust.

once a new book comes out. everyone has to have the first cgc 9.8. they will pay anything for that book. wait a couple of months and u can find that same book for 20 bucks..

 

I buy what I like. when the price is right....

 

[KING of JOKERS]

There are far safer investment vehicles than comics or collectibles in general.

But if you must cause you love the stuff like me, safest bets for me have been sticking to GA and 'early SA' and buying high grade.

 

In every hobby, it's mostly always the older stuff in high grade that will always have the best chance to appreciate or at least maintain its value in the long run.

 

It amazes me why people would spend any money (other than for entertainment purposes) on items manufactured in the last 20-30 years in any hobby, no matter how high the grade.

[tth2]

In every hobby, it's mostly always the older stuff in high grade that will always have the best chance to appreciate or at least maintain its value in the long run.

(thumbs u

 

It amazes me why people would spend any money (other than for entertainment purposes) on items manufactured in the last 20-30 years in any hobby, no matter how high the grade.

I agree with this too, although rather than a hard and fast rule on number of years, to me it's more about when a collective light bulb went on that the item should be collected and hoarded and preserved.

 

For comics, that was around 1965 or 1966.

[14 of spades]

insane prices on Miller DD prices that prevailed before the movie came out - $200+ for a DD 183 CGC 9.6, anyone?)

 

$251. July 2002 IIRC.

 

I remember that one specifically because my raw 9.4 cost me only $2 to buy.

 

The Daredevil movie bubble was the worst of the worst of speculation mania. Books were driven up BEFORE you would have expected them to get the movie bump, because folks were speculating on the speculation for the movie bump. Hence, some 9 months before the movie, DD were scathing hot. Gold (!), Silver, Bronze, Modern, everything.

 

Of course, once the movie came out, all the speculation had already happened, and the market slowed to a whimper.

[14 of spades]

As someone who resides on the "crash" side of crash theory, I still consider the following quite amusing.

 

The following is the 5th post in the "Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?" thread:

 

08/06/04 10:12 AM

Not sure that it will be a crash but I expect a major correction anytime now. Things have been skyrocketing for about a year now and nothing goes up forever. Besides - look at the census. Right now, Spidey due to the movie is the hottest thing going. There are 20 issues graded in the 9.0 or better slot for #1, 32 issues 9.0 or better for #3, 23 issues for the very "rare" #11, and 85 issues for #14! Now a 9.0 #1 goes for over $20,000 - how many folks are in this for the long haul rgularly buying comics costing over $2000 a piece? I think supply, demand , and nutty pricing are about to have a train wreck. And I still have a huge collection and am still buying good books - like that FF 53 9.4 from you - but I think it would be wise to be conservative. I see a lot of Spidey 14 9.4s around for instance being offered at $8000 to $10,000 - but I don't see a lot of takers. CGC has only been around like 4 years now and there are far more high grade issues around than I believed there were. So unless you have the money to blow or unless the hobby is really expanding to bring the true believers, I would be careful.

 

Can someone update this with December 2009 numbers? You could literally re-write the same paragraph VERBATIM, and it would now be a current post.

[rob_react]

 

awesome. A new signature line.