TWD #2 or avengers #4

[N/A]

Huh...reading your sig line reminds of the early 1990's Valiant bubble. I had conversations with several Philly-area dealers who were okay with Harbinger 1 selling for $100 because they legitimately thought it would go to $250 within the next three years--something no comic had done (in inflation-adjusted terms) since GS X-Men 1 and X-Men 94.

 

The smart folks traded up for Silver Age. Still should.

 

Considering Harbinger 1 shot way past $250 in 9.8 I'm not sure you made your point.

 

Sorry to go all RMA on you, but No.

 

1) Harbinger 1 did not hit $250 "within 3 years" as my post noted was the conventional wisdom at the time.

 

2) One absolutely cannot compare 1993's "NM" to 2012's "9.8," as CGC did not exist in 1992-93 and grading standards were not as strict.

 

Most of the Harbinger 1s that were selling for $100-$130 per in 1993 would grade out today as 9.2/9.4s.

 

Recall that even otherwise structurally NM/M copies tend to have small bindery tears in the lower left-hand corner that knock it out of mint.

 

Hence the reason that only 15% of slabbed copies have hit 9.8 and for years there were only a handful on the census. That's _mad_ low for a modern book and is because of the printing defect.

 

For comparison, Harbinger 0's 9.8 hit rate is 40%; Harbinger 2's is 50%. Walking Dead 1's hit rate is 41%, with almost a 1% 9.9 hit rate on top of that.

 

As recently as 2009 there were fewer than two dozen copies of Harbinger # 1 in 9.8 out of 350+ submissions. Today, there are well under 100 blue label 9.8s.

 

And it's actually following a geometric curve: Harbinger 1 in 9.8 peaked in 2008 at $2,500. Today, with 5x as many 9.8s on the census, it sells for 20% as much.

 

But from the time of the prediction until it hit the peak or until now whic was the better buy? For the required 'investment' which portfolio performed? Harbinger or Silver Age?

 

I was just curious since the prediction was off in time but seemed to do ok co pared to most predictions.

 

Also when is the end of the silver age reign?

 

And don't you need more

[seanfingh]

90-day GPA shows that right now a 9.8 Walking Dead 2 is roughly equal to a 7.0 Avengers 4.

 

Given that choice, how many of you would legitimately pick the Walking Dead as in investment?

 

My take is both are in a bubble right now and will be able to be had more cheaply next summer, when the current TV hype re. Walking Dead and pre-Avengers movie hype have long passed.

 

So either is a fool's bet.

 

While this is a true statement, the 90 day GPA only shows the one monster sale. The 12 month is $765, with $314 and $270 as the two trailing twelve.

 

The bottom line is that WD is INSANE right now. The single digits are going to keep blowing up. 19 and 27 are going to the fricking moon. The real question becomes, is the long play for other books like 10-18 and 20-26, where they are starting to look super cheap compared to the surrounding and previous issues.

[synch]

I should also point out that i don't buy books tas investments if i buy a book It stays in my personal collection Though I do like to get things for the best price so if I can wait a while on both books & have them go down I will do so ....

 

[maloney414]

With all of the long standing Silver age titles ending and rebooting what will drive the collectibility? If the rule of 25 sticks then what will be more desireable in 25 years?

 

Captain America.

 

The rule of 25 originated from kids. Kids playing with toys and then 25 years later they have jobs & real money to spend on collectables recapturing their youth. (The 25 isn't set in stone, it's more about hitting the late 20's early 30's demographic recapturing their youth.) For example Star Wars, G.I. Joe and Transformer toys. It's why people expect another bump in TMNT #1 soon.

 

Walking Dead is an adult book and an adult TV show. It's already hitting the demographic. I wouldn't put faith in the rule of 25 for WD.

 

Captain America on the other hand and superheros in general are still on kids t-shirts, underwear, lunch boxes, cartoons, movies, video games, etc. Comics aren't as big with the kids in general, but kids do know who Spidey, Hulk, Batman, Supes, & Captain America are.

 

With the number of teenagers begging for 1st print WD's I will disagree about the rule of 25.

 

At some point Silver Age characters will become secondary. When will that be?

 

Perhaps a rule of 10 or 15 for the WD teenage fans then. That might apply.

 

But I don't think the bump in price will be as big. I say that simply because WD is already hitting the sweet spot demographic of the late 20's/early 30's collector. That age group has the highest concentration of people old enough to have jobs and money to spend, but young enough that they don't have family responsibilities yet. As they get older they typical cash out to buy diapers, then to fix something in their house like a hot water heater or a new roof, and then to pay for their kids college. When these teenagers hit that age 10/15 years from now they will simply replace some of the current collectors who will have left or cashed out. It's not necessarily true that more people will be looking to buy a WD #1 15 years from now than there are today.

 

In the normal "rule of 25" situation, there is a period of time when the demand for the collectable is low until the fan base matures at the same time 20/25 years later causing prices to rise. The feeding frenzy for WD has already started.

 

As for the SA characters becoming secondary. I don't know when, but it's a long way off. If you ask LCS owners, Marvel and DC are still king. I'd LOVE to see more creator owned modern material become more popular. In my opinion it's the best stuff and what I read/collect.

 

[fastballspecial]

Branget brings up a good point. At some point Avengers 4 will become secondary, but not for at least another 20 years I would say. The baby boomers and up love CA he is an American standard for anyone 50 and up. Now below 50 it gets grayed some. Personally I would still take Avengers 4 for the next few years, but if WD continues its success the breaking point would be sooner rather then later.

 

[400yrs]

Branget brings up a good point. At some point Avengers 4 will become secondary, but not for at least another 20 years I would say. The baby boomers and up love CA he is an American standard for anyone 50 and up. Now below 50 it gets grayed some. Personally I would still take Avengers 4 for the next few years, but if WD continues its success the breaking point would be sooner rather then later.

 

Captain America is cool to old fogeys. I'm 33 and the first great Cap story I've ever read is that first Brubaker omni. Everything before and everything since is just .

[400yrs]

Cap 4 will always be worth money because it's old and a piece of americana. I think the Cap character is pretty stale.... even considering how much Marvel will be cramming him down our throats here shortly. I mean, yeah, having a super hero around to fight the Red Skull (who should be 100+ by now) and a bunch of other Nazis was cool for several decades following the war. Today, however, Nazis aren't a threat anymore so the character is dated.

 

If the choice is whether to spend 1K on a beater Avengers #4 and a high grade TWD #2, then I'll take the money and buy a beat but complete DD #1 to finish off my collection and would use the leftover cash to buy 6-8 hgh grade copies of Invincible #1.