What is your opinion of the most difficult grading ranges to grade below 9.0?

[Rob]

I know many people who got all caught up in the graded sportscard market, and literally woke up one morning and thought "I paid thousands for a piece of cardboard?". All that's different in comics is that it'll be "I paid thousands for a few pieces of old newsprint?".

 

I think like that. I'll start browsing comics for hundreds of dollars, and then think, "Think of what else I could do with that $600. I want to spend it on some newspaper that sits in a box in my closet? I could get a decent digital camera, or DVD burning video camera, or pay off that credit card." So I collect for 6 months, then take a 6 month hiatus. I just came back from a hiatus.

[joe_collector]

I know many people who got all caught up in the graded sportscard market, and literally woke up one morning and thought "I paid thousands for a piece of cardboard?". All that's different in comics is that it'll be "I paid thousands for a few pieces of old newsprint?".

 

I think like that.

 

I believe that most rational people do as well. If I buy a comic, it's at a price, condition and QP-level that I am satisfied to trade the money for that book, regardless of resale value. I treat comics like I do my other expenditures, and don't foolishly hope that I'll pay for my kid's education with them, anymore than my DVDs or paperback novels.

 

That $50 I pay for a CGC 9.4 Byrne X-Men MUST be commensurate with my inherent enjoyment of owning it, and on par with purchases of a similar dollar value. It could be $50 or $500, but it has to be worthwhile to me, keeping in mind its inherent value, rather than some theoretical "investment value".

 

I think the only people who do not think this way have to be categorized as speculators. If you're paying more money than you want to, for comics that you believe others want, and therefore will increase in value, then what the are you doing?

 

The same thing those graded Coin and Sportscard moguls were doing before the hit the fan, deluding themselves.

[rjpb]

Like it or not, slabbed high grade or high dollar books will almost always command a premium over raw. Unless sloppy grading and missed resto become the norm for CGC rather than the exception, the security the slab represents will impart additional value (or if you prefer, guarantee actual value). What may change in the future, are the big price jumps from one grade to the next on slabbed books when it dawns on enough buyers realize that 9.4 actually means " 9.4 or maybe 9.6" or " 9.4 or maybe 9.2". There is no such thing as truely objective grading, so there can never be an absolute grade for any book. Even if they never seriously under or overgraded a book, any grade CGC gives a comic is more accurately an indicator of the grade range a comic falls into. I suppose somebody will always be willing to pay a high premium for the "only" 9.6 or 9.8 copy, just to have bragging rights, but should the uniqueness of said comics prove to be illusory, that premium may seem a poor investment.

[joe_collector]

Like it or not, slabbed high grade or high dollar books will almost always command a premium over raw.

 

Of course they will, just as they do in coins and sportscards. But "how much" of a premium and exactly what the "raw value" is, are what I'm referring to.

 

At the height of the sportscard mania, let's say a PSA 10 of a popular card (e.g. Jagr OPC Premier) was selling for $600 and the raw went for $80.

 

Well now, that PSA 10 is selling for $25 and the raw goes for $4.

 

Obviously, the graded card still sells at a premium to the raw, but I wouldn't be too happy about selling a $600 "graded card investment" for $25.

[Rob]

At the height of the sportscard mania, let's say a PSA 10 of a popular card (e.g. Jagr OPC Premier) was selling for $600 and the raw went for $80.

 

Well now, that PSA 10 is selling for $25 and the raw goes for $4.

 

You're saying the premium will stay the same multiple of raw value, and that raw value will decline. I think it's the opposite with comics. That $80 raw comic will be worth $100 in a few years, but the CGC 9.6 value will drop from $600 to $300. IMHO.

[joe_collector]

You're saying the premium will stay the same multiple of raw value, and that raw value will decline. I think it's the opposite with comics. That $80 raw comic will be worth $100 in a few years, but the CGC 9.6 value will drop from $600 to $300. IMHO.

 

You may be very surprised, as the vast majority of these insane "high grade raw" sales are to flippers looking to send them to CGC and reap the profits.

 

So if the potential profits from selling high-grade CGC start dropping... you do the math.

[Aman619]

but dont forget the wish factor in the buyers eyes when BUYING raw... and the reality factor when they dont come back 9.4s and 9.6s.

Its this gambling factor that pushes up the raw books that "look 9.4 or better" and keeps the census from swelling too fast that buttresses the 9.6 price multiples. Your argument works best when MOST of the raw books grade out HG, both swelling the census then driving down the 9.6 prices and finally pushing down the raw prices in turn... Truth is, CGCs tight ly ideosyncratic grading standards make it pretty hard to get 9.4s and up (SA).. keeping the game flowing along.

[joe_collector]

Arman, read the statement again, and see what I'm disagreeing with:

 

"That $80 raw comic will be worth $100 in a few years, but the CGC 9.6 value will drop from $600 to $300. IMHO."

 

I don't see any logical way that the CGC 9.6 price could get cut in half, and the raw high-grade price rise.

[Rob]

Arman, read the statement again, and see what I'm disagreeing with:

 

"That $80 raw comic will be worth $100 in a few years, but the CGC 9.6 value will drop from $600 to $300. IMHO."

 

I don't see any logical way that the CGC 9.6 price could get cut in half, and the raw high-grade price rise.

 

Which part do you disagree with? I think raw 9.4 values have gone up year after year, and I don't see that trend discontinuing. Do you expect CGC values to keep increasing as well? The $300 and $600 figures were used rhetorically, to get a point across. I'm not necessarily predicting a 50% drop.

[joe_collector]

Which part do you disagree with? I think raw 9.4 values have gone up year after year, and I don't see that trend discontinuing. Do you expect CGC values to keep increasing as well? The $300 and $600 figures were used rhetorically, to get a point across. I'm not necessarily predicting a 50% drop.

 

I firmly believe CGC values will fall, but by the same token, I believe that raw high-grade will also fall. Right now, they exist hand-in-hand, with the high-dollar CGC returns propelling speculators into paying higher and higher raw values.

 

So if the potential CGC prices and flip profits drop, why would the price of raw high-grade continue to climb?

[DiceX]

That $50 I pay for a CGC 9.4 Byrne X-Men MUST be commensurate with my inherent enjoyment of owning it, and on par with purchases of a similar dollar value. It could be $50 or $500, but it has to be worthwhile to me, keeping in mind its inherent value, rather than some theoretical "investment value".

 

Help me understand what you're trying to say...

If *you* buy them, it's smart.

If *other people* buy them, it's stupid.

 

That's the message I'm getting.

It's the same message I read with every one of your posts.

[Rob]

I firmly believe CGC values will fall, but by the same token, I believe that raw high-grade will also fall. Right now, they exist hand-in-hand, with the high-dollar CGC returns propelling speculators into paying higher and higher raw values.

 

So if the potential CGC prices and flip profits drop, why would the price of raw high-grade continue to climb?

 

I see raw 9.4 and CGC 9.4 values as independent of eachother. Raw 9.4 values have been increasing at a steady rate way before CGC came along, and I don't think we've seen a huge surge in values since CGC was introduced (I could be wrong). I've always expected raw prices increasing at the normal 10% -20% each year, but CGC's multiples of guide decreasing somewhat.

[FFB]

Below 9.0, I think it's always hard to make the call from one grading level to the next. I think it's just as hard to say whether a book is a 7.5 versus an 8.0 as it is to say whether a book is a 1.8 or a 2.0. The area where I see most of the "misses" would be, in my opinion, people who overgrade a G book, calling it a VG.

 

Personally the 3 toughest calls in grading (below 9.0) for me are:

 

1) 1.8/2.0 When is a Good bad enough for G- but not Fr/G(1.5)?

 

2) 2.5/3.0 Almost twins?

 

3) 6.5/7.0/7.5 Toughest range for consistent grading. They all look alike?

[fantastic_four]

Help me understand what you're trying to say...

If *you* buy them, it's smart.

If *other people* buy them, it's stupid.

 

That's the message I'm getting.

It's the same message I read with every one of your posts.

 

You're a GREAT listener!!!

[joe_collector]

Help me understand what you're trying to say...

If *you* buy them, it's smart.

If *other people* buy them, it's stupid.

 

It's pretty obvious you're just playing with words, and have no intention of starting a meaningful exchange of info.

 

For a quick primer, check out some of Mmmarvel's threads, where he calls anyone who buys CGC comics an investor, and that if you don't think CGC comics will grow in value, then you're a , or "why buy CGC comics if you're not investing?".

 

INTENT is the difference. If you're investing or speculating in CGC comics, then I wish you luck, as you're gonna need it.

 

If you're not, and could burn your entire collection and not feel the financial pinch, then kudos!

[joe_collector]

You're a GREAT listener!!!

 

And you're a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Congratulations!!

[joe_collector]

Raw 9.4 values have been increasing at a steady rate way before CGC came along, and I don't think we've seen a huge surge in values since CGC was introduced (I could be wrong).

 

You are wrong, and I apologize if that comes out as a slam.

 

NM 9.4 raw values were DOA pre-CGC, and just ask anyone on here. I remember talking with board members back in the day, and we'd all go over the NM copies of key issues we bought for virtually nada.

 

Once CGC came on the scene, it started an unprecedented spike in NM raw values, as the "CGC Premium" allowed speculators to buy raw, submit to CGC and rake in the profits.

 

Check out pre-CGC Ebay NM sales of Silver Age Keys like FF 48 or ASM 14/50, etc. or Bronze Age Keys like ASM 129, Hulk 181, X-Men 94, GS X-Men #1, etc. and you might be surprised at how incredibly low they were compared to soon after CGC started up, and today.

[fantastic_four]

And you're a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Congratulations!!

 

"Bad" joe is BACK!!! I guess the last 6 months of restraining your volcanic ego built up to an eruption, eh? It's a good thing I have such deep faith in the ability for people to change their personality, because if I took you as a representative example, I'd probably revert to COMPLETE homeostasis and become resigned to the same for others.

[joe_collector]

"Bad" joe is BACK!!!

 

I'm back?

 

What about "Vulgarity-Spewing, Insult-Spouting, Personal Attacking" FF?

 

Or are you one of those bizarro personalities who thinks that their own don't stink?

[Rocketeer]

And you're a person_having_a_hard_time_understanding_my_point. Congratulations!!

 

"Bad" joe is BACK!!! I guess the last 6 months of restraining your volcanic ego built up to an eruption, eh? It's a good thing I have such deep faith in the ability for people to change their personality, because if I took you as a representative example, I'd probably revert to COMPLETE homeostasis and become resigned to the same for others.

 

You're a homeostasis??... ......just goes to show you,...you never can tell...