Official Crash Watch '04 Thread

[jeff2004]

I don't think the stock marker has any correlation with the comic book market. If there is a big economic downturn though it could affect both markets

[Warlord]

The Crash Watch for April!

 

Stats:

11,6000 CGC auctions

4,200 auctions received 0 bids

700 auctions were Reserve Not Met

800 auctions ended with BIN

700 auctions ended with Reserve Met

$1.5M total value of comics sold (including Superman #1 from JP and some big GA sales from Heritage)

[blowout]

And all that tells us what?

[drbanner]

Whatcha think about these numbers 'sheet? Your index has now crossed the 2-year timeline and we need an update!!

[AlexH]

The Crash Watch for April!

 

Stats:

11,6000 CGC auctions

4,200 auctions received 0 bids

700 auctions were Reserve Not Met

800 auctions ended with BIN

700 auctions ended with Reserve Met

$1.5M total value of comics sold (including Superman #1 from JP and some big GA sales from Heritage)

 

Does this mean that 7,400 auctions had buyers?

[thecomicsheet]

Whatcha think about these numbers 'sheet? Your index has now crossed the 2-year timeline and we need an update!!

 

I'll get an update of my indexes done this evening. My database did cross the 2 year mark as of May 1.

 

eBay total sales have remained remarkably stable for the last few months. Each week we get about 1,500 auctions with bids and about $225,000 total on those bids. About 8 percent of those auctions are 'reserve not met'.

 

The Heritage 'live' auctions cause a big jump in the eBay stats in the week they happen. I don't have my data in front of me but I think the last Heritage auction added maybe 300 auctions to eBay auctions and caused the weekly dollar total to jump to about $800,000.

[Warlord]

The Crash Watch for April!

 

Stats:

11,6000 CGC auctions

4,200 auctions received 0 bids

700 auctions were Reserve Not Met

800 auctions ended with BIN

700 auctions ended with Reserve Met

$1.5M total value of comics sold (including Superman #1 from JP and some big GA sales from Heritage)

 

Does this mean that 7,400 auctions had buyers?

 

I'd say that the Reserve Not Met auctions had bidders, not buyers. Sooo

11,600 auctions -

(4,200 with 0 bids + 700 Reserve Not Met) = 6,700 auctions resulted in a sale

[Warlord]

And all that tells us what?

 

That I've amazingly kept compiling these numbers for four months straight?

[thecomicsheet]

Whatcha think about these numbers 'sheet? Your index has now crossed the 2-year timeline and we need an update!!

 

I'll get an update of my indexes done this evening. My database did cross the 2 year mark as of May 1.

 

eBay total sales have remained remarkably stable for the last few months. Each week we get about 1,500 auctions with bids and about $225,000 total on those bids. About 8 percent of those auctions are 'reserve not met'.

 

The Heritage 'live' auctions cause a big jump in the eBay stats in the week they happen. I don't have my data in front of me but I think the last Heritage auction added maybe 300 auctions to eBay auctions and caused the weekly dollar total to jump to about $800,000.

 

OK, Got the Low Priced Index updated. I'll do the Mid Priced Index tomorrow.

Click Here to see the indexes.

 

The Low Price Index at least doesn't show evidence of the crash of '04. It's been steadily rising for the last year.

[Aman619]

thats impossible. Go recheck your nubers!!!

I had it on good authority that it was definitely to occur in early 2004!!!

You musta missed it!!!

[blowout]

I had it on good authority that it was definitely to occur in early 2004!!!

 

[joe_collector]

I had it on good authority that it was definitely to occur in early 2004!!!

 

 

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

I half-jested about 2004, but I'd like to know who stamped it 100% to be "early".

[drbanner]

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

 

[joe_collector]

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

 

 

I meant the stating 100% that it would be EARLY 2004! Learn to read, it will help us all.

[goldust40]

Yeah, what insufficiently_thoughtful_person said that?

 

 

 

I meant the stating 100% that it would be EARLY 2004! Learn to read, it will help us all.

 

You're splitting hairs, JC!!

[joe_collector]

You're splitting hairs, JC!!

 

Did you read my original post?

 

I was poking fun at myself with the message by challenging the erroneous "early 2004" (I said 2004 dammit ), something that obviously escapes the low-brows on here.

 

[goldust40]

You're splitting hairs, JC!!

 

Did you read my original post?

 

I was poking fun at myself with the message by challenging the erroneous "early 2004" (I said 2004 dammit ), something that obviously escapes the low-brows on here.

 

 

Nah, I gathered you were being self-deprecating. Anyway, even Nostradamus's predictions weren't that precise.

[delekkerste]

To the best of my knowledge, J_C never said "early 2004". However, Doc B. and some others were so giddy about getting J_C riled up once the calendar switched over from 2003 to 2004 that suddenly his 2004 prediction turned into Jan. 2004 and then March 2004, etc.

 

My view is that the market could top at any time, though I suspect it could hold out until real estate turns down in a big way, as I expect sometime in the 2005/2006 timeframe. J_C may even ultimately be proven right that 2004 sees the top, though recognition that a top is firmly in place probably will take more than a year to recognize, as people will undoubtedly require a good amount of time to pass by without prices scaling new heights before conceding that the market has run out of steam.

 

Also, though I applaud these indices that thecomicsheet is calculating, I know from first-hand experience that indices can be misleading. For example, the average stock topped in 1998, more than a year before the major stock indices found their peak. An index may not capture everything that is going on in the marketplace. To relate this to comics, I was a little surprised to see that you can find 9.8 Moderns like JLA/Avengers #1 selling (or even NOT selling) for under $20. It seems as though the "hot brand new 9.8 Modern" market has all but collapsed (doesn't bode well for WizardFirst's 9.5s, which cost more than twice what CGC 9.8s are going for nowadays), based on this and sales for other recent books like 1602, etc. If there was an index that tracked this segment of the market, I'm sure it would be at all-time lows.

[FlyingDonut]

Crashing CGC Market Books:

1. Post 1966

2. 9.6 or below

3. Relatively "common"

4. Not by any stretch of the imagination "keys"

 

Get your money OUT of these books right now.

 

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe, be willing to quickly sell at a loss if it happens, and not be emotionally invested in your books. I'm going to take a bath on my CGC 9.8 FFs, but I don't care. Everything else I'm moving is going to cover it.

[joe_collector]

I would disagree with both Joe and Gene in that you can still make a lot of money "investing" in comics, but you have to have a short term investment timeframe.

 

You call it "short-term investing", while I call it "part-time dealing".

 

Conventional "investments" are where you slap your rmoney in, look for consistent returns, and every once in a while, transfer or diversify. It's not a daily job of buying and selling, as that would make you a broker/day trader in the stock market, and a dealer in the world of comics.

 

You are correct there is money to be made, but it also entails some hard work, time and dedication, things these "buy it, sit on it, and reap the profits" newbie speculators DO NOT want to do.