What will happen 50 years from now?

[Ian_Levine]

I've wondered several times whether collectors 50 years from now will even be able to collect high grade semi-key and key silver age comics(I dont even want to think about golden age.)

 

Fifty years from now, all the restored books by people like Susan Cicconi will be worth a fortune, and all the unrestored books will have crumbled apart. Purple labels will be prized, and blue labels will be treated as pariahs

[JohnBull]

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025?

 

Why not? Some kids that were 10 in 1984 are paying tens of thousand of dollars for GA books now. There may not be many of them, but there aren't too many people paying tens of thousands of dollars for SA books now either. Exactly how many people does it take to drive the demand?

[Ian_Levine]

Why not? Some kids that were 10 in 1984 are paying tens of thousand of dollars for GA books now. There may not be many of them, but there aren't too many people paying tens of thousands of dollars for SA books now either. Exactly how many people does it take to drive the demand?

 

Gary

 

How utterly BRILLIANT to see you back again.

[JohnBull]

Aw shucks. I'm planning on spending a lot less time here though, but there have been a few interesting threads recently.

[Red Hook]

In 50 years, kids won't even remember what printed material was. If anything, they will be logging on via direct cerebral-uplink to experience the latest virtual reality drama/comic book, featuring Xang Tse Lu, the Chinese superhero, since all anyone will be speaking is Mandarin.

 

Of course they all be doing this from Moonbase Mao, since the earth will have been rendered uninhabitable due to a unlimited Nuclear Exchange between the US and North Korea during the figure skating competion at the 2012 New York City Olympics.

 

Ian Levine, will have one book to go....but the only known copy of Buzzy 70 was highly radiated during the nuclear exchange, and to acquire it, he will have to don a lead lined jump suit and rendezvous with a satellite in a lunar-synchronous orbit above Moonbase Mao. The Satellite, GXR-Metropolis 21, has been holding the book for him since 2009, when international relations between the US and N.Korea began to falter badly.

 

Other highlights:

 

• The Wizard Now program lasted 17 days.

• Hammer was executed by lethal injection in 2007.

• The last book graded by CGC was on October 23, 2009, 45 seconds before the nuclear exchange began. It was Burntboys original purchase copy of Millie the Model #25.

• The Great Crash did occur, in 2007, when comic prices dipped 0.73% for a 15 minute period. Prices immediately recovered but not before a mass suicide occured at the April 2, 2007 Big Apple Con.

• Greggy hit his 500,000th post on January 1, 2006.

[Mr. Zipper]

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025?

 

Why not? Some kids that were 10 in 1984 are paying tens of thousand of dollars for GA books now. There may not be many of them, but there aren't too many people paying tens of thousands of dollars for SA books now either. Exactly how many people does it take to drive the demand?

 

Your analogy doesn't work. This bull market is not being driven by people that were 10 in 1984 buying GA books today for tens of thousands of dollars. You could remove this segment from the market with little or no effect on the overall market.

 

More specifically, my example referred to books that are driving the current bull market. "Investment" grade slabbed books. For example, a $1,000 ASM 28 in today's dollars would be valued in the 10s of thousands of dollars 25 years from now given the current growth rate. Remember that the people that are currently paying these prices will be retired or dead in 2025, and those that are 10 years old now have little interest in comic books. Don't forget, there are a LOT of these books in circulation. They are NOT rare. Do you really think there will be bidding wars over a slabbed ASM 28 in 2025? Yes, there will be SOME interest, but supply will outstrip demand. It WILL be like today's GA collectors, but with much more supply.

 

[Ian_Levine]

Ian Levine, will have one book to go....but the only known copy of Buzzy 70 was highly radiated during the nuclear exchange, and to acquire it, he will have to don a lead lined jump suit and rendezvous with a satellite in a lunar-synchronous orbit above Moonbase Mao. The Satellite, GXR-Metropolis 21, has been holding the book for him since 2009, when international relations between the US and N.Korea began to falter badly.

 

So what happened to the other ten copies of Buzzy 70 that I know to exist

Were they all destroyed

If so, how did my thirty one thousand DCs (plus the next few years of new releases) escape

[Samurai-Bill]

The same thing that happened to stamp collections .

10years ago when I first started to go to the Liverpool comic mart the ballroom in the hotel was partitioned off and shared 50 / 50 with stamp dealers .The stamp crowd got smaller and smaller every year , and the stamp part hasn,t been seen at Liverpool for a number of years .

The stamp crowd got so small they could sit down on individual chairs next to the dealers tables .

The comic crowd 10 years ago was very large standing room only now it's getting a bit like the old stamp crowd with fewer and fewer people ( and older , where are the kids ? )

So I guess we will disappear except for the really iconic first issues .

[Red Hook]

So what happened to the other ten copies of Buzzy 70 that I know to exist

Were they all destroyed

If so, how did my thirty one thousand DCs (plus the next few years of new releases) escape

 

Be assured that your entire collection was secretly shipped to the moon before war broke out, and secreted in an underground bunker near Crater Tycho. FInancing for the construction of the bunker was accomplished by the sale of 723,000 "The Wheels Are in Motion" t-shirts on ebay.

 

Rumours regarding the other copies of Buzzy 70 cast suspicion on a consortium of major dealers who conspired to withhold the other 10 from you. But after you raised a private death squad, aka The Buzzy Liberation Army, you negotiated the release of the best existing copy into your hands.

[JohnBull]

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025?

 

Why not? Some kids that were 10 in 1984 are paying tens of thousand of dollars for GA books now. There may not be many of them, but there aren't too many people paying tens of thousands of dollars for SA books now either. Exactly how many people does it take to drive the demand?

 

Your analogy doesn't work. This bull market is not being driven by people that were 10 in 1984 buying GA books today for tens of thousands of dollars. You could remove this segment from the market with little or no effect on the overall market.

 

I wasn't referring to any other part of your argument other than that part I quoted. Good thing quotes, they give you quite a clue as to what you're actually talking about.

[JohnBull]

In 50 years, kids won't even remember what printed material was. If anything, they will be logging on via direct cerebral-uplink to experience the latest virtual reality drama/comic book, featuring Xang Tse Lu, the Chinese superhero, since all anyone will be speaking is Mandarin.

 

That's silly. By that logic, no one today would be buying/collecting anything made before about 1950.

 

I don't want anyone to take this the wrong way, but in an obsession for Americana, it is possible to forget that some things in the world are actually very old. Pass me that Indian Arrowhead guide.

[Mr. Zipper]

I wasn't referring to any other part of your argument other than that part I quoted. Good thing quotes, they give you quite a clue as to what you're actually talking about.

 

I think I addressed your specious argument correctly. If you still don't get it, FOAD. Snot.

[Silver Surfer]

I don't know about 50 years but if today's buyer feels that $500 is an "affordable" amount of money that they are willing to spend on a comic what's to say that that figure won't be $2,500 for the next wave of investors in 10-15 years? $500 was a lot a money to spend in the 80's but I sure most of us wouldn't hesitate to drop that kind of coin today for something you really wanted. Keep in mind I am only referring to key Silver Age comics as some of the modern prices go against all logic, no scarcity, etc. When the growing population of today's elderly has passed on their estates in 20 years and the siblings have inherited clear title houses and investment portfolios from their parents $500 will be chump change.

 

If I spend $3,000 today on a decent copy of TOS#39 would it be outrageous to say that someone might pay you $6,000+ for it in 10-15 years? Probably not. I understand the implications of opportunity cost with money that is spent today but I am a comic fan first so really any purchases of this size (for me) is for the joy of owning it for the long haul. If my key Silver Age books that I treasure today fetch me triple or more of what I paid for them in 20-25 years when I'm 60 I'd probably be pretty happy.

[Ian_Levine]

The same thing that happened to stamp collections .

10years ago when I first started to go to the Liverpool comic mart the ballroom in the hotel was partitioned off and shared 50 / 50 with stamp dealers .The stamp crowd got smaller and smaller every year , and the stamp part hasn,t been seen at Liverpool for a number of years .

The stamp crowd got so small they could sit down on individual chairs next to the dealers tables

The comic crowd 10 years ago was very large standing room only now it's getting a bit like the old stamp crowd with fewer and fewer people ( and older , where are the kids ? )

So I guess we will disappear except for the really iconic first issues .

 

That'll never happen while you have Superman and Batman films being made, Smallville on TV, Catwoman and Hellblazer and League Of Extraordinary Gentleman films.

 

And the incredibly successful animated Super Heroes (JLA, Batman, Superman) on US TV.

 

Too much media attention to attract new fans to let it die.

 

Not to mention all the Marvel films - X-Men, Hulk, Spider Man as well.

[delekkerste]

Why not? Some kids that were 10 in 1984 are paying tens of thousand of dollars for GA books now.

 

Besides Timely?

 

This rear-view mirror analysis also falls apart because not only are kids today not interested in buying new comics (the traditional entry point into the hobby) at $2.99 a pop, but with the massive HG back issue price inflation of the past 15 years (particularly the past 5 years), getting into high grade GA/SA back issue collecting has become an extremely daunting challenge these days, even for those kids today who already do collect comics. If you were a kid today, why would you get involved in a hobby which, at current prices, will almost certainly drain your bank account of tens of thousands of dollars or more going forward, and where spending a good sum of money like $5,000-$10,000 is likely to only get you a handful of books?

 

It's one thing for the odd Gen-Xer to have started collecting nice GA in the 1980s or 1990s, back when stuff was somewhat affordable. The number of young people who will grow up to spend multiples of today's high prices will be very few, indeed, particularly with real income growth likely to remain sluggish at best going forward due to globalization and the markets likely to return far less than what they did in the 1980s and 1990s (among many other limiting factors).

[Mr. Zipper]

That'll never happen while you have Superman and Batman films being made, Smallville on TV, Catwoman and Hellblazer and League Of Extraordinary Gentleman films.

 

And the incredibly successful animated Super Heroes (JLA, Batman, Superman) on US TV.

 

Too much media attention to attract new fans to let it die.

 

Not to mention all the Marvel films - X-Men, Hulk, Spider Man as well.

 

Not one thing you mentioned was an actual comic book.

 

I think it's a mistake to equate popularity and/or survival of the fictional characters with popularity and demand for the comic books. Current young audiences may only know Spider-Man through film and video games.... why would they suddenly be compelled to collect old ASM comics in 20 years? I like James Bond movies, but I've never run out to collect the old Ian Fleming novels.

[Red Hook]

In 50 years, kids won't even remember what printed material was. If anything, they will be logging on via direct cerebral-uplink to experience the latest virtual reality drama/comic book, featuring Xang Tse Lu, the Chinese superhero, since all anyone will be speaking is Mandarin.

 

That's silly. By that logic, no one today would be buying/collecting anything made before about 1950.

 

I don't want anyone to take this the wrong way, but in an obsession for Americana, it is possible to forget that some things in the world are actually very old. Pass me that Indian Arrowhead guide.

 

Of course it was silly. It was meant to be silly!

[joe_collector]

[it WILL be like today's GA collectors, but with much more supply.

 

Now there's a comment to think about.

[joe_collector]

The stamp crowd got so small they could sit down on individual chairs next to the dealers tables .

The comic crowd 10 years ago was very large standing room only now it's getting a bit like the old stamp crowd with fewer and fewer people ( and older , where are the kids ? )

So I guess we will disappear except for the really iconic first issues .

 

[joe_collector]

I don't want anyone to take this the wrong way, but in an obsession for Americana, it is possible to forget that some things in the world are actually very old. Pass me that Indian Arrowhead guide.

 

Man, you are quite some piece of work.

 

No one is saying comics will become WORTHLESS and UNCOLLECTIBLE, only that in the future, the relative amount of MONEY PAID will be LOWER!