Is it better to invest in Silver or Gold?

[joe_collector]

You mean...you'd be able to ACCEPT being wrong?

 

Hey, if it ever happens, then I'm ready.

 

Of course, this doesn't include the usual Rob Rant and dr bummer "liar, liar, pants on fire" routines, or other childish antics of the developmentally impaired.

[RushComics]

 

All right.. I'll tell you the real best books to invest in. It's a secret, so don't tell anybody..

 

The best books to invest in are the books in my signature link below..

 

(I can already see you saying to me!)

 

Charlie

[comicwiz]

Speculator demand outstrips reality by a long shot.

 

I mean, just take a quick peek at an ultra-common book like Hulk 181 and the prices it's bringing.

 

 

I don't agree that the speculation demand is the only reason driving the popularity of a key like Hulk 181.

 

Rather, I attribute its popularity to Wolverines debut, as one of the first characters in the Marvel Universe to challenge the legacy left behind by his predecessors: that heroes should abide by the rules, and "play nice." Wolverines personality and violent tendencies began to challenge the talionic code, and forced writers and readers to redefine what a hero should be. It was a radical departure from the comic codes moderating tendencies, and Wolverine was the first sign of a hero who didn't live by any strict code which endorsed the refusal to kill. He did what had to be done, constantly begging the question: should heroes offer defeated villains

mercy, or is "an eye for an eye" the only way to deal with evil?

 

In a day and age when people realize there are no guarantees that the good guy will always prevail, Wolverines "no-rules" fierce attitude badly outdates the image of a hero with sparkling teeth, good hair, and who prefers wearing a cape. It is IMO that the personality and demeanour that we have come to recognize as Wolverine help make his appeal widespread and able to transcend any generational gap.

[joe_collector]

That's the reason the Wolverine character is popular, but I'm simply talking about the zany values the book now commands.

[comicwiz]

That's the reason the Wolverine character is popular, but I'm simply talking about the zany values the book now commands.

 

I think that the NM- 9.2 and under premiums Hulk 181 enjoys on auction are fine, but I would agree that the NM 9.4 and up prices are insanely out of whack!

[PGCMint]

What you ask is a very complicated issue. One that many collectors have wrestled with for years. History has shown that our hobby is cyclical; meaning that what is hot by todays standards will be slow in a few years and visa versa. If I can digress for a moment and take you out on another branch of logic just for a moment, it will help with the discussion. A particular artist has a major impact on the hobby and on pricing. I remember when Neil Adams was the rage (great artist by the way). Consequently, demand for his books went way up and the price guide raised prices. It was the same for Frank Miller, Todd McFarland, and a few others. Eventually though, interest cooled and prices fell flat. This is particularly applicable to the current market but does carry on for several years. I remember when Batman The Dark Knight #1 hit the lofty price of $75.00 withing two months of publication. Overstreet raised the price accordingly in the next few Guides as it remained very Hot but had to lower it as interest cooled. The point is that trends affect pricing, consquently, when the trend subsides, prices fall. If you are purchacing comic books for investment purposes, be very careful of trends. They will change.... Back to Silver Vs Gold. What I fined exceedingly interesting at this point is the high multiples applied to Silver age CGC graded books as opposed to Gold in the same grade. Let's look at DC for example and use Superman, as he made the transition from Gold to Silver with no interuption. If an issue comes up for sale from the SIlver age era (let's say after #100) and is graded a 9.2 or higher, huge dollars are realized on that sale. However, if you step back just a few years to (let's say #86), the realized multiple will be less. Now what causes this? Is the diffference between 1956 and 1954 that stark? Every collector remembers only issues after #100 from their childhood? Not at all. It is simply a trend based on perception, which tells us that the Silver age began in 1956, and this will eventually change. To many collectors at this point, the Silver age represents a cut off. A begining where their collection will start. It has nothing to do with inferior cover art or stories, or not remembering the books on the newsstands as a kid. Superman made no radical (or even mild) change during that time frame. Eventually, collectors WILL reach back into the past and collect the Golden age counterparts in order to finish their collection. Not all but quite a few. IT has been this way for the past thirty years and it will continue. We are not yet as evolved as some of the other hobbies, like coins or stamps, Toys (or even baseball cards) and are relatively young in comparison. In all these other hobbies, the most valuble items are the earliest produced, not the most popular. Popularity does create demand and increased prices but as the hobby matures, it will only be a part of what makes a comic book valuble. RIght now, Silver age is a wonderful part of the hobby to be involved with and prices are high, with more room to grow. The heroes are very popular and easy to identify with, as many are made world famous by movies and mass marketing. It is a great place to be a part of. Eventually, our hobby will incorporate all of the mass information we are now gathering through the Census, the auctions, the articles, etc. and come into sharper focus. Right now the Golden age suffers from the Out of sight-out of mind syndrom and is not part of the current collector ferver. That is fine by me because it allows me the opportunity to acquire at a more reasonable price - for now anyway, as I know what will eventually happen in our hobby. The older and rarer items will become many of the icons of the future. Not maybe but will. There already is an offer on the table for a prominent businessman to buy every book in the Gerber Photo Journal Guide in the highest grade. The offer is a very real one and in the multiple millions of dollars but NO ONE can produce the books. My strong recomendation to any collector who is asking the question of what to collect would be to collect what you like and go with your gut instinct, not worrying about trends or what others say. Mix up your collection not worrying about date cutoffs and enjoy it. There are many great books in our hobby that have not reached their true value, so don't box yourself in with doing what everyone else does. Need advice? There are SOOO many collectors in this hobby that really love the books, are very savvy, thoroughly understand the dynamics involved, and have a great perspective. Contrary to many, there are some really kind and helpful people in this hobby that will take the time with you. Final thought: If you are collecting for investment purposes (especially short term) be very careful - OK? Yes, quick money can be made in this hobby but can also be lost just as fast (CGC or non CGC). So again, collect what YOU want.

[fantastic_four]

RIght now, Silver age is a wonderful part of the hobby to be involved with and prices are high, with more room to grow. The heroes are very popular and easy to identify with, as many are made world famous by movies and mass marketing.

 

This is why I figured Silver gets so much higher multiples these days. Most of the superhero movies and cartoons recently have featured heroes who started out in the Silver Age, with examples including JLA (cartoon), Spider-Man (movies and cartoon), X-Men (movies and cartoon), Hulk (movie), and Daredevil (movie). Once Superman and Batman make it back to the big screen, or some of the other DC Golden Age heroes such as Wonder Woman make their film debut, superhero Gold could be going for comparable multiples again.

[Timely]

Well put. I wonder if the Fantastic Four movie will also bring up the demand for Golden Age Human Torch books, or will it remain in the Silver Age only?!? Thoughts?

 

Timely

[nearmint]

Well put. I wonder if the Fantastic Four movie will also bring up the demand for Golden Age Human Torch books, or will it remain in the Silver Age only?!? Thoughts?

 

Timely

 

Good question. I've been wondering lately how prudent it is to collect Nedors, as there's absolutely no familiarity with those characters in the general population. Heck, even the comics community is only mildly familiar with them. I'm comfortable with my Golden Age Actions and Superman, but I worry about the Nedors.

 

I think it's entirely possible that you'll see a bump in prices on The Human Torch. So when are they making that Fighting Yank movie? American Crusader? Black Terror? Doc Strange(no, not Dr. Strange)? Commando Cubs? Nickie Norton of the Secret Service?

[namisgr]

Movies may have a transient effect on comic prices, but over the past few years the more significant trend has been the broad and substantial increase in the price of nearly all high grade early Silver Age Marvels. I agree with the argument made by others that this is due to the ready disposable income of baby boomers who grew up reading these books and whose earnings are only now peaking. According to this view, while high grade Golden Age are orders of magnitude more scarce, the demand is and will continue to be focused on early Silver Age Marvels. The Golden Age keys could continue to reap record sales going forward, but overall the Marvels from the early 60s ought to be the major driving force in the marketplace.

[rjpb]

I sometimes think the price effect that a upcoming movie has on a title's prices, particularly for high end copies, has more to do with speculation and anticipation of increased demand, than any real growth in interest in these characters by collectors of silver & bronze. Hugely popular, iconic characters like Batman & Spiderman may be the exception, as many collectors not currently seeking these character's back issues may be inspired by the hoopla of a successful movie to start buying copies of books they had collected earlier, and for some reason stopped.

[FlyingDonut]

If you are talking about comic books as an investment, not as something cool to buy, here are a bunch of questions you have to answer before I can make any sort of informed recommendation:

 

1) What's your time frame?

2) What's your risk tolerance?

3) How diversified do you want to be?

4) How liquid do you want to be?

5) What's your expected rate of return?

6) What sort of cash are you willing to lay out?

 

You have to think of comics as commodities. I wouldn't be buying either silver OR gold as investments right now - I can think of many books that will give you a MUCH higher rate of return.

-

[goldust40]

Okay, Donut, tell us what they are then. Please!

[blowout]

Okay, Donut, tell us what they are then. Please!

 

Valiants, at the right price of course.

[FlyingDonut]

Okay, Donut, tell us what they are then. Please!

 

Valiants would be a good buy, if you can get them for next to nothing. Any books, if you can buy them in bulk, are a good buy. By bulk, I mean for less than 10-12 cents per unit ($25 a long box). Investing in comics is different from buying cool stuff and hoping it will appreciate. I don't have the patience or the wallet to play with Bob and Ted and Metropolis - let them buy the big ticket stuff.

[flashfan-migration]

I don't know if this has a huge effect on the overall silver market or not, but I've seen this happen and it drives me crazy (sorry if this has been discussed before, I'm new to the board):

 

People take the average CGC guide multiples out of the Comic Buyer's Guide, and apply them against Overstreet. Understandable, since the numbers are REALLY BIG and the Overstreet guide is the one comic collectors think of first, but wrong. If you read the smaller print, CBG is calculating the multipliers against their own Krause price guide. And, their price guide has significantly lower prices for most silver material than Overstreet (probably closer to reality); the gold prices are similar though. Take any non-key, high grade, silver Marvel or DC and run the numbers and you could be literally hundreds of dollars apart. Someone bids what they think is a reasonable amount, but in reality they're paying stupid money. And, to make it worse on the market, their purchase price is recorded forever by GPAnalysis etc., so the next guy looking for that book thinks he'll be paying a fair price by offering that amount. The effect is more pronounced on silver comics than gold because of the discrepancy in the price guides, so perhaps that helps explain some of the volatility.

 

There will always be people who will pay any amount to get those special comics that have been sitting on their want list for too long. But I have to think that the majority will use some sort of analytical basis for their offer, whether it is CBG, OS, whatever, and the majority will always drive the market. Just do the math right.

[goldust40]

People take the average CGC guide multiples out of the Comic Buyer's Guide, and apply them against Overstreet.

 

Excellent point. People seem to forget that those incredible multiples in the market analysis page are based on CBG's own guide and not OS. For some reason, and I suspect it's to do with wishful thinking and a need to be different to OS, CBG's guide is about 15-20% cheaper on S.A. and B.A. NM prices, and sometimes even more.

 

I wouldn't denigrate CBG (at one time this rag was at the heart of the hobby) but I haven't met anyone who uses their guide.

[ft88]

These boards remind me of the chat rooms on internet stocks. As we digress from comic lore to investing, let it be said that nobody knows what will happen and everyone has an opinion which makes a market. The louder the bluster the more I doubt their knowledge.

 

A comic is only worth the value you get from it while owning as well as the value that you can sell it for in the future. Usually those two values are highly correlated. With Silver, I believe that owners place more value on the owning a book and its attachment to the character as opposed to the rarity aspect of a Golden Age.

 

I think that PGC is a little off when he compares to cards, coins and stamps. Instead look at fine art where the highest quality stuff commands higher prices. Allow me to stretch the analogy. Gold v Silver is like Impressionism v Modern Art. While Impressionism is older and has the classic names like Monet, Manet and Van Gogh, the moderns such as Picasso, Dali, and Warhol are newer yet command prices equal and exceeding the impression masters.

 

My only point of the analogy is not to compare rarity, but to suggest that age as the driving force is not correct. Comparing Superman 86 to 120 is not all that relavant since they are both incredibly rare in high grade, but if there are more collectors that collect 101 and up instead of 1-100 then 120 will command more. A very good point. Will the difference really get that crazy though?

 

Here is my opinion though which is worth as much as you pay. Silver will continue to out perform in the near term (5 years) because of the movies, age group of collectors, and relevance of characters to our current culture. In the long run I do think that the classic Silver will join the popular Gold by SIlver falling and Gold rising relative to each other. Non popular characters will remain flat or fall in price.

[delekkerste]

While Impressionism is older and has the classic names like Monet, Manet and Van Gogh, the moderns such as Picasso, Dali, and Warhol are newer yet command prices equal and exceeding the impression masters.

 

 

This analogy is way off. If anything, the Impressionists are the newer, flashier, "Silver Age" of fine art, while the Old Masters are the "Golden Age". Your examples are more like the "Bronze Age" of fine art.

 

Check this out (source: Artnet, Wall Street Journal):

 

Artist / Avg. Auction Price in 2003 / Highest Price Paid for Artist's Work

Warhol / $353,000 / $17.3 million

Dali / $951,000 / $4 million

Picasso / $2.1 million / $55 million

 

Cezanne / $5.5 million / $60.5 million

Monet / $4.5 million / $33 million

Renoir / $1.1 million / $78 million

Degas / $1.2 million / $28 million

 

Clearly Picasso compares favorably with the Impressionists price-wise, but Warhol and Dali are not even close.

 

Gene

[Timely]

So what happens in 30 years from now when collectors who grew up in the Silver Age start dying off? Will Bronze Age suddenly be worth more than GA and SA just because the people who grew up with them are still around? I dont' think so.

 

timely