Overstreet key book value dilemma?

[BassGMan]

Hi, maybe this has been brought up before but I don't know. I have heard that Overstreet will not be including slabbed prices in it's upcoming book. That's fine. But my question, is this. Take a high grade key book like FF #1, ASM #1 or AF #15. These days, when do you ever see a high grade copy of these books (and other major keys) for sale that is NOT slabbed? Therefore, how do you know what to value these books raw when there is no current data for raw sales? In the 2003 book FF #1 in 9.4 NM is valued at $32,000. When is the last time anyone sold a raw FF #1 in Near Mint condition? I recently saw a CGC FF #1 in 9.4 selling on Ebay for well OVER $100,000. How will a sale like this affect Overstreet? From what I heard, if slabbed prices are not listed, are the prices being paid for slabs taken into consideration for the "raw" prices that ARE listed? This really is a dilemma as far as I can see. What is the best way to handle this situation? I hope Overstreet gets it right. The world of comic values has changed with CGC and it's smaller competitors. Slab values MUST be included in the most respected price guide if it is to have any validity and relevance in the market today, IMO. -----Sid

[Zanarkand]

I think with slabbed books, a sale is a sale. Same as if it was a pedigreed book, a hot book, or a rare book. All go for "over guide" on a regular basis.

 

A valid price guide, keyword as always being "guide", should only contain base value, and let the market decide on incremental value assigned because of those other factors.

[Aces]

They should drop the NM94 column all together for pre-1975 books and go with NM90 as the highest guide value.

[joe_collector]

IA valid price guide, keyword as always being "guide", should only contain base value, and let the market decide on incremental value assigned because of those other factors.

 

But what is "base value" for a major key isssue in NM, when even the most cash-strapped dealer would get those books CGC'd first?

 

Basically, the question is: how can OS assign a NM raw Guide price when certain books do not get sold in that format?

[Aman619]

times are changing, and as usual in their custom, Overstreet is trailing the changes in the marketplace. Ins an ANNUAL, remember, so they have a reason to be cautious about major changes since they get one shot a year. If you ask them, they would, they will point to their new update as their solution to the issues you point out.

[Zanarkand]

IA valid price guide, keyword as always being "guide", should only contain base value, and let the market decide on incremental value assigned because of those other factors.

 

But what is "base value" for a major key isssue in NM, when even the most cash-strapped dealer would get those books CGC'd first?

 

Basically, the question is: how can OS assign a NM raw Guide price when certain books do not get sold in that format?

 

The Overstreet guide doesn't report "raw" prices. It just reports prices of comics, not prices of comics + plastic holders.

 

If all sales of a particular books were sales of slabbed copies, then Overstreet should report the average of all sales.

If some sales slabbed copies and some were unslabbed, then Overstreet should report the average of all sales.

If all sales of a particular books were sales of unslabbed copies, then Overstreet should report the average of all sales.

 

If some people want to pay more for the comfort level they associate with the plastic holder, that's their business, and will affect the price reported. Overstreet should just report the value of the book though, not the value of any given buyer's comfort level.

 

Consider the reverse: Should the price guide note that unslabbed books and worth less? If another true NM copy of FF #1 turns up, should the price guide say it's worth x if dealer 1 sells it, but is worth 5x if dealer 2 sells it, because he'll pay to have someone else call it NM too and put it in a plastic holder? I would stop using the guide if it came to that.

 

Assume for the sake of argument that everyone with the ability to buy such a book had the opportunity to view it, and most agreed that it was NM.

 

When the book came up for sale, would it make any difference what the guide said, or if it was slabbed or not?

[valiantman]

Is it even possible for Overstreet to print the "actual market value"

when so many key books have established a "X times Overstreet" rule?

 

No matter what Overstreet prints as the value...

the long-time seller rules of "2 times Overstreet" or "3 times Overstreet"

would probably still be used for the market...

 

It's impossible to have X and 3X be the same number unless X is zero.

[Aman619]

It's impossible to have X and 3X be the same number unless X is zero.

 

..and that will only be true the day after the Crash...so dont go there!!

[lou_fine]

I believe that OS "official" position is that the guide does not incorporate slabbed prices. In reality, I think they incorporate BOTH slabbed and raw prices. Why else do they include a big section at the front listing some of the major CGC sales. By stating that they don't include slabbed prices, this gives them an out in order to avoid having to jack the prices all over the place to try to reflect some of the silly prices we are seeing in the marketplace.

 

Taking this postion allows OS to incorporate prices increases at a much more stable pace which has always been one of his goals. This allows him to show steady price increases on a year by year basis and gives the impression of a nice healthy market even in slow times. Not saying whether this is good or not from a price guide point of view, but it's something that we should have gotten used to by now after all these years.

 

The prices in OS appears to be in between both raw and slabbed prices. If we take just the raw market into account, the OS guide is definitely overvaluing all of the books in general. If we take just the slabbed market into account, the OS guide is definitely undervaluing all of the books in general.

 

Remember, the key word in OS is GUIDE, and it should still be a useful tool to all of the posters on this forum since you should know how to relate its prices relative to the real market by now.

[Mister_Comics]

Whether a comic is appraised or not should have no bearing with the guide.

 

As an example. (and I'm sorry if this is a bad exaple) If you have a old chair appraised, the appraisel is never figured into the value. So why should the OS be any different?

[blowout]

Whether a comic is appraised or not should have no bearing with the guide.

 

I agree, but the interesting point that has been raised is how do you determine the unappraised value of a book that only exists in appraised form?

[BassGMan]

Since Overstreet is basically the "CGC" of their niche in the comics community, then maybe they should tell us (sorry if they already have, I am just unaware) exactly HOW they compile their pricing information. Are they considering slabbed prices, are they comparing Ebay pricing as compared to sales at conventions and comic stories? As far as I am concerned, an FF #1 is an FF #1. As far as an average value is concerned, why does it matter if it is slabbed or not? Mid-grade slabs don't seem to multiply the guide value anywhere near the degree of the high grades, and the high grades are the ones most likely to be slabbed. $32,000 for a NM94 FF #1 is VERY misleading considering that you will most likely NEVER see a raw FF #1 for sale in anything Higher than a VF. Sure, us guys that have been in the hobby for a while know what is what and how all this works. But the guide should be a useful resource for beginners as well. A little blurb in the introduction of the book explaining how slabbed books affect the price will not do much good (assuming they do something like this). OS has almost become obsolete as far as a price guide and the main use of the book for my purposes is as a guide for non-value information such as character appearances, artist or writer, and the usual notes that accompany the specific issues telling me that there is something significant about that book.

 

Why even bother at all with listing "values" of raw high-dollar key books? That information is absolutely useless and outdated as even a "guide". Again, just IMO. -----Sid

[Flaming_Telepath]

Why even bother at all with listing "values" of raw high-dollar key books? That information is absolutely useless and outdated as even a "guide". Again, just IMO. -----Sid

 

It has always been thus. For as many years as I can remember (and this is waaaaay before the advent of CGC), Overstreet has pointed out that 'true' NM key books have sold for multiplies of guide. What precise multiple has never been stated, as it's always been impossible to gauge as there has always been degrees of NM. Is it a pedigree copy? If so, which pedigree? What's the page quality? White or off-white? Is there an arrival date stamp? If so, is it written or stamped?

 

To this list of factors, we can now add 'CGC slabbed & graded 9.4', but this in itself is not so straight-forward. What is the page quality stated as? Is there a perfect spine register? Does it have an arrival date stamp? Sure, it's a 9.4, but is it a nice 9.4?

 

And yes, I accept that there are very few, if any, real high grade F.F. #1s sold outside of a slab but your idea of only taking into account CGC sales is impractible. The same argument could be used for #2. And probably #3, so where do you draw the line?

 

At which point do you transfer over from CGC values to 'combined' values to raw values?

[BassGMan]

 

At which point do you transfer over from CGC values to 'combined' values to raw values?

 

As far as I am concerned, it should most certainly be combined values in ALL cases no matter what the rarety or value. In fact, ignore the slab and estimate your value based on sales of THAT book, slab or not. I understand what you mean about a "nice" 9.4 as compared to one "not as nice". But as long as it is a NM, or VF+ or whatever, a sold book is a sold book. CGC graded or not, the slab in and of itself should not even be considered. If 10 CGC Slabbed FF #1 9.4s are sold at $100,000 each and 10 raw NM copies are sold at $32,000 then as far as I am concerned, the OS NM94 value of that book should be $66,000 (the average between the two). Of course this example is as simple as you can get, but you know what I mean. -----Sid

[Mister_Comics]

how do you determine the unappraised value of a book that only exists in appraised form?

 

Comic book appraisals are for condition of the books. Value of the book is not given by the appraiser. Sure the appraiser can say a book is worth such n' such, but its the condition that is really being given. What people pay for a NM comic is up to them. The OS guide only shows the value of what they have determined books are worth from years of experience. Maybe in years to come OS will take into consideration slabbed books, but its not likely to happen soon.

[sfilosa]

Maybe in years to come OS will take into consideration slabbed books, but its not likely to happen soon.

 

It's not like Overstreet has taken into consideration the real value of NM books in the past.

 

Anyone who has been collecting for more than 10 years knows that very rarely can you buy true NM Silver-Age or older book for guide value. As many of us have stated, we were paying multiplies of guide for high-grade books long before CGC.

[blowout]

Anyone who has been collecting for more than 10 years knows that very rarely can you buy true NM Silver-Age or older book for guide value. As many of us have stated, we were paying multiplies of guide for high-grade books long before CGC.

 

True enough, but the question is...are we still paying the same guide multiples we were before CGC?

[sfilosa]

True enough, but the question is...are we still paying the same guide multiples we were before CGC?

 

Blowout.

 

I believe we are paying a higher multiple of guide for NM (9.4) and higher books. I also believe in general that books in NM- (9.2) and less (other than keys) are selling for the same multiple before CGC. The reason I say this is because most CGC NM- (9.2) would have been sold as NM prior to CGC.

 

CGC has definitely widend the spread between NM and up books and NM- and lower books. That's not CGC's fault, but the collector / investor's fault for some how believing that there is a HUGE difference between 9.4 and 9.2 books (which there really isn't).