Are we in a 'speculative' market?

[bluechip]

Everything that involves the exchange of money for something that may or may not be worth more money later is going to involve speculation.

 

The same has always been true for vintage comics, well before the comic movies. And it will continue even if the number of actual comics readers dwindle to few or virtually none -- because of the comics-based movies and video games. The old comics will be collected as the source material for the characters.

 

Speculation at the moment stems in large part from those movies and from the values ascribed, implied or dictated by the CGC labels. The people who buy purely based on speculation will therefore buy based on the highest grade and the bluest label, because that is advice being given most by the most persistent and determined advisors/collectibles pros and dealers. If speculators don't temper advice with any additional research or thought, they will do well so long as the market continues rising dramatically but not if it stagnates or retreats, or if the hype of "investment grade" material proves to have been manipulated to favor things in ample supply.

 

 

[joeypost]

Since two people have alerted attention to the obvious, by asking 'aren't all markets speculative?' The answer (as you already know); is yes. That being said, maybe I am asking the wrong question. While all markets go through various cycles; some are more 'stable' than others. Would you consider the comic market 'stable' over the long term? By long term I mean decades.

 

Perhaps this is the question I should be asking for a better analysis.I do thank you for pointing this out.

 

We have been proven wrong by what was considered stable markets. Housing, banking, etc over the last few years. As is true with anything in life, there are no guarantees.

 

Collectors will continue to buy regardless of speculation. A drop in the markey will weed out those who are in it to make a quick buck as they move on to greener pastures.

[Ditch Fahrenheit]

This thread is what is troubling about these boards. The majority of older members will reminisce about the good old days, a time before all the noobs had lowered the property values.

 

When a perfectly reasonable and poignant question is asked, it is met with mockery and hostility. The responses are ridiculous, and lead a noob like myself to believe, that not a ing thing was ever different.

 

To make the argument that by questioning the valuations of the current market, you are somehow offending it's participants, is usually the flashing sign above the head of the dumb money. I buy comics, but I don't bury my head in the sand and pretend that all comics are created equal, and that a current market price is actually justified or it is based on a flash trend.

 

Why do you think that 99% of dealers will sell any of their books without hesitation if the price is right. It's the emotional component for investors that allows for poor decision making. You should always be questioning your purchases, your collection, or the market as a whole.

 

The question is completely valid, does not apply to every single comic book, and is one of the very few topics that applies to every single person on these boards. Or everyone can continue to ask why Lemon man is in the right.

In my opinion, the newbs raised the property values. I long for reasonable prices. But, I'm a collector first (40+ years). I agree - always question your purchases. In my opinion, the market is in a downward trend right now, in almost everything except certain keys and first appearances, and uber-high grades...., and I like that trend.

 

I think CGC initially had a part in the great inflation of prices, and now they're playing a part in the great deflation, since we are now finding out how plentiful most things are - like SA books in 9.2/9.4.

 

You live in Oregon right?

 

There's a parallel here with the Oregon housing market being driven up by retiring Californians (Noobs).

 

[mintcollector]

I'm not being critical of you. Please forgive me if I created that confusion.

 

Here is a passing observation:

 

Money is now digital. Cash is becoming a quaint thing of the past. The coin & paper currency hobby continues.

 

One thing...well actually two things, any non collector of coins and currency has to realize is this:

 

Number one, coins themselves; even without collector attributes, can be tied to the precious metal markets they serve. This is especially true of common date 'saints' and common date 'morgans.' This is one reason why there is always interest in this market.People buy coins for their bullion content all the time.

 

Number two, a lot of 'history buffs' are interested in this area. Think about it this way; you can learn a lot about a culture or the past, just by studying the money created by any one civilization. American money in particular has a lot of history behind it.

 

 

[USArmyParatrooper]

One thing...well actually two things, any non collector of coins and currency has to realize is this:

 

Number one, coins themselves; even without collector attributes, can be tied to the precious metal markets they serve. This is especially true of common date 'saints' and common date 'morgans.' This is one reason why there is always interest in this market.People buy coins for their bullion content all the time.

 

Number two, a lot of 'history buffs' are interested in this area. Think about it this way; you can learn a lot about a culture or the past, just by studying the money created by any one civilization. American money in particular has a lot of history behind it.

 

 

Do you really think people buying and selling worn common dates for close to spot is a driving force behind the better dates and keys?

[TupennyConan]

I apologize for mentioning coins.

 

I was heartless.

[Bookery]

This thread is what is troubling about these boards. The majority of older members will reminisce about the good old days, a time before all the noobs had lowered the property values.

 

When a perfectly reasonable and poignant question is asked, it is met with mockery and hostility. The responses are ridiculous, and lead a noob like myself to believe, that not a ing thing was ever different.

 

To make the argument that by questioning the valuations of the current market, you are somehow offending it's participants, is usually the flashing sign above the head of the dumb money. I buy comics, but I don't bury my head in the sand and pretend that all comics are created equal, and that a current market price is actually justified or it is based on a flash trend.

 

Why do you think that 99% of dealers will sell any of their books without hesitation if the price is right. It's the emotional component for investors that allows for poor decision making. You should always be questioning your purchases, your collection, or the market as a whole.

 

The question is completely valid, does not apply to every single comic book, and is one of the very few topics that applies to every single person on these boards. Or everyone can continue to ask why Lemon man is in the right.

 

Good post.

 

There are some keen minds on these boards and a collection of folks that can add a lot of experience-based opinions... or "speculations" if you will. Too often they are overshadowed by the eventual decline into trivia, defensiveness, and 20 pages of sexual double-entendres that generally occurs. But there will be some good posts... often with opposing opinions... buried in some of these threads if you mine deep enough.

 

Earlier I stated today comics are almost entirely a speculators market, and I will amend that somewhat. This is true of the super-hero market specifically, and of the high-grade market overall. But at this point I do see primarily collecors driving the market, say, in westerns, or Classics Illustrated, etc., as these are seen as essentially non-speculation-worthy genres. In other words, there is a market, of generally stable prices, for lower-grade books and off-genres that exists by and for collectors.

 

The CGC-market would naturally be a market dominated by speculators... that is essentially the purpose of a professional-grading service... to create commodities that are more liquid in terms of trading or investing.

 

As I said... it's a complex question. I think it's proper to look forward years and even decades when discussing "markets". There are reasonable conclusions that can be made based on evidence at hand. That said, one's views must be flexible enough to accomodate unforseen developments. If you asked about the book market 10 years ago, speculations could not have forseen the impact of e-readers, for instance.

 

[mintcollector]

One thing...well actually two things, any non collector of coins and currency has to realize is this:

 

Number one, coins themselves; even without collector attributes, can be tied to the precious metal markets they serve. This is especially true of common date 'saints' and common date 'morgans.' This is one reason why there is always interest in this market.People buy coins for their bullion content all the time.

 

Number two, a lot of 'history buffs' are interested in this area. Think about it this way; you can learn a lot about a culture or the past, just by studying the money created by any one civilization. American money in particular has a lot of history behind it.

 

 

Do you really think people buying and selling worn common dates for close to spot is a driving force behind the better dates and keys?

 

Absolutely not. How did you get that out of what I wrote? I am merely saying that people in the coins (and currency) hobby buy for different reasons. You have your high end collectors (like myself) who only want key days or high grade coins and currency, but you also have people buying coins due to their intrisic value. Second to that, you have collectors that do not care about the grade, but love the history.

Now you could argue that you have people who collect comic books to read, people who collect high grade keys (again where I fit in) and people who like the history and art of the characters. There is however, no instric value of a comic book.

When you speculate in the coin hobby you can speculate in two different markets entirely. One would be the bullion market and the other the high grade/key market.

 

That is all I am saying.

[TupennyConan]

I believe the sexual double-entendre market is n00b speculator driven.

[lizards2]

 

You live in Oregon right?

 

There's a parallel here with the Oregon housing market being driven up by retiring Californians (Noobs).

 

Californians are a plague. The market was driven up, the population increased, property taxes increased to keep essential services up (sewer, water, roads, ems, etc.) Now the market crashes as they leave to plague some other state, and we're left with surplus housing, no market and a new property tax level. And while they were here, they changed or attempted to change everything so it was 'just like home.' A pox on them.

[Comicopolis]

I believe the sexual double-entendre market is n00b speculator driven.

 

You made two boobs?

[mikenyc]

I apologize for mentioning coins.

 

I was heartless.

 

::

[supapimp]

 

You live in Oregon right?

 

There's a parallel here with the Oregon housing market being driven up by retiring Californians (Noobs).

 

Californians are a plague. The market was driven up, the population increased, property taxes increased to keep essential services up (sewer, water, roads, ems, etc.) Now the market crashes as they leave to plague some other state, and we're left with surplus housing, no market and a new property tax level. And while they were here, they changed or attempted to change everything so it was 'just like home.' A pox on them.

 

oregon doesn't even have sales tax. quit your whining.

[TupennyConan]

I believe the sexual double-entendre market is n00b speculator driven.

 

You made two boobs?

 

Well take a look. I have now.

[Comicopolis]

I believe the sexual double-entendre market is n00b speculator driven.

 

You made two boobs?

 

Well take a look. I have now.

 

Lucky you.

[TupennyConan]

If one wishes to understand a complex, well developed collectibles market, one might wish to spend years of time, money, travel, & research. In the comics market, promoters stage conventions all across North America nearly every weekend. Overstreet & GPA are cheap & available. Threads on these Boards & other forums like it are plentiful.

 

Avoid coins & too much fried food.

 

The hobby doesn't deny profits to either the seasoned comic shark or the n00b speculator.

 

Try to get plenty of sleep & don't smoke.

[Comicopolis]

Fried food is great.

[TupennyConan]

Fried food is great.

 

So is smoking.

[Comicopolis]

Fried food is great.

 

So is smoking.

 

Only if you are a fire.

 

Or an attractive woman.

[DiceX]

If I squeeze my left nipple just right I can get a spritz of fluid to shoot about 6 feet away.

It makes my eyes tear up when I do it though.

Not because it hurts, it just makes me a little...emotional. I can't explain it.