Speculating on Walking Dead

[MedicAR]

We're in danger of over running the weekly speculation thread, so in the interest of keeping thing on topic I thought I'd start this one.

 

I'll be copying several posts an bringing them over during the next few minutes.

[MedicAR]

So how do you guys think twd #1 is going to do now that the first episode was a hit ?

 

Not to sound negative, I think it will climb another few weeks followed by a steady decline. I like to think a 9.8 will come down to $300, but that's dreaming. Once it hits bottom it will climb steadily again over a few years.

 

Of course, I never dreamed it would do what it has done, either.

 

What's your rationale behind thinking this?

 

This book is a tough one to predict.

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong MedicAR, but I think his rationale is based on most books that experience an increase in price due to a movie. They do begin to decline after a few weeks after the movie comes out. Faster if the movie is terrible.

 

But this is a TV series. A TV series that is going to be great. I think he'd be right if the 1st episode was terrible, but it wasn't. In fact, I think the buzz is so positive the ratings may go up. That makes it tough to determine when the decline will begin, and from which price point. Will it level from $600 to $300? Or will it continue to grow and level from $1000 to $700. Who knows?

 

I think we will hear about season 3 & 4 set for twd before season 1 is even over honestly ...

 

You aren't taking in to account the amount of raw copies that will be coming out of the woodwork now from people trying to get in on the short boom in sales. Which will undoubtedly bring the price down.

 

WD 1 had been expensive for a while before TV hype. i know at some point even the biggest fans will sell. i'm just not so sure we'll see the market flooded or 9.8s being so common. I've 20 copies of a book on the rack all get the same dent or spine tick to know 9.8 off the rack isn't so easy.

[MedicAR]

Is there a previous example of a LOWER PRINT RUN comic #1, that was ALREADY commanding $600 for a NM+ copy within it's first 5 years, that received an acclaimed TV series?

Not to be negative, but I don't see the price of this book going down to $300 anytime soon.

The demand for 9.8's may be greater than the available supply for a long, long time.

 

WD 1 had been expensive for a while before TV hype. i know at some point even the biggest fans will sell. i'm just not so sure we'll see the market flooded or 9.8s being so common. I've 20 copies of a book on the rack all get the same dent or spine tick to know 9.8 off the rack isn't so easy.

 

there are 231 TWD #1 9.8's or better out of 554 submissions. 40%+ of the subs are >= 9.8. ASM #300 has 302 9.8's or better out of 5856 submissions- that's barely 5% of subs. Watchmen #1 has 260 out of 1392- that's less than 20% of subs. 9.8's of TWD #1 are incredibly common.

 

You're comparing two books that are over 20 years old and were around for over a DECADE before CGC even existed to a 5 year old modern comic.

 

You're comparing two books that are over 20 years old and were around for over a DECADE before CGC even existed to a 5 year old modern comic.

 

TWD is common as dirt in 9.8. great book, great series, great TV show but common as dirt in 9.8. don't know how that equates to holding value in the long term. watchman #1 was a $1k book at the height of movie insanity, now can be had for $100. demand was huge, supply of 260 9.8's swamped demand. TWD will have similar # of 9.8's, demand going to have to be enormous for prices to hold up.

 

Common as dirt, but still getting $600 for a 9.8

Now the demand will increase, so I would think the price should increase. Once it goes down in price, it will go down from a much higher point.

It will naturally have a higher percentage of submissions in 9.8, because it didn't have to wait 12-14 years before it could even BE slabbed, like the 2 books you compare it to.

On top of that, I'd take into account the entire print run to look at the supply of a book. ASM in 1988 probably had a print run of 300.000 to 500,000 copies.

THAT's common as dirt. And easy to fill demand.

Walking Dead #1 had a print run of what, 10,000 copies?

And I'll bet there are more than 231 people out there that would like a 9.8 copy of it. I do!

I just don't see it at $300 for a long, long time.

 

Watchmen had a 20 year head start on filling demand, before it's movie came out.

A movie that many people ended up being divided on. (Personally, I enjoyed it. Just don't tell Alan Moore I said that!)

Walking Dead will have a WEEKLY TV series!

Is there anything else we could even compare it to previously?

 

Walking Dead will have a WEEKLY TV series!

Is there anything else we could even compare it to previously?

The only comic I can think of is maybe Witchblade?

The show ran for about two seasons,I really don`t remember if it was a hit or not back in 2000.

 

It wasn't. And there's no comparison between the two.

 

I do not see any comparison between the Walking Dead and the Watchmen. The biggest problem I have with selling moderns is the grading and the timing. When it comes to moderns grades are everything and it does no good to get books back after the show is aired. It is like buying toys after Christmas, the sales are not going to be as strong. It does no good to get a 9.6 on a hot book it is like buying a car that is missing a tire. Yes, it may still be a good car but who is going to pay full price for a car missing a tire, when you have an entire lot of 9.8 cars at the same price. I think it is important to understand the aspects of speculation on comic books...one hot comic will pay for an entire order but it has to have a 9.8 or higher. The worst part is gambling with signature series books, I took a chance and got a Chew # 1 signed and I sent it in already graded at 9.8. But, it came back a signed yellow label 9.6 with no notes. It was just like flushing $200 down the toilet not counting grading fees and shipping costs, yep that would make it $250. Listen please if you are going to sell hot moderns get Universal grades because if a book is signed without the yellow label it has little value on the open market and if you have the yellow label you are stuck with that grade. I have a Walking Dead #1 and #2 that were graded 9.8 and sent to Cincy for the Tony Moore Sept. 18 signing it is now Nov. 4 and I still do not have them back. The only thing that calms me is the fact that I know they will probably not hold the grade after signing and I will end up with two signed 9.6 copies that are stuck for every in the I do not know why the were 9.8 when I sent them but now they came back 9.6 eventhough I have not touched them at all. To top it all I just saw a signed TWD #1 sell for a $1000.00 on Ebay before the show aired. How many more buyers do you think there are sitting around with that much cash to lay down on a book? In my opinion it is more than just a question of worth, a book can be worth a lot but not sell because there are a limited number of people who can afford the book. Other people may want it but they just can not afford it, so it is vastly important to compete for the people who can afford it.

[seanfingh]

 

Other books that might be better spec bets than WD #1 right now are 2-5, 19 and 27. The ship has sailed on #1 at least in terms of being able to make spec $. Buying for $600 and selling for $700 hardly seems worth the effort.

[MedicAR]

I'm comparing it to movie tie-in books and the way they generally work.

 

You're also right on the difference between a TV series and a movie, at least on the surface. Comics fans have known this was coming for some time and have already been specualting and hoarding. I think that new fans, people who learned of the comic from the show will likely look up the comics, see the early issues commanding pretty crazy money (remember they're outsiders) and skip on to either trades or the new weekly reprints to get their fix. I don't think we will see a surge in new collectors of the series because the price is already high.

 

I've been wrong before, though.

 

Personally, I want it to come down to around $300 for a 9.8, but look at the original post:

I like to think a 9.8 will come down to $300, but that's dreaming

 

 

You aren't taking in to account the amount of raw copies that will be coming out of the woodwork now from people trying to get in on the short boom in sales. Which will undoubtedly bring the price down.

 

I hadn't considered this, but I think that there won't be many 9.8s coming out. Most folks that have a 9.8 have slabbed it already in hopes of making better money. There will be lower grade raws, but the few fans that like the show and are now looking for the books and will pay for them will likely soak those up.

 

You aren't taking in to account the amount of raw copies that will be coming out of the woodwork now from people trying to get in on the short boom in sales. Which will undoubtedly bring the price down.

 

Is there a previous example of a LOWER PRINT RUN comic #1, that was ALREADY commanding $600 for a NM+ copy within it's first 5 years, that received an acclaimed TV series?

Not to be negative, but I don't see the price of this book going down to $300 anytime soon.

The demand for 9.8's may be greater than the available supply for a long, long time.

 

There is no parallel for this book/series. Usually to garner the attention of Hollywood, it's a bigger book to start with higher print runs. TMNT comes to mind, but that was initially a movie and a cartoon series aimed at kids. WD is a TV series aimed at adults.

 

I never said it would come down to $300. Read the whole post.

 

I like to think a 9.8 will come down to $300, but that's dreaming

 

WD 1 had been expensive for a while before TV hype. i know at some point even the biggest fans will sell. i'm just not so sure we'll see the market flooded or 9.8s being so common. I've 20 copies of a book on the rack all get the same dent or spine tick to know 9.8 off the rack isn't so easy.

 

there are 231 TWD #1 9.8's or better out of 554 submissions. 40%+ of the subs are >= 9.8. ASM #300 has 302 9.8's or better out of 5856 submissions- that's barely 5% of subs. Watchmen #1 has 260 out of 1392- that's less than 20% of subs. 9.8's of TWD #1 are incredibly common.

 

You're comparing two books that are over 20 years old and were around for over a DECADE before CGC even existed to a 5 year old modern comic.

 

TWD is common as dirt in 9.8. great book, great series, great TV show but common as dirt in 9.8. don't know how that equates to holding value in the long term. watchman #1 was a $1k book at the height of movie insanity, now can be had for $100. demand was huge, supply of 260 9.8's swamped demand. TWD will have similar # of 9.8's, demand going to have to be enormous for prices to hold up.

 

I don't recall where I got this number, but 7000 seems like a pretty common estimate on the print run of WD #1. If anybody knows otherwise, feel free to correct me.

 

Proceding from that assumption, about 8% of the print run has been graded, with 3% of the entire run and 42% of all subs getting a 9.8 or better. That is a statistically high number, espcially compared to ASM #300 which had 250,000-500,000 copies printed (I'm going to call it 300,000 for the sake of argument) and has 302 9.8s or better out of 5900 subs. That's 2% of the run graded and 0.1% in 9.8 or better. Granted, there's lag time in getting books graded meaning more damaged copies are likely and other factors, but looking strictly at the numbers WD #1 in 9.8 is pretty common for the print run.

 

Overall, WD #1 is pretty rare compared to the demand. That doesn't make it "common as dirt." I think demand is already levelling and will ease slightly soon. $600 may be the settling point on #1 in 9.8, I just hope it will go lower for my own sake.

 

Walking Dead will have a WEEKLY TV series!

Is there anything else we could even compare it to previously?

The only comic I can think of is maybe Witchblade?

The show ran for about two seasons,I really don`t remember if it was a hit or not back in 2000.

 

It wasn't. And there's no comparison between the two.

 

withblade also had a print-run of a gadjillion, no?

 

everything I've ever read had the print-run at 8-10,000, not 1,000. does image even bother making books with 1,000 print-runs (other than variants). so move your decimal point over.

 

men in black was a comparable i guess, but once they stopped making the movies, people stop caring about the comic, it isn't like star wars. also the original comic was a flop i believe. comic also had a relatiely low print-run, but given the era, that was still probably 50K.

 

TNMNT is a comparable, except that really did get to be a part of pop culture. WD ain't there yet.

 

............................................................Teenage Mutant..............................Walking Dead

..............................................................Ninja Turtles

 

Known outside of comics

prior to "going Hollywood"?...........................No...............................................No

 

Large Print Run?........"................................No...............................................No

 

Well known creators?..................................No...............................................No

 

Popular in comics prior to ..........................Yes.............................................Yes

change in media?

 

Widely collected in comics.........................Yes.............................................Yes

prior the change in media?

 

Aimed at a wide audience............................No...............................................No

in comics?

 

Aimed at a wide audience...........................Yes..............................................No

in other media?

 

Likely to draw many fans............................Yes............................................Maybe

to comics from other media?

 

The last three questions are kind of odd.

 

When I say "aimed at a wide audience" I mean a broad appeal. TMNT was a parody of Frank MIller's work, so it was aimed at his fans. WD presented as a zombie book, so it was aimed at horror fans.

 

As for a wide audience in other media, TMNT was trying to draw in kids as well as comic fans. WD is sticking mostly to a core horror audience although being on AMC may bring in a few more.

 

And for likely to draw fans to comics, TMNT brought kids on board as evidenced by the Archie series. WD probably won't because the new fans of the show aren't going to be big time comics fans, I think they will likey pick up trades through mass outlets rather than track down each issue.

[MedicAR]

Other books that might be better spec bets than WD #1 right now are 2-5, 19 and 27. The ship has sailed on #1 at least in terms of being able to make spec $. Buying for $600 and selling for $700 hardly seems worth the effort.

 

You're right there. We managed to focus solely on #1 and what it would do in the coming months. Personally, I think anyone wanting to make money on #1 should sell now before the price drops.

 

I still think $300 is reasonable for #1 in 9.8, but only if you're selling to me.

[N/A]

Other books that might be better spec bets than WD #1 right now are 2-5, 19 and 27. The ship has sailed on #1 at least in terms of being able to make spec $. Buying for $600 and selling for $700 hardly seems worth the effort.

 

You're right there. We managed to focus solely on #1 and what it would do in the coming months. Personally, I think anyone wanting to make money on #1 should sell now before the price drops.

 

I still think $300 is reasonable for #1 in 9.8, but only if you're selling to me.

 

As I was discussing with JJ a few months ago I believe the spike will be between Season 2 and 3 at the earliest. My best comparison is Heroes. Only after Tthe writer's strike and decline of the show did the comc prices suffer.

 

 

[MedicAR]

Ya know, Heroes was one that I neglected when thinking about the books. A difference there though is that you could never go to your LCS and pick them up. Walking Dead started distribution through normal channels and remained there.

[N/A]

But assuming the show does well the majority of people will be introduced to the comic through the TV show much the same as Heroes. At the time of the show Walking Dead #1 was also unavailable at most LCS.

[MedicAR]

You are right, but the people I know that have asked about the WD books (non collectors) are not going to spend the money on a nice copy, they want to read the book and the TPBs will make them happy.

 

Heroes was popular within the comics community and grew there. I know there were some non collectors that picked up on it, but likely not enough to really influence pricing. Also, Heroes topped out at around $100 for the basic books, not the props or CGC SS, but basic nice copies.

[mschmidt]

But assuming the show does well the majority of people will be introduced to the comic through the TV show much the same as Heroes. At the time of the show Walking Dead #1 was also unavailable at most LCS.

 

Not in the slightest - there's the Image Firsts reprint of #1, the TPB, the HC and the compendium, all of which were easily available to people prior to the premiere of the show.

 

The Heroes comic books were novelty items that most retailers never carried - they weren't an on-going, monthly comic book series that retailers could point new readers towards, nor were they heavily marketed in conjunction with the TV show (which WD certainly has been).

 

The vast majority of the people who watched Heroes have no clue there's a Heroes comic book - the same can't be said for Walking Dead.

[N/A]

I sold CGC 9.8's for alot more then $100 for the better part of 2 years.

[MedicAR]

I don't doubt that, but how many were to someone who didn't already collect?

[N/A]

But assuming the show does well the majority of people will be introduced to the comic through the TV show much the same as Heroes. At the time of the show Walking Dead #1 was also unavailable at most LCS.

 

Not in the slightest - there's the Image Firsts reprint of #1, the TPB, the HC and the compendium, all of which were easily available to people prior to the premiere of the show.

 

The Heroes comic books were novelty items that most retailers never carried - they weren't an on-going, monthly comic book series that retailers could point new readers towards, nor were they heavily marketed in conjunction with the TV show (which WD certainly has been).

 

The vast majority of the people who watched Heroes have no clue there's a Heroes comic book - the same can't be said for Walking Dead.

 

seems to me this would drive the price up. Also Heroes comics were always available online while being advertised in the show. In my weekly visits I did not see any WD other then TPB's. The same crowd looking for novelty Heroes comics would likely want 1st print WD's.

[paperheart]

$510 for the second 9.8 to close on ebay after the show's premiere. the ship has sailed.

[N/A]

[paperheart]

 

did look like a 9.0

[N/A]

 

did look like a 9.0

 

[Old Fashion PB and J]

$510 for the second 9.8 to close on ebay after the show's premiere. the ship has sailed.

I watched that. I dont see the book going up still, unless it becomes a smash hit. But the first episode did not grab me as the first issue did.

[mikeggg]

whats the print run on 2-9. the price jumps so much on 2 and 3 and most of the others and I'm not sure its price at this point. I have no idea why CERTAIN 2's sell for 240 and another sells for 104.33. Even the completes set are strange I saw one set sell for at least 2250 and there were others with no one bidding on them. Even though the comic are being sold as unread that seems weird to me. If you like the series its a lot funner to speculate at this point. I'm curious about the serbian ones considering the print run on those and how hard they are to find in decent shape. If you can get high grades of these I think they might be something worth looking at.