A market crash of a different cause

[Hensley300]

Talking with a couple of LCS retailers and from hints from Marvel and DC I think perhaps a different angle on market crashing may be in order. This thread isnt here to speculate on diminishing value of hg and or overpriced silver and bronze age books as I feel that is well covered in other crash threads. This thread should focus on the stable value of moderns, perhaps post 1980- upward books on average graded by CGC. My theory is the ever looming possibility that the big two: marvel and dc will be going to an all trade paperback publishing schedule and stop or significantly slow down monthly comic publication. If that is the case, do you guys not feel most post 1980's that were way over printed and with many 9.8's and up readily available may become essentially worthless less the random variant covers/etc as the emphasis on collecting will change. Because silver/bronze value is determined by scaracity they may remain stable but moderns dont fall back on this and since, if market does go to paperback sales, collectors emphasis will no longer be in collecting hg individual issues with no significance. Thoughts?

[FFB]

I am a Marvel shareholder and I have heard nothing from MVL about this. It would surprise the heck out of me if they did it.

 

Talking with a couple of LCS retailers and from hints from Marvel and DC I think perhaps a different angle on market crashing may be in order. This thread isnt here to speculate on diminishing value of hg and or overpriced silver and bronze age books as I feel that is well covered in other crash threads. This thread should focus on the stable value of moderns, perhaps post 1980- upward books on average graded by CGC. My theory is the ever looming possibility that the big two: marvel and dc will be going to an all trade paperback publishing schedule and stop or significantly slow down monthly comic publication. If that is the case, do you guys not feel most post 1980's that were way over printed and with many 9.8's and up readily available may become essentially worthless less the random variant covers/etc as the emphasis on collecting will change. Because silver/bronze value is determined by scaracity they may remain stable but moderns dont fall back on this and since, if market does go to paperback sales, collectors emphasis will no longer be in collecting hg individual issues with no significance. Thoughts?

[sfilosa]

If that is the case, do you guys not feel most post 1980's that were way over printed and with many 9.8's and up readily available may become essentially worthless less the random variant covers/etc as the emphasis on collecting will change

 

I would bet that there are a number of collectors on this board that would say that ALMOST all moderns (including VARIANTS) are practically worthless regardless of the grade.

 

It still astounds me that somehow a book that has over 121 9.8's, 274 9.6's and 144 9.4's CGC'd so far is some how considered RARE!!!!!!

 

That would be the Ulimate Spider-Man White Variant book.

[dam60]

Here's something for you -

personally, when Hush was on the stands and I got virtually every single issue the DAY it came out. I really couldn't wait. Going to the store was a must for me.

 

Now, granted Hush was a big event and that doesn't happen all the time, but I can't help but feel the all TPB market would basically be the end of Marvel and the DC division of TWX as publishers and the start of them as essentially pure liscensers for the cartoons / movies / toys, etc.

 

I like TPBs a lot, but I have never run to the comic shop to get a TPB and for the most part my TPBs are gotten either for free or heavily discounted at cons (i.e. half cover).

 

I don't think that the companies would do that since IMO (and obviously I don't have numbers to back this up) the comics do their part to keep the intellectual property strong. Without that, namely STRONG intellectual property underlying the various liscensees, a liscensing company really doesn't have a whole lot . . .

 

thoughts?

 

DAM

[fantastic_four]

Thoughts?

 

It's not a matter of "if" one or more publishers will go to all trade paperbacks, it's a matter of "when." It's hard to predict what will happen to the value of modern comics after that, but I lean towards them becoming mostly worthless, which is already true of 99.9% of them.

[delekkerste]

I am a Marvel shareholder and I have heard nothing from MVL about this. It would surprise the heck out of me if they did it.

 

Yeah, I shorted a ton of MVL shares at $35 and the company didn't tell me anything about this either.

 

Gene

[deathlok]

IMO they will eventually shift to quarterly TPB instead of monthly comics. This has been the trend for some time now in releasing a TPB of a just completed storyline. This would relieve the burden of the artists of a deadline for a monthly title. Dam mentioned he doesn't rush down the LCS for a TPB, because currently they are reprinting the monthly title. What would happen if the TPB was all new material. like a Hush storyline, would you be excited about buying it then?

[FFB]

Yay for you. I started buying mine at $4.95 in August 2002, so what's your point?

 

I am a Marvel shareholder and I have heard nothing from MVL about this. It would surprise the heck out of me if they did it.

 

Yeah, I shorted a ton of MVL shares at $35 and the company didn't tell me anything about this either.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

It's not a matter of "if" one or more publishers will go to all trade paperbacks, it's a matter of "when." It's hard to predict what will happen to the value of modern comics after that, but I lean towards them becoming mostly worthless, which is already true of 99.9% of them.

 

I agree. Has anyone looked at the circulation figures lately? Only 15 titles sold more than 60,000 copies in February 2004 and there are a disturbing amount of titles selling below 30,000 copies per month including a lot of books featuring long-established characters (e.g., Iron Man, Green Lantern, Wonder Woman) and some edgy books that we are led to believe are popular (e.g., Y The Last Man, El Cazador, X-Statix).

 

What happens the next time the industry goes into a slump and all the $2.25 and $2.50 comics get bumped up to $2.99 and $3.50/$3.95 start becoming more popular price points for a number of titles, causing an acceleration in unit volume declines? I have to figure that there are a lot of titles out there that are either not making money or barely making money. I believe that a move to original TPBs would be a more cost-effective/economical move for the publishers in terms of lowering printing and distribution costs.

 

The critics will argue that TPB prices would have to be raised due to unit volume declines, but that is (wrongly) assuming that most/all of the current pamphlet-reading audience won't follow their favorite titles once they switch to the new format, that creator royalty payments wouldn't be restructured (which they definitely would be for such a paradigm-shifting move) and that the new format wouldn't actually bolster revenues as well from being a higher-margin, more durable format that could be distributed beyond specialty shops (e.g., bookstores, convenience stores, increased mail subscriptions and newsstand sales, etc.). Yes, you'd lose sales from people giving up on the new format and from guys like Darth no longer speculating/hoarding multiple copies of new issues, but you'd also pick up a number of new readers as well.

 

It's interesting - it seemed a few years ago that all the talent being recruited to comics/back to comics/within comics would save the industry - Bendis on USM, Morrison on New X-Men, Jones on the Hulk, JMS on ASM, Kevin Smith on Daredevil, etc. Now, it seems that everyone's griping about JMS and Bruce Jones; Kevin Smith has proven incapable of completing a mini-series, let alone a monthly; Morrison is leaving New X-Men and the buzz around the book died a long time ago...only Bendis is still hot, though I don't think people are still stockpiling USM issues like in the early days. In retrospect, it seems as though the "renaissance" of new issue sales that we thought might be underway was just a speedbump in the industry's secular decline.

 

Gene

[delekkerste]

Yay for you. I started buying mine at $4.95 in August 2002, so what's your point?

 

My point is, unless you own a huge amount of MVL shares and sit on the company's Board of Directors, why would your being a shareholder give you any more insight than the rest of us who have been following this issue for much longer and closer than you have?

[FFB]

Just biding your time to start up a fight again, eh Gene? You're going to have to get over your pain some day.

 

I believe that I have a relatively thorough knowledge of MVL's innerworkings especially when compared to the average person. I listen to all of the company's conference calls every quarter, in which the company discusses its plans for publishing, licensing, and toys every quarter, and I study MVL's SEC filings with a very keen eye. If they had planned to stop publishing monthly titles and switch entirely to TPBs, they'd have mentioned it by now. If you've listened to any of the company's conference calls, you know this is true. It is absolutely the kind of information (it being a radical shift in their business model) for which MVL has given clear advance disclosure over the course of the last several years. (As an example, take a look at the way they gave clear advance disclosure of the fact that they were dropping their high-revenue/lower margin toy business for the sake of licensing everything toy-related to TBWW, except for the Lord of the Rings and Spider-Man toys.) I also read all of the company interviews (including those with Dan Buckley, the new publisher), and follow all MVL-related news very closely. I have heard nothing about stopping publishing on a monthly basis and doing TPBs only -- not a peep, until this thread.

 

Anyway how do you know how long I've been following this issue? Why don't you stop trolling me and stop being such a: I am sorry that I hurt your feelings on the crash thread, but I think it's time you stopped acting like a jilted teenager with an axe to grind and started acting like a grownup.

 

Yay for you. I started buying mine at $4.95 in August 2002, so what's your point?

 

My point is, unless you own a huge amount of MVL shares and sit on the company's Board of Directors, why would your being a shareholder give you any more insight than the rest of us who have been following this issue for much longer and closer than you have?

[delekkerste]

You're so predictable...

 

I have heard nothing about stopping publishing on a monthly basis and doing TPBs only -- not a peep, until this thread.

Anyway how do you know how long I've been following this issue?

 

Considering the fact that we've been debating this issue for months, if not years, on this Board, as have numerous industry wags (Mile High Chuck, Maggie Thompson and Heidi MacDonald of CBG, etc.) and creators (including those that work for Marvel), that shows me and everyone else how much you know about this issue (or about much of anything for that matter - you just recently heard of ComicLink? )

 

Did you even know that Future Comics decided to switch to an all-original TPB format and that Marvel is launching (re: test-marketing) a line of original TPBs (I believe I posted on this recently)? The writing's on the wall, pal. By the time you hear about it in a Marvel conference call, the rest of us will have figured it out well in advance. Not saying that it's going to happen anytime soon, but it's definitely coming and you and your fellow Marvel shareholders aren't going to know about it any sooner than the rest of us.

 

 

I am sorry that I hurt your feelings on the crash thread, but I think it's time you stopped acting like a jilted teenager with an axe to grind and started acting like a grownup.

 

I'm sorry, I didn't realize the universe revolved around you and your inflated sense of self-importance.

 

Gene

[blowout]

If that is the case, do you guys not feel most post 1980's that were way over printed and with many 9.8's and up readily available may become essentially worthless

 

I thought they already were...

[Timely]

Anyway how do you know how long I've been following this issue? Why don't you stop trolling me and stop being such a: I am sorry that I hurt your feelings on the crash thread, but I think it's time you stopped acting like a jilted teenager with an axe to grind and started acting like a grownup.

 

Hey, that;s my P`rick pic you're using on him. Well ok, if you must, but you owe me royalties...you hear me...ROYALTIES!!!

 

Timely

[blowout]

Now, now children.

 

 

 

 

 

[AtomicPaul-migration]

That guy must be held in high regard by the local porcupine population!

[awe4one]

Thoughts?

 

It's going to happen within the next 5-10 years. Will they make all moderns worthless? I don't think they'll be worthless but you'll see major downward price adjustments on the vast majority of them.

 

What bothers me the most is the effect on the LCS. I believe that a shift to TPBs will destroy the vast majority of comics stores in the US. Now, at least the LCS is providing an essentially unique product, monthly comics, to consumers because book stores and newsstand distributors don't want to be bothered by them. Shift to TPBs and that advantage is gone and they are competing directly with the big boy book chains with their discounted price structures. The local stores have no hope in competing against them and will fail because of it. That will have a great negative effect on the market that will effect not only Moderns but all Ages as collectors will become even more "fringe" then is currently the case.

 

Jim

[FFB]

Heh heh, I knew that I had saved the photo when someone on here had posted it, but I couldn't remember who it was. I just couldn't resist such a "timely" usage of the photo, no pun intended.

 

Gene: bite me. I'm done arguing with you. I enjoyed reading some of your posts, but I don't have the inclination to fight with you anymore. I come here because I enjoy this hobby and it's a lot of fun, but frankly, lately you're about as much fun as a hemorrhoid. Wake me when we live in an all TPB world and the comic crash has happened. Until then . . . well, you know what you can do to yourself.

 

Anyway how do you know how long I've been following this issue? Why don't you stop trolling me and stop being such a: I am sorry that I hurt your feelings on the crash thread, but I think it's time you stopped acting like a jilted teenager with an axe to grind and started acting like a grownup.

 

Hey, that;s my P`rick pic you're using on him. Well ok, if you must, but you owe me royalties...you hear me...ROYALTIES!!!

 

Timely

[blowout]

I come here because I enjoy this hobby and it's a lot of fun,

 

[Zonker]

What bothers me the most is the effect on the LCS. I believe that a shift to TPBs will destroy the vast majority of comics stores in the US. Now, at least the LCS is providing an essentially unique product, monthly comics, to consumers because book stores and newsstand distributors don't want to be bothered by them. Shift to TPBs and that advantage is gone and they are competing directly with the big boy book chains with their discounted price structures. The local stores have no hope in competing against them and will fail because of it. That will have a great negative effect on the market that will effect not only Moderns but all Ages as collectors will become even more "fringe" then is currently the case.

 

Jim

Jim, I think your analysis of the LCS is correct, and let me add to the doomsday scenario before pulling us all back from the brink: If the publishers go to all-TPB, and as you state that inevitably leads to the demise of the LCS, then that will in turn lead to the demise of the publishers (I mean as publishers, they'll still exist as licensing agents). Why? Because once the LCS are gone, the only retail outlet will be the bookstores, where books including TPBs are sold on fully-returnable basis! That's important because then the publishers will have to eat the cost of all unsold copies. With today's monthly comics, the publishers can essentially print-to-order, and any unsold books are eaten by the LCS (which is why so many failed during the 1990s bust).

 

For this very reason, I think the publishers will be in no hurry to shift to all-TPB, because they realize it will first kill their captive distribution channel, and then eventually slit their own throats!

 

Sure, there are exceptions like the Sandman all-original HC that sells amazingly well in both the bookstore (returnable) and LCS (non-returnable) venues. I'm confident most other OGN succeed because they are largely sold through the non-returnable LCS channel-- and without the weekly foot-traffic to the LCS ensured by today's monthly comics schedule, there is no reason to believe that regular foot-traffic continues.

 

Has Lighthouse weighed in on this one recently?