What will happen 50 years from now?

[rabidwolf]

I've wondered several times whether collectors 50 years from now will even be able to collect high grade semi-key and key silver age comics(I dont even want to think about golden age.) At the rate the prices of keys and semi-keys go up each year(it seems on avearge 10% cumulative) these books will only be available to multi-multi millionaires, unless the books were passed down through family. A NM AF 15 could have been bought for a few 1000 15 years ago. Now its over 100,000. Even semi keys like Daredevil 1 which were available in NM for about 500 about 10 years ago are now almost 15000 in NM. Will these books top off in value at some point. If not collecting such books 50 years from now, not to mention 100 years from now will be imposible. Just wanted to get some thoughts from the board.

[FFB]

I've wondered several times whether collectors 50 years from now will even be able to collect high grade semi-key and key silver age comics(I dont even want to think about golden age.) At the rate the prices of keys and semi-keys go up each year(it seems on avearge 10% cumulative) these books will only be available to multi-multi millionaires, unless the books were passed down through family. A NM AF 15 could have been bought for a few 1000 15 years ago. Now its over 100,000. Even semi keys like Daredevil 1 which were available in NM for about 500 about 10 years ago are now almost 15000 in NM. Will these books top off in value at some point. If not collecting such books 50 years from now, not to mention 100 years from now will be imposible. Just wanted to get some thoughts from the board.

 

How much did the average house cost 50 years ago? $11,000. Nice (but not swanky) houses where I live in decent (but not swanky) neighborhoods cost well over a million bucks. And people still buy them within days of the listing date.

[FlamingCarrot]

50 years from now, I'll probably be dead.

[Aman619]

ditto...but definitely for me!

[rabidwolf]

FFB, I understand your point with the house comparison. However I don' agree that it is an altogether fair comparison. A house is a necessity for all intents and purposes. People invest a large amount of their financial worth in homes. Comics on the other hand while an investment, are not a necessity. Furthermore the increases in houses are not as dramatic as comics. A 10,000 house fifty years ago being worth $1,000,000 dollars is a response more to inflation and the decrease in the value of the dollar. The value of the house is 100 times what it was fifty years ago. I'm refering to books that came out at 12 cents 40 years ago and now are worth $1000, $10,000, or even $100,000. Even the $1000 comics have increased a multiple of 10,000. My main point is that at these increases, in the years to come, these books will be uncollectible except for an elite few.

[FFB]

FFB, I understand your point with the house comparison. However I don' agree that it is an altogether fair comparison. A house is a necessity for all intents and purposes. People invest a large amount of their financial worth in homes. Comics on the other hand while an investment, are not a necessity. Furthermore the increases in houses are not as dramatic as comics. A 10,000 house fifty years ago being worth $1,000,000 dollars is a response more to inflation and the decrease in the value of the dollar. The value of the house is 100 times what it was fifty years ago. I'm refering to books that came out at 12 cents 40 years ago and now are worth $1000, $10,000, or even $100,000. Even the $1000 comics have increased a multiple of 10,000. My main point is that at these increases, in the years to come, these books will be uncollectible except for an elite few.

 

You are right. Quick, sell me all your stuff before I regain my senses!!!

[joe_collector]

50 years from now.... comics will be ultra-expensive.... you're kidding right?

[delekkerste]

Will these books top off in value at some point. If not collecting such books 50 years from now, not to mention 100 years from now will be imposible. Just wanted to get some thoughts from the board.

 

Yes, they will top off in value at some point. As will housing prices. There is no mathematical law that says either must rise 10% compounded ad infinitum. Prices are, to a large extent, determined by the mass psychology of market participants, BUT are constrained to a large extent by macro variables, particularly household income, debt and wealth levels. If comic or housing prices outstrip the underlying ability of market participants to pay, it won't matter if everyone "believes" a comic to be worth $X if people can't afford to pay that price.

 

Comic prices have been able to achieve the levels they have, particularly over the past 5 years, not only because of eBay, CGC, etc., but also because people made a lot of money in the 1990s, people shunned traditional non-real estate investments after the stock bubble burst, interest rates came down and people cashed out money and/or just refi'd their mortgages and people borrowed and spent a disturbing amount of money. All of these factors I see to be relatively short-term stimulus. Going forward, I do not believe that price appreciation can continue to outstrip income growth and other underlying fundamentals year after year, not with the tough macro environment I see coming. And, as I have mentioned on several occasions, when the Baby Boomers start retiring in 2009 and their collectibles are dishoarded in the 2010s to a smaller collecting base, that will almost certainly put a damper on price growth, if not cause outright price declines.

[Mr. Zipper]

You are right. Quick, sell me all your stuff before I regain my senses!!!

 

I'd be happy to sell you some Hopalong Cassidy memorabilia and postcards of silent film stars. $5 for a shoe box full. 30 years ago, lots of people thought these collectibles would appreciate in value to infinity as well.

[Mr. Zipper]

To answer your question Rabid....

 

In 50 years I will be in my 80s (God willing )

 

If I sold off my collection at that time, or even 20 years before, adjusted for inflation, I think I would take a massive loss on everything I had bought. Adjusted for inflation, I'd bet that I'd even lose money on books I bought at cover price.

 

 

But that's okay, I am a collector, not an investor.

[Aman619]

....I didnt really relish getting to all this again so soon....but let me comment on one aspect of your reply.

 

Im overjoyed that at least the crash has been pushed back to 2009!

2004s almost half over and, well, you know how the markets been doing. So cheer up evybody: we got three more years of feverish buying left and two years to unload it at the top!

[Red Hook]

In 50 years I'll be 99 years old, and if I'm still alive I will probably have long since broken all my silver age comics out of their CGC holders and used them as panty-liners.

[delekkerste]

....I didnt really relish getting to all this again so soon....but let me comment on one aspect of your reply.

 

Im overjoyed that at least the crash has been pushed back to 2009!

2004s almost half over and, well, you know how the markets been doing. So cheer up evybody: we got three more years of feverish buying left and two years to unload it at the top!

 

You should view my comments as a cumulative probability function, not as a series of random occurrences whereby I don't think the coin will come up heads until 2009. I believe the probability for a multi-year (if not a decade or more) secular top for the very high-grade/slabbed comics market in 2004 is already high enough to take notice...as each year passes, the probability just gets closer and closer to 100% (if the event hasn't occurred yet). No need to "get into it" again...we both know where the other stands.

[s-man]

I will probably have long since broken all my silver age comics out of their CGC holders and used them as panty-liners.

 

[s-man]

The way things are going, in 50 years you wont be able to afford gas, milk, etc... much less a comic book!!

[FlyingDonut]

Will these books top off in value at some point. If not collecting such books 50 years from now, not to mention 100 years from now will be imposible. Just wanted to get some thoughts from the board.

 

Yes, they will top off in value at some point. As will housing prices. There is no mathematical law that says either must rise 10% compounded ad infinitum. Prices are, to a large extent, determined by the mass psychology of market participants, BUT are constrained to a large extent by macro variables, particularly household income, debt and wealth levels. If comic or housing prices outstrip the underlying ability of market participants to pay, it won't matter if everyone "believes" a comic to be worth $X if people can't afford to pay that price.

 

Comic prices have been able to achieve the levels they have, particularly over the past 5 years, not only because of eBay, CGC, etc., but also because people made a lot of money in the 1990s, people shunned traditional non-real estate investments after the stock bubble burst, interest rates came down and people cashed out money and/or just refi'd their mortgages and people borrowed and spent a disturbing amount of money. All of these factors I see to be relatively short-term stimulus. Going forward, I do not believe that price appreciation can continue to outstrip income growth and other underlying fundamentals year after year, not with the tough macro environment I see coming. And, as I have mentioned on several occasions, when the Baby Boomers start retiring in 2009 and their collectibles are dishoarded in the 2010s to a smaller collecting base, that will almost certainly put a damper on price growth, if not cause outright price declines.

 

See, if all crash threads were as well thought out as this one, there wouldn't be any person_without_enough_empathying about it! This is an extremely accurate statement.

 

My thought is that certain iconic comics will hold value. Action 1. Detective 27. AF 15. Other books will NOT. For a good example, look at Lone Ranger comics. Or Tarzan comics. Or any other of a plethora of items.

[Mr. Zipper]

Im overjoyed that at least the crash has been pushed back to 2009!

2004s almost half over and, well, you know how the markets been doing.

 

I think we have to differentiate between a "crash" and a "plateau - steady decline"

 

Gene can say it a lot better than me, but what makes sense to me is a series of ups and downs, each one getting less severe until the market hits a plateau. After a plateau, the market eventually declines as boomers die and demand sharply drops off.

 

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025?

[Mr. Zipper]

My thought is that certain iconic comics will hold value. Action 1. Detective 27. AF 15. Other books will NOT. For a good example, look at Lone Ranger comics. Or Tarzan comics. Or any other of a plethora of items.

 

Agreed. Certain books are classic Americana and will hold collector interest for many years to come. Because of the high profile of these books, there is interest even outside of strictly comic collecting circles.

 

That said, books commanding high prices because of some peculiarity or appearance that is strictly of interest to those in comic collecting circles are doomed to extinction. For instance, in 30 years, how many people will be willing to pay big bucks for ASM 28 because it's tough in HG because it has a black cover? In 20 years, how many people will care that X-Men 108 is Byrne's first work in that title? Daredevil 168 probably doesn't have 10 years, let alone 20.

 

[delekkerste]

Agreed. Certain books are classic Americana and will hold collector interest for many years to come. Because of the high profile of these books, there is interest even outside of strictly comic collecting circles.

 

I agree with this. There are certain books that are key parts of our culture and that have effectively transcended the hobby. I don't think this makes them a "sure-thing" or "bullet-proof" investment-wise, but I am confident that they will hold interest for decades to come and will likely hold up much better than other books.

 

 

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025? ...

 

That said, books commanding high prices because of some peculiarity or appearance that is strictly of interest to those in comic collecting circles are doomed to extinction. For instance, in 30 years, how many people will be willing to pay big bucks for ASM 28 because it's tough in HG because it has a black cover? In 20 years, how many people will care that X-Men 108 is Byrne's first work in that title? Daredevil 168 probably doesn't have 10 years, let alone 20.

 

"We hold these truths to be self evident..." I agree wholeheartedly. I love these books, but to think that future generations will hold them in the same high regard (or even higher regard, if one expects them to pay even higher prices) given how much things have changed and continue to change, is definitely a lower-probability scenario.

[joe_collector]

Does anyone really think the kids that are 10 now will be willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars for Silver Age ASMs in 2025?

 

Some people obviously do, though the smart ones are just playing the hype, and looking to cash out before the really hits the fan.

 

Has anyone bothered to list the SERIOUS COLLECTORS/INVESTORS who have (or are currently) cashed out?