• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Official Crash Watch '04 Thread

Started by Warlord,

104 posts in this topic

Warlord

Warlord

Posted
Posted

This is the Official Crash Watch '04 Thread! We all know that the crash is looming. But what are the impending signs? What metrics will we use to measure the crash? How will we know when it has arrived, or when it has passed?

 

For one easy approach, I'll try tracking eBay sales.

My rough stats for January 2004, in round numbers:

 

13,150 CGC auctions

 

On the negative side:

5,400 auctions received 0 bids

871 auctions were Reserve Not Met

 

On the plus side:

900 auctions ended with BIN

900 auctions ended with Reserve Met

 

What issues or titles should be tracked for specific crash measurements???

Link to comment
Share on other sites
drbanner

drbanner

Posted
Posted
Looks like it already happened - in the summer of 2002!

 

Yup...which makes the recent record-breaking bronze age sales quite curious?? 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

I think we need a review of "Donut's 4 (5?) Basic Principles of Crashology" for the newbies!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
thecomicsheet

thecomicsheet

Posted
Posted
This is the Official Crash Watch '04 Thread! We all know that the crash is looming. But what are the impending signs? What metrics will we use to measure the crash? How will we know when it has arrived, or when it has passed?

 

For one easy approach, I'll try tracking eBay sales.

My rough stats for January 2004, in round numbers:

 

13,150 CGC auctions

 

On the negative side:

5,400 auctions received 0 bids

871 auctions were Reserve Not Met

 

On the plus side:

900 auctions ended with BIN

900 auctions ended with Reserve Met

 

What issues or titles should be tracked for specific crash measurements???

 

The percentage of CGC auctions not receiving bids has held fairly steady at around 40 percent for nearly 2 years. This hasn't varied by more than a handful of percentage points at any time. So January was fairly typical.

 

Also in a typical month the number of reserve auctions ending with reserves met is roughly equal to the number with reserves not met.

 

By the measure of numbers of auctions receiving bids each week, the last two weeks have seen a huge jump in volume. In December/January we had fallen to a low of 1100-1200 auctions per week. Now suddenly in the last 2 weeks we are up to 1900 auctions per week. You have to go back many months to see that kind of volume on a regular basis.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Warlord

Warlord

Posted
  • Author
Posted

OK, here's another perspective. Who's doing the buying? Here's who I think were the BSDs in January, and a ballpark on their total purchases:


  • simon_biz $11K
  • mamanook $11K
  • ast11@shaw.ca $13K
  • catr20 $15K
  • ticketpalace $17K
  • 123seller_collector (collection) $21K
  • jp-themint (Action #24 MH) $24K

 

And the dealers supplying the merchandise and their rough sales...


  • midnightshadow17 $10K
  • eides_entertainment $14K
  • spartanxx $15K
  • starspan $16K
  • grimstarman $17K
  • cardman2020 (collection) $21K
  • neatstuffcollectibles $22K
  • comgeek $23K
  • ejaenter $26K
  • cards-n-comics (MH Action #24) $28K

Link to comment
Share on other sites
acesilver

acesilver

Posted
Posted
very interesting stuff there............... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

do they have a HIGH index?? i didn't see one..........

 

Thanks for the link. I didn't either. If there is I'd be very interested in the results and what pool of books they'd pick.

 

I can understand the heavy Marvel emphasis. But it still doesn't make sense to me why two Batman titles for both low and mid grade would be picked at the exclusion of any additional DC titles. confused-smiley-013.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
thecomicsheet

thecomicsheet

Posted
Posted

ooo.gifThis just in! Crash of '04 delayed for a few weeks! ooo.gif

 

I've updated my Mid Price index and posted it on my website at:

 

CGC Indexes

 

(I haven't updated the Low priced index yet. Scroll down past it to the Mid priced index for the latest info.)

 

The Mid Price index hit an all time high last week and the 3 week moving average of the index hit an all time high this week.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
thecomicsheet

thecomicsheet

Posted
Posted
very interesting stuff there............... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

do they have a HIGH index?? i didn't see one..........

 

I'm working on a high price index, but it is much harder because higher price books don't trade very often at a specific grade. I'm trying to put together an index that combines an average of 2 or 3 grades for 30 popular high price issues and weights each issue about the same in the index. By 'weighting' the index I mean multiplying or dividing the price of each issue in the index so they initially contribute about the same amount to the index. For example assume I decided to 'weight' each issue so their initial value was 5,000. For a $1,000 issue I would apply a 'weight' factor of 5, for a $20,000 issue I would apply a 'weight' factor of 1/4.

 

The Low Price index is generally for issues trading in the sub $100 range. The Mid Price index is for issues generally trading for $200 to $500. Both of these indexes are simple sums of the prices the issues last traded for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
thecomicsheet

thecomicsheet

Posted
Posted
very cool info!

 

Out of curiosity, how did you compile this info--do you have a seller tool that does this?

 

I've been selling an Excel spreadsheet of auction information for about a year and a half now at my website. I also use this as a base of information for my weekly 'Eye on eBay' column in the Comics Buyers Guide.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
drbanner

drbanner

Posted
Posted
ooo.gifThis just in! Crash of '04 delayed for a few weeks! ooo.gif

 

I've updated my Mid Price index and posted it on my website at:

 

CGC Indexes

 

(I haven't updated the Low priced index yet. Scroll down past it to the Mid priced index for the latest info.)

 

The Mid Price index hit an all time high last week and the 3 week moving average of the index hit an all time high this week.

 

This is interesting, "solid copies of key books" have now exceeded what they were before TGC of '02!?!? Looking at GPA data for many of these books, I've noticed quite a bit of upward movement lately in the 8.0-9.2 range, and a bit of downward movement of 9.4/9.6/9.8 copies of some of the same books.

 

Long live the comic-book collector!! 893applaud-thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Warlord

Warlord

Posted
  • Author
Posted
ooo.gifThis just in! Crash of '04 delayed for a few weeks! ooo.gif

 

I've updated my Mid Price index and posted it on my website at:

 

CGC Indexes

 

(I haven't updated the Low priced index yet. Scroll down past it to the Mid priced index for the latest info.)

 

The Mid Price index hit an all time high last week and the 3 week moving average of the index hit an all time high this week.

 

Now hook up the Census info for those issues to show how the population of 9.4 and up grades has INCREASED while the prices were bouncing around. That'd be handy!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go to topic listing