Stop the Insanity!!!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

or otherwise entitled: "Horror Tales from the 'Link":

 

Within a day, FF 2 (9.2 $11,500), FF 4 (9.2 $11,500), FF 12 (9.2 $11,000!!!) have all sold on Comiclink.

 

My theory; this recent run-up is being fueled my a single investor. In my opinion, the timing denotes a lone gunman at work (with an awful lot of cash to spread around). This individual is also sticking to the earliest Marvel pieces, and is willing to pay a ridiculous amount for them.

 

So, the market is feeling the effects of this surge, but don't think its because there is a whole lot of money coming in via a number of new collectors/investors.

[blowout]

So, the market is feeling the effects of this surge, but don't think its because there is a whole lot of money coming in via a number of new collectors/investors.

 

Do you know this for sure, or is it just speculation on your part?

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Do you know this for sure, or is it just speculation on your part?

 

Its the conspiracy theorist in me getting out the hand cream and enjoying a little mental masturbation.

 

In other words, I have no facts, only conjecture.

[Filter81]

Whoever is buying these books the taste sure seems to be the same.. High grade CGC unrestored early Silver age marvels only. I wouldn't be surprised if it were only 2 or 3 people. Despite the record highs that have been seen on comiclink in the past few weeks, anything restored, anything unrestored at CGC 8.0 and below, and all non-silver age books seem to be selling on comiclink at or below eBay prices. Its just a very specific type of book hitting these record prices, so I wouldn't be surprised if its just a couple people buying them.

[comicmankev]

These may be insane prices to us, and we will mostly NEVER pay those prices, it doesnt stop others?

 

It's a collectible thing all round. One word - demand?

 

If someone wants a book that is rare, then what would the argument be for NOT buying these items?

 

Heres some of the answers that I suspect forum members may give:

 

Because its not worth it!

Theres got to be more out there!

It's just a comic for christs sake!!

buy the book not the label!

and many, many more

 

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

Just another theory of course, but theres both sides to a story!

[joe_collector]

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

What are you talking about?

 

Let's take 50 of the most valuable Silver Age keys, check the Census numbers on 9.X copies today, and then let's keep checking them through the next few years.

 

If the majority stay locked at a Zero Increase, you win, but if the majority have Census Growth, I win.

 

Name your wager.

[comicmankev]

I'm not saying it won't happen JC, far from it. But I'm just saying it may not, as much as it may do!

 

These crazy prices (to us) are not good for the majority of collectors, but it doesnt mean they are not 'worth that amount'?

 

I didnt quite hear your argument anyway JC, what would you say to someone who bought a $19k TTA27?

[joe_collector]

I'm not saying it won't happen JC, far from it. But I'm just saying it may not, as much as it may do!

 

I don't feel the same way, and as has been proven with other graded collectibles, betting investment capital against the Census remaining static is a fool's game.

[joe_collector]

I didnt quite hear your argument anyway JC, what would you say to someone who bought a $19k TTA27?

 

If the buyer is a collector who wants the book for its own intrinsic value, then spend what you want.

 

If the buyer is an investor/speculator hoping to get rich buying Silver Age keys at nosebleed prices, then may God be with him.

[FlyingDonut]

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

What are you talking about?

 

Let's take 50 of the most valuable Silver Age keys, check the Census numbers on 9.X copies today, and then let's keep checking them through the next few years.

 

If the majority stay locked at a Zero Increase, you win, but if the majority have Census Growth, I win.

 

I don't think you'll be correct on non key books. There may be more 9.xx copies of Fantastic Four 1 showing up, for example (although I doubt it), but I don't think there will be more 9.xx copies of Fantastic Four 8 (just as an example). But this would be an excellent excercise.

Name your wager.

[sfilosa]

And now the JIM #83's in VF/NM are sold.

 

Both of those books were sold for $3K less than the pending price in the past two months.

 

 

 

[Aman619]

I tend to agree with you here on the books you listed. These 9.2 FFs sold at or around the prices Storms recently got for his copies. So these sales solidified those price levels, which on the 4 and 5 were in line with the super high 25k numbers of the 9.4s

 

Also these were collectors issues, not number 1s.

Id sooner wager that the 122K AF15 was an outsider tempted to buy the Best comic book investment available.. That person wouldnt buy a "First Hulk Crossover FF12" a year after the movie bombed.

[comicmankev]

If it's for investment, there is no form of investing that is 100% secure, am I right? You may know a lot about shares, or currency or whatever, but there are no guarantees. Comics have become investment material whether we like it or not, that is why these insane prices are getting realised.

 

Just because us avid collectors don't beleive in investing in them; someone does, and they feel it's worth the risk

 

I couldnt tell you myself, it's a bit like betting. But some people are obviously willing to take the gamble, and what I was trying to say was, the WILL win if the census drastically rises in the LG but doesnt change THAT MUCH in the HG.

 

Lets take that TMNT #1, we know it was limited to 300 print, lots got chewed and abused, like they were supposed to, by none other than kids! Now, whose to say that the 9.0 on the census is NOT the only one? It's highly likely that there are more, but nobody ACTUALLY knows? So to some, it may be worth the gamble?

 

 

[Marvelous]

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

What are you talking about?

 

Let's take 50 of the most valuable Silver Age keys, check the Census numbers on 9.X copies today, and then let's keep checking them through the next few years.

 

If the majority stay locked at a Zero Increase, you win, but if the majority have Census Growth, I win.

 

Name your wager.

 

Isn't the following the real question. Will the census grow to such an amount that it will have a negative effect on the value of comics? I think everyone agrees the census will grow. Census numbers doubling or tripling or more over the next 10-15 years isn't a cause for worry IMHO. Some of us just don't think it will grow at such a rate as to have a negative effect on comic values because supply will not out grow demand. There might be a few exceptions to the rule, but not many in my opinion.

[Aman619]

Kev. I like your upbeat comments in ths whole crash bizness. The truth is none of us know for sure, Only some od us are CONVINCED they know for sure whats going to happen.

 

but two points: JC compars what we are experiencing with slabbled comics to what DID happen to sportscards. It took off like a skyrocket - - and ended badly. So there is a precedent for his comments. likewise Gene with the Stock Market (and Tulips)

 

TNMT is pretty scarce...but dnt trust the census on it just yet. As hard as it was to fond when it came out, certainly it appears well into a collecting/preserving/speculating mindset and a "bunch" of copies certainly survived in pretty nice shape. So far, until some heat happens, theres not much of an incentive to get them slabbed.....

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

That person wouldnt buy a "First Hulk Crossover FF12" a year after the movie bombed.

 

I can think of 10 reasons why someone would want to buy this book, and NONE of them have anything to do with the Hulk-hype.

 

You'll notice that all of the FFs I mentioned showed up as Sale Pending within a few hours...the chance that there would be two seperate collectors paying out record dollar for these books, all within a very limited timeframe? My guess is that its a lot less then one uber-investor/collector doing so.

 

And yes, my suspicion is that it was the same fellow who bit the bullet on the AF 15.

 

 

[Aman619]

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

What are you talking about?

 

Let's take 50 of the most valuable Silver Age keys, check the Census numbers on 9.X copies today, and then let's keep checking them through the next few years.

 

If the majority stay locked at a Zero Increase, you win, but if the majority have Census Growth, I win.

 

Name your wager.

 

Isn't the following the real question. Will the census grow to such an amount that it will have a negative effect on the value of comics? I think everyone agrees the census will grow. Census numbers doubling or tripling or more over the next 10-15 years isn't a cause for worry IMHO. Some of us just don't think it will grow at such a rate as to have a negative effect on comic values because supply will not out grow demand. There might be a few exceptions to the rule, but not many in my opinion.

 

you really dont think TRIPLING the census across the board will affect prices? Of course it will.

 

The 'trick' to buying today is to use one's best judgement to buy only those comics that WON'T triple!! Tripling the supply as the collector base continues to dwindle HAS to affect prices on those incerasingly plentiful issues..

[drbanner]

And yes, my suspicion is that it was the same fellow who bit the bullet on the AF 15.

 

hammer?

 

Coming soon to ebay - the first "NM/MT" copy of AF 15 to ever hit the market! Sorry guys, no thrill or joy-bidders, and of course your identity will be protected via a private auction...

[Marvelous]

But the fact of the matter is, who says there will be more? We do??? From statistics??? Using Math??? We cannot guarantee that there will be more of these turn up, and if we went another 5 or 10 years down the line, and the numbers DIDNT rise on the census, what would they sell for then?

 

What are you talking about?

 

Let's take 50 of the most valuable Silver Age keys, check the Census numbers on 9.X copies today, and then let's keep checking them through the next few years.

 

If the majority stay locked at a Zero Increase, you win, but if the majority have Census Growth, I win.

 

Name your wager.

 

Isn't the following the real question. Will the census grow to such an amount that it will have a negative effect on the value of comics? I think everyone agrees the census will grow. Census numbers doubling or tripling or more over the next 10-15 years isn't a cause for worry IMHO. Some of us just don't think it will grow at such a rate as to have a negative effect on comic values because supply will not out grow demand. There might be a few exceptions to the rule, but not many in my opinion.

 

you really dont think TRIPLING the census across the board will affect prices? Of course it will.

 

If it triples in the next 2-3 years yes. If it takes 10-15 years no, or at least not drastically. I am sure there is a high percentage of raw copies out there that haven't been graded yet. I personally don't see the census tripling, but if it does I am not too worried about it if it happens over a period of a decade or more.

 

The 'trick' to buying today is to use one's best judgement to buy only those comics that WON'T triple!!

 

I agree. I am not investing in any new comics like Ultimate Spider-man for that same reason.

 

Tripling the supply as the collector base continues to dwindle HAS to affect prices on those incerasingly plentiful issues..

 

I am one of those people that don't think it is dwindling, but is instead is holding steady or even expanding a little and will continue to expand unless DC and/or Marvel go out of business.

 

 

[Aman619]

That person wouldnt buy a "First Hulk Crossover FF12" a year after the movie bombed.

 

I can think of 10 reasons why someone would want to buy this book, and NONE of them have anything to do with the Hulk-hype.

 

You'll notice that all of the FFs I mentioned showed up as Sale Pending within a few hours...the chance that there would be two seperate collectors paying out record dollar for these books, all within a very limited timeframe? My guess is that its a lot less then one uber-investor/collector doing so.

 

And yes, my suspicion is that it was the same fellow who bit the bullet on the AF 15.

 

 

okay...you got it... go ahead, Name that Tune! Give me ten reasons:

heres a few (w/o stretching too much)

 

filling in HG FF run

collects Hulk

collects Kirby

collects Marvel

collects SA

ummmmm

 

also, Many people check ComicLink repeatedly every day just BECAUSE books like this show up and can be bought before anyone else sees them. So its perfectly understandable to me that more than one HG SA collector snagged them. I was just making a point about the AF15 guy. I think he's done for awhile anyway.