Random FF Stat 0

[blowout]

Yep, that Medusa covered ASM pops up on eBay quite often in high grade. I think you'll find that generally white covered books are actually EASIER to find in high grade.

[WernerVonDoom]

Update of FF copies in 9.4+ (as of 10/26/04):

 

0 Copies: 169v, 172v, 185v, 186v, 187v

1 Copy: #3, 18, 173v, 183v,

2 Copies: #6, 7, 13, 110v, 170v, 171v, 184v

3 Copies: #2, 5, 12, 187

4 Copies: #1, 11, 17, 29, 37, 103

5 Copies: #8, 10, 15, 124, 179

6 Copies: #4, 21, 23, 25, 30, 34, 40, 51, 117

7 Copies: #9, 16, 19, 22, 27, 39, 120, 125, 176, 186, 199

8 Copies: #20, 31, 42, 43, 56, 115, 127, 184, 189, 196, 198

9 Copies: #36, 101, 119, 129, 137, 163, 177

10 Copies: #32, 50, 66, 79, 138, 162, 180, 191, 192, 194, 197

11 Copies: #65, 116, 132, 139, 170, 185, 190, 193

12 Copies: #24, 26, 28, 45, 49, 107, 136, 141, 143, 174, 195

13 Copies: #14, 33, 38, 90, 104, 105, 126, 130, 135, 142, 147, 161, 169, 181

14 Copies: #70, 109, 140, 152, 164, 168, 182, 188

15 Copies: #58, 80, 113, 122, 128, 133, 151

16 Copies: #63, 106, 118, 123, 153, 160, 178

17 Copies: #53, 85, 88, 89, 94, 95, 99, 110, 134, 171, 172

18 Copies: #35, 54, 62, 67, 93, 112, 114, 144, 173

19 Copies: #52, 69, 71, 74, 81, 102, 167, 183

20 Copies: #75, 92, 96, 145, 175, 159

21 Copies: #47, 55, 91, 131, 148, 154, 165

22 Copies: #41, 57, 155

23 Copies: #68, 72, 87, 149, 158

24 Copies: #83, 84

25 Copies: #77, 86, 98

26 Copies: #97, 111, 146, 150

27 Copies: #82, 166

28 Copies: #200

29 Copies: #46, 61, 121, 157

31 Copies: #64

33 Copies: #60

34 Copies: #73, 108, 156

35 Copies: #76

39 Copies: #100

41 Copies: #78

52 Copies: #44

75 Copies: #59

100 Copies: #48

 

% increases from last time (2/27/04):

 

1-50: 11% (486 to 538)

51-100: 12% (969 to 1090)

101-150: 36% (540 to 732)

151-200: 39% (514 to 714)

Variants: 100% (5 to 10)

All: 23% (2514 to 3084)

 

Books that have fewer copies than surrounding issues:

3, 18, 29, 37, 40, 51, 66, 79, 90, 103, 117, 124, 163, 179, 187

 

Books that have more copies than surrounding issues:

14, 35, 44, 46, 48, 59, 60, 61, 64, 73, 76, 78, 82, 100, 108, 111, 121, 156, 157, 166, 200

 

Top 10 Additions:

#156 (+14)

#157 (+12)

#121 (+11)

#108 (+10)

#155 (+10)

#48 (+9)

#59 (+9)

#111 (+9)

#134 (+8)

#200 (+8)

 

I'll update again after the movie to see how many books movie hype flushes out.

[Silver Surfer]

FF 7 is extremely hard to find in 9.4 or better. That and 6 could be the 2 toughest,

(after 3, which is murder to find even in 9.2, forget 9.4) followed by 18, 13 and 11. You never see these books for sale in even 9.2 or better.

 

If it wasn't for the Pacific Coast, there wouldn't be an 18 in 9.4 or better (same goes for 28). Once (if) the Curators get slabbed, the census (and perhaps perceived rarity in grade) will surely change!!!

 

In the 20's and over, 31 is tough, as is 34 & 37. The PC's are all 9.4s on these and there are no existing 9.6s.

 

Cap,

 

Who owns those Curator copies?

[Rival61-migration]

I think there might be a severely overlooked factor in play for scarcity of issues, and it can easilly be illustrated with the FF #48/49 discrepancy case. In all likelyhood, both distribution and sales were quite similar for each issue, and I do not believe that one was found in warehouse troves whereas the other was not. The actual deciding factor (in my opinion) was the number which were saved by collectors in the 70's. I collected in the early 70's, and EVERYONE knew FF#48 was the first appearance of the Silver Surfer. Less than 10 years had passed, but it was already recognized as a collectable. No one cared that #49 was the first cover appearance, nor even cared about the #50 either. When a copy of #48 appeared it was quickly snapped up by collectors, bagged and backed, and put away.

 

That to me explains the discrepancy quite well. Collectors may not have hoarded them in the 60's, but by the time the 70's rolled around, they were a staple in the serious collection. #49, #50, etc were never treated in such regard, and therefore were not preserved in the sheer numbers which #48 attained. You could find worn copies of FF#50 getting dog-eared in 10-cent boxes at every convention, but #48 was aways up on the wall. This "reverse preservation" has depleted the supply of #49 and #50 over the years, leaving far fewer examples of high-quality specimens than their big brother #48.

 

As for pricing, it's still a [#@$%!!!]-shoot. Demand for #48 will always be higher than for #49 or #50, and likewise the later issues will always be in tighter supply. It is up to the market to decide which ones have more value on any given day.

 

-Rival

[Tango 'n Cash]

Rival, Fantastic Four 48 was part of at least 2 warehouse finds while I have never heard of FF 49 being located in any vast quantities like that. I realize it sounds weird but it is true and trying to dispute it cannot change the truth.

[WernerVonDoom]

If FF 48 was saved by dealers/collectors and was not a warehouse find, how do you explain FF 59 (75 copies) and FF 44 (52 Copies)? Both of these books are non-key.

[blowout]

I think there might be a severely overlooked factor in play for scarcity of issues, and it can easilly be illustrated with the FF #48/49 discrepancy case. In all likelyhood, both distribution and sales were quite similar for each issue, and I do not believe that one was found in warehouse troves whereas the other was not. The actual deciding factor (in my opinion) was the number which were saved by collectors in the 70's. I collected in the early 70's, and EVERYONE knew FF#48 was the first appearance of the Silver Surfer. Less than 10 years had passed, but it was already recognized as a collectable. No one cared that #49 was the first cover appearance, nor even cared about the #50 either. When a copy of #48 appeared it was quickly snapped up by collectors, bagged and backed, and put away.

 

There is also the rumour that FF #48 actually went into a second printing. There do seem to be two distintcly different hued covers on the issue (one red, one brown) which may or may not back this up.

[Fan4Fan]

Rival, Fantastic Four 48 was part of at least 2 warehouse finds while I have never heard of FF 49 being located in any vast quantities like that. I realize it sounds weird but it is true and trying to dispute it cannot change the truth.

 

However, could 48 have been warehoused because it was a key issue? That is, early speculation?

 

Or is that also not in dispute?

 

Thanks,

Fan4Fan

[Tango 'n Cash]

However, could 48 have been warehoused because it was a key issue? That is, early speculation?

 

I think it is just coincidence like some of the random Amazing Spiderman issues that were part of warehouse finds. No logic behind it.

[fantastic_four]

Rival, Fantastic Four 48 was part of at least 2 warehouse finds while I have never heard of FF 49 being located in any vast quantities like that. I realize it sounds weird but it is true and trying to dispute it cannot change the truth.

 

FF 48 was in the Mile High 2 warehouse find, although I don't know how many copies were in it or whether the glut of them on the market came from that find or another one. Spidey 33 was also in Mile High 2 and came out within 2 weeks of FF 48, and it too is available in disproportionately high numbers to the Spidey issues around it. I've seen copies of both of those issues with accompanying Mile High 2 certificates.

[Rival61-migration]

I still think the likely source of the surviving populations has more to do with collectors than warehouse finds, although warehouse finds certainly could be a contibuting factor. Both can have bizarre effects of prices, as evidenced by SS#4.

 

SS#4 is the second most populous of all of the SS issues in High grade with a whopping 60 in 9.4 or better, this from a "Low distribution" issue. The exception is #2, which was found in huge quantities in several warehouse caches, which has 62. Yet SS #4 still sells at a premium of nearly 8X the price of #2. This is an exceptional case in point for supply and demand, the perception of the rarity of an issue radically overshadows the actual populations. With similar CGC populations, the price for obtaining either should be equal. Are there really enough more people seeking #4 than #2 to justify these premiums?

 

Once again, I believe the number of high-grade issues which are collected, bagged, and backed within the first 10 years of an issues lifetime is a factor as strong if not stronger than warehouse finds. Typical warehouse lots yield 10 or less of a specific issue, with a few notable exceptions (FF#44 for example). This cannot easily compete with hundreds bagged and backed in collections and put away for 30 years, especially because collected issues bagged and backed are probably better protected against the elements than are warehouse lots.

 

CGC and their census is doing wonders stripping the myth away from the scarcity of issues, especially as the CGC pool is sold and resold. CGC issues are a commodity unto themselves and unslabbed books today are only loosely tied to them in respect to market prices. As the years wind by, and the populations stabilize even further, I think we will be in for some real price shockes as high-grade examples of what were always considered "non-key" or "filler" issues match and in some cases exceed the key prices due simply because of an actual scarcity caused by their past non-collectability. This is already occurring in the Non-MH2/ warehouse issues of FF that find their way to ebay.

 

But these are still just my opinions, I don't see a way to prove it either way.

 

-Rival

[fantastic_four]

Typical warehouse lots yield 10 or less of a specific issue, with a few notable exceptions (FF#44 for example).

 

FF 48 is another example. Bob Storms recounted a tale in the forums of a dealer--Michael Carbonaro, if memory serves--with huge stacks of unread copies of FF 48 at a con. Unless he bought those from the Mile High 2 find, he likely knows the origin of another FF 48 find...

 

Consider these three months in Marvel comics from early 1966:

 

Marvel comics released in January 1966

Marvel comics released in February 1966

Marvel comics released in March 1966

 

I can't speak for all of those titles and all of those issues because I don't collect most of them, but I can say that there are at least four issues from those months that were undoubtedly warehouse finds based upon available supply--Journey Into Mystery 124, Avengers 24, Spidey 33, and FF 48. Does anyone know of other titles and issues from these months, or adjacent months, which are available in disproportionately high supply?

 

I suspect FF 46 and 47 might have also been present in finds, but the evidence is inconclusive. It's painfully obvious that FF 43 and 45 have never been.

[Aman619]

if contemporary Marvel issues from the same month are ALSO more available (as the Spidey33 and FF48 you mentioned) it may be the result of a change in Marvel distribution in that month...or at the printer. They may have ordered more copies for a new opportunity, or a yearly contract was up and the orders were increased. The unsold extras of course would then have found their way back to the warehouse....waiting to be, um, 'found'.....

Edited December 1, 2004 by aman619

[Aman619]

boy FF, seeing each month's worth of Marvels really brings me back!! we used to get half one week and the other half 2 weeks later. Whats interesting is to match up each title's issue with its contemporaries...cause in my memory, some of them see much older than others I must have bought and read the same day...

[fantastic_four]

boy FF, seeing each month's worth of Marvels really brings me back!! we used to get half one week and the other half 2 weeks later.

 

I've been wondering whether the highly available issues fall into that bi-weekly pattern. In other words, what other issues came out the same week as FF 48, and are they also available in higher-than-normal quantities? Grouping the issues together into their week of release is a much tougher task than grouping them by month.

[Silver Surfer]

I still think the likely source of the surviving populations has more to do with collectors than warehouse finds, although warehouse finds certainly could be a contibuting factor. Both can have bizarre effects of prices, as evidenced by SS#4.

 

SS#4 is the second most populous of all of the SS issues in High grade with a whopping 60 in 9.4 or better, this from a "Low distribution" issue. The exception is #2, which was found in huge quantities in several warehouse caches, which has 62. Yet SS #4 still sells at a premium of nearly 8X the price of #2. This is an exceptional case in point for supply and demand, the perception of the rarity of an issue radically overshadows the actual populations. With similar CGC populations, the price for obtaining either should be equal. Are there really enough more people seeking #4 than #2 to justify these premiums?

 

I don't think perceived rarity has anything to do with demand for SS#4 (minimal effect at best) and the fact it sells for 8x the price of #2. I think it has everything to do with the fact that it is probably one of the greatest pieces of cover artwork we will ever see. Kind of like FF#112, Sub-Mariner #8. They look like they are photos of real people the art is so spectacular. Johnny B

[blowout]

They look like they are photos of real people the art is so spectacular.

 

Boy, I sure wouldn't want to meet those people.

[WernerVonDoom]

On 11/16/2004 at 12:46 PM, Werner_Von_Doom said:

Update of FF copies in 9.4+ (as of 10/26/04):

 

0 Copies: 169v, 172v, 185v, 186v, 187v

1 Copy: #3, 18, 173v, 183v,

2 Copies: #6, 7, 13, 110v, 170v, 171v, 184v

3 Copies: #2, 5, 12, 187

4 Copies: #1, 11, 17, 29, 37, 103

5 Copies: #8, 10, 15, 124, 179

6 Copies: #4, 21, 23, 25, 30, 34, 40, 51, 117

7 Copies: #9, 16, 19, 22, 27, 39, 120, 125, 176, 186, 199

8 Copies: #20, 31, 42, 43, 56, 115, 127, 184, 189, 196, 198

9 Copies: #36, 101, 119, 129, 137, 163, 177

10 Copies: #32, 50, 66, 79, 138, 162, 180, 191, 192, 194, 197

11 Copies: #65, 116, 132, 139, 170, 185, 190, 193

12 Copies: #24, 26, 28, 45, 49, 107, 136, 141, 143, 174, 195

13 Copies: #14, 33, 38, 90, 104, 105, 126, 130, 135, 142, 147, 161, 169, 181

14 Copies: #70, 109, 140, 152, 164, 168, 182, 188

15 Copies: #58, 80, 113, 122, 128, 133, 151

16 Copies: #63, 106, 118, 123, 153, 160, 178

17 Copies: #53, 85, 88, 89, 94, 95, 99, 110, 134, 171, 172

18 Copies: #35, 54, 62, 67, 93, 112, 114, 144, 173

19 Copies: #52, 69, 71, 74, 81, 102, 167, 183

20 Copies: #75, 92, 96, 145, 175, 159

21 Copies: #47, 55, 91, 131, 148, 154, 165

22 Copies: #41, 57, 155

23 Copies: #68, 72, 87, 149, 158

24 Copies: #83, 84

25 Copies: #77, 86, 98

26 Copies: #97, 111, 146, 150

27 Copies: #82, 166

28 Copies: #200

29 Copies: #46, 61, 121, 157

31 Copies: #64

33 Copies: #60

34 Copies: #73, 108, 156

35 Copies: #76

39 Copies: #100

41 Copies: #78

52 Copies: #44

75 Copies: #59

100 Copies: #48

 

13+ years later and only 1 more FF #1, 3 more FF #3s, and still no #187 variants.  Issue #59 passed #48.  Issues #175-#200 have lower counts than they probably should because people tend to send in 9.8s/9.6s rather than 9.4s. I didn't include the annuals way back then, but overall they seem to have really low counts.  

 

Number of 9.4+ Copies (Universal)

0 Copies: #187v

2 Copies: #185v, 186v

3 Copies: #169v

4 Copies: #3, 183v, 184v

5 Copies: #1, 172v

6 Copies: #173v

8 Copies: #6, 7, 8, 11

9 Copies: #18

10 Copies: #2, 110v, 170v

11 Copies: #13

12 Copies: #171v

13 Copies: #37, Annual 9

14 Copies: #5, 17, 23

15 Copies: #Annual 2, Annual 10

16 Copies: #15, 31

17 Copies: #40

18 Copies: #29

19 Copies: #4

20 Copies: #12

21 Copies: #10, Annual 14

22 Copies: #27, 34, 51

23 Copies: #9, 16, 19, 20, 25, 32, 43, Annual 12

24 Copies: #42

25 Copies: #117

26 Copies: #Annual 7, Annual 13

27 Copies: #22, 50, 162

28 Copies: #21, Annual 1

29 Copies: #14, 45

30 Copies: #187

31 Copies: #Annual 8

32 Copies: #36

33 Copies: #177

34 Copies: #30

35 Copies: #38, 103, 124

36 Copies: #39, 90

37 Copies: #Annual 3

38 Copies: #33, 49, 179, Annual 6, Annual 11

39 Copies: #24

40 Copies: #26, 28, 56

41 Copies: #66, 163

42 Copies: #161

43 Copies: #101, 107, 120, 184

44 Copies: #115, 153

45 Copies: #128, 137

46 Copies: #147

47 Copies: #53, 127, 138, 169

49 Copies: #52, 164

50 Copies: #104, 188

51 Copies: #35, 65, 160, Annual 4

53 Copies: #70, 186

54 Copies: #47, 57, 79, 136

55 Copies: #165, 168, 196

57 Copies: #85, 139, 190

58 Copies: #41, 174

59 Copies: #105, 135, 151

60 Copies: #119

61 Copies: #80

62 Copies: #81

63 Copies: #116, 125, 141

64 Copies: #63, 96, 109, 110, 176, 185

65 Copies: #113, 130, 192

66 Copies: #55, 132, 180, 182

67 Copies: #71

68 Copies: #198

69 Copies: #145, 189

70 Copies: #144

71 Copies: #126

72 Copies: #74, 134, 154

73 Copies: #68, 102, 152

74 Copies: #172

75 Copies: #54, 106, 193

76 Copies: #75, 142, 171

77 Copies: #61, 111, 129, 143, 155, 159, 195

80 Copies: #99

81 Copies: #93, 94, 194

82 Copies: #69, 191

84 Copies: #88

85 Copies: #62, 133

86 Copies: #58, 89, 140, 181

87 Copies: #46, 84, 157

88 Copies: #72, 197

89 Copies: #87, 118, 167

92 Copies: #122, 175

93 Copies: #123, 200

94 Copies: #83, 149

95 Copies: #92, 98, 146

96 Copies: #112, 131, 178

97 Copies: #91, 158

98 Copies: #148

99 Copies: #77, 82, 170, Annual 5

100 Copies: #156

101 Copies: #173

104 Copies: #95

106 Copies: #150

111 Copies: #67, 183

114 Copies: #64

115 Copies: #114

120 Copies: #73

124 Copies: #60

126 Copies: #86

127 Copies: #97

130 Copies: #108

132 Copies: #199

133 Copies: #78

135 Copies: #76

147 Copies: #166

149 Copies: #100

157 Copies: #44

168 Copies: #121

233 Copies: #48

286 Copies: #59

 

 

Increases from 10/26/04:

1-50: +1056 (538 to 1594)

51-100: +3208 (1090 to 4298)

101-150: +2798 (732 to 3530)

151-200: +2817 (714 to 3531)

Variants: +48 (10 to 58)

All: +9827 (3084 to 12911)

 

Books that have fewer copies than surrounding issues:

3, 11, 18, 23, 29, 31, 34, 37, 40, 42, 43, 45, 50, 51, 66, 90, 103, 117, 124, 162, 177, 179, 187

 

 

Books that have more copies than surrounding issues:

4, 14, 24, 26, 28, 35, 41, 44, 46, 48, 54, 59, 60, 61, 64, 67, 73, 76, 78, 86, 97, 100, 108, 114, 121, 150, 156, 166, 173, 183, 199

 

Top 10 Additions:

#59 (+211)

#121 (+139)

#48 (+133)

#199 (+125)

#166 (+120)

#100 (+110)

#44 (+105)

#97 (+101)

#86 (+101)

#76 (+100)

 

 

Top 10 Lowest Increases:

#187 35 Cent Variant (+0)

#1 (+1)

#184 35 Cent Variant (+2)

#185 35 Cent Variant (+2)

#186 35 Cent Variant (+2)

#3 (+3)

#8 (+3)

#169 30 Cent Variant (+3)

#183 35 Cent Variant (+3)

#11 (+4)

Edited March 17, 2018 by Werner_Von_Doom

[c_mkv]

Great sleuthing/intel Werner. I’ve been hunting down an FF48 in a 9.4 for awhile. While I knew it wasn’t a rare book, very interesting to see how many there are relative to other FF books. 

[WernerVonDoom]

On 4/2/2018 at 8:11 PM, c_mkv said:

Great sleuthing/intel Werner. I’ve been hunting down an FF48 in a 9.4 for awhile. While I knew it wasn’t a rare book, very interesting to see how many there are relative to other FF books. 

FF 48 is kind of a perfect storm. Warehouse find, Silver Surfer/Galactus, Lee/Kirby in their prime.  There are so many copies, there were even a couple of years when the price went down on this book in Overstreet.  No chance of that happening any time soon though.